Coastal Inundation - WordPress.com 50 2.54 0.11 1 100 2.62 0.08 ... Upper Storm Tide (worst case)...
Transcript of Coastal Inundation - WordPress.com 50 2.54 0.11 1 100 2.62 0.08 ... Upper Storm Tide (worst case)...
Photo: Sugar Loaf Wharf, Coromandel. Jan 5 2014, Stuart Crawley, WRC
Coastal Inundation
An Overview for TCDC
Rick Liefting
Team Leader Regional Hazards and Environmental Compliance
Integrated Catchment Management
Waikato Regional Council
What we will be covering……
• Coastal inundation concepts
• Event frequency (how big, how often?)
• Coastal Inundation Tool
• Current and proposed updated MfE guidance
• WRC’s role in coastal inundation
Coastal Inundation
• Inundation along the coast and within estuaries caused by:
• Astronomical Tides
• Climate (sea temperature changes)
• Storm Surge – wind set up and Barometric pressure (1 HPa = 1 cm)
• Storm Tide = Astronomical Tides + Storm Surge
• Wave effects
• Wave Set up (‘static’ water level along the coast)
• Wave Run up (‘Swash’ of wave up the beach/coast)
• Effects of Climate Change
• Sea level rise
• Increased frequency and Intensity of storm and wave events
Astronomical Tides
• Relatively easy to obtain and are district wide• Tide range varies
• Vertical datum is based on Astronomical tides – Mean Sea
Level.
• Moturiki VD 1953 (MVD)
• Auckland VD 1946 (+ 0.9 mm w.r.t MVD)
• Tararu Local VD 1952 (+ 128 mm w,r,t MVD)
• Sea level have been increasing at ~1.7 mm/year
• Therefore, add ~ 0.1m to obtain current MSL.
Assessment of Coastal Inundation Hazard• Currently no regional or district wide assessment of
Coastal inundation hazard or risk
• Some site specific assessments –(Resource
Consents)
• Determination of ‘Storm Tide’ can be under taken
at a ‘district’ level (i.e. East coast Coromandel)
• Wave effects are tricky to predict and are very site
specific
• LiDAR of coastal area up to 20 m elevation
Assessment of Coastal Inundation Hazard
• ‘Static water’ level = Tides + Storm + Climate+ SLR• Affects all coastal areas (i.e. Inland from the coast)
• Relatively easy to assess and map
• ‘Dynamic water level’ = Wave Set up/Run up• Affects the coastal margins only
• Open coast vs inland coast (estuaries/Harbours)
• Landward extent variable depending on topography and
roughness
• Very site specific (compare Tairua vs Pauanui)
Event Frequency
• The size of an event is based on the frequency or
probability of the event occurring over a period of
time.
• Based on measured/historical information.
• Average Return Interval– Frequency that an
event of a certain size will occur (e.g. 100 y ARI)
• Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) –
probability that an event will be exceeded in any
one year (e.g. 1% AEP)
Event Frequency
Return Period (y)
Annual ExceedanceProbability
(AEP)
Time Period (y) - approx
2 5 10 20 50 100 200
2 50.0% 75% 97% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
5 20.0% 36% 67% 89% 99% 100% 100% 100%
10 10.0% 19% 41% 65% 88% 99% 100% 100%
20 5.0% 10% 23% 40% 64% 92% 99% 100%
50 2.0% 4% 10% 18% 33% 64% 87% 98%
100 1.0% 2% 5% 10% 18% 39% 63% 87%
200 0.5% 1% 2% 5% 10% 22% 39% 63%
Event Frequency
Return Period (y)
Annual ExceedanceProbability
(AEP)
Time Period (y) - approx
2 5 10 20 50 100 200
2 50.0% 75% 97% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
5 20.0% 36% 67% 89% 99% 100% 100% 100%
10 10.0% 19% 41% 65% 88% 99% 100% 100%
20 5.0% 10% 23% 40% 64% 92% 99% 100%
50 2.0% 4% 10% 18% 33% 64% 87% 98%
100 1.0% 2% 5% 10% 18% 39% 63% 87%
200 0.5% 1% 2% 5% 10% 22% 39% 63%
Event Frequency
Return Period (y)
Annual ExceedanceProbability
(AEP)
Time Period (y) - approx
2 5 10 20 50 100 200
2 50.0% 75% 97% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
5 20.0% 36% 67% 89% 99% 100% 100% 100%
10 10.0% 19% 41% 65% 88% 99% 100% 100%
20 5.0% 10% 23% 40% 64% 92% 99% 100%
50 2.0% 4% 10% 18% 33% 64% 87% 98%
100 1.0% 2% 5% 10% 18% 39% 63% 87%
200 0.5% 1% 2% 5% 10% 22% 39% 63%
Event Frequency
Return Period (y)
Annual ExceedanceProbability
(AEP)
Time Period (y) - approx
2 5 10 20 50 100 200
2 50.0% 75% 97% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
5 20.0% 36% 67% 89% 99% 100% 100% 100%
10 10.0% 19% 41% 65% 88% 99% 100% 100%
20 5.0% 10% 23% 40% 64% 92% 99% 100%
50 2.0% 4% 10% 18% 33% 64% 87% 98%
100 1.0% 2% 5% 10% 18% 39% 63% 87%
200 0.5% 1% 2% 5% 10% 22% 39% 63%
Event Frequency
Return Period (y)
Annual ExceedanceProbability
(AEP)
Time Period (y) - approx
2 5 10 20 50 100 200
2 50.0% 75% 97% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
5 20.0% 36% 67% 89% 99% 100% 100% 100%
10 10.0% 19% 41% 65% 88% 99% 100% 100%
20 5.0% 10% 23% 40% 64% 92% 99% 100%
50 2.0% 4% 10% 18% 33% 64% 87% 98%
100 1.0% 2% 5% 10% 18% 39% 63% 87%
200 0.5% 1% 2% 5% 10% 22% 39% 63%
Wave surge Whitianga – March 2015• https://www.facebook.com/TheInformerMB/videos/
376127242571144/
Tararu Tide Gauge (Firth of Thames)
AEP
(%)
ARI
(years)
Water
level (m)
Diff
(m)
39 2 2.20
18 5 2.30 0.1
10 10 2.35 0.05
5 20 2.43 0.08
2 50 2.54 0.11
1 100 2.62 0.08
0.5 200 2.71 0.09
• Extreme Storm
Tide analyse
(NIWA 2015)
Tararu Tide Gauge (Firth of Thames)
AEP (%)
ARI
(years)
Water
level (m)
Diff
(m)
39 2 2.20
18 5 2.30
10 10 2.35 20 y 100 y
5 20 2.43
0.19
64% 99%
2 50 2.54 33% 87%
1 100 2.62 18% 63%
0.5 200 2.71
• Extreme Storm
Tide analyse
(NIWA 2015)
Tararu Tide Gauge (Firth of Thames)
AEP (%)
ARI
(years)
Water
level (m)
Diff
(m)
39 2 2.20
18 5 2.30
10 10 2.35 20 y 100 y
5 20 2.43
0.19
64% 99%
2 50 2.54 33% 87%
1 100 2.62 18% 63%
0.5 200 2.71
• Extreme Storm
Tide analyse
(NIWA 2015)
Tararu Tide Gauge (Firth of Thames)
AEP (%)
ARI
(years)
Water
level (m)
Diff
(m)
39 2 2.20
18 5 2.30
10 10 2.35 20 y 100 y
5 20 2.43
0.19
64% 99%
2 50 2.54 33% 87%
1 100 2.62 18% 63%
0.5 200 2.71
• Extreme Storm
Tide analyse
(NIWA 2015)
Better way to inform about event frequency?• Niwa (Scott Stephens) doing some great work to
determine:
“How many times will this place get affected”
And
“How many more times with Climate Change”
• Provides better context in terms of assessing
Risk as Acceptable/Tolerable/Intolerable
What is it?
Web based tool that allows users to
explore present day and future
susceptibility of coastal inundation
from tides and storm tides along
Waikato coastlines.
Why do we need it?• High demand for information on potential
effects of present day and future coastal
inundation levels.• Public
• Local councils
• Insurance
• Life line utilities
• Difficult to visualise ‘a number’ and explore
scenarios
• Emergency Management
Low air
pressure
On shore
winds
What does it show?
Wave
Effects
Present Day Coastal Water Level Estimates Tide Model and Tide Gauges
Storm
Effects Lower Storm Tide (semi annual)
Upper Storm Tide (worst case)
Max Tide
MHWS
Datum (Moturiki Vertical Datum 1953)
Tide
Effects
X
What does it show?Future Coastal Water Levels Sea Level Rise added to Present Day Values
Storm
Effects Lower Storm Tide (semi annual)
Upper Storm Tide (worst case)
Max Tide
MHWS
Datum (Moturiki Vertical Datum 1953)
Tide
Effects
What does it show?Future Coastal Water Levels Sea Level Rise component added to Present Day
Values
Storm
Effects Lower Storm Tide (semi annual)
Upper Storm Tide (worst case)
Max Tide
MHWS
Datum (Moturiki Vertical Datum 1953)
Tide
Effects
Pre-defined Water Level
Scenarios
Firth of Thames
Coro West Coast
Coro East Coast
ThamesCoro
HarbourMercury
Bay
Present Day
Mean High Water Spring (m) 1.79 1.58 1.10
Max High Tide (m) 2.11 1.86 1.29
Storm Tide Range (Estimate)
Lower (m) 2.20 1.88 1.40
Upper (m) 3.22 2.67 2.10
Future Projected
0.5 m projected Sea Level
Rise
Mean High Water Spring (m) 2.29 2.08 1.60
Max High Tide (m) 2.61 2.36 1.79
Storm Tide Range (Estimate)
Lower (m) 2.70 2.38 1.90
Upper (m) 3.72 3.17 2.60
1.0 m projected Sea Level
Rise
Mean High Water Spring (m) 2.79 2.58 2.10
Max High Tide (m) 3.11 2.86 2.29
Storm Tide Range (Estimate)
Lower (m) 3.20 2.88 2.40
Upper (m) 4.22 3.67 3.10
Mean High Water Spring (m) 1.79 1.58 1.10
King Tides
February 2, 2014
Pauanui WaterwaysTairua Harbour
Whitianga - Buffalo Beach (Mercury Bay)
Gangways underwater
How does it work?Simple Bath Tub ModelWater levels mapped at 0.2 m increments
Slider bar on tool controls mapped water levels
Connected inundation (blue shaded
areas), areas where water could directly
flow to the sea.
Disconnected inundation (green areas),
areas that are at or below a chosen water
level, but may have no direct flow path to
the sea.
How do you use it?
Match nearest mapped water level with chosen water level scenario
Explore susceptibility – raise and lower water level
Choose Water Level Scenario for area of interest
Choose Pre-defined User defined
Zoom to area of interest
Photo: Sugar Loaf Wharf, Coromandel. Jan 4 2014, Stuart Crawley, WRC
Sugar Loaf Wharf, Coromandel Harbour - Jan 4 2014
Photo: Sugar Loaf Wharf, Coromandel. Jan 4 2014, Stuart Crawley, WRC
Sugar Loaf Wharf, Coromandel Harbour - Jan 4 2014
What else do you need to know?• Does not define coastal inundation hazard areas
• Does not recommend minimum floor levels
• Does identify areas that are potentially susceptible
to coastal inundation that may require further
assessment
• Also shows Tsunami Maximum Credible Event
inundation where available
• Updated with new information as required
Where do I find it?
http://www.waikatoregion.govt.nz/coastal-inundation-tool/
Coastal Hazards and Climate Change Guidance- MfE 2016
‘Heads up’ to TCDC - Section 5.7
Discussion on future projections and guidance
Timeline
• Final DRAFT completed Early 2017
• Further review to be undertaken.
• ***7 Slides removed as MfE document not
Published***
Coastal Policy Statement 2010• Policy 24: Identification of coastal hazards
• Identify areas in the coastal environment that are potentially affected by coastal hazards
(including tsunami), giving priority to the identification of areas at high risk of being
affected. Hazard risks, over at least 100 years, are to be assessed having regard to:
• physical drivers and processes that cause coastal change including sea level rise;
• short-term and long-term natural dynamic fluctuations of erosion and accretion;
• geomorphological character;
• the potential for inundation of the coastal environment, taking into account potential
sources, inundation pathways and overland extent;
• cumulative effects of sea level rise, storm surge and wave height under storm conditions;
• influences that humans have had or are having on the coast;
• the extent and permanence of built development; and
• the effects of climate change on:
• matters (a) to (g) above;
• storm frequency, intensity and surges; and
• coastal sediment dynamics;
• taking into account national guidance and the best available information on the likely
effects of climate change on the region or district.
Policy 25: Subdivision, use, and development in areas of coastal hazard risk
• In areas potentially affected by coastal hazards over at least the next
100 years:
• avoid increasing the risk10 of social, environmental and economic harm from
coastal hazards;
• avoid redevelopment, or change in land use, that would increase the risk of
adverse effects from coastal hazards;
• encourage redevelopment, or change in land use, where that would reduce
the risk of adverse effects from coastal hazards, including managed retreat
by relocation or removal of existing structures or their abandonment in
extreme circumstances, and designing for relocatability or recoverability
from hazard events;
• encourage the location of infrastructure away from areas of hazard risk
where practicable;
• discourage hard protection structures and promote the use of alternatives to
them, including natural defences; and
• consider the potential effects of tsunami and how to avoid or mitigate them.
WRC role in coastal hazards
• Supply of information/monitoring• Tide gauges, beach profile and shoreline monitoring
• Technical advice and guidance • Assist Resource Consents
• Public information • Coastal Inundation Tool
• Upcoming ‘Hazards Portal’
• Public Flood information requests (included coastal hazards)
• Conduit to Central Govt. guidance and advice.
• Waikato Regional Hazards Forum
Beach Profile Sites
• Survey up to 6 times per year
• Currently reviewing effectiveness
• Testing drones and LiDAR
(Source: T&T 2014)
Region wide shoreline mapping
• Mapping historical shorelines from aerial imagery
• The purpose of this process is:• To identify longterm trends of shoreline movement and form a
basic region-wide baseline understanding of how our coast
changes.
• To extend our monitoring beyond beaches (i.e. to include
environments such as cliffs and estuaries).
• As a “first pass” to identify any critical areas that need more
detailed monitoring.
• To inform the public about how the regions shoreline has
changed.