CO2 regulation in Europe - Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft...-Regulation in Europe 6 Source: IEA,...

2018/Thomas Puls

A compendium – Version 4.1

CO2 regulation in Europe

2CO2-Regulation in Europe

Megatrends

CO2 emissions

(Sl ides 5 – 12)

Fuels

(Sl ides 13 – 17)

Globalisation

(Sl ides 18 – 22)

Political framework

Cl imate policy

(Sl ides 24 – 31)

Regulation density and conflicting goals

(Sl ides 32 – 38)

Transportation sektor

Transportation today

(Sl ides 40 – 47)

CO2-emissions on the road

(Sl ides 48 – 54)

Efficiency on the road

(Sl ides 55 – 63)

Regulation on theroad

(Sl ides 64 – 71)

Other sektors

Electricity

(Fol ie 72 – 78)

Industry

(Sl ides 79 – 82)

Households

(Sl ides 83 – 86)

Outlook

Limits of the system

(Sl ides 88 – 93)

Alternatives

(Sl ides 94 – 98)

14. Fourteen core theses

(Sl ides 99 – 133)

Chapter overview


Climate protection

1. Europe’s share of the worldwide CO2 emissions is low and

continuously decreasing. (100)

2. No solution without China: Europe’s reduction of emissions is

being eaten up by growth in emerging economies. (103)

3. Motor vehicles account for approximately one-seventh of the

CO2 emissions in the EU. Their share in transportation emissions is

declining. (106)

CO2 regulation for motor vehicles

4. New vehicles in Europe have become considerably more efficient in recent years. (108)

6. Europe has once again tightened the reins on the CO2 limit values for motor vehicles and is requiring a further reduction of CO2 within an even

shorter span of time. (112)

5. CO2 legislation in Europe shows the most stringent target values in an international comparison. (110)

8. Vehicle fleet limit values under 95 grams cannot be achieved with conventional engine types, and the market success of alternative engine

types is still uncertain. (116)

7. Der Pkw-Sektor ist auch ohne eine weitere Verschärfung der CO2-Grenzwerte nach 2020 auf Kurs, um die Ziele der EU-Klimapolitik bis 2030

zu erfüllen.(114)

9. EU environmental legislation is not coherent and, for a long time, had other priorities than CO2 reduction. This had various consequences,

including an increase of CO2 emissions. (119)

10. Today’s CO2 laws regulate only new vehicles, completely disregarding the remaining vehicle fleet. (122)

11. An effective reduction of CO2 emissions cannot address new vehicles alone but must take a much broader approach. (124)

Balance between climate protection and industrial

policy

12. The EU is targeting a 20% industry share of GDP for the

year 2020. This goal is presently a long way away, since industrial and climate

protection policy are not yet aligned. (126)

13. The CO2 abatement costs vary greatly between sectors and are most pronounced in the automotive sector. (129

14. Emissions trading as the most economically efficient form of CO2 regulation can

easily be applied to road traffic. (131)

The core theses: Brief overview

4

1 Megatrends

2 Political framework

3 Transportation sector

4 Other sectors

5 Outlook

Agenda

CO2-Regulation in EuropeMegatrends

CO2-emissions Fuels Globalisation


Carbon reservoirs in in billions of tonnes

The carbon cycle

Soil 1.580

Surface water 1.020

Sediments 150

Deep sea 38.100

Photosynthesisand respiration Combustion

Gas exchangebetween the ocean

and atmosphere

Dissolvedorganic carbon

< 700

Sea organisms 3

Vegetation 610Fossil fuels and cement

production 4.000

Megatrends

CO2-emissions Fuels Globalisation Political framework Transportation sector Other sectors Outlook

Atmosphere 750


Source: IEA, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion – 2017

Emissions from fuel use, in millions of tonnes

CO2 emissions: Europe’s share sharply decreasing

10,3% 14,8%28,1%

23,4%23,2%

15,5%

19,6% 16,1% 9,9%

46,7% 45,9% 46,5%

1990 2002 2015

China USA EU Rest of the world

20 502 23 884

Compared to the year 1990, the absolute CO2 emissions are decreasing in the EU only. Between 1990 and 2015 the EU decreased the emissions by 823 Million tons.

In Asia in particular, emissions are rapidly increasing except for Japan.

The impact of European regulations on global CO2

emissions continues to decline.

+32 294

Megatrends




Emissions from fuel use* – Changes between 1990 and 2015 in Millions of tonnes

Reduction in Europe, strong increase in Asia

While China shows an increase of 331 per cent during the years 1990–2015, the EU shows a decrease of 21.5 per cent.

The gap is expanding: in 2014 alone, China’s emissions increased by 110 million tonnes. In 2015 there is a stagnation of emissions in China.

India increased it’s emissions in 2014 by 170 million tonnes, even more than in China. In 2015 there is a strong increase in India.

+

-823.0

+ 1 536.6

+ 6 975.4

EU India China* Corresponding to category 1A according to the UNFCCC classification system

Megatrends



Sources: EEA, 2018 (v21); IEA, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion – 2017

EU passenger cars – Relevant, yet not crucial

Relevant: Europe’s total passengercar traffic 2016 emitted 538 milliontonnes of CO2, an upward trendcompared to 2015.

Crucial? China, on the other hand, is showing a strong upwards trend in its use of fossil fuels – emitting nearly 526 million tonnes of CO2 in just three weeks.

Dynamic: between 2014 and 2015 the plus in China was about 9,1 per cent, respectively 60 millions oftons. This corresponds to a value ofapproximately 40 per cent of theemissions of the German traffic.

+

450

554 538

63

372

698

121

375

523

EU passenger cars traffic

China road traffic

China CO2 emissions in 21 days

CO2 emissions in millions of tons

Megatrends


9CO2 Regulation in Europe


CO2 emissions for the year 2014, in millions of tonnes

10 countries, two-thirds of the CO2 emissions

532

549

552

586

730

1.142

1.469

2.066

4.998

9.085

Saudi Arabia

Canada

Iran

Korea

Germany

Japan

Russia

India

USA

China

Megatrends


10

* For information only; ** Not including international air and maritime traffic. These are not classified as national emissions in the context of the Kyoto report Sources: EEA, 2018 (v21)

Figures for 2016, as percentage CO2EQ

CO2 emissions in the EU 28

Transportation sector by mode of transport

07%12%

48% 44%

26% 27%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2016

CommercialVehiclesPassenger Cars

Civil aviation

Rail transport

WaterwaytransportOther

Int. Aviation

Int. Waterwaytransport

Emissions according to sector

29,9%

21,3%9,9%

13,4%

10,8%

14,7%

Generationof heat

and energy

Industry

Passenger cars

Other sectors

Other modes of transport **

Agriculture

Megatrends


1.659 1.6171.195

1.3761.098

849

785987

931

643522

511

523441

415

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

1990 2007 2016

Other

Households

Agriculture

Transportation

Industry and

construction

Power generation

-5.7%

11CO2 Regulation in Europe

Source: EEA, 2018 (v21)

Greenhouse gas emissions in the EU 28 by sector, in millions of tonnes

Sector development

► Split development after the fall of the Iron Curtain

► Traffic emissions increased quickly after 1990, since Eastern Europe was integrated into the European Economic Area. Emissions have been decreasing since 2007, even in the transportation sector, but began torise again in 2014.

► In the early 1990s, considerable reductions were visible in the industry and energy generation sectors. Their emissions levels stagnated until around 2007, then dropped with the economic crisis.

5,410

4,884

3,991

+

Megatrends



Global CO2 emissions are continuously increasing, especially in Asia.

CO2 emissions are declining only in Europe.

The reduction of emissions in Europe is hardly significant when viewed against the increase of emissions in Asia.

Today, European regulations have relatively little influence on global CO2 emissions, and the influence is continuing to decline.

From the perspective of climate research, it is the overall volume of emissions at the global level which is relevant. The country or specific source of the emissions is essentially insignificant.

Summary: CO2 emissions

Megatrends



Kategorie 1

Kategorie 2

Kategorie 3

Kategorie 4

Diagrammtitel

Datenreihe 3 Datenreihe 2 Datenreihe 1

Fuels: Well-to-wheel emissions are what counts

Megatrends

CO2-emissionen Kraftstoffe Globalisierung Politischer Rahmen Verkehrssektor Andere Sektoren Ausblick

Fuel Consumption per

100 km (Vehiclefrom compact-class in NEDC)

price in €per

TTW CO2 EmissionsIn g CO2 / Km

WTW GHG-EmissionsIn g CO2eq / km

price*in Europer 100 km

Super E5 (conventional) 4,9 L 1,40 L115,72 144,93 6,86 €

Diesel B7 (conventional) 3,9 L 1,14 L 102,86 128,74 4,45 €

PHEV (Benzin E5 + Conv. Strom) 49,59 99,39 4,77 €

LPG (Remote well) 6,4 L 1,57 L 104,37 127,93 3,66 €

Natural Gas (H-Gas, EU-

Mix)

3,5 Kg 1,09 Kg88,9 109,42 3,81 €

Electricity (D-Mix 2015) 12,7 kW/h 0,29 KW/h 0,0 74,55 3,71 €

Hydrogen (EU Mix) 0,97 Kg 9,50 Kg 0,0 134,2 9,22 €

Bioethanol E85 (wood) 5,88 L 0,99 L 112,31 35,91 5,81 €

Bioethanol E85 (grain) 5,88 L 0,99 L 112,31 119,69 5,81 €

Biodiesel B100 (Rapeseed) 4,29 L 1,43 L 121,41 85,99 6,13 €

Electricity (Regenerativ) 12,7 KW/h 0,29 KW/h 0,0 5,33 3,71 €

Hydrogen (Aircraft) 0,97 Kg 9,50 Kg 0,0 15,14 9,22 €

E-Gas (Regenerativ) 3,5 Kg - Kg 88,9 5,21 n.e.

Synthetical diesel (Reg.) 3,9 L - L102,86 2,18

n.e. (not yet commercially available)

Nich

t rege

nerativ

Re

gen

erativ

E-Fue

ls

TTW: Tank-to-Wheel; WTW: Well-to-Wheel; CO2eq – CO2 Äquivalent

Comparison of emissions and alternative fuels


Source: Bloomberg, Baker Hughes (Stand April 2018)

But the supply is already decliningNumber of active drilling towers in the USA

Oil prices rise again in 2018 In US Dollar

High oil prices: Incentive for more efficient motor vehicles

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

02.0

1.09

02.0

7.09

02.0

1.10

02.0

7.10

02.0

1.11

02.0

7.11

02.0

1.12

02.0

7.12

02.0

1.13

02.0

7.13

02.0

1.14

02.0

7.14

02.0

1.15

02.0

7.15

02.0

1.16

02.0

7.16

02.0

1.17

02.0

7.17

02.0

1.18

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

03.0

1.00

03.0

1.01

03.0

1.02

03.0

1.03

03.0

1.04

03.0

1.05

03.0

1.06

03.0

1.07

03.0

1.08

03.0

1.09

03.0

1.10

03.0

1.11

03.0

1.12

03.0

1.13

03.0

1.14

03.0

1.15

03.0

1.16

03.0

1.17

03.0

1.18

Brent WTI

► Oil prices have greatly increased from the year 2000 till 2014.

► As a result of fracking in the USA, oil prices started to diverge in 2010.

► The supply side in the US is strongly linked with oil prices. Rising prices lead to an increase in active oil rigs

and vice versa.

+

Megatrends


► Fracking has strongly impacted the world market for fossil fuels.

► Favourable: The Gas price sank since 2005 clearly under the European level.

► The USA has greatly increased its domestic production of oil and natural gas.

► Independency: This greatly reduced the USA’s need to import fuel.

CO2-Regulation in Europe

US production and import of oil and natural gas Index, 1990 = 100

Gaspricein US-$ per 1,000m3

Fracking has changed the rules of the game

Fossil energy in the USA

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Gas production

Oil production

Gas import

Oil import

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Europe

USA

+51%

+82%

-38%

-33%

+

15

Sources: Weltbank, Economic Monitor (GEM) Commodities, 2017; IEA, World Energy Statistics

Megatrends



Various fuel types reveal a very different carbon footprint in the well-to-wheel analysis. Today, electricity and natural gas are the alternatives with the most favourable ratio of emission reductions to fuel costs.

The EU has a very high rate of dependence on imported energy carriers. This leads to cases of political dependence. Avoiding such dependencies is a key driver for European policy in the field of primary energy supply.

The development of oil prices creates innovative pressure on motor vehicle manufacturers, since fuel consumption is a key selling point. Even without regulation measures, customers would increasingly demand efficient vehicles.

Summary: Fuels

Megatrends


16


*Partly estimates or forecasts by the IWFSource: Internationaler Währungsfonds

Share of the world GDP*as percentage

1991 – 2017

The weights are shifting in the world GDP

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Advanced countries

Emerging and developing countries

► The dominance of the industrialised countries is crumbling.

► China’s significance is rapidly growing.

+

Megatrends


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

USA

China

Japan

Germany

EU-15 (without Germany)

17

Share of the world GDP*as percentage


Source: UNCTAD, IWF, Weltbank, IW Köln

Index for economic relations, 1980 = 1001980 = 100, nominal figures

Direct investments propel globalisation

► Globalisation means the establishment of global production structures through direct investments.

► Since 1980, the inventory of direct investments has grown at least five times as fast as international trade.

► Approximately one-third of international trade is already taking place in corporate networks.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Global GDP Globale Exports of goods and services

Global direkt investments stocks abroad

+4481%

+930%

+662%

+

18Megatrends



The emphasis of the world economy is shifting more and more towards Asia.

This trend is being fuelled by the establishment of production locations near the market.

Already today, the European locations are in strong competition with the countries in the growth regions, and many European locations are losing ground.

The significance of regulation in Europe is declining with the significance of the European economies.

If European industrial locations are to survive in terms of global competition, the EU must provide better local conditions.

Summary Globalisation

Megatrends


19

20

1 Megatrends



4 Other sectors

5 Outlook

Agenda

CO2-Regulation in EuropePolitical framework

Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs


Only Europe really joined in

Kyoto-Protocol

Kyoto signatories

Almost all of the world’s nations entered into the Kyoto agreement.

Political framework

Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs Transportation sector Other sectors OutlookMegatrends

+

21



Kyoto-Protocol

Kyoto signatorieswith emission target

► Almost all of the world’s nations entered into the Kyoto agreement.

► Only a few countries accepted emission targets.

+

22Political framework




Kyoto-Protocol

► Almost all of the world’s nations entered into the Kyoto agreement.

► Only a few countries accepted emission targets.

► Soft targets, in some cases: countries of the former Eastern bloc merely aimed to not exceed their figures from 1990.

+

Kyoto signatorieswho kept their emission target




Stipulated reduction compared to 2005, as percentage

The EU plans to clearly increase its pace

► After 2020, the non-ETS sectoris expected to reduce twice as much in 10 years as it did during the previous 15.

► The cost per reduced tonne of CO2 will increase considerably.

-34%

2020

2030

-21% -10%

-43% -30%

-12%

ETS*-Sektor

Non-ETSsector

EU GHG target(Basis: 2005)

Emissions trading

Establishment of a marketstabilisation reserve

Avoidance of relocation effects

How? Incorporating binding national targets

Supporting measures, e.g. emissions standards

+




Sources: BMWi, UBA, AGEB

The EU’s long-term targets, as percentage; base year 1990

The EU moves forward undeterred

-20%

20%

-20%

-21%

21%

-17%

-40%

27%

-27%

Target 2020 Forecast 2020 Proposal 2030

► The European Commission predicts that the climate targets for 2020 will largely be reached.

► Even if the rest of the world has not joined in so far, the EU plans to increase its tar-gets considerably after 2020.

Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions

Market share of renewable energy on gross final energy consumption

Efficiency target: reduction of energy consumption per unit of GDP

+




Sources: BMWi, UBA, AGEB

German federal government reduction targets, as percentage; base year 1990

Ten years faster: The German federal government exceeds EU targets

-28%

15%

-6%

-40%

18%

-20%

-55%

30%

Status 2016 Target 2020 Proposal 2030

► The German federal govern-ment is currently demanding addi-tional efforts to reach the target for 2020.

► For the period after 2020, the stipulated pace of change will be dramatically increased.

Reduction of greenhouse gasemissions

Market share of renewable energy on gross final energy consumption

Reduction of primary energyconsumption

compared to 2008

+




Sources: BMWi, IW Köln, KBA,UNFCCC, AGEB

German federal government reduction targets, as percentage

Buildings and traffic

-20%

2%

-10%

1.000.000

-11%

1%

4%

98.280

Target 2020 Status 2016

► The target value for road traffic is 136–141 million tonnes of CO2; value in 2016: 160.2 million tonnes of CO2.

► The building sector will likely miss its target considerably.

► On January 1st 2018 53.861 batteryelectric cars and 44.419 Plug-In-Hybrids were licensed.

Number of electric cars

Final energyconsumption compared to 2005

Rate of renovation p.a.

Energy demand compared to 2008

Bu

ildin

gsTr

affi

c

+



Fleet in January 2018


Global climate policy is currently experiencing a crisis.

The EU enthusiastically advanced in the Kyoto process, but no one followed. Outside the EU, only the transition countries met their targets, which were very soft in the first place.

The EU will reach its climate targets – even after the economic distortions following 2008 – and plans to considerably increase its pace in climate protection in the period after 2020.

The federal government wants to go further than the EU. While traffic emissions are essentially on track, areas such as the building sector are far from being able to reach its targets.

Summary Climate policy

Political framework

Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs Transportation sector Other sectorsn OutlookMegatrends

28


Source: Eurostat

The manufacturing industry’s share of the gross value, as percentage

The EU industrial sector: Collapse rather than rebirth

► EU target: The industrial sector is expected to have a 20 per cent share of the GDP in 2020

► Germany is reaching this target. The UK, Italy and France give cause for concern.

► Countries outside of Europe are improving quickly. Europe must respond in order to secure its position.

EU targetfor 2020

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Germany Spain France Italy UK EU 28

+

Political framework


29


Sources: EU, Eurostat

Progress in noise and safety targets

► Since 1990, the EU has shown considerable progress and has set ambitious regulations concerning noise emissions and safety.

► Additional sound reduction and safety devices bring extra weight and changes to the car body.

► The further targets result in a measurable overconsumption of new vehicles.

+

Traffic safety: Ambitious targetsRoad traffic fatalities in the EU 27 countries

75.400

54.000

25.500

15.500

1991 2001 2016 Target 2020

-28%

-53%

-39%

Noise targets: Noise emissions are expected to decline by up to 75 per cent.EU vehicle noise limit values in dB (A)

65

70

75

80

85

90

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

2016New measurement

Trucks > 150 kW

Trucks 75 - 150 kW

Trucks< 75 kW

Cars

MotorcyclesTrucks> 12 t, > 250 kW

Trucks> 12 t, 150-250 kWTrucks> 12 t, < 150 kWTrucks 3,5-12 t, > 135 kW

Trucks 3,5-12 t, < 135 kW

Cars> 200 kW, < 4 SitzeCars> 160 kW

Cars 120-160 kW

Cars< 120 kW

A reduction by 3 dB always representsa halving of the measurable sound..

80 dB88 dB




* without international aviation and shipping traffic. ** including agriculturalvehicles and fishing boatsSource: Annex I of the 2014 EMEP GUIDELINES FOR REPORTING EMISSIONS AND PROJECTIONS DATA UNDER THE CONVENTION ON LONG-RANGE TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION v2.0, 2018

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

18.000

Cars Commercial vehicles Other traffic Industry

Public energy supply Agriculture Households Other sectors

-69%

-46%

-58%

-71%

Data for EU 28* in kilo tonnes, Nox emissions converted in NO2

Nitrogene oxide emissions dropped by 56 per cent

Political framework



* for information only; ** without international aviation and shipping traffic. These are not regarded as national emissions.Sources: Annex I of the 2014 EMEP GUIDELINES FOR REPORTING EMISSIONS AND PROJECTIONS DATA UNDER THE CONVENTION ON LONG -RANGE TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION v2.0, 2018

Data of 2015, in per cent of the Nox emissions converted in NO2

Nitrogene oxide emissions in the EU 28

Transportation sectors by transport modes

14%

32%03%

10%

46%

23%

29% 25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2016

Comercial Vehicle

Passenger Car

Civil aviation(national)

Rail traffic

Inland navigation

Other

Int. aviation*

Int. shipping*

Emissions sectors

16,5

17,2

27,4

17,5

13,6

5,2 2,6

Public energy supply

Industry

Cars

Other sectors

Other traffic**

Agriculture

Households

Political framework


Sources: ICCT, 2014; Kraftfahrtbundesamt (KBA), 2016, Deutsche Umwelthilfe (DUH), 2016, Auto Motor Sport (AMS), 2015; Auto Motor Sport (AMS), 2016; Bosch

The gap between RDE and laborotory is closing

Real-Driving-Emissions NOx – Fast progress

The first RDE tests ofpassenger cars wereconducted in 2014.The performance ofthe up to date cars in RDE tests is muchbetter.The Values taken fromAMS show the same model with twoengine generationsThe technology tomeet the limit valuesis on the market.

+

NO

xin

g/k

m

Gap

CO2-Regulation in Europe 33

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1

Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6

EU litmit value (Laboratory) ICCT (2014)

KBA (04.2016) DUH (09.2016)

AMS (11.2015) AMS (05.2016)

Political framework



Source: EEA – Air Quality Statistics, 2018

The 12 cities of the EU with the highest level of NO2-Immissions in 2016

NO2: A European Problem

10 1

2

5

79

436

City 2016 in µg/m3

2010 in µg/m3

2006 in µg/m3

London 89.1 98.3 110.6

Paris 83.2 95.5 91.1

Stuttgart 81.6 99.9 121.3

München 79.9 98.7 97.5

Marseille 79.3 82.6 87.9

Darmstadt 76.0 65.4 67.5

Lyon 71.2 89.8 n.a.

Athen 70.3 83.2 85.7

Turin 69.9 74.4 94.0

Haford 69.4 n.a. n.a.

Mailand 66.0 73.4 77.6

Reutlingen 67.0 88.1 n.a.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

12

11

Political framework



* for information only; ** ** without international aviation and shipping traffic. Sources: Annex I of the 2014 EMEP GUIDELINES FOR REPORTING EMISSIONS AND PROJECTIONS DATA UNDER THE CONVENTION ON LONG -RANGE TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION v2.0, 2018

Transportation sector by transport modesEmissions by sectors

Data of 2016, in kilo tonnes fine dust (PM10)

PM10 emissions in the EU 28

30,0%

5,3%

13,3%

7,0%

5,9%

32,8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016

Abrasion (breaks, tyres,roadway)

Light duty vehicles(exhaust pipe)

Heavy duty vehicles(exhaust pipe)

Car (exhaust pipe)

Rail traffic

Navigation

Other

Aviation (total)*

Int. aviation*

735,8

349,8

377,7

85,8

128,8

75,0

327,7

Public energy supply

Industry

Road (Exhaust)

Other sectors

Agriculture

Households

Road (abrasion)Total

emissions** 2,080.61 kt

Political framework



* for information only; ** ** without international aviation and shipping traffic. Sources: Annex I of the 2014 EMEP GUIDELINES FOR REPORTING EMISSIONS AND PROJECTIONS DATA UNDER THE CONVENTION ON LONG -RANGE TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION v2.0, 2018

Transportation sector bytransport modes

Emissions by sectors

Data of 2016, in kilo tonnes of ultrafine dust (PM2,5)

PM2,5 emissions in the EU 28

37,3%

5,8%

14,3%

7,4%

6,6%

20,6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016

Abrasion (breaks, tyres,roadway)

Light duty vehicles(exhaust pipe)

Heavy duty vehicles(exhaust pipe)

Car (exhaust pipe)

Rail traffic

Navigation

Other

Aviation (total)*

Int. aviation*

682,5

185,7

97,4

85,2

60,5

48,7

193,9Public energy supply

Industry

Road (Exhaust)

Other sectors

Agriculture

Households

Road (Abrasion)

Totalemissions** 1,353.88 kt

Political framework



Source: Nature, 2013, Heft 493

Greater efficiency leads to more consumption – yet thereduction effects prevail

Rebound effect: A real problem

► The idea of the rebound effect is that more efficient vehicles have lower operational costs and are thus used more heavily.

► The rebound effect is real and can be proven, but it should not be overemphasised.

► Simulations show that 30 per cent of the reduction effect is eaten up again as a result of additional traffic.

► In spite of the rebound effect, more efficient technology still pays off.

-7% +2%

Simulation of the energy consumption of road traffic in the USA (in TWh), when implementing the targets for 2025

4.374

4.149

3.900

4.000

4.100

4.200

4.300

4.400

No targets Measures forhigherenergy

efficiency

Rebound Effect

After measureand rebound

Decreased petrol consumption through more efficient motor

vehicles.

-7% +2%

More routes aretravelled by car

+




CO2 reduction is only one of the traffic-related targets being pursued by the EU.

In the past, traffic-related regulation measures were focused on exhaust emissions and transportation safety.

Huge advancements have been made in regard to safety and harmful emissions of motor vehicles; but this has resulted in a higher consumption of energy.

The top priority for the future should be the reduction of CO2

emissions from motor vehicles.

Summary: Regulation density and conflicting goals

Political framework


38

39

1 Megatrends

2 Political frame


4 Other sectors

5 Outlook

Agenda

CO2-Regulation in EuropeTransportation sector

Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road


Source: Eurostat, Transport in Figures 2017

Trucks are facilitating the Single European Market

► The merging of the EU triggered tremendous growth in the area of freight transport.

► The creation of the Single European Market fuelled growth on both road and rail.

► Over 70 per cent of Europe’s freight is transported by truck.

► Since 2007, freight transport in Europe has decreased by 9 per cent.

+

Transportation sector

Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road

Development of freight transport in the EU 1995 =100

1.289 1.722

388

418237

263

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Freight transport in the EU 1995 and 2015 in tkm

1.914

2.400

Road Rail Other Total

40


Source: Eurostat, Transport in Figures 2017

High level of dynamics in air transport, but cars are the backbone

► Strong growth in air transport since the fall of the government monopoly.

► Considerable growth in rail transport since the EU started promoting national rail transport markets.

► Over 80 per cent of traffic is attributable to passenger transportation on roads. A stagnation has been evident since 2004

+

3.9375388

422

543,5348

649

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

504 11652125

5.329

Development of passenger traffic in the EU 1995 =100

Passenger transport in the EU 1995 und 2015 in pkm

6.554

Car Rail Air

187

Bus Motorcycle

41Transportation sector



Sources: EU, Trends to 2050, 2013; BMVI, Verflechtungsprognose 2030, 2014

in billions of tonne kilometres

Trucks will continue to dominate the considerably growing transport market

Official forecasts for freight transport in 2030

► There is some evidence that the PRIMES Prognosis from 2013 is outdated. It predicts an increase in goods traffic between 2010 and 2015, while it actually heavily decreased (Folie 42).

+

Traffic forecast for GermanyTraffic forecast for the EU

337 429393

602

1.764

2.399

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

2010 2030

+36%

+54%

+27%62 77

108154

437

607

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

2010 2030

Road

Railway

Waterway+39%

+43%

+23%




Quel len: Prognos, World Transport Report 2015//2016

in billions of tonnes kilometres

Limited increase in road transport in comparison to the official prognosis

Current forecasts for freight transport in 2030

► The current prognosis covers 12 EU Countries with about 92 percent of total road transport. The coverage of rail and inland waterways is less sufficient.

► Growth rates after 2015 hardly differ from the official forecast.

+

Traffic forecast for GermanyTraffic forecast for the EU

132,5 165312

458

1.658

2.045

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

2010 2030

+23%

+47%

+25%62 72

107160

435

554

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

2010 2030

Road

Railway

Waterway+27%

+49%

+15%




Sources: EU, Trends to 2050, 2014; BMVI, Verflechtungsprognose 2030, 2014

in billions of passenger kilometres

Cars will form the backbone of passenger transport for the long term

Official passenger transport forecasts for 2030

► Over the next 20 years, passenger transport will show a slower rate of growth than freight transport.

► Rail transport is expected to show substantial growth and to gain market shares.

► But: In passenger kilometres, between now and 2030, motor vehicle transport in the EU will increase by more than the total rail traffic being transported in 2030.

+

Traffic forecast for the EU Traffic forecast for Germany

53 8784 10078

83

902

992

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

2010 2030

Motorisedindividualtransport

Public roadtransportation

Railway

Air

+6%

+19%

+65%

+10%

527 888496

714513602

4.893

5.714

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

2010 2030

+18%

+49%

+69%

+17%




Source: ACEA, 2017; VDA ,2017

Existing vehicles are not covered by the regulation

Limit values affect only new vehicles

► Each year, only about 5 per cent of the vehicle fleet in the EU is replaced.

► Existing vehicles hold huge potential for CO2 reduction.

► That is why measures for replacing the existing vehicle fleet are essential

+

Approx. 15.1 million new vehicles were licensed in the EU in 2015.

Altogether, approx. 255 million cars

are licensed in the EU.




Sources: ACEA Report Vehicles in Use, 2017; ACEA Pocketbook 2017/2018

The existing vehicle fleet represents the technology from 10 years ago

► Licensed cars in Europe are 9.6 years old, on average – and the trend is increasing.

► The average age of cars in several member states is more than 10 years.

► But: The best method for reducing CO2 is to speed up the rate at which existing vehicles are replaced.

+

Age of passenger cars in Europe as percentage in 2015

Average age of licensed carsin years

46

10%

14%

27%

49%

< 2 years

2 - 5 years

5 - 10 years

> 10 years

17,216,7

16,315,315,1

14,514,5

14,113,513,4

12,712,6

11,411,2

10,79,69,5

9,09,08,98,98,8

8,58,5

6,2




Sources: EEA, Monitoring CO2 Emissions from new passenger cars, 2016; ACEA, 2016

In its reduction of CO2, Europe relies on diesel

► Since the mid-90s, Europe’s fleet of new vehicles has a growing share of cars that run on diesel.

► Diesel plays a significant part in Europe’s CO2 reduction progress.

► Diesel motors are primarily used in vehicles that are expected to have high mileage.

+

New car registrations in the EU 28 in 2016 Existing vehicle fleet in the EU in 2016

41,3%

55,8%

2,9%

Diesel Petrol Other

100% = 255 Mio. Cars in the stock

265.252

58.250

64.342

92.785

LPG49,4%

47,0%

3,6%

Diesel Petrol Other

100% = 14,7 million new car registrations

CNG

Plug-In

Electric




Road traffic is the indispensable backbone of mobility for passengers and freight in Europe.

According to official forecasts, the dominance of roads in Europe will not change between now and 2030.

Since 2007, traffic volumes on the road have declined. Today, these volumes are often below the projected levels; and even the official growth expectations must be questioned.

The replacement of Europe’s existing vehicles is an effective measure for reducing emissions; but it will be another ten years before the more efficient new vehicles dominate the fleet.

Summary: Transportation today

Political framework CO2-emissions road Other sectors


Megatrends Traffic today Efficiency road Regulation road Outlook

90

100

110

120

130

140

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

EU 28 EU 15 without Germany Germany

115,7

103,9

132,8

122,2

117,6

128,7


Quel le: EEA, 2017 (v20)

CO2EQ-Emissions of road traffic, 1990 = 100

The turnaround came in Germany first

► Since 1999, emissions in Germany have declined by 24 million tonnes and are now on the levels of 1990.

► From 2000 on, an increase in emissions could primarily be seen in Eastern and Southern Europe.

► The turnaround in the EU 28 did not begin until the crisis of 2008.

► In the years 2014 till 2016 emissions increased significantly.

+

Political framework


Other sectorsMegatrends Traffic today Efficiency road Regulation road OutlookCO2-emissions road

49



Absolute CO2EQ-emissions, 1990 = 100

Car traffic in the EU: CO2-emissions rising again

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

road cars

128,3

122,2123,1

116,5

► Car emissions have shown a much lower rate of increase than overall road traffic emissions.

► Car emissions have largely stagnated since 2002 and have been rapidly declining in 2011 but they are rising again since 2013.

+

50

Political framework





In millions of tonnes of CO2EQ

EU: Der Emissionsanteil des Güterverkehrs ist..?The share of emissions from freight transport has significantly increased

► Since 2007, the CO2 emissions of road traffic in the EU have been declining. But since 2013 they are rising again.

► Between 1990 and 2007, emissions from truck traffic in particular saw a rapid increase.

► Since 2007, emissions from freight transport have been declining again.

► The increase of emissions from car traffic was relatively moderate. Emissions have stagnated since around 2004 and have been declining from 2007 till 2012. Since 2013 they are rising again.

+0 200 400 600 800 1.000

1990 2007 2016

Total road traffic

Cars

Heavy andLight –weight

trucks

+22%

+16%

+33%

Shift1990 - 2016

-5,1%

-4,8%

-5,5%

Shift2007–2016

Political framework




Source: EEA, 2018

Emissions from new vehicles decreasing rapidly

Country

Average CO2 emissions of newly registered cars in 2016, in g per km

Change from 2007 to 2016, as percentage

Portugal 104,7 -27,25

Netherlands 105,9 -35,98

Denmark 106,0 -33,73

Greece 106,3 -35,69

France 109,8 -26,51

Croatia 111,5 k.A.Malta 111,8 -24,42

Ireland 112,0 -30,69

Italy 113,3 -22,59

Spain 114,4 -25,33

Belgium 115,9 -24,15

Slovenia 119,0 -23,86

Finland 120,0 -32,37

UK 120,1 -27,08

Austria 120,4 -26,03

Czech Republic 121,2 -21,47

Rumania 122,0 -21,32

Sweden 123,1 -32,30

Cyprus 123,5 -27,48

Bulgaria 124,8 -27,51

Slowakia 124,8 -18,21

Poland 125,8 -18,09

Hungary 125,9 -18,77

Luxembourg 126,1 -23,94

Lithuania 126,2 -28,05

Germany 126,9 -23,95

Latvia 128,9 -29,75

Estonia 133,9 -26,27

< 110 g per km

< 120 g per km

< 125 g per km

≥ 125 g per km

CO2 Emissionen

Higheremissions in

the East. Five EU countries

under 110

52

Political framework




Source: ACEA, 2016

CO2 emissions of new vehicles in the EU, as percentage

High-emission cars are being phased out

► The broad range of today’s new vehicles already emits less than 130 g CO2/km.

► Vehicles with high emissions are on the decline.

► In 1995 80 per cent of the new cars emitted more than 160 g CO2/km.

► Vehicles with emissions under 95 g CO2/km are now entering the market.

► More than 1/10th out of the new carsalready meet the target for 2021.

+

97%

75%

22%

3%

25%

66%

11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1995 2008 2016

> 130 g 96 g - 130 g <95 g

53

Political framework




Soruce: EEA, Monitoring CO2 Emissions from new passenger cars, 2018

CO2-emissions of new vehicles in the EU by engine type, in g of CO2 per km

Diesel- and petrol-powered vehicles are reducing their emissions

► Petrol-powered vehicles are showing great advancements and are catching up with diesel engines.

► But: Diesel engines dominate more among larger vehicles, while petrol engines dominate among smaller vehicles.

► The advancements among diesel engines appear stronger, since diesel vehicles spend more time on the road each year.

+17000%16810%16490%

16160%

15660%

14770%

14250%

13760%13370%

12860%12560%

12250%12170%

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Diesel Petrol

-25,2-28,4%

54

Political framework




Source: ACEA, 2017, Reducing CO2 from trucks: progress in practice – Third-party assessment

Scientifically evaluated road test of comparable heavy trucks of different years of construction for determining the real CO2 emissions

Heavy trucks: clear progress in practical test

1996: 436 PS

1992: 500 PS

1991: 405 PS

1994: 402 PS

1994: 514 PS

2016: 450 PS

2016: 500 PS

2016: 460 PS

2016: 460 PS

2016: 571 PS

DaimlerDEKRA

ScaniaAVL

VolvoAVL

MANTÜV Süd

IvecoAVL

-22%

-1,10%

Reduktion of emissions per year

Total difference in emissions of oldand new

1

2

1

2

-25%

-1,04%

1

2

-19%

-0,76%

1

2

-31,5%

-1,45%

1

2

-21%

-0,95%

1

2

Political framework


55


The CO2 emissions of road traffic in the EU have been decreasing for years.

Compared to 1990, the emissions from truck traffic in particular increased dynamically but have been decreasing again since 2007. Emissions from car traffic have stagnated since 2004 and have shown a clear decline since 2007.

The increased distribution of more fuel-efficient new vehicles accounts for the decline in car emissions.

The increased use of diesel engines – especially in the case of larger vehicles – was a key driver in the reduction of emissions.

Summary: CO2 emissions on the road

Traffic today CO2-emissions road


Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Efficiency road Regulation road

56


Source: Odyssee Database, 2016

EU: Increased energy efficiency in road traffic

► The use of energy per unit of output has reduced considerably in European road traffic since 2000.► But: Since 2007, truck traffic in the EU has relinquished a portion of its efficiency gains. Two new EU standards

related to the reduction of pollutants were introduced in this time period, which likely led to the increased consumption of new vehicles.

► The increased efficiency of cars has accelerated considerably since 2007.

+


Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today Efficiency road Regulation roadCO2-emissions road

Trucksin kWh/1.000tkm

0 125 250 375 500 625 750

2000 2007 2015

-10%

Change2000 - 2014Change

2007 - 2015

-19%

-2,5%

-0,0%

0 100 200 300 400 500

2000 2007 2015

-8,4%

Carsin kWh/1.000pkm

-11%-4,3%

-6,4%

57

248,65

209,94

24,34 63,1


Source: Odyssee Database Juli 2018

Increases in efficiency are obscured by growth in the quantityof freight transported

EU freight transport between 2000 and 2016

Development of energy consumption by impact, in terawatt hours (TWh)

More traffic Overall impact

+29,8

Efficiency Other,Modal shift

► More efficient vehicles and routing help to offset approximately the increased consumption resulting from other factors.

► Modal shift effects play a subordinate role with an additional consumption of 29 TWH.

+




Source: Odyssee Database Oktober 2017

More efficient vehicles have a growing impact on energyconsumption levels

Car traffic between 2000 und 2015

In terawatt hours (TWh)

Overall impact

OtherMore traffic

+175,4

Energyreductionmeasures

+123,3

-391,9

► As a result of increasing traffic volumes, energy consumption in car traffic has increased significantly since the year 2000.

► But: The dominant impact came about through more efficient vehicles.

► The total energy consumption in the year 2015 was on the same level as in the base year 2000.

+

203,7

59

9,3

-391,9

203,7





More efficient vehicles have a growing impact on energyconsumption levels

Car traffic between 2000 und 2015

2000 – 2007 in terawat hours (TWh)

Total impact

+96,1

+85,6

Energy savingmeasurements

Other

+144,6

More traffic

-155,2

► Around the turn of the millennium, additional traffic led to an increase in energy consumption. This effect has changed course in the last seven years.

► During the second half of the reported period, the reduction effect became dominant against the effect of additional traffic, driven by the increased distribution of more efficient vehicles.

+

2007 – 2015 in terawat hours (TWh)

Total impact

-49,0

Energy savingmeasurements

-80,5Other

-82,3

More traffic

+50,8




Sources: KBA 2016; EEA, Monitoring CO2 Emissions from new passenger cars, 2016

Diesel ensures lower emissions from large cars

New car registrations in GermanyMarket shares by segment and engine type, in %

► Diesel is increasingly becoming the preferred engine for large vehicles that spend the most time on the road, while petrol engines still dominate the smaller car classes.

► As a result of this trend diesel engines have become heavier (more powerful), and petrol engines have been catching up in terms of standard fuel consumption. In 2016 a diesel car was 300 kg heavier than a petrol car.

► Fuel efficiency has in fact improved at essentially the same rate for both engine types.► Diesel remains a key means for reducing CO2 emissions.

+

Ø vehicle mass in kg

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

1.000

1.100

1.200

1.300

1.400

1.500

1.600

1.700

1.800

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ø CO2-Emissions in g

Diesel Petrol

Increased efficiency 2004 – 2016

Emission per kg vehicle massDiesel - 28,68% Petrol - 28,12%

2%

11%

40%

73%

88%

63%

58%

7%

28%

74%

83%

28%

98%

89%

60%

27%

12%

37%

42%

93%

72%

26%

17%

72%

Mini

Small

Compact

Medium

Upper Medium

Luxury

Off road

Sports car

Mini Van

Large Van

Utility

Other

Diesel Petrol




Source: own calculations

Where would Germany be without diesel?

CO2 emissions of newly registered cars in 2016By segment and engine type, in g per km

► Diesel emissions are lower than those of petrol in all vehicle segments.

► Diesel engines dominate the larger classes of vehicles.

► The emissions level of new vehicles would be significantly higher without the use of diesel engines.

+

How would emission levels compare if a portion of the diesel engines were replaced by petrol engines?CO2 emissions in g per km

126,5

132,7

119,6

Real Petrol only Diesel only

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240

Mini

Small

Compact

Medium

Upper Medium

Luxury

Off road

Sports car

Mini Van

Large Van

Utility

Other

Diesel

Petrol



2

4

6

8

10

12

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175

1 Gear 2 Gear 3 Gear 4 Gear 5 Gear 6 Gear

Speed in km/h

Consumptionl/100km


Quel le: VW

Shifting gears early saves fuel: the fuel consumption curve of a Golf 1.4 TFSI (90 kW) in relation to its speed

The driver determines the fuel consumption

► Fuel saving training courses: Following the course, participants used approximately 20 per cent less fuel than before. In Germany alone, the reduction potential from fuel-efficient driving is estimated at 12 million tonnes of CO2.

► Gear shifting support is particularly effective in urban traffic: when driving at a speed of 50 km per hour, the test vehicle consumes 1.2 litres less in fifth gear than in third.

+



Make 3 on 2

Two long trucks are able to transport as much load as threestandard trucks.

Low fuel consumption

The long truck rides more efficient than other trucks.Consequence: less fuel consumption per load.


Make 3 on 2 – Bigger Loading volume cutsfuel consumption

Standard truck 1 Standard truck 2 Standard truck 3

Load

Standard truck 1

Standard truck 2

Standard truck 3

+50%

+50%

16,5 m

Conventional semitrailer

17,8 m

Long semitrailer

Long truck

25,25 m

-10%CO2

-25%CO2

Route networkLong truck

Long truck 1

Long truck 2

Long truck 2Long truck 1




* Results from a field experiment of the federal government; loads were transported with a density of 0,72 kg/dm3 (paper: 0,8 kg/dm3)Source: BMVI

Long trucks: 15 per cent efficiencyimprovements confirmed in practical test*

► Long trucks are significantly more efficient in transporting high load volumes than conventional semitrailers. ► The advance in efficiency of a good 15 per cent lasts als long as the load volume will be fully used.► Heavy loads can be transported much more efficiently than with normal trucks.► A long truck consumes more fuel than a conventional semitrailer. This does only pay for the carrier, if he moves

more load than the today‘s truck can carry.

+

Long truck Conventional semitrailer

gross vehicle weight: 40tLoad volume: 155 m3

Valued track section: 8,900 kmØ Fuel consumption: 33.9 l/100 km

gross vehicle weight : 36tLoad volume : 100 m3

Valued track section : 10,700 kmØ Fuel consumption : 24.1 l /100 km

2,81

0,21

3,37

0,24

Payload in l /100 tkm Volume in l/100 m3km

Transport efficiency

+15%




More fuel efficient vehicles have led to a considerable increase in the overall efficiency of road traffic since the year 2000.

Increased traffic volumes have long prevented the more efficient vehicle technology from actually lowering the overall level of emissions.

Diesel engines were a major driver of the increasing efficiency. They have led to considerably lower emissions, particularly in the case of larger vehicles.

Low-cost possibilities for increasing efficiency are being wasted. Fuel saving training courses can reduce consumption by 20 per cent.

The licensing of larger trucks could also save a lot of fuel.

Summary: Efficiency on the road


Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions today Efficiency road Regulation road

66


* In legislation processSource: ICCT, 2018

in g CO2/km under the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC)

The most stringent CO2 target values for new vehicles

► The EU emission standard for 2021 is the most stringent standard in the world.► Even in 2025 it is unlikely that any country on earth will have more stringent limit values than the one stipulated

by the EU for 2021.► The limit values being discussed in the EU for the year 2025 would be up to 50 per cent lower than those in the

USA.► In November 2017 the EU Kommission proposed to lower the limit value within the period of 2021 until 2025 by

15 per cent and to codify a minus of 30 per cent until 2030.

+

*



67

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

US EU Japan China

205

172

187

152

118

115

151

213

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

95

117 105

125

97

81*

Actual levels for 2002 – 2016 Adopted for 2020–2025

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700

Fiat RenaultToyota

Ford

VWOpel

MazdaHyundai

BMW

Daimler

EU: Fleet 2006

EU: Targetcurve2015

EU: Targetcurve 2021

9 years

6 years

Actual levels of 2016

Audi


Sources: EU, EEA

in g CO2/km

CO2 target values for 2021: High demands on the automotive industry

Independent of vehicle weight, manufacturers of large cars have to show greater reductions than high-volume manufacturers.

In the nine years from 2006 to 2015, a reduction of the average emissions by 30 g CO2/km was required of new vehicles – from 160 g CO2/km down to 130 g CO2/km .

Speeding up the pace: In the six years from 2015 to 2021, average emissions must be reduced by 35 g CO2/km – from 130 g CO2/km down to 95 g CO2/km. For 2025 a suggestion has been raised by the commission of 81 g CO2/km, that is a minus of 14 g CO2/km in four years.

+Average weight of new passenger cars in kg

130

95

160




Source: EU Kommission DG Transport, Weekly Oi l Bulletin

Fuel tax per litre, in euro – status as of: 18. June 2018

High CO2 emissions mean high payments:

91,289,2

85,482,7

74,974,9

73,473,472,6

71,070,470,469,7

68,367,567,4

65,264,4

62,961,761,4

59,459,158,1

55,955,0

51,949,7

0 30 60 90 120

United KingdomItaly

FranceBelgiumIreland

SwedenNetherlands

FinlandPortugal

EstoniaSlovenia

DenmarkGreeceCroatiaCyprus

GermanyMalta

Czech RepublicSlovakiaAustria

HungaryLatvia

RomaniaSpain

PolandLithuania

BulgariaLuxembourg

Diesel

107,4103,0102,5

97,795,494,994,6

93,190,4

88,787,986,5

81,380,479,378,8

74,972,271,370,970,269,2

65,264,663,9

61,961,0

55,3

0 30 60 90 120

NetherlandsGreece

ItalyFinland

PortugalFrance

DenmarkSweden

United KingdomGermany

IrelandBelgiumSlovakiaCroatia

SloveniaEstonia

MaltaCzech Republic

LatviaAustriaCyprus

SpainLithuania

LuxembourgHungaryRomania

PolandBulgaria

Petrol




Sources: EU, UBA, Weekly Oi l Bulletib, own calculations

CO2 from cars comes at a high cost in the EU

► From 2021, full penalty fees will apply to car manufacturers who do not reach their specific target.

► If a car drives 200,000 km, a reduction by 1g/km corresponds to an emissions reduction of 200 kg over the life of the vehicle.

► Based on this assumption, the manufacturer will pay a penalty of 475 euros per tonne of CO2.

► This cost is considerably higher than what others have to pay.

+

A penalty of 95 euros will apply for each gram that exceeds the target, for each vehicle sold. This corresponds to approximately 475 euros per tonne of CO2

CO2-Pricesin euros pro tonne

475

367

145

80

30

13Carbon credits (as ofApril 2018)

Carbon credits (targetfor 2020)

Damage costs 2010 (UBA)

Damage costs 2030 (UBA)

Petrol Taxation (EU average)

Emission standard forcars




Source: IKA Aachen

The potential for further reduction exists but is becoming harder to achieve

1 HCCI2 Thermoelectric generator3 Variable compression

4Lightweight construction (comprehensive)

5 Improved EGR

6Direct injection w/ stratified charge

7 Cylinder deactivation8 Full hybrid9 Micro-hybrid

10 Dual clutch transmissions11 Homogeneous direct injection

12Fully variable valve control system

► Due to the technologies needed for boosting efficiency, new vehicles will cost approximately 2,700 euros more in 2020.

► This expense will be offset, however, by savings resulting from lower fuel consumption. These savings are spread across the entire life of the vehicle (17 years on average); so, the first customer will only enjoy part of this benefit but will carry the full cost of the new technologies when purchasing the vehicle.

+

Research Pre-development Series development Series

Petrol engines (compact class)CO2 reduction potential in %

Technology costs in €

1

2

46

8

910

110

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 1.000 2.000 3.000

Diesel (compact class)CO2 reduction potential in %

Technology costs in €

23

4

57

8

910

120

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 1.000 2.000 3.000




Source: ev-sales.blogspot, 2018

New vecicles BEV/PHEV: 199.822 New vecicles BEV/PHEV: 62.170

New vehicles and top-selling models of the year 2017

Electric cars: hardly any global models

1. Tesla S2. Chevrolet Bolt3. Tesla X4. Toyota Prius PHV5. Chevrolet Volt

1. Renault Zoe2. BMW i33. Mitsubishi Outlander4. Nissan Leaf5. Tesla S

1. Volkswagen E Golf2. BMW i33. Tesla X4. Mitsubishi Outlander5. Tesla S

1. BAIC EC Series2. Zhidou D2 EV3. BYD Song PHEV4. Chery eQ5. JAC iEV6S/E

World 20171.224.103

Market share1.1%

Market share2.4%

Market share2.1%

Market share39.2%




Market share forecasts for electric vehicles

7%

30%

18%

36%

8% 9% 12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Current forecasts for the global market share in the year 2025

Bloomberg08/2017

PWC 01/2018

Allforecasts

predict a highermarket share in

Europe

TypicallyBEV and FCEV

Make up for 55 to 60Percent of the

electric vehicles.

73

FAST 203005/2018BEV/FCVonly



These numbers include BEV, FCV and PHEV

Market driven by thedemand side

KPMG 01/2017 Deloitte 02/2017

FastLearning curve

RegulatedMarktet

SlowLearning curve

Source: EU Komission, Own calculations

Emissions from PHEV arecalculated on the basis ofthe emissions in combustion operations and of theelectric coverage of the car.

Firstly the PHEV participatesin the European testing cycle(NEDC) in combustionoperations.

Then it runs the cycle drivenon electrical energy as longas the battery lasts.

Depending on the such determined coverage of thecar a pro rata deductionfrom the emissions in pure combustion operations isapplied.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77Electric coverage in kilometers in NEDC testing cycle

Emissions calculations for PHEV

Allo

cate

dem

issi

on

sin

co

mb

ust

ion

op

erat

ion

sin

per

cen

t

With a 25 km Electric coverage

of the carthe deduction

of 50per cent

is applied.

CO2-Regulation in EuropeTransportation sector



Source: TU Graz, 2018

CO2emissions of a middle class car with different drive versionsand speed

Speed makes the difference

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

CO

2 in

g/k

m

v in km/h

HBEFA cycles with 0 % gradiant

Euro 6 diesel Plug-In-Hybrid Tank-to-Wheel

Euro 6 petrol Plug-In-Hybrid Well-to-Wheel




Source: IEA, Co2-Emissions from Fuel Combustion, 2017, own calculations

657

540

771

456

315

450489

90

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

CO2 emissions of power production and electric cars

Electricity mix will decide on climate friendliness

CO2 emissions or power productionin gCO2/kWh

131

108

154

91

63

9098

20

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

With a fuel consumption of 20 kWh/100km an electric car emits … gCO2/km



Source: Bloomberg, MBI

Lithium is highlyreactive and istherefore tradedin the form oflithiumcarbonate.

Currently thedemand isgrowing muchfaster thansupply.

Only four plantsaccount for 80 per cent of theworldwideproduction oflithium.

Price indices of lithium are rising

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

01.0

1.20

09

01.0

6.20

09

01.1

1.20

09

01.0

4.20

10

01.0

9.20

10

01.0

2.20

11

01.0

7.20

11

01.1

2.20

11

01.0

5.20

12

01.1

0.20

12

01.0

3.20

13

01.0

8.20

13

01.0

1.20

14

01.0

6.20

14

01.1

1.20

14

01.0

4.20

15

01.0

9.20

15

01.0

2.20

16

01.0

7.20

16

01.1

2.20

16

01.0

5.20

17

01.1

0.20

17

01.0

3.20

18

Asia Lithium Carbonate CIF Swa Europe Lithium Carbonate CIF S

North America Lithium Carbonat

Source: Bloomberg

Bargain prices forcobalt have risensince March 2015 bya good 200 per cent.

Cobalt is mostly a by-product of the nickeland copper mining.

Falling prices ofnickel and copperdampen cobaltproduction.

Bargain prices for important raw materials


0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

90.000

100.000

01.0

1.20

10

01.0

6.20

10

01.1

1.20

10

01.0

4.20

11

01.0

9.20

11

01.0

2.20

12

01.0

7.20

12

01.1

2.20

12

01.0

5.20

13

01.1

0.20

13

01.0

3.20

14

01.0

8.20

14

01.0

1.20

15

01.0

6.20

15

01.1

1.20

15

01.0

4.20

16

01.0

9.20

16

01.0

2.20

17

01.0

7.20

17

01.1

2.20

17

01.0

5.20

18

LME COBALT SPOT ($) LME NICKEL SPOT ($) LME COPPER SPOT ($)


Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, 2017

50%

6%

10%

26%

10%

Energy storage Chemical syntheses Lubricants Glass/Ceramic Other

Demand for lithium in the year 2016 according to specific application

Lithium: Batteries dominate demand



Source: MBI E-Mobility Materials, Nr. 13 2017

58%

33%

40%

16%

0%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Graphit Anode S Mangan 99,7% Neodymoxid 99% Terbiumoxid 99,9% Dysprosiumoxid 99%

Relevant raw materials increase in priceChange in prices from January 2017 to March 2018 in per cent

CO2-Regulation in Europe 80Transportation sector



Source: UBS Evidence Lab, Mai 2017

33,9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Lithium

Cobalt

Graphit

Nickel

per year… per cent of thereserves would be eaten up.

the demand for raw materialswould be … per cent higher.

In a world with 100 per cent of electric cars of present design …

New battery types are required

2.511%

1.928%

264%

118%

0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000

Lithium

Cobalt

Graphit

Nickel




Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, 2017

5786

177

10

18

46

36

35

49

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Q1 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 2021

China USA Other countries

Cell production in GWh, consisting and developing

Battery cells: China propels capacity building




The EU has waived the world’s most stringent CO2 emission levels for cars. In 2021, the limit values will be one-third lower than those of the USA.

CO2 emissions from road traffic are priced higher by the EU than emissions from other sources.

The “low-hanging fruits” have already been picked – and it will become more expensive in the future.

The manufacturers of large vehicles, in particular, have to gradually focus on the switch to electric powertrains. But: Today, the market run-up for electric cars and plug-in hybrids is slowing down. And no one knows how the market for these vehicles will develop in the future.

Summary: regulation on the road

Regulation road


Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today Efficiency roadCO2-emissions road

83

84

1 Megatrends



4 Other sectors

5 Outlook

Agenda

CO2-Regulation in EuropeOther sectors

Power Industry Households

85

In the EU, the emissions from public heat and power generation are approximately 15 per cent less than the levels in 1990.

› More efficient power plants and a changing power mix help to cover the overconsumption.

Power generation underlies European emissions trading. Emissions trading consists of two components:

› A prescribed cap on emission volumes that will continuously decrease up to the year 2020.

› A tool for distributing the burden (trade). The market for carbon credits ensures that the EU will meet the prescribed emission volumes at low costs.

CO2 in other sectors: power generation

Other sectors

Power Industry HouseholdsPolitical framework Transportation sector OutlookMegatrends


CO2EQ- emissions of public heat and power generation, 1990 = 100

The reduction can be credited to Eastern Europe in particular

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

EU 28 EU 15 Eastern European Acces Countries

97,3

71,0

61,4

108,5

75,9

Other sectors



-344.1400.5

593.5


Source: Odyssee Database July 2018

in Terawatt hours (TWh) of primary energy use; changes from 2000 – 2016

Power generation – consumption of fossil primary energy declining

Overall impact

Power Mix

-649.3

Electricityconsumption

More efficientfossil power

plants

Electricity consumption in Europe is persistently increasing.

Yet fewer fossil primaryenergy carriers are being consumed.

Power generation is not an end in itself; it facilitates production and consumption in the industrial sector and in homes.

+

87Other sectors



Sources: EU, DIW

Volume of carbon credits in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), in millions of tonnes

Cap: A government-prescribed reduction

► Specific: The emissions target of -21 per cent is sure to be met on account of the decreasing cap.

► Apportioned: The initial auctioning of 20 per cent is expected to increase to 60 per cent by 2020.

► Flexible: It is not stipulated which trade participant will bring about the reduction.

+

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030

Ziel2030

3rd tradeperiod cap

2nd tradeperiod cap

1st tradeperiod cap Discussed

reductionrate after

2020-2,2%

-21%

Reduction rate by 2020-1,74%

88Other sectors



Trade: Emissions trading ensures an efficient distribution of the reduction burden

► In the example above, Plant 1 renders the entire reduction but has three-fourths of the costs reimbursed through emissions trading. The example shows that both plants save thousands of euros compared to a restriction on emissions.

► The specific distribution of the reduction burden arises from the carbon credit price and the particular reduction costs.

► Participants with high abatement costs help to finance other participants’ reduction efforts.

+

Exhaust up to now,in tonnes

Permiss-ibleexhaustin the future,in tonnes

Reduc-tioncosts per tonne

Totalcosts

5,000 4,500 20 10,000

5,000 4,500 50 25,000

10,000 9,000 35,000 Gesamt

Exhaust up to now,in tonnes

Permiss-ibleexhaustin the future,in tonnes

Carbon credits received, in tonnes

Reduc-tioncosts per tonne

Achievedreduction, in tonnes

Cost for thereduction

Trade, in tonnes

Tradein euros

Tota lcosts bytrade

5,000

Insg.

9,000

4,500 20 1,000 20,000 5,000

5,000 4,500 50 0 0 15,000

10,000 9,000 9,000 1,000 20,000 500 15,000 20,000

15,000500

Plant 1

Plant 2

Case 1:

Emission restrictionsCase 2:

Emissions trading: Carbon credit price at 30 euros per tonne

89Other sectors


-1

-3

18

54427

357 356

303

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2000 2010 2015

Power generation: CO2 emissions are still on the rise, in spite of the increasing share of renewable energies.

The reason: Renewable energies are, in particular, replacing natural gas and coal -fired power plants; nuclear energy use is also declining. Lignite is filling the resulting base load gap.

The subsidisation of renewable energies has resulted in an increased volatility of supply. This frequently results in surplus power that has to be exported outside the country at a cheap rate.


Source: Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen 2018, EEA 2018 (v21)

Power generation and trade in GermanyPower mix

The subsidisation of renewable energies leads to an increasing export of electricity

Germany’s energy transition: Unexpected results

+

GHG-Emissions in Mio. t CO2

Balance of trade in TWH

90

31,1 25,7 23,0 22,5

27,729,4

22,2

25,624,8

18,5

14,1

3,6 6,616,6

33,3

5,5 4,9 5,6 4,3

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2017

Others Renewable Natural gas

Hard coal Nuclear energy Lignite

Other sectors



The CO2 emissions of the industrial sector have declined by one-fourth in the last 20 years.

› Increased efficiency: Emissions in the industrial sector decreased by one-third per euro of added value.

The industrial sector is governed by various regulations:

› Electricity consumption is subject to emissions trading and a high rate of taxation. In the USA, industrial energy costs only about half as much as the EU average.

› The EU Ecodesign Directive sets maximum tolerances for the energy consumption of consumer products such as lamps and household appliances. Products that do not meet the standard have to be removed from the market. The most noticeable target: light bulbs.

CO2 in other sectors: industry

Other sectors


91



Improved efficiency: One-third fewer emissions per euro of added value since 1995kg CO2/Euro2005

CO2 emissions in the industrial sector are declining: -25% since 1995in millions of tonnes of CO2

► Regulation: The largest share of CO2 emissions caused by industrial activities is subject to emissions trading.► Increased efficiency: The emissions per unit of gross value have decreased by a good third since 1995.► Deindustrialisation: The movement of industrial activities out of many European countries has resulted in a decrease of

CO2 emissions in the EU.

+

CO2-Intensität

CO2-Intensitätinkl. Strom

Other sectors


Industry in the EU 28: Decreased emissions, greatly improved efficiency

92

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Through powerconsumption*Other

Steel

Chemicals

Food

Paper

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

1995 2005 2015

-45%

-47%


* For information onlySources: Eurostat 2018, BDI

In cent pro kWh for companies with a consumption of 20 to 70 gigawatt hours

Industrial energy prices in the second half of 2017: Much less expensive in the USA

Industrial energy prices in Europe are much higher than those of international competitors.

The biggest difference is in comparison to the USA, wherea kWh costs approximately 45 per cent less than in Europe.

The highest prices apply in the UK and Italy. But for totally different reasons.

Recoverable taxes – such as VAT – are viewed as transitory items for the company.

+

93

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

UK

Italy

Belgium

Portugal

Germany

Spain

Austria

Poland

France

EU 28

Czech Republik

France

Netherlands

Sweden

China*

India*

USA*

Product price

Non-recoverable tax

Recoverable tax

Other sectors



Household CO2 emissions have decreased by 13 per cent since 1990.

› In the same reporting period, the number of households and the living space per person increased substantially.

The key to future emission reductions is in the area of heating.

› Heating constitutes 70 per cent of a household’s total energy consumption.

› In spite of the EU Ecodesign Directive, consumption has greatly increased through the use of electric appliances, since households contain an increasing number of them.

The installation of new heating units results in very low CO2

abatement costs, but it rarely pays off for home owners without subsidisation.

CO2 in other sectors: Households

Other sectors


94

Energy savings



Households: Decreasing CO2 emissions despite higher demands in living spaces

CO2-Emissionsin millions of tonnes

Nearly half of household emissions fall under emissions trading.

The trend is leaning towards more households and larger apartments, which increases emissions.

Besides emissions trading, households are impacted by electricity taxes and energy consumption regulations for buildings.

+

Changes in household energy consumption between 2000 and 2016in terawatt hours (TWh)

Direct CO2 emissions from households (heating, hot water)

Emissions from household electricity consumption

Overall impact

Other

-1.203,8

Larger l iving spaces

More electric appliancesper household

Climatic faktor

More households+503,7

Other sectors


95

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

-23%

-26%

-71.7

-58.0

+196.6

+377.4

+516.2

+70.7



Significant progress per square metre of living space1990 = 100

The heating system is the key to lower emissionsin terawatt hours (TWh)

Energy consumption: the potential lies in the heating market

► Heating systems consume about 70 per cent of the final energy in households.

► Advancements in heating efficiency are almost entirely eaten up by increased living space.

► Electric appliances only play a minor role; however, due to the increasing number of appliances per household, overall energy consumption has risen by 45 per cent since 1990.

+

96

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

1990 2000 2015

Heating Hot water

Cooking Electric appliances

60

70

80

90

100

110

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Energy consumption for light per m2

Energy consumption for heating per m2

Other sectors


97

1 Megatrends



4 Other sectors

5 Outlook

Agenda

CO2-Regulation in EuropeOutlook

Limits of the system Alternatives Core theses


Limit values for cars: Only indirect influence on actual CO2 emissions

► Today, Europe regulates a car’s emissions potential in grams per kilometre.

► However, the actual target is the avoidance of CO2 emissions in tonnes.

► There is no direct connection between emissions potential and actual emissions. The real impact is determined

by the user.

► Result: Today’s regulation is not precise and does not correspond to the regulation in other sectors.

+

Outlook

Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends

!

Assumptions

Under the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC), a better transmission will save 4 g CO2/km.

The transmission costs an additional 200 euros.

In Europe, an average car travels approximately 200,000 kilometres during its lifetime.

CO2 savings, in tonnes:

4 g/km * 200,000 km = 800,000 g = 0.8 tonnes

Investment costs, in euros per tonne:

200 € / 0.8 tonnes = 250 € per tonne

98


* Extrapolation from published reports ** Ca lculated based on the average va lue of the respective line.Sources: AGFW, IKA Institut für Kraftfahrzeuge Aachen, EU

Expensive CO2 avoidance leads to excess burden

Problem: CO2 avoidance in cars is already comparatively expensive

CO2 avoidance in cars is expensive and would be cheaper to obtain in other sectors

The reduction costs differ greatly from sector to sector. The avoidance of car emissions by means of improved technologies is relatively expensive, and these costs will continue to

increase. Sector-based reduction targets lead to high additional costs in the economy. In the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), permissible emissions are offset by carbon credits. One credit allows the emission of a

tonne of CO2. The trade with carbon credits ensures that the emission volume stipulated by the EU is generated where the reductions are least

expensive

+

0 100 200 300 400

Manuf. figures 2014*

IKA Aachen 2012

IKA Aachen (2016)

IKA Aachen (2021)

Hydroelectric power

Wind power

Carb. credit price today

Target price for 2020

Cars

Electricity

In € per tonne

5.338

150

500

1.250

8.688750

Cars

Carbon credits

Hydroelectri…

Wind power

Cars

Carbon credits

Assumption: CO2 emissions in Europe are to be reduced by 25 million tonnes. Comparison of the resulting costs today and in 2020 in millions of euros**

Heute

2020

99

CO2 market

Outlook



Source: Daimler

Absolute car emissions

in millions of tonnes of CO2

Relative car emissions

in g CO2/km

Based on model calculation. With today’s regulation, an emissions reduction of 30 per cent is achievable between 2005 and 2030. This corresponds to the EU target for non-ETS sectors

Efficient new vehicles impact the vehicle fleet

The average consumption of the existing fleet is only gradually reacting to the more efficient new vehicles. That is why a difference can be seen between the emissions of new vehicles and the entire fleet.

The gap will close once most of the older vehicles with higher emissions are taken off the roads. Based on a conservative estimate, the ongoing replacement of old vehicles will result in car traffic emissions in Europe decr easing by approximately 30 per cent

by 2030, compared to the year 2005.

Until 2014, the fleet was dominated by vehicles built before 2005. Several million of these vehicles will still be on the road in 2030. The advancements of recent years will long continue to have an impact on the vehicle fleet. Even if new vehicles were to hardly show improvements after 2021,

the fleet emissions would continue to decrease. In regard to cars, the EU target can be achieved with the existing regulation

+

90

110

130

150

170

190

2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029

New vehicles

Entire fleet

40gr

22gr

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029

Vehicles built before 2005

Vehicles built since 2005

-32%

100Outlook



Sources: EU, UN

WLTP: Depiction of a car ride, based on worldwide averages

NEDC: Introduced in 1996 to calculate exhaust emissions

WLTP: A new test requires new limit values

► A test cycle should facilitate legally compliant comparability.► There are various cycles today. The EU and China use the NEDC, while the USA and Japan have their own tests.► The figures on car emissions depend heavily on the test cycle; they are not simply convertible.► Trials show that higher emissions levels are identified in the WLTP than in the NEDC. With the introduction of the WLTP, the

regulation of limit values will have to start completely afresh.► But: Even WLTP is “only” a test. It facilitates comparability under standardised conditions; hence, it represents an

approximation of global driving behaviour, yet does not determine a value that is achievable in all contexts.

+

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

The WLTP is intended to apply

globally. Manufacturers’test costs are expected to be reduced through

the implementationof the WLTP.

Speed in km/h

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

Low Middle High Extra high

Time in seconds

101Outlook


102

Limits of standardization in RDE consumption measuring

RDE Tests: wide dispersion even with maximum standardization

1 Expected dispersion of the results: 8 gCO2/kmMeasurement technology

• Standardised PEMS-systems per vehicle (homogeneous within the measuring organisation)• Calibration of the PEMS-system by aligning with test bed measurments• But: the achievable measurement inaccuracy using the up-to-date technique lies around±2,5 per

cent.

Ein einzelner Wert kann nur einen Mittelwert darstellen.

2 Environment & driver Expected dispersion of the results: 10 gCO2/km

• Defined environmental conditions (moderate temperatures, favourable weather, gentle wind at maximum)

• Trained driver, who refer to the shift point display and create reproducable results

• But: Slight variations, for example in wind and driving style lead to visible deviations.

3 Route Expected dispersion of the results: 12 gCO2/km

4 Vehicle

• Trips on a reference line in the same time and driving direction

• No fixed time slots but adaption to comparable traffic volume on the reference line

• But: density of traffic, average speed and shares of start/stop are not reproducable.

• Comparable vehicle, as far as the status of running-in, technical upgrades, inflation pressure etc. isconcerned

• Comparable use of vehicles: additional load, electrical consumers, window opening or driving mode

• But: reactions to environmental conditions ( e.g. temperature) affect the consumption.

Expected dispersion of the results: 6 gCO2/km

CO2-Regulation in EuropeOutlook



The system of regulating limit values levels exhibits structural problems.

Inaccurate: The greatest disadvantage is the lack of precision, since the regulations affect potential emissions rather than actual emissions.

Expensive: Technology-driven savings in road traffic represent one of the most expensive possibilities for reducing CO2 emissions.

Long-dated: It will still take years before the full impact of already-achieved improvements is reflected in statistics.

An acute continuation of the regulation of limit values does not currently appear very promising. Alternatives to the current system must be sought.

Summary: Limits of the system

Outlook

Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPollitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends

103

Vehicle limit values only regulate potential emissions.

The actual emissions are determined just as much by drivers as by the infrastructure.


To reduce emissions, drivers and the government need to be involved in the process

Improved regulation: Emissions standards for vehicles fall too short

+

Integrated approach: Include all areas in the regulation process

Optimisation of combustion engine Alternative fuels Lightweight construction Switching to electric powertrains Use of digitalisation (avoidance of

parking-related traffic)

Route (how much?)

Driving style(how?)

Vehicle selection (with what?)

Infrastructure conditions Construction site management Promotion of transmissions

and fuels that produce fewer emissions Replacement of existing vehicles

Total emissions in tonnes = Consumption in litres * Emissions factor in kg CO2/litre * Mileage

DriverAutomotive industry Government

Outlook


104

An integrated approach prevents rebound effects and can considerably increase savings.

Various instruments are needed in order to enhance all potential savings.


Source: ACEA

Estimate based on road freight traffic

Integrated approach: Future regulation must cover all areas

+

Kraftstoffe

Vehicle-related measures

Vehicle Trailer Tyres Alternative fuels

Vehicle operation

Operation Infrastructure Fleet replacement

Efficient engines

Aero-dynamics

Assisted driving systems

Permissible size (more transport volume)

Aerodynamics Lightweight

construction Assisted

driving systems

Low-resistance tyres

Air pressurecontrols

Super Singles

Second-generation biofuels Synthetic fuels Natural gas (LNG)

Driver training

Route planning

Volume utilisation

Improved infrastructure(road closures, detours)

Telematics Congestion

control

Replacement of Euro 0–III vehicles(approx. 5% additional fleet replacement)

CO

2-e

mis

sio

ns

CO

2-Em

issi

on

en

-6% -2,5% -13%+ + = -21,5%

105

Fuels

Outlook



One stop towards an integrated approach would be the inclusion of road traffic in emissions trading. Fuel consumption can be precisely calculated in emissions. Heavy trucks cannot be integrated in the existing system of limit values; this is not a problem in emissions trading. The question remains as to who should make the carbon credits available

Emissions trading in road traffic: Is that possible?

Pros

Cons

Upstream – Tankstellenbetreiber

The corresponding carbon credits must be purchased for every litre sold. 1L Benzin = 2,3 kg CO2

1L Diesel = 2,6 kg CO2

Easy to implement technicallyLittle demand from the well-financedActual emissions are limited

It only indirectly addresses those who are actually generating the emissions. The connection to the driver is the price signal, as in the case of a fuel tax.

+

+

–

+

Midstream – Autohersteller

When a new vehicle is sold, a volume of carbon credits must be purchased that corresponds to the car’s expected emissions in its lifetime. In the case of 130 g CO2/km und 200.000 km: carbon

credits for 26 tonnes

Little demand from the well-financed

Inaccurate: The purchased amount represents a theoretical volume.The manufacturer only determines the potential emissions, not the actual emissions.The manufacturer only has an indirect influence over actual CO2 emissions.

+

–

–

–

106Outlook



The inclusion of road traffic in emissions trading offers certain benefits

Emissions trading: A useful supplement

Simple: The necessary amount of carbon credits per tank filling is easy to calculate. The required purchase can be paid for with the fuel.

Inexpensive for the driver: Based on the EU’s targeted price of 30 euros per carbon credit in the year 2020, a litre of petrol would cost 7 euro cent more.

Inexpensive for society: The abatement costs of road traffic are far above 30 euros per tonne. Emissions are avoided where it is cheaper to do so.

But: Since the transportation sector would be purchasing so many carbon credits, other sectors would have to substantially step up their reduction efforts. Good judgment will be necessary in order to avoid an overload in the other sectors.

Thus: Emissions trading is a useful supplement to today’s limit values.

+ETS Filling StationMain Street 111, 12345 New TownStation no. : 000000000xyzStation tax no. : 13/456/xyzxyzCompany tax no. : 01 234 56789Receipt no.1234/005/00001 03.03.2021 9:22Card payment

*Super 65,13 EUR A #** Pump 03 43,45 l 1,499 EUR/l #*

*EU-ETS carbon credits 3,04 EUR #* C** 43,45l x 2,33 kg CO2/l = 101,24 kg CO2

* x 30,00 EUR/Credit for 1.000 kg CO2

Total 68,17 EUR

Type Net VAT GrossA: 19,00% 54,73 10,40 65,13C: 0,00% 3,04 0,00 3,04

Thank you for your visit. Have a safe trip!

107Outlook



The inclusion of road traffic in emissions trading serves as a useful supplement to the prevailing system of limit values.

› Emissions trading would increase the precision of the regulation, since it factors in the influence of the driver on the emissions that are produced.

› Emissions trading would also apply to freight transport – an area that is difficult to incorporate in the current system of limit values.

› Emissions trading would lead to lower reduction costs for the overall economy, since road traffic would enter the carbon credit market as more of a buyer.

But: Oil prices continue to create pressure to innovate, but there are several factors that speak in favour of setting a new limit value for the long term.

Summary: Alternatives

Ausblick

Grenzen des Systems Alternativen KernthesenPolitischer Rahmen Verkehrssektor Andere SektorenMegatrends

108


The core theses: Brief overview

109

Climate protection

1. Europe’s share of the worldwide CO2 emissions is low and continuously decreasing. (100)

2. No solution without China: Europe’s reduction of emissions is being eaten up by growth in emerging economies. (103)

3. Motor vehicles account for approximately one-seventh of the CO2 emissions in the EU. Their share in transportation emissions is declining. (106)

CO2 regulation for motor vehicles

4. New vehicles in Europe have become considerably more efficient in recent years. (108)

6. Europe has once again tightened the reins on the CO2 limit values for motor vehicles and is requiring a further reduction of CO2 within an even shorter span of time. (112)

5. CO2 legislation in Europe shows the most stringent target values in an international comparison. (110)

8. Vehicle fleet limit values under 95 grams cannot be achieved with conventional engine types, and the market success of alternative engine types is still uncertain. (116)

7. Even without a further tightening of the CO2 limit values after 2020, the motor vehicle industry is still on track to meet the EU’s climate policy targets by 2030. (114)

9. EU environmental legislation is not coherent and, for a long time, had other priorities than CO2 reduction. This had various consequences, including an increase of CO2 emissions. (119)

10. Today’s CO2 laws regulate only new vehicles, completely disregarding the remaining vehicle fleet. (122)

11. An effective reduction of CO2 emissions cannot address new vehicles alone but must take a much broader approach. (124)

Balance between climate protection and industrial policy

12. The EU is targeting a 20% industry share of GDP for the year 2020. This goal is presently a long way away, since industrial and climate protection policy are not yet aligned. (126)

13. The CO2 abatement costs vary greatly between sectors and are most pronounced in the automotive sector. (129)

14. Emissions trading as the most economically efficient form of CO2 regulation can easily be applied to road traffic. (131)


Europe’s share of the worldwide CO2 emissions is low and continuously decreasing.

Core theses: Climate protection

1

Outlook

Core thesesAlternativesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends Limits of the system



Emissions from fuel use, in millions of tonnes

CO2 emissions: Europe’s share sharply decreasing

10,3% 14,8%28,1%

23,4%23,2%

15,5%

19,6% 16,1% 9,9%

46,7% 45,9% 46,5%

1990 2002 2015

China USA EU Rest of the world

20.502 23.884

► Compared to the year 1990, the absolute CO2 emissions are decreasing in the EU only. The decline in the year 2015 amounts to 823 Million tons.

► In Asia in particular, emissions are rapidly increasing except for Japan.

► The impact of European regulations on global CO2

emissions continues to decline.

+32.294

Outlook




Emissions from fuel use* – Changes between 1990 and 2015, in millions of tonnes

Reduction in Europe, strong increase in Asia

While China shows an increase of approximately 331 per centduring the years 1990–2015, the EU shows a decrease of 21,5 per cent.

China still postet a growth in 2014 by a good 110 million tons. Whereas in 2015 emissionsstagnated in China.

India increased it’s emissions in2014 by nearly 170 Millionen tons, that is more than China. Also in 2015 emissions continuedto grow in India.

+

-823,0

+ 1.536,6

+ 6.975,4

EU India China

* Entspricht der Kategorie 1A nach UNFCCC Klassifikation

Outlook



No solution without China: Europe’s reduction of emissions is being eaten up by growth in emerging economies.


2

Outlook



Sources: EEA, 2018 (v21); IEA, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion – 2017

EU passenger cars: Relevant, yet not crucial

CO2 emissions, in millions of tonnes

Relevant: Europe’s total passenger car traffic emitted a good 526 million tonnes of CO2

in 2015; that is an increasecompared with 2014.

Crucial? In just three weeksChina emits through its use offossil fuels more CO2 comparedto the car traffic in the EU – a fast growing trend.

Dynamic: Between the years2014 and 2015 the plus in China amounted to around 9,1 per centor 60 millions of tonnes. thiscorresponds to about 40 per centof the emissions on German roads.

+

450

554 538

63

372

698

121

375

523

EU Passenger car

traffic

China Road traffic

China CO2 emissions in 21 days

Outlook



Motor vehicles account for approximately one-seventh of the CO2 emissions in the EU. Their share in transportation emissions is declining.


3

Outlook



* For information only; ** Not including international air and maritime traffic. These are not classified as national emissions in the context of the Kyoto report.Source: EEA, 2018 (v21)

Figures for 2016, as percentage CO2EQ

CO2 emissions in the EU 28

Transportation sector by mode of transport

7,2%12,1%

47,7% 43,7%

26,4% 27,5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2016

CommercialVehiclesPassenger Cars

Civil aviation(national)Rail transport

WaterwaytransportOther

Int. aviation*

Int. seafaring*

Emissions according to sector

29,9%

21,3%9,9%

13,4%

10,8%

14,7%

Generationof heatand energy

Industry

Passenger cars

Othersectors

Other modes of transport**

Agriculture

Outlook




Absolute CO2EQ-emissions, 1990 = 100

Car traffic in the EU: CO2-emissions rising again

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

road cars

128,3

122,2123,1

116,5

► Car emissions have shown a much lower rate of increase than overall road traffic emissions.

► Car emissions have largely stagnated since 2002 and have been rapidly declining in 2011 but they are rising again since 2013.

+

117Outlook



New vehicles in Europe have become considerably more efficient in recent years.

Core theses: CO2 regulation for motor vehicles

4

Outlook



Sources: EEA, 2017

Emissions of new vehicles are falling rapidly

Country Average CO2-emissions ofnew cars 2016 in g per km

Changes from 2007 until 2016, in per cent

Portugal 104,7 -27,25

Nehterlands 105,9 -35,98

Denmark 106,0 -33,73

Greece 106,3 -35,69

France 109,8 -26,51

Croatia 111,5 n.a.Malta 111,8 -24,42

Ireland 112,0 -30,69

Italy 113,3 -22,59

Spain 114,4 -25,33

Belgium 115,9 -24,15

Slowenia 119,0 -23,86

Finland 120,0 -32,37

UK 120,1 -27,08

Austria 120,4 -26,03

Czech Republic 121,2 -21,47

Rumania 122,0 -21,32

Sweden 123,1 -32,30

Cyprus 123,5 -27,48

Bulgaria 124,8 -27,51

Slowakia 124,8 -18,21

Poland 125,8 -18,09

Hungary 125,9 -18,77

Luxembourg 126,1 -23,94

Lithuania 126,2 -28,05

Germany 126,9 -23,95

Latvia 128,9 -29,75

Estonia 133,9 -26,27

< 110 g per km

< 120 g per km

< 125 g per km

≥ 125 g per km

CO2 emissionsHigher

Emissionsin the east. Five

EU-countriesunder

110

119Outlook



Source: ACEA, 2016

CO2-emissions of new cars in the EU in per cent

High-emisson cars are on the decline

► Already today the mass of newcars emits clearly less than 130 g CO2/km.

► High-emission cars are on thedecline. In 1995 80 per cent of thenew cars emitted more than 160 g CO2/km .

► More than 1/10 of the new carsalready reach the target of theyear 2021.

+

97%

75%

22%

3%

25%

66%

11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1995 2008 2016

> 130 g 96 g - 130 g <95 g

120Outlook


121

CO2 legislation in Europe shows the most stringent target values in an international comparison.


5

Outlook



* In the legislative processSource: ICCT, 2016

In g CO2/km, under the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC)

The most stringent CO2 target values for new vehicles

► The EU emission standard for 2021 is the most stringent standard in the world.► Even in 2025 it is unlikely that any country on earth will have a more stringent limit values than the one

stipulated by the EU for 2021.

► In November 2017 the EU commission suggested to lower the limit between 2021 and 2025 by 15 per cent andto stipulate a minus of 30 per cent until the year 2030.

+

Actual levels 2002 – 2016

*

122

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

US EU Japan China

205

172

187

152

118

115

151

213

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

95

117

Adopted for 2020 - 2025

105

125

97

81*

Outlook



Europe has once again tightened the reins on the CO2 limit values for motor vehicles and is requiring a further reduction of CO2 within an even shorter span of time.


6

Outlook


80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700

Fiat RenaultToyota

Ford

VWOpel

MazdaHyundai

BMW

Daimler

EU: fleet 2006

EU: target curve 2015

EU: target curve 2021

9 years

6 years

Actual level of 2016

Audi


Sources: EU, EEA

in g CO2/km

CO2 target values for 2021: High demands on the automotive industry

In spite of the relation of specific targets to weight: Producer of large cars need to reduce to a greater amount than high-volume manufacturer.

In the nine years from 2006 to 2015, a reduction of the average emissions by 30 g CO2/km was required of new vehicles – from 160 g CO2/km down to 130 g CO2/km.

Speeding up the pace: In the six years from 2015 to 2021, average emissions must be reduced by 35 g CO2/km – from 130 g CO2/km down to 95 g CO2/km. For the year 2025 the proposal 81 g CO2/km has been raised by the commission, that is a minus of 14 g CO2/km in four years.

+Average weight of new passenger cars in kg

130

95

160

124Outlook



Even without a further tightening of the CO2 limit value after 2020, the motor vehicle industry is still on track to meet the EU’s climate policy targets by 2030.


7

Outlook



Source: Daimler

Based on model calculation. With today’s regulation, an emissions reduction of 30 per cent is achievable between 2005 and 2030. This corresponds to the EU target for non-ETS sectors.

Efficient new vehicles impact the vehicle fleet

The average consumption of the existing fleet is only gradually reacting to the more efficient new vehicles. That is why a difference can be seen between the emissions of new vehicles and the entire fleet.

The gap will close once most of the older vehicles with higher emissions are taken off the roads. Based on a conservative estimate, the ongoing replacement of old vehicles will result in car traffic emissions in Europe decreasing by approximately 30 per cent

by 2030, compared to the year 2005.

Until 2014, the fleet was dominated by vehicles built before 2005. Several million of these vehicles will still be on the road in 2030. The advancements of recent years will long continue to have an impact on the vehicle fleet. Even if new vehicles were to hardly show improvements after 2021,

the fleet emissions would continue to decrease. In regard to cars, the EU target can be achieved with the existing regulation.

90

110

130

150

170

190

2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029

New vehicles Entire fleet

40gr22gr

Relative car emissionsin g CO2/km

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029

Vehicles built before 2005

Vehicles built since 2005

-32%

Absolute car emissionsin millions of tonnes of CO2

+

126Outlook



Vehicle fleet limit values under 95 grams cannot be achieved with conventional engine types, and the market success of alternative engine types is still uncertain.


8

Outlook



Source: TU Graz, 2018

CO2 emissions of a middle class car depending on different drives types and speed

Speed makes the difference

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

CO

2in

g/k

m

v in km/h

HBEFA Cycles with 0% gradiant

Euro 6 Diesel Plug-In-Hybrid Tank-to-Wheel

Euro 6 Petrol Plug-In-Hybrid Well-to-Wheel

Outlook


Source: EU Komission, Own calculations

Emissions from PHEV arecalculated on the basis ofthe emissions in combustion operations and of theelectric coverage of the car.

Firstly the PHEV participatesin the European testing cycle(NEDC) in combustionoperations.

Then it runs the cycle drivenon electrical energy as longas the battery lasts.

Depending on the such determined coverage of thecar a pro rata deductionfrom the emissions in pure combustion operations isapplied.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77Electric coverage in kilometers in NEDC testing cycle

Emissions calculations for PHEV

Allo

cate

dem

issi

on

sin

co

mb

ust

ion

op

erat

ion

sin

per

cen

t

With a 25 km Electric coverage

of the carthe deduction

of 50per cent

is applied.


Outlook



Source: ev-sales.blogspot, 2018


New vehicles and top-selling models of the year 2017

Electric cars: hardly any global models

1. Tesla S2. Chevrolet Bolt3. Tesla X4. Toyota Prius PHV5. Chevrolet Volt

1. Renault Zoe2. BMW i33. Mitsubishi Outlander4. Nissan Leaf5. Tesla S

1. Volkswagen E Golf2. BMW i33. Tesla X4. Mitsubishi Outlander5. Tesla S

1. BAIC EC Series2. Zhidou D2 EV3. BYD Song PHEV4. Chery eQ5. JAC iEV6S/E

World 20171.224.103

Market share1.1%

Market share2.4%

Market share2.1%

Market share39.2%





An effective reduction of CO2 emissions cannot address new vehicles alone but must take a much broader approach.


9

Outlook



Quel le: ACEA, 2017; VDA ,2017

Existing vehicles are not covered by the regulation

Limit values affect only new vehicles

► Each year, only about 5 per cent of the vehicle fleet in the EU is replaced.

► Existing vehicles hold huge potential for CO2 reduction.

► That is why measures for replacing the existing vehicle fleet are essential

+

Approx. 15.1 million new vehicles are licensed in the EU each year.

Alltogetherapprox. 255 Millionen cars

are licensed in the EU.

132Outlook


► Vehicle limit values only regulate potential emissions.

► The actual emissions are determined just as much by drivers as by the infrastructure


To reduce emissions, drivers and the government need to be involved in the process

Improved regulation: Emissions standards for vehicles fall too short

+

Integrated approach: Include all areas in the regulation process

Optimisation of combustion engine Alternative fuels Lightweight construction Switching to electric powertrains Use of digitalisation (avoidance of

parking-related traffic)

Route (how much?)

Driving style(how?)

Vehicle selection (with what?)

Infrastructure conditions Construction site management Promotion of transmissions

and fuels that produce fewer emissions Replacement of existing vehicles

Total emissions in tonnes = Consumption in litres * Emissions factor in kg CO2/litre * Mileage

DriverAutomotive industry Government

133Outlook



The EU is targeting a 20% industry share of GDP for the year 2020. This goal is presently a long way away, since industrial and climate protection policy are not yet aligned.

Core theses: Balance between climate protection and industrial policy

10

Outlook



Source: Eurostat

The manufacturing industry’s share of the gross value, as percentage

The EU industrial sector: Collapse rather than rebirth

► EU target: The industrial sector is expected to have a 20 per cent share of the GDP in 2020.

► Germany is reaching this target. The UK, Italy and France give cause for concern.

► Countries outside of Europe are improving quickly. Europe must respond in order to secure its position.

EU targetfor 2020

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Germany Spain France Italy UK EU 28

+

135Outlook



The CO2 abatement costs vary greatly between sectors and are most pronounced in the automotive sector.

Core theses: Balance between climate protection and industrial policy

11

Outlook



* Extrapolation from published reports ** Calculated based on the average va lue of the respective line.Sources: : AGFW, IKA Institut für Kraftfahrzeuge Aachen, EU

Expensive CO2 avoidance leads to excess burden.

Problem: CO2 avoidance in cars is already comparatively expensive.

CO2 avoidance in cars is expensive and would be cheaper to obtain in other sectors

The reduction costs differ greatly from sector to sector. The avoidance of car emissions by means of improved technologies is relatively expensive, and

these costs will continue to increase. Sector-based reduction targets lead to high additional costs in the economy. In the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), permissible emissions are offset by carbon credits.

One credit allows the emission of a tonne of CO2. The trade with carbon credits ensures that the emission volume stipulated by the EU is

generated where the reductions are least expensive.

+

0 100 200 300 400

Manuf. figures 2014*

IKA Aachen 2012

IKA Aachen (2016)

IKA Aachen (2021)

Hydroelectric power

Wind power

Carbon credit price today

Zielpreis 2020

Cars

Electricity

CO2 market

In € pro Tonne Assumption: CO2 emissions in Europe are to be reduced by 25 million tonnes. Comparison of the resulting costs today and in 2020, in millions of euros**

5.338

150

500

1.250

8.688

750

Cars

Carboncredits

Hydroelectricpower

Wind power

Cars

Carboncredits

Today

2020

Outlook



Emissions trading as the most economically efficient form of CO2 regulation can easily be applied to road traffic.

Core theses: CO2 regulation motor vehicles

12

Outlook



One stop towards an integrated approach would be the inclusion of road traffic in emissions trading. Fuel consumption can be precisely calculated in emissions. Heavy trucks cannot be integrated in the existing system of limit values; this is not a problem in emissions trading. The question remains as to who should make the carbon credits available:

Emissions trading in road traffic: It that possible?

Pro

Contra

Midstream: Car manufacturers

When a new vehicle is sold, a volume of carbon credits must be purchased that corresponds to the car’s expected emissions in its lifetime. In the case of 130 g CO2/km and 200.000 km:

carbon credits for 26 Tonnes

Little demand from the well-financed

Inaccurate: The purchased amount represents a theoretical volume.The manufacturer only determines the potential emissions, not the actual emissions.The manufacturer only has an indirect influence over actual CO2 emissions.

+

–

–

–

Upstream: Filling station operators

The corresponding carbon credits must be purchased for every litre sold. 1L petrol = 2,3 kg CO2

1L diesel = 2,6 kg CO2.

Easy to implement technicallyLittle demand from the well-financedActual emissions are limited.

It only indirectly addresses those who are actually generating the emissions. The connection to the driver is the price signal, as in the case of a fuel tax.

+

+

–

+

Outlook



The inclusion of road traffic in emissions trading offers certain benefits

Emissions trading: A useful supplement

+ Simple: The necessary amount of carbon credits per

tank filling is easy to calculate. The required purchase can be paid for with the fuel.

Inexpensive for the driver: Based on the EU’s targeted price of 30 euros per carbon credit in the year 2020, a litre of petrol would cost 7 euro cent more.

Inexpensive for society: The abatement costs of road traffic are far above 30 euros per tonne. Emissions are avoided where it is cheaper to do so.

But: Since the transportation sector would be purchasing so many carbon credits, other sectors would have to substantially step up their reduction efforts. Good judgment will be necessary in order to avoid an overload in the other sectors.

Thus: Emissions trading is a useful supplement to today’s limit values.

ETS Filling StationMain Street 111, 12345 New TownStation no.: 000000000xyzStation tax no.: 13/456/xyzxyzCompany tax no.: 01 234 56789Receipt no. 1234/005/00001 03.03.2021 9:22Card payment

*Super 65.13 EUR A #**Pump 03 43.45 l 1.499 EUR/l #*

*EU ETS carbon credits 3.04 EUR C* #** 43.45 l x 2.33 kg CO2/l = 101.24 kg CO2

* x 30.00 EUR/credit for 1,000 kg CO2

Total 68.17 EUR

Type Net VAT GrossA: 19.00% 54.73 10.40 65.13C: 0.00% 3.04 0.00 3.04

Thank you for your visit. Have a safe trip!

Outlook


iwkoeln.de

[email protected]

0221 4981-766

Puls, Thomas

http://www.iwkoeln.de/

142

Gestrichene Folien, die nicht mehr aktualisiert werden

Annex


Quel le: Europäische Kommission

Anteil importierter Primärenergieträger am Verbrauch in Prozent

Der Verbrauch an Öl und Gas kann nicht aus heimischen Quellen gedeckt werden

Rohstoffe: Hohe Importabhängigkeit der EU

► Kaum Reserven: Die EU verfügt nur über1-3 Prozent der Reserven an fossilen Primärenergieträgern.

► Erschöpft: Die europäische Förderung von Öl und Gas sinkt.

► Problem: Auch wenn der Verbrauch sinkt, bestehen politische Abhängigkeiten von den Förderländern.

82% 84%

93% 94%

58%62%

76%83%

2005 2008 2020 2030

Öl Gas

+

Megatrends

CO2-Emissionen Kraftstoffe Globalisierung Politischer Rahmen Verkehrssektor Andere Sektoren Ausblick


*Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, VietnamQuel le: Internationaler Währungsfonds, World Economic Outlook April 2017

Wachstumsprognosen in Prozent

Aufholprozess in Asien setzt sich fort

2,0

1,7

1,6

2,3

2,0

6,6

2,6

7,2

5,0

2,0

1,6

1,5

2,5

1,5

6,2

3,0

7,7

5,2

2017 2018

OECD

Eurozone

Deutschland

USA

Großbritannien

China

Südkorea

ASEAN 5*

► Das globale Wachstum bleibt auf Asien fokussiert.

► Die OECD-Länder verlieren weiter an Gewicht.

+

Indien

144Megatrends


60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140

Durchschnitt

Durch-schnitt

Schwach und aufholend Stark und voranschreitend

Stark und zurückfallend


Quel le: IW Consult (2014)

Der Standortvorteil vieler OECD-Staaten schrumpft

Niveau und Dynamik der Standortqualität

Dynamikindex 1995 - 2015

Niveauindex 2015

Schwach und zurückfallend

► China holt qualitativ zu den etablierten Industrie-ländern auf.

► Gemessen am globalen Durchschnitt haben sich viele OECD-Standorte seit 1995 auf ihrer starken Stellung ausgeruht.

+

145Megatrends



Quel le: EU

Anzahl der EU-Vorschriften für Gesundheit, Sicherheit und Umwelt

Die Regelungsdichte in Europa ist sehr hoch und wird immer dichter

940998

1.084997

1.1051.223

1.386

1.560

1.724

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

► Die ohnehin schon hohe Regelungsdichte in der EU nimmt immer weiter zu.

► Die verschiedenen Ziele und Regulierungen der EU neigen dazu, sich zu widersprechen.

► Um alle Ziele zu ver-folgen, braucht es vor allem eine bessere Regulierung.

Politischer Rahmen

Klimapolitik Regulierungsdichte und Zielkonflikte Verkehrssektor Andere Sektoren AusblickMegatrends

+

146


Quel le: EU (TREMOVE)

Schadstoffemissionen in der EU-27 in Tonnen

Der Straßenverkehr ist sauberer geworden – trotz gestiegener Verkehrsmengen

► Seit Ende der 80er Jahre lag der Fokus der Politik auf der Schadstoffreduktion. Schadstoffe sind bei Kontakt gesundheitsgefährdend. Das Treibhausgas CO2 ist somit kein Schadstoff.

► Obwohl die Fahrleistungen stark gewachsen sind, gehen die Schadstoffemissionen der Kfz deutlich zurück.

+

Stickoxide (NOx)Partikelmasse (PM)

0

1.000.000

2.000.000

3.000.000

4.000.000

5.000.000

6.000.000

2000 2010 Prognose 2020

-42%

-28%

-34%

-54%

-36%

-37%0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

2000 2010 Prognose 2020

Pkw

Lkw >7,5t

Sonstige

-62%

-58%

-58%

-41%

-58%

-61%

Politischer Rahmen


147


Verbrauchsentwicklung schwerer Lkw im Praxistest* in Liter Diesel auf 100 km

Der Kraftstoffverbrauch der Fahrzeuge sinkt langsamer

Mit Ankündigung der Euro-I-Norm im Jahr 1988 kam die Verbrauchsreduktion der von der Redaktion getesteten Fahrzeuge fast zum Stillstand.

Die gefahrene Ø Geschwindigkeit stieg aber weiter an und die Schadstoffemissionen nahmen drastisch ab.

Aber: Kein wissenschaftlicher Vergleichstest, denn die von Markt nachgefragten und getesteten Fahrzeuge (Leistung, Fahrzeughöhe) und Verkehrslage auf den Teststraßen (Geschwindigkeit, Staugefahr) haben sich im Zeitablauf stark verändert.

+

* 800 km Rundkurs auf deutschen StraßenQuelle: transaktuell 10/2014

30

35

40

45

50

55

1966 1975 1981 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

1993Euro I

1996Euro II 2001

Euro II I 2005Euro IV 2008

Euro V

2011Erste Euro VI Lkw im Test

2010Neue Teststreckemit mehr Steigungen-31%

1977Erster Lkw unter 40 l

1988Zuggewicht auf 40 t erhöht

-8%

Politischer Rahmen


148


Quel le: lastauto omnibus, Heft 10/2016

Kraftstoffverbräuche

Nach Streckenart in Litern pro 100 km

Gut 22 Prozent weniger Verbrauch vergleichbarer Lkw

Lkw von 1996: Euro 2Testgewicht: 39.240 kgNennleistung: 435 PSØ Geschwindigkeit: 83,7 km/h



Von der DEKRA begleiteter Straßentest (Dauer: 4 Tage; Fahrleistung: ca. 2.000 km je Testfahrzeug). Die Test-Lkw repräsentieren drei unterschiedliche Fahrzeuggenerationen des selben Herstellers. Die getesteten Fahrzeuge entsprechen in Bezug auf die Leistung den heute üblichen Anforderungen. Moderne Technik und Assistenzsysteme unterstützen den Fahrer beim verbrauchsarmen Fahren.

+

Technische Daten des Tests

Verbrauchsrelevante Faktoren

149Politischer Rahmen


46,4

35,6

40,842,6

32,4

37,436,7

27,3

31,9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Schwere Strecke Leichte Strecke Durchschnitt imTest

-21% -23% -22%


Quel le: BMW

CO2-Einsparung pro Euro Herstellungskosten

CO2-Reduktion: Künftig wird es teurer

► Die einfachen und billigen Optionen werden zuerst ergriffen, daher ist die permanente Beschleunigung des Reduktionstempos ein Problem.

► Der Verbrauch lässt sich nicht beliebig reduzieren. Ohne Elektrifizierung werden neue Grenzwerte nicht zu schaffen sein, Hersteller großer Pkw müssen bereits jetzt elektrifizieren.

+

Elektro-auto

Schaltpunkt-anzeige

Voll-Hybrid

Mild-Hybrid Plug-in-

Hybrid

Aerodynamik,Rollwider-stand

Optimiertes Getriebe Brems-

kraftrück-gewinnung

IntelligenteHilfs-systeme

Start-Stop-Funktion

Hoch-präzise Einspritz-systeme

Wärme-manage-ment

Diesel

Volumenhersteller

Premiumhersteller

130 g CO2/km 95 g CO2/km

95 g CO2/km130 g CO2/km

Verkehrssektor

Politischer Rahmen Andere Sektoren AusblickMegatrends Verkehr heute CO2-Emissionen Straße Effizienz Straße Regulierung Straße

150

Sparsam ist gefragt.*Frage: What is the fuel economy you will expect in your new car as an average range of liter per 100 km?


* Befragung von 1.500 Neuwageninteressenten in den drei größten Märkten EuropasQuel le: PwC

Aber: Der Markthochlauf stockt

E-Autos: Nur ohne Mehrkosten*Frage: How much would you be prepared to pay for a hybrid drive / electric drive?

9%

7%

24%

34%

26%

Keine Mehrkosten Bis 500 €

501 - 1.000 € 1.001 - 2.000 €

mehr als 2.000 €

13%

41%

35%

8%

2%1%

< 3 Liter 3 - 5 Liter

5,1 - 7 Liter 7,1 - 9 Liter

> 9 Liter Elektroantrieb

Hybride

46%

12%

15%

23%

Elektro

Verkehrssektor

Politischer Rahmen Andere Sektoren AusblickMegatrends Verkehr heute CO2-Emissionen Straße Effizienz Straße Regulierung Straße

151


Quel len: Bosch, Odyssee Database 2014

Die Ökodesignrichtlinie führt zum Verbot von Stromfressern.

Der Energieverbrauch von Haushalts-geräten ist zwischen 1999 und 2014 stark gefallen.

Ökodesignrichtlinie: Verbot von starken Stromverbrauchern

► Die Ökodesignrichtlinie legt Anforderungen für energieverbrauchsrelevante Produkte fest.► Ein Produkt, welches zu viel Strom verbraucht, darf nicht mehr ausgeliefert werden.► Die Effizienz des Ansatzes ist umstritten. Strom unterliegt bereits dem Emissionshandel

und der Beitrag durch effizientere Haushaltsgeräte ist gering.► Der Verkauf von Lagerbeständen bleibt zulässig. Dieses Schlupfloch führte zum Hamstern von Glühbirnen.

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Stromaufnahmeleistung von Staubsaugern in Watt

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Durchschnitt

2013

Grenzwert 2014 Grenzwert 2017

-44%

Energieverbrauchssenkungbis zu … Prozent

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0%

Kühlschränke

Gefriergeräte

Waschmaschinen

Geschirrspüler

Trockner

Verbreitung in Europaauf 100 Haushalte kommen … Geräte

105

64

92

56

34

Andere Sektoren

Strom Industrie HaushaltePolitischer Rahmen Verkehrssektor AusblickMegatrends

152


Quel le: Hochtief, 2012

Vermeidungskosten pro Tonne CO2in Euro

Beispielfall

Viel Potenzial für relativ geringe Kosten

Mehrfamilienhaus Baujahr 1972

Fläche: 62.030 m2

Finanzierung: Zinssatz 4% über 15 Jahre

► Vermeidungskosten sind immer Ergebnis einer Einzelfallbetrachtung.► Es gilt das Prinzip der fallenden Grenzerträge: Je mehr man einspart, desto teurer wird der nächste Schritt.► Problem: Vollsanierungen lohnen sich ohne Förderung nur selten. Auch energetische Sanierungen scheitern oft an den

Kosten.► Folge: Das Tempo der energetischen Sanierungen ist zu gering. Es müsste etwa verdoppelt werden, um die Ziele der Politik

bis 2020 zu erreichen.

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1337

223

-54%-61%

-74%

Maßnahme Maßnahme Maßnahme

1 1 2 1 2 3+ + +

CO2-Reduktion

1 Umrüstung von Nachtspeicher auf Zentralheizung

2 Zentrale Trink-wasserwärmung

3 Komplette Bausanierung

Andere Sektoren

Strom Industrie HaushaltePolitischer Rahmen Verkehrssektor AusblickMegatrends

153

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