Comments on:Angrisani, Kapteyn, and Meier

“Non-Monetary Job Characteristics and Employment Transitions at

Older Ages”

SSA Retirement Research ConsortiumAnnual Meeting, August 7, 2015

David Weir

University of Michigan

What is this paper trying to tell us?

Non-monetary job characteristics matter

Or, work is not just about the money

What else?

• Which characteristics matter• To which outcomes• From which source of information

What data?

• HRS– Self-reported work status– Self-reported job characteristics– Many other covariates

• Matched at detailed occupation level to O*Net– A compilation of information on “average” job

characteristics in the occupation

What methods?

• Multinomial logit for employment transitions• OLS for intentions/expectations

Transition from FT Employment

• Policy goal is (or should be) to encourage people to stay in FT employment a little longer

• I will focus on just that outcome of transitions, not the details of where people go when they leave FT employment

How does their model do on other things we know about?

55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

ModelActual

Age

Prob

of s

tayi

ng in

FT

wor

k, re

lativ

e to

age

55

A: Pretty well

• Probably should make spline point at cohort-specific NRA and not at age 65 for all

Job characteristics

• Physical abilities decline with age, so more physically demanding jobs are likely to be associated with earlier retirement

• Cognitive abilities decline with age, and technological change (computers) increase demands over time

• Job stress should lead to earlier departure

Estimated Effects of Job Characteristics on Remaining in Full-Time Work

Computer Physical demands

Stress-0.02

-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

HRSO*netHRS | O*netO*net | HRS

Self-report vs “objective”

• Self-report much better than objective on stress– Makes sense that an individual job situation and an

individual’s subjective evaluation are more relevant than some average over many similar jobs

• Physical demands encourage departure– Self-report and objective are similar but objective “beats”

subjective head to head• Not much different on computer use

– Positive effect of computers is perhaps surprising– Without controlling for physical demands, it may just be that

using computers is a proxy for not being physically demanding

What about retirement intentions

• HRS asks about planned retirement age, probabilities of working FT at 62 and 65

• These predict behavior reasonably well and respond to things

Average expected probability of working full-time past age 62, and age 65, for currently employed persons

aged 55-60, 1992-2014

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 20140

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Age 62Age 65

Impact of job characteristics not as clear or consistent

• Computer use raises SP of future work, self-report beats O*net in a close decision

• Physical demands lowers SP only from O*net• Stress lowers SP only from HRS self-report

Next steps

• Estimate effects of job characteristics jointly to isolate unique effects of each

• Think about interactions– Does having a physically demanding job interact

with physical limitations (walking, stooping, lifting, etc)?

– Does having a cognitively demanding job interact with cognitive ability or decline?

– Does job stress interact with depression?

Implications for encouraging longer work lives

• Policy implications not so clear– Not going to subsidize SS benefits or tax rates

according to job characteristics– Not going to regulate employers to make jobs less

physically demanding or give everyone computers– Might want to enforce or expand rules on

accommodation of age-related disability in the workplace, IF there is an interaction between characteristics and physical limitations

Implications for encouraging longer work lives

• Might be some room for advising people how to avoid “premature” retirement

• Recognize mismatch of your aging trajectory and your current job’s demands

• Think about changing jobs earlier to one that will let you work longer (less physically demanding)

• Find ways to manage stress• And let me know when you find it…

THANK YOU

http://hrsonline.isr.umich.edu/