Cognitive startups 20160708 v7

Jim Spohrer (IBM)

Singularity University – NASA Research Park, Mountain View, CA

Friday July 8, 2016http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/cognitive-startups-20160708-v6

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Startup Opportunities for Cognitive Systems

$5M Prize

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© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional

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I have…

Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?

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IBM Cloud Bluemix:Watson APIs are growing…

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So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access

Societal Grand Challenges

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Solving these would mean we are smarter, but would they mean we are wiser?

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IBM Research – AlmadenSan Jose, CA USA

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IBM in Silicon Valley:From Punch Cards….

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Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development

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On August 22, 1943, 105 men, women and children, among them 43 IBM employees, alighted from a special train that carried them across the continent to establish new homes and the new IBM Card Manufacturing Plant Number 5 at 16th and St. John Streets, San Jose, CA.



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IBM in Silicon Valley:To Brain Chips….



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IBM Research, Patents, Data, Cognitive

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MachineLearning

NaturalLanguageProcessing

HighPerformanceComputing

KnowledgeRepresentationand Reasoning

QuestionAnswering

UnstructuredInformation


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Cognitive Build

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I have…

Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?

Learning to program:My first program

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Early Computer Science Class:Watson Center at Columbia 1945

Jim Spohrer’sFirst Program 1972

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Fast Forward 2016:Consider this…

Microsoft CaptionBot June 19, 2016

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Microsoft CaptionBot June 20, 2016

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IBM Image Tagging

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Courses

• 2015– “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.”– 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy– 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject

• 2025– “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.”– Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week

• 2035– “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.”– Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day– Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves

• 2055– “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.”– Most people have 100 digital workers.

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1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055

Can better service help us be wiser?

Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach

What exists in 2016?

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360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000

Reality 2.0 Service Platform:polite cognitive mediators (CM1,CM2)

do not interrupt people (P1,P2)

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Service Platform

CM2

P2

CM1

P1

100x

100x 100x

By 2035, T-Shaped Makers with great Building Blocks and Cognitive Mediators

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Empathy & Teamwork

secto

r

regio

n/cu

lture

discip

line

De

pth

Breadth

STEM

Liberal Arts

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What might Reality 2.0 look like?

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How fast is Reality 2.0 approaching?

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What might it look like?

Computing: Then, Now, Projected

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2035

2055

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Wise Service System:All entities’ in networkuse cognitive mediatorsto enhance value co-creation interactions

Cognitive Mediators:Cognitive systems with deep knowledge of both customer (user) and provider (expert)as co-creators of win-win value

Entity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions

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Cognitive Mediatorsfor all people in all roles

Occupations = Many Tasks

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Watson Discovery Advisor

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Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014.URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/

User Models

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“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better”

Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing

Energy Construction ICT Retail

Finance Healthcare Education Government

Two assertions

• Machines seem to be getting smarter fast.

– Agree/disagree?

• People do not seem to be getting wiser fast.

– Agree/disagree?

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Homo Sapiens means Wise Man: True/False?


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What is Industry 4.0?

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History of the idea: Mirror Worlds

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Why is this relevant?

I am still very skeptical… but tell me more….

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Managers: Courage Required….

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Talent required, but…

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Industry 4.0

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CyberPhysical Systems?

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Industry 4.0

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Yesterday: Servitization

• Rolls Royce: “Power By The Hour”

Tomorrow: Servitization

• Start with any traditional product that is sold to customers• Make the product part of a smart/wise service system

– Instrument it (sensors) – Internet of Things/Everything– Set-up an intelligent operation center to monitor all products’

performance across their life-cycles– Use big data analytics to determine how to improve product

performance, efficiency, maintenance, etc.– Offer customer the “product-performance-as-a-service” with

financing/Internet of Service– Customer benefits from cost-savings, predictability– Provider benefits margin-improvements, predictability

• Every product becomes a platform technology (a vehicle for service innovation) for innovative university startups

Vision: MMaaRRSS

• Modular Manufacturing as a Regional Recirculation Service System

– “I am the stuff that will be made into product X for customer Y.”

– Stuff = Material, Energy, and Information Flows

– Minimize transport costs (for products and waste)

• The Vision: Circular Economy (~4 minutes)

In Summary

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“A service scienceperspective considersthe evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation andcapability co-elevationinteractions, and their capabilities, constraints,rights, and responsibilities.”

Cognitive SystemsEntities

Service SystemsEntities With

CognitiveMediators

Add Rights &Responsibilities

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Explain external phenomena

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Explain internal phenomena

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Explainvalue co-creationphenomena

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Physics Chemistry Biology

Neuroscience Psychology ArtificialIntelligence

Engineering Management PublicPolicy

Education Design Humanities

Natural Systems

Cognitive Systems

Service Systems

Sciences provide…• Frameworks for people to ask and answer

questions systematically

• Explanations with instructions on “how to re-do”

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Kline: Conceptual Foundation of Multidisciplinary Thinking -“To our children and children’s children, to whom we elders owe an explanation of the worldthat is understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.”

Proenneke:Alone in the Wilderness -To do a thorough testing,should each generationbe required to rapidly rebuildfrom scratch?A re-makers movement?

Some paths to becoming 64x smarter:Improving learning and performance

• 2x from Learning sciences (methods)– Better models of concepts – Better models of learners

• 2x from Learning technology (tools)– Guided learning paths– Elimination of “thrashing”

• 2x from Quantity effect (overlaps)– More you know, faster you go– Advanced organizers

• 2x from Lifelong learning (time)– Longer lives and longer careers– Keeps “learning-mode” activated

• 2x from Early learning (time)– Start earlier: Challenged-based approach– STEM-2D in K-12 (SSME+DAPP Design of Smart Service Systems)

• 2x from Cognitive systems (performance support)– Technology & Infrastructure Interactions– Organizations & Others Interactions

Next Generation:Future-Ready T-Shaped Adaptive Innovators

Many disciplinesMany sectors

Many regions/cultures(understanding & communications)

Deep

in o

ne se

ctor

Deep

in o

ne re

gion

/cultu

re

Deep

in o

ne d

isciplin

e

Brief History of AI

1956 – Dartmouth Conference1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds1981 – Japanese 5th Generation1988 – Expert Systems Peak1990 – AI Winter1997 – Deep Blue1997 – 2011 Real-World2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute2014 – Watson Business Unit &

True North Brain Chip2015 – “Cognition as a Service”

on IBM Bluemix

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Cognitive Assistants for all occupations are beginning to appear

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The Maker Movement & Open Source Ecology

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Future of Skills

Assisting individuals and organizations to close their service innovation skills gap

and co-create wiser service systems empowering employees, customers, citizens

with cognitive mediatorsin the collaborative service economy

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Dedication: Doug EngelbartFather of the mouse and

augmentation theory

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1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055

Can better service help us be wiser?

Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach

“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better”

Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing

Energy Construction ICT Retail

Finance Healthcare Education Government

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Cognitive startups 20160708 v7

Education

Transcript of Cognitive startups 20160708 v7