Colliers Residential MarketShare Q2 2011

A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF THE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET IN THE VANCOUVER LOWER MAINLAND

August 2011

MarketShareSECOND QUARTER 2011

SECOND QUARTER 2011

WELCOME TO MarketShare 1

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 2

OVERALL – MARKET SUMMARY 3

MARKET SUMMARIES

Vancouver – Downtown 4

Vancouver – West 5

Vancouver – East 6

Richmond/South Delta/Tsawwassen 7

Burnaby/New Westminster 8

North Shore: North Vancouver & West Vancouver 9

Tri-Cities: Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam & Port Moody 10

Ridge Meadows: Maple Ridge & Pitt Meadows 11

Surrey Central/North Delta 12

South Surrey/White Rock 13

Cloverdale/Langley 14

WHAT TO WATCH 15

TABLE OF

CONTENTS

1SECOND QUARTER 2011

As our team worked through the process of creating the latest edition of MarketShare the media was buzzing with stories on the US debt ceiling crisis and the global economy - I think I have definitely had enough CNN for the summer.

The US is still a major global economic force and continues to draw more

than its share of attention and concern when storms occur. However, the

number of conflicting view points out there with respect to the seriousness

of the situation and the probable impacts create a sea of confusion. What

does seem certain is this: there are significant economic problems in the US

that will have to be addressed in the coming years. Will it affect our market?

It may have a short term effect on some buyers’ confidence but overall

unless there is a complete collapse the impact on our market will be

minimal. On the other hand, if there were similar challenges in Asia and

China in particular we would see a negative effect on our local market.

In my view, there is no reason to believe Chinese immigration and buying

won’t continue to influence our market for the foreseeable future. It would

take a very severe turn in government policy towards immigration to negate

this market trend. Since we have been producing MarketShare demand

from this market has continued to increase pricing in select markets.

However, this demand has primarily impacted a limited number of sub

markets in the Lower Mainland. There is continued demand for all product

types in Vancouver - West, Richmond and Metrotown and for detached

homes and townhome product in South Surrey.

From an overall market perspective the lower mainland market continues to

impress. I must admit upon reading the data collected on the past quarter’s

sales performance my first instinct was to check it again. The pace of sales

was simply astounding. To date nearly 80 percent of last years total volume

has been achieved. Congratulations to all the developers who enjoyed this

success. We know full well the countless hours that go into making a project

a success. Incidentally, the impact of these successes in many areas like

Metrotown warrant additional study independent of the broader market area

they encompass, i.e. Burnaby/New Westminister. As development evolves in

these “micro” communities the gap in pricing and product offering may

vastly change in contrast to the surrounding areas. This trend may alter

how we need to view the market and produce this report.

Finally, having worked in real estate most of my career I have had the

privilege of working in and living in Vancouver while simultaneously being

involved in projects throughout the world. I appreciate the benefit of

having a global perspective informed by rich and ongoing dialogue with

my global colleagues in the business. My colleagues continue to be

impressed with our market and offerings and continue to be proactive in

promoting Vancouver projects in Asia with a strong focus in China. Our

long term view is that this market will be sustainable for the foreseeable

future and we are investing in infrastructure to support this view. We

have commenced work on a website in China that will feature Canadian

properties with an emphasis on the Vancouver and Toronto markets. In

addition, we are also developing a newsletter and electronic magazine

which will showcase select Vancouver properties and be distributed to

our database as well as our immigration and banking partners. We are

also establishing a Private Buyer’s Service abroad to coordinate the

interest we are generating and help funnel these prospective buyers to

projects locally. These investments will be leveraged by our existing

international clients and will be offered more broadly in the future.

We are in uncertain times globally, but have a real estate market locally

that is very much envied. Our long term view of this market remains

unchanged…”we wouldn’t want to be anywhere else.”

I hope you are enjoying your summer and taking time to appreciate family

and friends. And, as always I hope this edition of MarketShare is

enjoyable and informative. We welcome your thoughts and opinions.

Greg Ashley

PRESIDENT AND MANAGING PARTNER, COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL MARKETING

WELCOME TO

MarketShare


Urban Analytics (UAI) is the source for analytical interpretation of relevant real estate market data, trends and strategic recommendations. Our client-focused service model determines the information required, then collects and interprets the data in a timely manner enabling clients to make informed strategic decisions.

Urban Analytics Inc. (UAI) was engaged by Colliers to provide aggregate

data on the multi-family residential real estate market in the Vancouver

Lower Mainland.

The methodology used to collect the data was as follows:

GENERAL PARAMETERSVancouver Lower Mainland refers to the area from West Vancouver to

Aldergrove. At the present time, we have excluded Abbotsford, Chilliwack,

and Mission. And, given the focus on the multi-family market we have

excluded single family home sales from our data collection efforts

MULTI-FAMILY PROJECT DATA – NEW HOME SALESUAI takes a dynamic approach to collecting multi-family new home sales

data. The primary method used to collect information is a personal visit to

each project being actively marketed. In addition to collecting current sales

information, UAI representatives engage on-site sales staff to determine

additional relevant information such as incentive offerings, traffic trends and

active buyer profiles. In all instances active sales range quoted in tables is

defined as “The per square foot sales range in which 75 percent of sales of this

product type occurred”.

CONTEMPLATED MULTI-FAMILY PROJECT DATAUAI also continuously monitors new multi-family developments being

contemplated in the various markets in the Lower Mainland to determine

the level of potential new supply in each area. For the purposes of the

MarketShare publications, UAI contacts various municipal planning

departments along with developers (and/or their representatives) of

proposed new developments to determine the anticipated timing of their

approval and marketing launch.

MULTI-FAMILY PROJECT DATA – RESALEThe resale market provides an important barometer from which to assess

demand and determine pricing for new home projects. Accordingly, UAI

closely monitors the resale market for multi-family homes in order to

identify trends that are relevant to the new home sector. However, the

breadth and depth of product for sale can create findings that are less

than helpful to the new home developer. As a result, UAI recommends

studying only product that is aged ten years or newer and valued at less

than $1.2 million. While it could be argued that limiting the analysis to

newer product (i.e. five years or newer) would be more relevant to the

new home sector, we believe this would limit the sample size and

potentially skew the data towards a specific type of product available in a

small number of specific buildings/projects. In all instances active sales

range quoted in tables is defined as “The active sales range in which 75

percent of sales of this product type occurred”.

We hope you find this aggregate data combined with Colliers’

analysis, observations and opinions thought provoking.

Michael Ferreira

PRINCIPAL, URBAN ANALYTICS INC.

RESEARCH

Methodology


Sales of multi-family residential real estate rapidly accelerated in the Second

Quarter of 2011. A total of 4,839 units were sold in the Second Quarter of 2011

a dramatic 85 percent increase from the same period in 2010 and surpassing

the most active quarter in 2010 by a whopping 78 percent. When compared

with results in the First Quarter of 2011 sales were up 91 percent. To date,

7,366 new units have been sold or 82 percent of last year’s total volume.

New high profile projects in Vancouver - Downtown, Vancouver - West,

Vancouver - East, Richmond, Metrotown, Coquitlam and New Westminster

drove the pace supported by steady absorptions of inventory in most areas.

Even with the number of launches inventory only increased approximately 12

percent over the First Quarter of 2011 to 7,752 units. This is approximately 36

percent more inventory than was on the market in the First Quarter of 2010.

NEW HOME MARKET:As indicated in the table below, in the Second Quarter of 2011, 56 percent of

sales occurred at high rise projects which is a 13 percent increase compared

to the First Quarter of 2011 but a 7 percent decrease compared to the Second

Quarter of 2010. Low rise sales represented 27 percent of sales which is

down 2 percent from the previous quarter. Townhome sales formed the

remaining 17 percent of total sales which decreased 11 per cent from the First

Quarter of 2011 but only 1.5 percent less than Second Quarter 2010.

For the fifth consecutive quarter inventory has increased as developers

showed confidence and continued to bring new offerings to market. And,

active projects increased again this quarter albeit by a moderate 9 percent to a

total of 279.

Overall the second quarter performance was astounding across all product

types as indicated in the following table:

RESALE MARKET:In the Second Quarter of 2011, an estimated 2,525 resale multi-family homes

were sold which represents a 61 percent increase over the First Quarter of

2011 and a 51 percent increase over the Second Quarter of 2010. More

specifically high rise sales were up 30 percent, low rise sales were up 76

percent and townhomes sales were up a whopping 80 percent. Active listings

for all product types were moderately up resulting in a 15 percent increase

overall compared to the First Quarter of 2011. However in comparison to the

Second Quarter of 2010 active listings are down approximately 13 percent

on aggregate even with a 9 percent increase in townhome listings taken into

account. Overall the first quarter sales were distributed across all product

types accordingly:

THE QUARTER AHEAD:Local and Asian investors were active at all high rise successes in the

Second Quarter of 2011. End users were very active at new low rise and

townhome offerings in more suburban areas such as New Westminster,

Burquitlam and South Surrey. This trend is expected to continue in the fall.

Towards the end of the Second Quarter concerns about the market emerged

based on launch results that were less than market expectations in a limited

number of locations, However, significant successes in the later portion of

June somewhat eased these concerns. That being said, recent economic

events in Europe and the US has resulted in a resurgence of “bubble” talk

and developer sentiment seems more cautious than it otherwise might be on

the heels of such a strong quarter.

The quarter ahead is typically the slowest quarter of the year as it

encompasses summer, a season during which investors tend to be less

active locally and with sales centre traffic slowing due to summer vacations.

That said, we do expect sales to meet or modestly exceed absorptions

achieved in the Third Quarter of 2010 - 1,649 new multi-family sales were

generated in that period.

W. Scott Brown

SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, WESTERN CANADA COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL MARKETING

Note To Reader - At the end of this report we have included a commentary on ‘What to Watch’ and invite you to read our thoughts on the future of the Lower Mainland market. In coming editions, we will provide additional insight to the market through our ‘What to Watch’ commentary, critiquing our earlier assumptions and sharing your views.

OVERALL – SUMMARY

VANCOUVER LOWER MAINLAND

HIGH RISE LOW RISE TOWNHOME TOTALS

Total Second Quarter Sales 2,729 1,313 797 4,839

Total Inventory 3,998 2,521 1,233 7,752

Total No. Of Projects 90 94 95 279

HIGH RISE LOW RISE TOWNHOME TOTALS

Total Sales 1,009 644 872 2,525

Total Active Listings 1,929 1,466 1,404 4,799


The ‘green light’ rating for the Vancouver - Downtown market is a tentative one. As the two most recent project launches illustrated, success in this market area is largely dependent on whether a project appeals to the local investor and Chinese buyer group. While Concert sold nearly 80 percent of its SALT project at Hornby and Drake, Cressey achieved more modest absorptions at Maddox.

MARKET SUMMARY

VANCOUVER – DOWNTOWN

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* The success of Concert’s SALT illustrates

that there is demand for condo units without parking as long as they are priced appropriately relative to comparable units with parking.

* There are now six completed projects with a combined 76 units of standing inventory. The anticipated completion of Jameson House and The Beasley buildings could add to this total.

* Launch timing for a number of contemplated new projects is uncertain. These include Townline’s 999 Seymour and Concord’s Panorama.

* The Residences at Hotel Georgia is expected to have completed and merchandised display suites ready for viewing by early 2012.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Sales have increased by 49 percent

compared to the Second Quarter of 2010.

* Listings have decreased by 36 percent compared to the Second Quarter of 2010.

* Prices for both one and two bedroom condominiums have increased by 4 percent compared to the Second Quarter of 2010.

* Anticipate potential price increases due to lower inventory levels.

NEW PROJECT MARKET STATUS

PRODUCT Q2 ACTIVEPROJECTS

Q2SALES

Q2SUPPLY

ACTIVE SALESRANGE ($ PSF)

High Rise 18 232 569 $690 - 710

Low Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a

Townhome n/a n/a n/a n/a

HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME

Maps for illustrative purposesonly. Locations are approximate.

NEW DEVELOPMENTS - Q2 2011

MLS RESALE - Q2 2011MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)

ACTIVE LISTINGS SOLD INVENTORY

PRODUCT LISTINGS MONTHS OF SUPPLY # % OF TOTAL

SOLD* $ PSF AVG. DAYS ON MARKET

ACTIVE SALES RANGE (75% of sales)

High Rise 554 4.6 361 100 $709 37 $370,000 - 855,000

Low Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Townhome n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change* % of Total is the percentage of product sold under ten years of age relative to the total sold for each product category

MLS RESALE BY UNIT TYPEAVG. PRICE $ PSF AVG. PRICE $ PSF

PRODUCT 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOM

High Rise $437,441 $686 $711,842 $722

Low Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a


Townhome n/a n/a n/a n/a

Q2 NEW RELEASES AND PROJECTED Q3 NEW RELEASES

Cardero

St

Thurlow St

Burrard St

Bute St

Bute St

Jervis S

tBrou

ghton St

Nicola S

t

Nicola S

t

Howe S

tHornby

St

Granvill

e St

Seymour S

t

Richard

s St

Homer

St

Hamilto

n St

Cambie

St

Beatty S

t

Bidwell

S

Denman St

Harwood St

W Georgia St

Melville St

Dunsmuir StW Hastings St

W Pender St

BURRARD ST

BRIDGE

GRANVILLE ST

BRIDGE

Cordova StWater

Expo Blvd

Pacific Blvd

K

Comox St

Pacific St

Beach Ave

Nelson StPendrall St

Davie St

GMPLA

CANADAPLACE

BC PLACESTADIUM

Q2

rele

ase

Proj

ecte

d Q

3



MLS RESALE - Q2 2011


Vancouver - West retains its ‘green light’ rating in spite of the increase in unsold inventory and months of supply in the high rise and townhome sectors, which can be attributed to the launch of new projects. Sales activity at various projects illustrated the importance of being appropriately positioned relative to comparable and competing product in Vancouver - West and Vancouver - Downtown. The projects that were appropriately positioned outsold projects that weren’t by a significant margin.

MARKET SUMMARY

VANCOUVER – WEST

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Sales at The Village at False Creek remained

steady, which should result in more product being released during the Third Quarter.

* It will be interesting to gauge buyer response to upcoming project releases and the higher average sale values they are anticipated to seek.

* The land prices being attained for land assemblies along the Cambie Corridor is raising some concern as to the end sale values that will be required and how consumers will respond to these values.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* For high rise product, sales increased by 13

percent and active listings were down 35 percent compared to the same period last year.

* Low rise product experienced similar supply and demand characteristics as the Second Quarter of 2010 (5.3 months of supply).

* Townhomes are currently under supplied in this market (4.4 months of supply).

* Overall prices for all product types increased by 2 percent compared to the Second Quarter 2010.



Q2SALES

Q2SUPPLY


High Rise 17 235 1,066 $740 - 790

Low Rise 3 10 20 $675 - 725

Townhome 5 21 53 $730 - 780

MLS RESALE MARKET STATUS (product less than 10 years of age)





High Rise 161 5.4 90 44 $719 38 $415,000 - 860,000

Low Rise 127 5.3 72 35 $700 34 $442,000 - 850,000

Townhome 64 4.4 44 21 $642 42 $590,000 - 1,075,000




High Rise $448,124 $669 $741,619 $741

Low Rise $441,189 $658 $662,113 $713


Townhome $830,305 $652 $913,953 $629

C.P.R

.

University ofBritish Columbia

70th Ave W Kent Ave NSE Marine

41st Ave

57th Ave W57th A

Fras

er S

t

Mai

n St

33rd Ave

12

Gre at Northe

King Edward Ave

33rd Ave W

Cam

bie

St

Oak

St

GRA

NVI

LLE

STRE

ET

Arb

utus

St

W B

oule

vard

41st Ave W

49th Ave W

Blen

heim

St

12th Ave W

Dun

bar S

t

Crow

n StSW

Marine Dr

16th Ave W

10th Ave W

Wesbrook M

all

4th Ave W

BROADWAY W

Cornwall StPoint Grey Rd

Mac

dona

ld S

t

O

HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


Q2

rele

ase

Proj

ecte

d Q

3


As in the First Quarter of 2011, Vancouver - East is considered a ‘green light’ market. This market continues to benefit from the gentrification of Vancouver as more young professionals are priced out of the Vancouver - West market. It is anticipated that demand for new product in this market will remain strong for the remainder of 2011.

MARKET SUMMARY

VANCOUVER – EAST

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Although townhome product in the market

showed a higher month of supply figure than low rise and high rise product, most of the actively selling townhome projects are nearing the end of their respective sales programs. These developers are comfortable accepting lower absorptions in order to maximize revenues on their remaining units.

* Onni enjoyed a very positive reception to its Central project on Quebec Street. Investor and end user buyers responded to the unique architectural design and the appropriate positioning of the project.

* Polygon’s successful launch at its New Water low rise project has brought much attention and interest to this area,

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* High rise product is currently under supplied in

this market (4.1 months of supply).

* Overall sales figures for all product types increased by 33 percent compared to the Second Quarter of 2010.

* Very low days on the market average for townhomes in this market (19 days on average).



Q2SALES

Q2SUPPLY


High Rise 5 196 147 $625 - 675

Low Rise 13 181 217 $475 - 525

Townhome 4 16 35 $450 - 500







High Rise 91 4.1 66 50 $549 22 $296,000 - 515,000

Low Rise 121 9.1 40 30 $473 42 $273,000 - 454,000

Townhome 48 5.3 27 20 $482 19 $488,000 - 697,000




High Rise $380,755 $553 $486,773 $544

Low Rise $297,394 $504 $405,936 $455


Townhome $580,685 $521 $612,986 $424


Burke St

Kincaid St

Way

burn

e D

r

Collingwood

Eton St

Parker St

Deer Lake PkMoscrop St

Grange St

Canada Wy

Spro

Rupe

rt S

t

Will

ingd

on A

ve

Hol

dom

St

Gilm

ore

Ave

McGill St

Dundas St

HASTINGS STREET E

Renf

rew

St

1st Ave

Venables St

BROADWAY E

Nan

aim

o St

41st Ave E

Clar

k D

r

33rd Ave E

KINGSWAY

12th Ave E

Gre at Northern WyDenman St

Davie St

Pacific St

King Edward Ave

33rd Ave W

TREE

T 41st Ave W

12th Ave W

Grandview Hwy

morial Bridge

HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


Q2

rele

ase

Proj

ecte

d Q

3


Strong demand across all product types continues to match the supply brought to market. Townhome and low rise absorption continues to be strong especially in the Alexandra neighbourhood of West Cambie. While values for concrete condominiums in this market have risen over the same period last year, it should be noted that demand for larger product with higher price points is still modest. While many pre-sale developments in the this market are currently experiencing sales success, future developments are recommended to proceed with conservative pricing expectations.

MARKET SUMMARY

RICHMOND/SOUTH DELTA/TSAWWASSEN

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Price increases for townhomes in Richmond

can be attributed to the increased pricing of single family homes.

* Polygon’s Mayfair Place continues to show strong absorptions as purchasers seek a more affordable alternative to concrete construction in Richmond.

* Townline is expected to commence sales at its site at the former Fantasy Gardens in the Third Quarter.

* Quintet successfully launched its second and final phases in the Second Quarter.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* High rise sales are up slightly and active

listings are down considerably compared to the Second Quarter of 2010.

* Low rise sales and listings totals are similar to the Second Quarter of 2010.

* Lower sales for low rise product can be explained by the large volumes occurring on the pre-sale front (i.e. Mayfair Place).

* Both sales and listings for townhomes have increased compared to the Second Quarter of 2010.

* Townhomes have increased by 7 percent in price compared to the Second Quarter of 2010.



Q2SALES

Q2SUPPLY


High Rise 9 510 425 $550 - 600

Low Rise 7 103 149 $425 - 475

Townhome 19 93 138 $375 - 425

C.N

.R.

Steveston

George Ma

River Rd

H

t

Westminster Hwy

No.

6 R

d

No.

7 R

d

No

8Rd

FRA

SER

- D

ELTA

T

HRU

WAY

Vulc

an

RICHMOND ANNACIS HIGHW

No.

5 R

d

Alderbridge Wy

Granville Ave

River Rd

Blundell Rd

Francis Rd

Williams Rd

Steveston Hwy

Gar

den

City

Rd

No.

4 R

d

Shel

l Rd

Railw

ay A

ve

Gilb

ert R

d

No.

3 R

d

No.

2 R

d

No.

1 R

d

Moncton St

Russ Baker W

y

TI







High Rise 289 7.5 115 37 $526 50 $338,800 - 598,000

Low Rise 122 6 61 20 $447 45 $335,000 - 491,000

Townhome 257 5.9 131 43 $423 34 $523,000 - 712,000




High Rise $354,720 $522 $486,845 $526

Low Rise $323,367 $473 $424,186 $440


Townhome $529,515 $426 $608,100 $423


HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


Q2

rele

ase

Proj

ecte

d Q

3


The ‘green light’ rating assigned to the Burnaby/New Westminster area is primarily due to the continued sales successes of high rise projects launched in Metrotown during the Second Quarter. It should be noted that buyer activity has increased in areas outside of Metrotown, such as North Burnaby, Edmonds and New Westminster. The launch and subsequent sell-out of Wanson’s Eight West low rise project in New Westminster provides proof that effectively designed and positioned pre-sale product can be successful in this market.

MARKET SUMMARY

BURNABY/NEW WESTMINSTER

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Many successful project launches occurred

in both Burnaby and New Westminster in the Second Quarter. Mosaic’s Union low rise project in North Burnaby and Wanson’s Eight West low rise project in New Westminster both sold out within a few weeks of launch.

* Metrotown continues to see strong demand as the neighbourhood experienced over 500 concrete condominium pre-sales in the Second Quarter (primarily at Metroplace and Chancellor).

* Other notable launches include Aragon’s Flow townhomes in Port Royal, Listraor’s Westridge Living townhomes in North Burnaby and Bosa’s Viceroy high rise tower in Uptown New Westminster.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Active listings for all product types are down

compared to the same period last year.

* Strong demand for low rise product as sales have risen by 128 percent compared to the Second Quarter of 2010.

* There is currently less than 3 months supply of low rise product in this market. Anticipate potential price increases for this product type.

* Prices for all product types have stabilized relative to the same period last year.



Q2SALES

Q2SUPPLY


High Rise 17 821 497 $525 - 600

Low Rise 14 308 186 $400 - 475

Townhome 6 56 122 $400 - 450

FRASER RIVER

Burke St

Kincaid St

Way

burn

e D

r

1

w

Collingwood

Metrotown

Edmonds

Sapperton

Whalley

Maillardville

Burquitlam

Clarke

Rd

St. Johns St

Como Lake Ave

Lint

on S

t

Gat

ensb

ury

Rd

Austin Av

nor Rd

116th Ave

United BlvdHartley Ave

Parker St Curtis St

Gaglardi Wy

Ger

ald

Ave

Sper

ling

St

Nor

th R

d

Canada Wy

6th St

10th Ave

8th Ave

6th Ave

Queens Ave

KINGSWAY

Deer Lake PkwyMoscrop St

Gill

ey A

ve

Roya

l Oak

AveImperial St

Rumble St

Oakland St

Edmonds St

Walker Ave

Nel

son

Ave

Marine Dr

Marine Wy

Tyne

St

Boun

dary

Rd

Grange St

Canada Wy

Sprott StWinston StRu

pert

St

Will

ingd

on A

ve

Hol

dom

St

Gilm

ore

Ave

Kent Ave S

andview Hwy

Blue

Mou

ntai

n St

TRANS CANADA HIGHWAY

LOUGHEED HIGHWAY

Simon FraserUniversity

Patullo BridgeStewardson Wy

Colu

mbi

a St

Brune







High Rise 454 5.2 264 47 $467 42 $315,500 - 555,000

Low Rise 145 2.7 164 29 $423 37 $259,900 - 408,870

Townhome 129 3.0 130 23 $391 40 $364,900 - 573,000




High Rise $315,634 $470 $441,100 $467

Low Rise $275,210 $439 $361,204 $416


Townhome $423,237 $418 $524,903 $377


HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


Q2

rele

ase

Proj

ecte

d Q

3


The North Shore retains its ‘yellow light’ rating as we head into the second half of 2011 due to the moderate absorptions being achieved by most projects and the amount of inventory that is slated to enter the market in the coming months. As in most market areas where the Mainland Chinese buyer is not overly active, it is very important for developers to appropriately position their product here. This market area is being primarily driven by end user buyers. The wood frame condominium sector of this market remains the most active.

MARKET SUMMARY

NORTH SHORE: North Vancouver & West Vancouver

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* With District Crossing and the initial phase of

Polygon’s Anderson Walk nearing sell out status, there is some room in this market for additional, well-positioned wood frame condominium product.

* The sales office for Anthem Properties’ Local project will be moved into a Lonsdale Avenue retail space in the Third Quarter to allow for the start of construction.

* The anticipated approval by council of rezoning applications for Citimark/Grosvenor and Wesgroup projects will clear the way for the sales launch of these projects later this fall.

* Townhome supply continues to be extremely limited and little new product is projected for 2011.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Active listings for low rise product currently

on the rise.

* Low price per square foot values for townhomes can be attributed to larger product that caters to the local downsizer.

* 1 bedroom low rise prices have increased by 13 percent compared to the same quarter 2010.

* Balanced supply and demand dynamics for this marketplace.



Q2SALES

Q2 SUPPLY


High Rise 9 25 324 $575 - 625

Low Rise 11 109 353 $500 - 540

Townhome 2 2 1 n/a

Burrard Inlet

1

LynnValley

DeepCove

Mt S

eym

our R

d

Dee

p Co

ve R

d

Mt Seymour Pkwy

Berk

ley

Rd

ne Dr

HWAY

15th St

r

Capi

lano

Rd

Edgemont Blvd

Welch St

Larson Rd

Del

broo

k

29th St E

Gra

nd B

lvd

E

Broo

ksba

nk A

ve

Mountain H

wyEsplanade E Main St Riverside D

r W

Riversi

de Dr E

Esplanade W

Lons

dale

Ave

Ches

terfi

eld

Ave

St G

eorg

es A

ve

13th St W

Braemar Rd

Mou

ntai

n H

wy

Lynn Valley Rd

Lillo

oet

3rd St W

3rd St E

Hyannis Dr

Harbourside Dr

Harbourside Pl

F

ell

Ave

Keith Rd E

Dollarton HwyOld Dollarton Rd

Iron Workers M

emorial Br

Ave

Rd







High Rise 94 7.8 36 37 $655 53 $394,000 - 860,000

Low Rise 98 8.6 34 35 $535 35 $359,900 - 599,900

Townhome 56 6 28 29 $405 45 $482,200 - 825,000




High Rise $458,792 $648 $721,226 $653

Low Rise $416,870 $546 $499,801 $532


Townhome $525,111 $477 $778,100 $387


HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


Q2

rele

ase

Proj

ecte

d Q

3


Tri-Cities has been upgraded to a ‘green light’ rating due to the successful launches of new projects. However, developers seeking to launch new projects in this market in the coming months should be cautioned that this market remains price-sensitive. Actively marketed projects in Port Coquitlam have been experiencing slower absorption than Coquitlam and Port Moody.

MARKET SUMMARY

TRI-CITIES: Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam & Port Moody

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* The recent success of Mosaic’s Georgia

project in the Burquitlam neighbourhood indicates buyers here are anticipating construction of the Evergreen Line to proceed in the foreseeable future.

* The successful launch of Cressey’s M-Two project at Coquitlam Centre shows there is demand for new and appropriately positioned concrete condominium product – particularly from Mainland Chinese investors.

* Demand for new townhome product in the Burke Mountain neighbourhood continues to be driven by local end user buyers.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* While active listings for high rise product are

down compared to the Second Quarter of 2010, it is still a buyer`s market for this product type.

* Townhome sales are up by 77 percent compared to the Second Quarter of 2010.

* Prices for all product types have stabilized relative to the same period last year.

* Low rise and townhome product make up 80 percent of the newer multi-family sales in this market.



Q2SALES

Q2 SUPPLY


High Rise 9 204 473 $410 - 440

Low Rise 9 127 260 $340 - 390

Townhome 6 86 153 $285 - 335

C.P.R.

7

Maillardville

Burquitlam

WestwoodPlateau

Victoria Dr

Prairie Ave

Ceda

r DrCo

ast M

erid

ian

Rd

Kingsway Ave

Broa

dway

St

Shau

ghne

ssy S

t

Panorama Dr

John

son

St

Landsdowne D

r

Pine

tree

Wy

iver

Rd

LOUG

Ioco Rd

April

Rd

Heritage Mountain Blv d

Clarke

Rd

St. Johns St

Como Lake Ave

Mar

iner

Wy

Lint

on S

t

Gat

ensb

ury

RdAustin Ave

Blue

Mou

ntai

n St

Ave ssy

St







High Rise 192 9.9 58 20 $402 48 $299,000 - 443,500

Low Rise 222 5.5 121 42 $344 60 $260,000 - 378,800

Townhome 149 4.1 110 38 $307 34 $364,900 - 535,000




High Rise $290,991 $425 $386,133 $399

Low Rise $238,339 $354 $332,797 $344


Townhome $373,847 $313 $473,198 $312


HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


Q2

rele

ase

Proj

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d Q

3


The Ridge Meadows market has been upgraded to a ‘ yellow light’ rating due to increased sales activity in the high rise and townhome sectors. Significant price reductions at the Solaris high rise project in Pitt Meadows resulted in substantial sales activity this past quarter. However, this increased sales activity does not justify any new high rise product releases in Ridge Meadows for the foreseeable future. Developers should note that this market remains very price-sensitive and projects must be appropriately positioned if they are to achieve desired absorptions.

MARKET SUMMARY

RIDGE MEADOWS: Maple Ridge & Pitt Meadows

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Sales activity at Portrait Homes’ Brighton

townhome project remained very positive as entry level family buyers continue to respond to this aesthetically appealing and appropriately positioned product.

* Absorptions of low rise condominium product remains moderate at best, which illustrates there is little justification for any substantial increase in new low rise supply here in the foreseeable future.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* While sales of low rise product have doubled

compared to the same period last year, it continues to be a strong buyer`s market for this product type.

* Low rise prices have decreased by 6 percent compared to the same period last year.

* Townhomes are fairing much better in this market than low rise condominiums and represent nearly a third of the total multi-family sales.



Q2SALES

Q2 SUPPLY


High Rise 1 72 84 $275 - 325

Low Rise 3 9 38 $250 - 300

Townhome 6 56 151 $200 - 250

C.N.R.

7

PITT MEADOWSAIRPORT

Hammond Rd

Fraser Wy

128th Ave

hS

Nea

ves

Rd

Laity

St

216t

h St

River Rd

203r

d St

207t

h St

Ears

Brid

ge

104th Ave

108th Ave

Perimeter Rd

Woo

lridg

e Rd

ingsway Ave

Broa

dway

St

LOUGHEED HIGHWAY

Dewdney Trunk Rd

Har

ris R

d

LASD

BARNSTONISLAND







High Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Low Rise 119 15.5 23 26 $254 193 $180,000 - 317,500

Townhome 79 3.7 64 74 $210 70 $301,000 - 425,000




High Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a

Low Rise $189,424 $261 $264,192 $247


Townhome $302,922 $231 $361,962 $212


HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


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ase

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3


The Surrey Central/North Delta market has seen an increase in both end-user oriented townhome product as well as investor oriented low rise product. Although the developers in the Central City marketplace are attempting to draw end-user buyers from other parts of Metro Vancouver, the primary purchaser for this area continues to be the investor. Nonetheless, this market is a ‘yellow light’ as there is a large amount of unsold product in addition to the upcoming supply of product

MARKET SUMMARY

SURREY CENTRAL/NORTH DELTA

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Much of the activity in the low rise market

for the Second Quarter occurred at projects in Central City and Newton that offered pre-sale incentives targeted at the investor and first time buyer.

* Activity has increased particularly in the South Newton townhome market as the launch of Fairborne’s Sequoia and ongoing success of other surrounding projects has increased absorptions in this area.

* Polygon’s Eclipse townhome project in Sunstone and Vesta’s Vantage townhome project in Fleetwood both experienced strong absorptions during their respective the Second Quarter launches.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Townhomes continue to be the dominant

product type in this market, representing 61 percent of the newer multi-family sales.

* High rise product continues to struggle in this market. Only 13 transactions were recorded in the Second Quarter of 2011.

* Strong buyer`s market for both high rise and low rise product.



Q2SALES

Q2SUPPLY


High Rise 3 97 346 $350 - 400

Low Rise 14 158 501 $275 - 325

Townhome 17 183 256 $210 - 260

C.N.R.

B.N.R.

SOUTHERN RAILWAY

91

91A

99A

Sullivan

SurreyCentre

Newton

SouthWestminster

Guildford

Clover64th Ave

168t

h St

176t

h St

hS

80th Ave PACI

FIC

HIG

HW

AY

88th Ave

Ha

160t

h St

92nd Ave

96th Ave

104th Ave

156t

h St

108th Ave

eter Rd

58th Ave 48th

St

148t

h St

64th Ave 68th Ave

72nd Ave

76th Ave76th Ave

Scot

t Rd

120t

h St

KIN

G

GEO

RGE

HIG

HW

AY

80th Ave

Kitson Pkwy

72nd Ave 140t

h St

144t

h St

152n

d St

84th Ave

128t

h St

112t

h St

84th Ave

Nordel W

y

th S

t

ANN

ACISH

IGH

WAY

88th Ave

92nd Ave

96th Ave

132n

d St

100th AveFRASER HIGHWAY

Scott

Rd

100th Ave

104th Ave

108th AveGro

Derwent Wy

Alex Fraser Bridge

Queensborough Bridgen Ave

Newton Rd

ANNACISISLAND







High Rise 61 14.1 13 7 $377 59 $216,000 - 288,000

Low Rise 207 10.7 58 32 $275 71 $176,331 - 286,500

Townhome 260 7 112 61 $220 45 $303,000 - 407,500




High Rise $223,715 $388 $298,929 $370

Low Rise $185,145 $295 $256,991 $268


Townhome $309,277 $248 $348,349 $226


HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


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rele

ase

Proj

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d Q

3


The South Surrey/White Rock market has been upgraded to a ‘green light’ rating as a strong influx of demand continues to drive inventory levels down. However, the high rise sector is seeing some resistance to current pricing levels. The new retail and service amenities provided has helped both townhome and low rise projects in the vicinity attract a wide range of purchasers. Townhome product continues to attract a larger proportion of Asian purchasers from Richmond, while low rise product is attracting an increasing number of local downsizers.

MARKET SUMMARY

SOUTH SURREY/WHITE ROCK

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Both ground-oriented townhome and low

rise product continues to generate the majority of new housing product demand. Purchasers from Richmond are buying due to South Surrey’s relative value and affordability.

* Increased activity in the low rise sector is primarily due to the successful launch of the Edgewater project and renewed buyer activity at Larco’s Morgan Crossing project.

* South Surrey continues to attract the Mainland Chinese buyer due to the quality of its schools and convenient access to new retail amenities.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Inflated months of supply figures for high rise

product can be primarily attributed to resale units at Miramar Village.

* While high rise and low rise sales were similar to the same period last year, townhome sales are up 60 percent.

* Lower per square foot values for townhome sales compared to the Second Quarter of 2010 can be attributed to a recent preference for larger townhomes in this market primarily by Asian purchasers from Richmond and Mainland China.

Mud Bay

B.N.R.

99

Sunnyside

Semiahmoo

176t

h St

172n

d St

Campbell Riv

16th Ave

168t

h St

8th Ave

Buena Vista Ave

152n

d St

24th Ave

20th Ave

28th Ave

32nd Ave

20th Ave

40th Ave

160t

h St

Marine Dr

North Bluff Rd12

8th

St

20th Ave124t

h St

Bayvie

w St

24th Ave

28th Ave

140t

h St

Cres cent R

d 32nd Ave

40th Ave







High Rise 33 16.5 6 6 $487 65 $425,900 - 610,000

Low Rise 90 9.6 28 27 $364 39 $265,000 - 376,743

Townhome 80 3.5 69 67 $264 53 $366,000 - 750,000




High Rise $330,000 $502 $564,360- $485

Low Rise $279,969 $376 $344,113 $360


Townhome $484,274 $296 $475,262 $265


HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME




Q2SALES

Q2 SUPPLY


High Rise 2 0 67 $550 - 600

Low Rise 8 159 212 $300 - 350

Townhome 13 140 163 $250 - 300

Q2

rele

ase

Proj

ecte

d Q

3


This market continues to be driven by value-conscious end-users, as well as an emerging contingent of local downsizers. Due to the large amount of unsold and upcoming inventory, this market has retained its ‘yellow light’ rating for the Second Quarter of 2011. As the primary buyer is an end-user, townhome projects that offer product with closings within the zero to six month range have a competitive advantage in this marketplace.

MARKET SUMMARY

CLOVERDALE/LANGLEY

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* The launch of Quadra Home’s Yorkson Creek

master-planned community was the most notable of the quarter. Although representatives for the project cite that a large portion of the purchaser profile consists of local first time buyers and downsizers there is speculation that developer insiders and investors also contributed to the successful launch.

* Other notable Second Quarter launches include Parklane’s Winchester townhome project in Murrayville as well as Sandhill’s Elements low rise project in Langley.

* Most pre-sale product offerings aside from Yorkson Creek are continuing to experience modest absorptions due to the lack of investor activity and buyer urgency.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:* Low rise product in this market continues to

be well supplied (15 months of supply).

* Townhome sales have increased by 59 percent compared to the same period last year.

* Townhomes represent nearly 80 percent of newer multi-family sales in this market.

* Prices for low rise and townhomes in this market are consistent with the same period last year.



Q2SALES

Q2 SUPPLY



Low Rise 12 149 585 $280 - 330

Townhome 17 144 161 $225 - 275

C.N.

R.

1

17

10

Glov

er R

d

r

240t

hSt

Brow

nRd

88th Ave

Telegraph Tr

216t

h St

To

pham

R

200t

h St

72nd Ave72nd Ave

208t

h St

216t

h St

Glover

Rd

Logan Ave

HWY 10

BYPASS

St56th Ave

60th Ave

176t

h St

184t

h St

192n

d St

PACI

FIC

HIG

HW

AY

Harvie

Rd

92nd Ave

64th Ave19

2

MCMILL IS







High Rise n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Low Rise 215 15 43 22 $290 57 $196,000 - 302,000

Townhome 282 5.4 157 79 $216 46 $293,000 - 418,500

Change over the last quarter: Increase, Decrease, No Change




Low Rise $203,614 $294 $285,031 $288


Townhome $292,658 $249 $353,394 $214


HIGH RISE

LOW RISE

TOWNHOME


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ase

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d Q

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The end of the Third Quarter and Fourth Quarter will see a number of launches in areas such as the Cambie Corridor, South East False Creek, Chinatown, UBC, Central Lonsdale, Richmond and Burnaby’s Metrotown and Brentwood areas as well as SFU. However, the total number of launches may be less than the first half of the year and/or developers may elect to bring smaller phased offerings to market.

LAST QUARTER

We expected a brisk quarter and suggested the possibility of 12,000 units in

total sales for 2011 and the Second Quarter performance supports this view.

We do, however, expect a more “normal” Third Quarter followed by a strong

Fourth Quarter. That said, we do not predict Fourth Quarter sales

surpassing the volume achieved in the Second Quarter of 2011.

We also predicted that decisions on controversial projects or policies re:

development in the City of Vancouver would likely be delayed or deferred in

the run up to municipal elections this fall. This didn’t prove true with respect

to PCI as it gained the go ahead for its Marine Gateway transit oriented

development and for a new development at 70th and Granville.

With price escalations in specific markets across the Lower Mainland we

continue to expect additional sales and development activity in the Eastern

Fraser Valley.

Our conversations with developers suggest that the sentiment in the

development community is more cautious than in the past year. Global

economic events and their impact are the primary root of this concern.

While the situation in the US is worrisome the probable impact – if any – on

our market is difficult to determine at this time.

LOOKING AHEAD

Looking ahead to the Third and Fourth Quarters of 2011 and beyond we

expect:

* Third Quarter 2011 sales to be roughly in line with Third Quarter performance of 2010.

* Continued efforts to differentiate product from an architectural and design perspective thus creating innovative and attractive living spaces that

should attract investors, renters and end users alike at greater rates of absorption over undifferentiated alternatives.

* Continued Asian immigration and investment demand.

* Developers launching new projects in Greater Victoria attracting renewed interest from potential retirees, quasi recreational buyers and first time buyers. Developers will also continue to pursue opportunities in Calgary where there is less competition for sites and where energy related investments are expected to drive the economy despite negative economic events in the US.

Finally, there are a number of the questions we at Colliers are asking

ourselves as we enter the Third Quarter and Fourth Quarter of 2011:

HOW WILL THE SECOND HALF OF 2011 COMPARE TO THE QUICK START TO THE YEAR?Will Third Quarter sales surprise anyone? Will the Fourth Quarter be the most active quarter of the year as in years prior?

WHAT WILL THE OUTCOME OF THE HST REFERENDUM BE?How will developers respond? Consumers respond?

WHAT WILL BE THE OUTCOME OF THE FORTHCOMING MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS?What will it mean for the future development of key market areas

throughout the Lower Mainland and the need for additional transit

oriented and more affordable housing?

WHAT WILL THE IMPACT OF THE US DEBT CEILING AGREEMENT HAVE ON OUR ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE MARKET HERE IN VANCOUVER?Many pundits believe our economy and markets are more resilient and

will continue to be. Others are starting to preach doom and gloom to

anyone who will listen. Who is right?

WHAT DO YOU THINK?As always, we value your input. If you have views you’d like to share and/

or questions that you would like to see answered in future editions please

contact us directly at [email protected].

W. Scott Brown

SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, WESTERN CANADA COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL MARKETING

RESIDENTIAL MARKET SUMMARY

WHAT TO WATCH

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL MARKETING SERVICES

WESTERN CANADAW. Scott Brown, Senior Vice President Suite 1900, 200 Granville StreetVancouver, British ColumbiaCanada V6C 2R6 MAIN +1 604 681 4111 DIRECT +1 604 661 0877 EMAIL [email protected]

EASTERN CANADAChristine Brennan, Vice President One Queen Street East, Suite 2200Toronto, OntarioCanada M5C 2Z2 MAIN +1 416 777 2200 DIRECT +1 416 643 3462 EMAIL [email protected]

www.colliers.com

www.urbananalytics.ca

urbanANALYT ICS INC

This document has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising and general information only. Colliers International makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, regarding the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers International excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from. This publication is the copyrighted property of Colliers International and /or its licensor(s). © 2010. All rights reserved

Vancouver Lower Mainland: West Vancouver to Aldergrove. Excludes Abbotsford, Chilliwack, and Mission. Resale Data: MLS sold for attached product (high rise, low rise, and townhomes) built within the last ten years for units valued less that $1.2 million. Single family sales are excluded from the report.

Colliers Residential MarketShare Q2 2011

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Transcript of Colliers Residential MarketShare Q2 2011