Commodity report by ways2capital 02 sep 2014

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NCDEX DAILY LEVELS

DALLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 19-SEPT-14 640 633 626 623 619 616 612 605 598

SYBEANIDR 20-OCT-14 3533 3470 3407 3385 3344 3320 3280 3220 3155

RMSEED 19-SEPT-14 3790 3708 3625 3595 3542 3510 3460 3375 3293

JEERAUNJHA 19-SEPT-14 11505 11395 11285 11240 11175 11130 11065 10955 10845

DHANIYA 19-SEPT-14 12296 12156 12016 11948 11876 11808 11736 11596 11456

CASTORSEED 19-SEPT-14 4423 4345 4265 4225 4185 4145 4105 4023 3943

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 19-SEPT-14 680 659 638 629 617 608 596 575 554

SYBEANIDR 20-OCT-14 3620 3530 3440 3401 3353 3312 3264 3175 3086

RMSEED 19-SEPT-14 3867 3659 3650 3610 3540 3500 3435 3327 3210

JEERAUNJHA 19-SEPT-14 11858 11618 11378 11286 11138 11046 10898 10658 10418

DHANIYA 19-SEPT-14 12918 12568 12218 12049 11868 11699 11518 11168 10818

CASTORSEED 19-SEPT-14 4495 4398 4281 4235 4175 4128 4067 3960 3853

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MCX DAILY LEVELS

DALLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 30-SEPT-14 132.65 130.75 128.85 128.15 126.95 126.30 125.05 123.20 121.25

COPPER 28-NOV-14 442 434 426 421 419 414 411 403 395

CRUDE OIL 19-SEPT-14 6003 5914 5825 5795 5736 5706 5647 5558 5469

GOLD 03-OCT-14 29085 28732 28375 28225 28025 27870 27670 27316 26962

LEAD 30-SEPT-14 139.75 138.60 137.50 136.90 136.30 135.70 135.10 133.95 132.90.NATURAL GAS 25-SEPT-14 264 258 251 248 245 241 238 232 225

NICKEL 30-SEPT-14 1165 1152 1141 1135 1130 1124 1119 1108 1091

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 30-SEPT-14 137.35 133.65 130.05 128.75 126.40 125.10 122.75 119.10 115.50

COPPER 28-NOV-14 467 452 436 426 421 411 406 390 374

CRUDE OIL 19-SEPT-14 6035 5934 5833 5799 5732 5697 5631 5530 5429

GOLD 03-OCT-14 29375 28915 28450 28260 27985 27795 27525 27060 26595

LEAD 30-SEPT-14 143 140 138 137 136 135 133 131 129

NATURAL GAS 25-SEPT-14 291 274 258 251 241 234 225 208 192

NICKEL 30-SEPT-14 1192 1172 1154 1141 1132 1121 1112 1092 1072

SILVER 5-SEPT-14 45765 44636 43507 42956 42378 41827 41249 40120 38991

ZINC 30-SEPT-14 148 146 144 143 142 141 140 138 136


MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

✍ INTERNATIONAL NEWS

LME Copper stocks jumped by 0.8 percent on Tuesday. Total inflow in Indian equities and debt markets $29.79 bn till date. U.S. crude stocks declined by 2.1 million barrels last week. German Import Prices dropped by 0.4 percent in the last month.

Economic data - Germany Unemployment rate, CPI; Euro-zone- Confidence Numbers(Economic, Industrial, Consumer and Service), US - Jobless claims, Q2 revised GDP, PersonalConsumption and Pending Home Sales.

SOURCES : Reuters

Indian Currency - The US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.3 percent yesterday on theback of upbeat market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency.Further, estimates of marginal plunge in economic growth in US exerted downside pressure onthe currency.

The Indian Rupee traded on a flat note and appreciated marginally in yesterday’s tradingsession. The currency appreciated on the back of inflow of foreign funds in equities and debtmarkets. The total inflow in the both the markets accounted to around $29.79 billion till date inthe current year. Upbeat domestic market sentiments also acted as a positive factor.

✍ PRECIOUS METALS

In the month of August, gold prices have already declined by more than 2% and looks like thetrend may remain bearish. Gold holdings at the SPDR gold trust, the world’s largest ETF staynear the 800 MT, almost flat for past many weeks. In the meanwhile, global equities tradehigher with gains of more than 1% in a single week is further pulling gold prices lower andlikely that the same trend may continue in the next week. Another major factor that is pullinggold lower is the anticipated cues from Jackson Hole economic symposium which is expectedto focus on an important economic issue that faces the US and world economies. We believelooking at the recent economic development, especially the economic data coming in betterthan expected from the US, it might have incessant negative pressure on gold prices. Besides,the euro and gold which generally shaped by the USD performance are likely to move alongand any further decline in the euro currency or strong appreciation in the USD would weakengold prices. Looking at the above scenario, the commodity may remain depressed in the nearterm wherein we suggest selling from higher levels.

Gold once again had a very shallow day of trade with the commodity trading in a small rangefor most part of the day before closing 0.15% lower to $1283 per ounce mark for activeDecember expiry at Comex.


In India, moderate disconnect continued as local MCX gold prices for October expiry closedlower by 0.4% to Rs 27780 per 10 /Gms. It is likely that Bullion may open marginally positivetoday, as they regain some of the additional lost ground yesterday meanwhile Gold Comex tootrades marginally higher in early Asian trade.

✍ BASE METALS

LME Copper prices slipped by 0.5 percent on 27 Aug Trading session, after a report showedprofit growth at industrial companies in China slowed to 13.5 percent in July from 17.9 percentin June, the fastest rate in seven months. Also, weak German Consumer Climate data coupledwith 0.8 percent gain in inventories exerted downside pressure on prices.

However, expectations of prompt supportive action from Beijing, with officials stepping in toensure the economy achieved its 7.5% annual growth target restricted sharp fall. The red metaltouched an intra day low of $6994/tonne on Wednesday.

On the MCX, red metal prices plunged by 0.7 percent and touched an intra day low ofRs.421.75/kg before closing at Rs.422.9/kg on Wednesday.

✍ ENERGY

Natural gas prices on the NYMEX gained by around 1 percent on bargain buying at lowerlevels while MCX futures gained by around 1.09 percent and closed at Rs.241.40/Mmbtu. EIANatural gas inventories due tonight is expected to show a surplus of 78Bcf of gas.

Oil prices declined on both sides of the Atlantic as expectations of ample supply weighed onprices. Global oil supply is expected to exceed demand this year, cooling prices. Oil futures onboth sides of the Atlantic Basin are on track to post a second monthly decline.

Hopes that the presidents of Russia and Ukraine could reach a ceasefire deal dimmed afterUkraine accused Russia of launching a new military incursion across its eastern border onWednesday. U.S. crude stocks fell 2.1 million barrels last week, more than expected, butCushing inventories rose 508,000 barrels, data from the Energy Information Administrationshowed on Wednesday. On the MCX, crude prices declined by around 0.4 percent in line withweakness in international markets and closed at Rs.5675/bbl.


NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

✍ CHANA

Chana continued to trade weak due to lack of demand .The domestic demand has risen in themandis but that got adversely affected at the higher levels as traders waited for some dipsbefore initiating fresh demand in the mandis. amid rains in Central and North-West Indiasupporting the Kharif Pulses crop prospects kept overall trend weak.

The sowing for Kharif Pulses has picked up over last few weeks and that had been preventingstrong uptrend for Chana rates despite improved demand in mandis. Repeated efforts by theGovt to keep tab on hoarders—mainly for essential Food items are also keeping the uptrendlimited.

As per latest reports of sowing of kharif crops as on 22nd August, kharif sowing area stood at935.06 lakh hectare. It is reported that pulses has been sown in 92.62 lakh ha vs 99.39 lakh hasame time last year.

Higher Pulses production for 2013-14 has been keeping sentiments weak so far. As per 3rdAdvanced crop estimates by Govt of India, India is likely to produce record Foodgrains in2013-14 at 264.38 MT. Record production in Tur(3.38 MT), Chana (9.93MT) and overallPulses at a record 19.57 MT

On International front, Australian Chana production reportedly has fallen by 23%. A fall inDollar vs Re has kept the import cost of Pulses from Myanmar, Australia and Canada lowresulting in further weakening of market sentiments.

✍ RM SEED

RM seed mandis could not sustain the highs as buyers were at bay coupled with bearishspillover effect. However, the supplies are limited and slight demand for meal from exporterswill pull up the markets in the coming weeks. The arrivals remained in the range of 55,000 –65,000 bags of 85Kg each.

As per Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) data bank, the imports of Rape oil aresteadily on the rise and have significantly increased by more than 11 times from 7,943 MT to103,003 MT. Though oil meal exports dipped for the third consecutive month due to rise insoybean prices, but the rapeseed meal has increased 53 per cent to 408,410 tonnes from267,461 tonnes in last four months.

Global production of rapeseed and canola will decline to 68.7 million tons from 69.7 milliontons as. The harvest in Canada, the top export-er, is expected to decrease 20 percent from theprior year to 14.4 million tons. EU output will reach a record 23.54 million tons from 21.25million tons a year earlier amid increasing harvests in Germany, France, Poland and the U.K.Rapeseed prices in EU dropped due to spillover weakness from soybeans.


✍ SOYABEAN / REFI. SOYA

Soy oil prices on Wednesday remained weak on poor buying sentiments in local mandis whichpicked up enough downward sup-port from the bearish international market.

Soybean exports from the U.S. are set to accelerate in the next few months as farmers harvestthe biggest crop. U.S. soybean exports will climb to a record 46.3 million metric tons in the2014-15 marketing season that starts Sept. 1 from 44.65 million tons a year earlier. Globalsoybean output will total 306.7 million tons. US soybean crop is likely to be disposed ofquickly in the first four to six months of the new season as Brazil’s stocks are low. Soybeanprices have dropped 21 percent this year as beneficial U.S. growing weather boosted oilseedand grain development. Oil World estimates U.S. soybean production at 103.85 million tons in2014-15, in line with USDA forecast and 13 percent bigger than a year earlier.

Soybean mandis did open on a steady note with some buying interest shown by crushers.However, the prices will remain under pressure as there has been some good sowing progresscoupled with bearish US markets which has hit a four years levels due to record crop outlookon good weather forecasts.

As per IMD the deficiency rainfall deficiency remained at 18% as on 27th Aug, from southwest monsoon. However, increase in rainfall activity can be seen in during the later part of theweek.

As per Solvent Extractors Association of India the total export of oil meals during April-July2014 is at 721,577 tons compared to 1,038,819 tons i.e. down by 31%. In July 2014 export ofoil meals stood at 115,094 tons com-pared to 182,133 tons in July 2013 i.e. down by 37%.Export of soybean meal greatly reduced in last 3 months due to high cost of soybean in localmarket lead to total disparity for soybean meal in international market.

Global production of oil seeds including soybeans, rapeseed and sunflower will reach a record507.2 million metric tons, 18.1 million tons more than the previous all-time high last year asper Oil world. The stockpiles are likely to remain around 99.6 million tons at the end of 2014-15, 18 percent more than a year earlier. The most outstanding increase in oil seed production isset to occur in the U.S.A., where excellent weather conditions are seen resulting in recordyields per hectare not only in soybeans but also corn. A record oil seed crop has also beengrown in the European Union this year.

Soybean production globally may rise to 306.7 million tons, up from 284.6 million tons in theprior season, with the U.S. crop, the world’s biggest, accounting for 103.85 million tons.


This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow MarketResearch Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates containedherein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have beenobtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of theintended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/CommoditiesResearch opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2CapitalEquity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to beresponsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Researchexpressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissionsin this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation tobuy any securities or commodities.

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Commodity report by ways2capital 02 sep 2014

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Transcript of Commodity report by ways2capital 02 sep 2014