CMD s Q2 2016 April 2016 Construction Starts …constructconnect.s3.amazonaws.com/Forecast...

CMD’s Q2 2016 Construction Starts Forecast Report

April 2016

Employment gains and rising real wages should drive solid growth in US household spending over the next two years. Nonetheless, the economy is facing continued headwinds in 2016 from a strong dollar, sluggish global trade and weak capex demand from the oil and gas sector. Given these headwinds and low inflation, we do not expect the Fed to increase interest rates again until September. US GDP is expected to expand by 2.0% in 2016, with growth accelerating to 2.4% in 2017.

US construction starts came in slightly ahead of forecast in Q1 2016. Looking ahead, construction activity is expected to be a key driver of economic growth over the next two years. Rising incomes and employment should underpin residential construction starts, while a continued need to upgrade infrastructure will boost engineering projects. At the same time, with interest rates near historic lows, financing construction projects can be done on favorable terms.

The low oil price has weighed heavily on business investment in the Canadian economy and there is little chance of an imminent rebound. Affected most have been Canadian civil engineering construction starts. After shrinking 27.3% last year, starts of civil engineering projects are expected to fall by a further 11.9% in 2016. This is having a further impact on proximate sectors, such as oil-related services, with a feed through onto private office construction. Nonetheless, some sectors, such as roads, transport terminals and hospitals are benefitting from higher government spending, so should see solid growth in the medium-term at least.

ContentsSummary forecasts (table) and Overview ......................... 2Drivers of headline sectors (table) ................................... 3US type-of-structure forecasts (table) ............................. 5US type-of-structure forecasts - INSIGHT (table) ............. 6US states, total construction starts (table) ...................... 7US four largest states: type-of-structure forecasts (table) .. 8US type-of-structure forecasts (charts) ........................... 9Canada type-of-structure forecasts (table) ..................... 12Canada type-of-structure forecasts - INSIGHT (table) .... 13Canadian provinces, total construction starts (table) ...... 14Canada four largest provinces: type-of-structure forecasts (table) .............................. 14Canada type-of-structure forecasts (charts) ................... 15

Highlights

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Sources: CMD (formerly Reed Construction Data)/Oxford Economics. Forecast reflects actual starts through Q1 2016.

The U.S. construction unemployment rate in March was 8.7%, a decent enough improvement from 9.5% at the same time last year. At least the horror of a 27% construction-sector unemployment rate in February 2010 has receded into the six-years-ago past.

CMD


©2016 CMD. All Rights Reserved. Sources: CMD/Oxford Economics. 2

OverviewUS construction starts surprise to the upside in Q1

US construction starts came in ahead of our forecast in Q1 with the strength being widespread across most sub-segments. In residential construction, year-on-year growth was positive in both the single-family and multi-family segments. Nonresidential construction starts grew by 11.8% year-on-year, with particularly solid performances from both private and government office buildings, parking garages and military construction. The strength in private office building is particularly noteworthy, since it is one of the largest sub-segments and had fallen short of expectations through much of 2014 and 2015. Starts of civil engineering projects grew by 5.8% year-on-year, boosted by the construction of bridges, power infra-structure and roadbuilding.

Other indicators of the health of the US construction sector are broadly positive. Construction sector employment increased by 75,000 jobs in the first quarter (on a sea-sonally adjusted basis), and construction sector hourly wages rose by 2.4% year-on-year over the same period. Job growth on the design side of building has also been strong; employment at architectural and engineering firms increased by 10,200 in Q1. Put-in-place construction has been growing at a double-digit annual pace, although this measure tends to lag rather than lead starts.

GDP on course for 2% growth, but headwinds continue to blow

Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.4% in Q4 2015. Consumer spending and residential investment supported growth while business investment and net trade acted as drags to economic activity. The economy has continued to add jobs, with payroll employment rising by a solid 215,000 in March, wages rebounding by 0.3% on the month and the participation rate rising to 63%. We expect wage growth to pick up this year as labor market slack dissipates. Solid consumer confidence, steady increases in employment and rising real wages should

support consumer spending growth of around 2.5% in 2016 and 2017. Accelerating housing activity should also boost growth over the next two years, driven by low mort-gage rates, reduced home price inflation and stronger wage growth.

But headwinds to economic growth con-tinue to blow. A strong dollar, sluggish global growth and reduced oil and gas investment will continue to constrain the pace of eco-nomic growth. These factors are expected to weigh on business investment and trade through 2016. GDP is expected to grow by 2.0% in 2016, strengthening to 2.4% in 2017.

The Fed’s favored inflation gage remains well below the 2% target, but strengthening activity should push inflation closer to 2% during 2016. Recent commentary from the Fed has generally been cautious, and FOMC members have highlighted concerns about

sluggish foreign demand, risks of renewed financial market turbulence and declining inflation expectations. We expect the Fed will wait until September before raising interest rates, and we see another rate hike in December, followed by three more in 2017.

Construction activity is a key driver of growth

Looking ahead, construction activity is expected to be a key driver of US growth over the next two years. Rising household income and employment will underpin growth in the residential sector and will drive activity in more consumer-focused non-residential sectors. Meanwhile, a con-tinued need to upgrade infrastructure will drive growth in the civil engineering seg-ment, although the low oil price will con-

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Table 1: Summary forecasts(Annual percentage changes unless specified otherwise)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020US

Macro variables

GDP 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.1Population growth 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8Unemployment rate (%) 6.2 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8Real disposable income 2.7 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.9Central bank rate (%) 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.0 2.8 3.210-year government yield (%) 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.6Construction starts (y/y % change of $ volumes)Total starts 8.5 5.8 7.4 6.3 5.4 4.6 4.4Residential 7.1 10.2 12.5 8.9 7.5 6.2 5.8Non-res bldg 9.4 -0.8 5.4 4.7 3.9 3.2 3.0Civil engineering 9.7 9.7 1.5 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.6CanadaMacro variablesGDP 2.5 1.2 1.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1Population growth 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9Unemployment rate (%) 6.9 6.9 7.3 7.2 6.9 6.7 6.5Real disposable income 1.0 2.6 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.9Central bank rate (%) 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.110-year government yield (%) 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.7Exchange rate C$ per US$ 1.10 1.28 1.35 1.33 1.31 1.30 1.27Construction starts (y/y % change of $ volumes)Total starts 12.9 -13.7 -5.5 9.6 8.0 6.5 5.9Residential 9.0 -0.6 -2.1 2.5 4.0 4.3 3.6Non-res bldg -6.8 10.8 3.6 9.8 5.4 4.0 2.9Civil engineering 23.0 -27.3 -11.9 14.3 11.8 9.1 8.7



strain investment in mining projects. With interest rates remaining near historic lows, construction projects can be financed on favorable terms. Total construction starts are expected to rise by 7.4% in 2016 and 6.3% in 2017.

Residential construction starts are expected to be the major driver of growth, with a double-digit rise pencilled in for 2016. The single-family segment is gener-ally expected to outpace the multi-family segment over the forecast period. Single-family construction starts fell steeply during the financial crisis as people switched to renting, typically the preserve of multi-family accommodation. But as wage and employment growth have started to recover, demand for single-family housing has improved. This is further helped by demo-graphic factors, as the millennial genera-tion is starting to reach child-bearing age, thereby demanding larger houses. Although we also expect growth in the multi-family segment this year, the outlook is relatively constrained compared to the single-family sector. Multi-family starts have nearly recovered to their pre-crisis level, so there is less pent-up demand in the multi-family segment.

After declining in 2015, construction of nonresidential buildings is expected to rise by 5.4% this year, boosted by growth of around 7% expected in both the commer-cial and institutional segments. Construc-tion of private office buildings, which has fallen for two consecutive years, is likely to post particularly buoyant growth this year. Office vacancies are on a decisively downward trend, suggesting that there is likely significant pent-up demand for office space, particularly given the declining starts seen in the previous two years. Similarly, construction of government offices is also expected to return to growth this year. Hotel construction is also booming. Appe-tite for hotel construction dried up in the wake of the global financial crisis, but travel and tourism are growing strongly and hotel occupancy rates are high, so there is con-siderable pent-up demand. However, hotel construction is forecast to flatten out by the end of the forecast period, in part driven by increased competition from new room-booking services such as AirBnb.

Starts in the institutional categories are also set to perform well this year. Renewed geopolitical conflict has spurred con-struction in military facilities. Military construction starts were up 384% on the year in the first quarter of 2016, and are expected to grow by nearly 30% in 2016 as a whole. Construction of hospitals is also forecast to pick up this year following rela-tively weak growth in recent years. Demo-graphic factors should ultimately support growth in the medical segment as the population ages, but there could be some near-term uncertainty as the Affordable Care Act continues to generate contro-versy, particularly in a presidential elec-tion year.

In contrast, factory building is expected to be a weak point in the nonresidential sector in 2016. Sector starts increased by 34% in 2015, but they tend to be dominated by megaprojects, so a strong rise in one year is likely to be followed by a reversion to the mean in the following year. More-over, the broader US manufacturing sector has been struggling to grow decisively since 2015, resulting from the impact of a strong dollar, anaemic external growth and low investment demand from the energy sector. Since late-2015, the manu-facturing ISM index has been hovering just below the 50-mark that demarcates expansion from contraction, although it rose slightly above 50 in March. However, in the longer-term, underlying structural

factors should support solid US manu-facturing growth. A competitive US labor force, a trend towards just-in-time manu-facturing and cheap energy make the US an attractive location for firms to reshore production.

Growth in civil engineering construc-tion starts is set to moderate in 2016 after posting almost 10% growth in 2015. In par-ticular, the miscellaneous civil engineering segment, which includes most energy con-struction projects, is expected to decline in 2016 as mining firms retrench capital spending. However, as investment declines and unprofitable firms eventually leave the market, prices should eventually rise, so construction in this segment is expected to rebound in the medium-term. More tra-ditional infrastructure sub-sectors, such as road building and bridge construction, should see stronger growth in 2016 and into the medium-term, driven by the ongoing need to upgrade American infrastructure. Indeed, in the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitive Indicators on infra-structure quality, the US ranks 13th globally behind several countries in Europe, Asia and the Middle East. The political climate in the US is slowly warming to more infrastructure spending, with both political parties increas-ingly receptive towards more spending. For example, in December 2015, Congress passed a bipartisan $305bn highway bill that covers federal funding on transport infra-structure over the next five years.

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Table 2: Drivers of headline sectors Sector Short-term drivers Long-term drivers

Residential Unemployment rate; Household liabilities;

Mortgage interest rates; House prices;

Population trends

House prices; Incomes

Non-residential building Output trends in relevant sector; Population trends;

Capacity utilization; Borrowing costs;

Employment in relevant sector; Disposable income

Output trends in relevant sector; Employment in relevant sector

Civil engineering Federal/State/Provincial spending; Government borrowing costs;

Employment in government sector; Output trends in relevant sector

Federal/State/Provincial spending; Output trends in relevant sector



Canadian outlookCanadian construction starts were

extremely weak in Q1 2016, falling 47.7% below their level in Q1 2015. The slump was widespread across the three major sub-sec-tors of residential, nonresidential and civil engineering. The sharpest declines were felt in the civil engineering sector, which contracted by 63% from a year earlier, with the biggest decline in the miscellaneous civil category. Nonresidential activity also fell steeply, down 50% year-on-year, with particularly stark declines seen in manu-facturing, hospitals and transportation ter-minals. Residential construction contracted by a more muted 15.8% year-on-year with all of the decline coming from the multi-family segment; single-family housing starts actually increased by 16% on the year in Q1.

Shrinking business investment has been a major drag to Canadian economic activity, driven largely by plunging global oil prices undermining capital spending in the oil and gas sector. With the oil price set to remain at a low level through 2016, there is little chance of an imminent rebound in sector investment. While falling investment and declining energy sector activity drag on the overall economy, the consumer spending outlook is relatively upbeat, driven by rising employment and growing real wages. Government spending on infrastructure projects should provide a further boost to growth. GDP is seen growing by just 1.1% in 2016, little changed from its pace last year, rising to 2.2% in 2017.

Total civil engineering starts, which account for the largest share of Canadian construction starts, are expected to shrink by 11.9% in 2016 following a 27.3% decline in 2015. As in the US, falling capex in the mining sector is a major contributing factor to this weakness. Miscellaneous civil engi-neering starts declined by 75% in 2015, with even steeper declines seen in the energy regions of the Atlantic provinces and Sas-katchewan (starts in Alberta fell by a mere 69%). Taken in this context, the 0.1% increase pencilled in for the sector in 2016 is still extremely weak. 2015 starts in other engineering sub-segments, such as bridges, dams/canal/marine projects, and power infrastructure, were all boosted by mega-projects. Since we do not expect this to be repeated in 2016, these three sub-segments are all expected to decline this year. In the medium-term, however, construction of engineering projects should strengthen, driven by an eventual recovery in the oil sector, as well as increased government investment in transport and renewable energy infrastructure.

Much of the Q1 weakness in non-resi-dential building is perhaps a bit more sur-prising, since some of the sectors which experienced the largest declines are priority spending areas for the Trudeau government, notably transportation terminals and hos-pitals. However, the year-on-year contrac-tions in both of these sectors were likely the result of a normalization following strong growth in Q1 2015; once the impact of this drops out of the year-on-year growth calcu-

lation, both sectors should rise rapidly into the medium-term. As in the US, construc-tion of hospitals will be further boosted by the rising healthcare needs of an aging pop-ulation. Indeed, non-residential building is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2016 as a whole, strengthening to almost 10% growth in 2017.

However, other non-residential sub-sec-tors are expected to perform less well over the forecast period. The apparent strength in the forecast for industrial starts needs to be seen in context of a 61.9% decline in 2015; by 2020, industrial construction is still seen below its level in 2014, despite the weak dollar and some potential benefits from the new TPP deal opening up new markets. Unlike in the US, private sector office building is expected to shrink this year. The weakness in the oil sector has spilled over into related services, with starts in Calgary in particular bearing the brunt – office vacancies in Calgary have risen to the highest rate in more than 30 years.

After falling in 2015, residential con-struction starts are expected to shrink again in 2016. Concerns about overheating in housing markets in the major cities, par-ticularly in extraction regions, is likely to weigh on growth this year. Alberta resi-dential starts fell over 20% in 2015 with a similar decline expected this year. Over the medium term, Canadian residential con-struction does not have the same cyclical driving factors that are present in the US, and concerns about overheating in the housing market could weigh on growth.

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Table 3: U.S. Type-of-Structure Forecasts($ Billions USD)

Actuals Forecasts2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Single-family 151.209 173.434 199.102 218.693 236.877 253.296 270.221

Multi-family 50.871 49.259 51.415 54.024 56.334 57.953 59.204

TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 202.080 222.693 250.517 272.717 293.211 311.249 329.425 (Yr/yr % change) 7.1% 10.2% 12.5% 8.9% 7.5% 6.2% 5.8%Hotels/Motels 8.791 10.043 10.850 11.238 11.629 11.906 12.118Shopping/Retail 18.371 20.082 20.540 21.310 22.077 22.841 23.748Parking Garages 2.008 2.281 2.490 2.528 2.619 2.688 2.757Amusement 7.195 6.143 6.286 6.682 6.863 7.059 7.211Private Offices 17.718 12.596 15.020 16.218 17.051 17.908 18.686Govenmental Offices 11.175 9.830 11.458 11.989 12.591 13.200 13.822Laboratories (Schools & Industrial) 2.374 2.251 2.431 2.641 2.794 2.901 3.017Warehouses 7.395 10.736 10.409 10.732 11.374 11.873 12.322Sports Stadium/Convention Center 6.596 6.897 6.695 7.095 7.282 7.477 7.673Transportation Terminals 9.421 7.108 8.004 8.802 9.703 10.505 11.251TOTAL COMMERCIAL 91.045 87.968 94.183 99.236 103.983 108.359 112.605 (Yr/yr % change) 5.0% -3.4% 7.1% 5.4% 4.8% 4.2% 3.9%TOTAL INDUSTRIAL (manufacturing) 9.617 12.982 10.452 11.279 11.830 12.315 12.756 (Yr/yr % change) 19.3% 35.0% -19.5% 7.9% 4.9% 4.1% 3.6%Religious 1.451 1.596 1.692 1.760 1.797 1.830 1.858Hospitals/Clinics 14.153 12.521 14.728 15.806 16.781 17.602 18.421Nursing Homes/Assisted Living 4.152 5.081 4.999 4.998 5.228 5.402 5.593Libraries/Museums 2.262 1.978 2.197 2.245 2.282 2.322 2.358Courthouse 1.063 1.169 1.277 1.258 1.266 1.276 1.298Police/Fire 1.750 1.963 2.194 2.258 2.313 2.358 2.401Prisons 1.210 2.733 2.522 2.602 2.654 2.695 2.735Military 10.790 5.851 7.594 8.171 8.777 9.305 9.765Educational Facilities 55.984 56.907 58.740 60.576 61.633 62.124 62.675MED misc 2.527 2.921 3.218 3.259 3.373 3.511 3.655TOTAL INSTITUTIONAL 95.342 92.722 99.164 102.933 106.104 108.426 110.758 (Yr/yr % change) 12.6% -2.7% 6.9% 3.8% 3.1% 2.2% 2.2%Miscellaneous Non-Res Building 3.951 4.607 5.183 5.401 5.463 5.596 5.728TOTAL NON-RES BLDG 199.955 198.279 208.981 218.849 227.381 234.695 241.847 (Yr/yr % change) 9.4% -0.8% 5.4% 4.7% 3.9% 3.2% 3.0%Airport 3.262 3.145 3.186 3.239 3.308 3.394 3.479Roads 47.258 51.457 54.065 56.052 57.887 59.918 61.738Bridges 11.403 12.678 13.740 14.648 15.711 16.752 17.863Dams/Canal/Marine 5.069 5.880 5.344 5.336 5.383 5.444 5.542Water & Sewage Treatment 25.745 28.393 27.908 29.140 30.301 31.625 32.951Misc Civil (Power, etc.) 18.123 20.100 19.230 19.683 20.170 20.591 21.049TOTAL ENGINEERING 110.860 121.653 123.473 128.098 132.759 137.724 142.623 (Yr/yr % change) 9.7% 9.7% 1.5% 3.7% 3.6% 3.7% 3.6%TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL 310.815 319.932 332.454 346.947 360.140 372.419 384.470 (Yr/yr % change) 9.5% 2.9% 3.9% 4.4% 3.8% 3.4% 3.2%GRAND TOTAL 512.894 542.626 582.972 619.664 653.351 683.669 713.895 (Yr/yr % change) 8.5% 5.8% 7.4% 6.3% 5.4% 4.6% 4.4%

EXPLANATION: Table 3 conforms to the type-of-structure ordering adopted by many firms and organizations in the industry. Specifically, it breaks non-residential building into ICI work (i.e., industrial, commercial and institutional), since each has its own set of economic and demographic drivers.

Table 4 presents an alternative, perhaps more user-friendly and intuitive, type-of-structure ordering that matches how the data appears in CMD’s on-line product ‘Insight’.

Source of actuals: CMD “Insight” / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD / Table: CMD.


6©2016 CMD. All Rights Reserved. Sources: CMD/Oxford Economics.

Table 4: U.S. Type-of-Structure ForecastsArranged to match the alphabetical category drop-down menus in INSIGHT ($ Billions USD)


SummaryCIVIL 110.860 121.653 123.473 128.098 132.759 137.724 142.623NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 199.955 198.279 208.981 218.849 227.381 234.695 241.847RESIDENTIAL 202.080 222.693 250.517 272.717 293.211 311.249 329.425GRAND TOTAL 512.894 542.626 582.972 619.664 653.351 683.669 713.895

VerticalsAirport 3.262 3.145 3.186 3.239 3.308 3.394 3.479All Other Civil 17.812 18.615 17.743 18.139 18.566 18.932 19.340Bridges 11.403 12.678 13.740 14.648 15.711 16.752 17.863Dams / Canals / Marine Work 5.069 5.880 5.344 5.336 5.383 5.444 5.542Power Infrastructure 0.311 1.484 1.488 1.544 1.605 1.659 1.708Roads 47.258 51.457 54.065 56.052 57.887 59.918 61.738Water and Sewage Treatment 25.745 28.393 27.908 29.140 30.301 31.625 32.951

CIVIL 110.860 121.653 123.473 128.098 132.759 137.724 142.623 (Yr/yr % change) 9.7% 9.7% 1.5% 3.7% 3.6% 3.7% 3.6%

Offices (private) 17.718 12.596 15.020 16.218 17.051 17.908 18.686Parking Garages 2.008 2.281 2.490 2.528 2.619 2.688 2.757Transportation Terminals 9.421 7.108 8.004 8.802 9.703 10.505 11.251

Commercial 29.147 21.985 25.514 27.548 29.373 31.101 32.694 (Yr/yr % change) -17.7% -24.6% 16.1% 8.0% 6.6% 5.9% 5.1%

Amusement 7.195 6.143 6.286 6.682 6.863 7.059 7.211Libraries / Museums 2.262 1.978 2.197 2.245 2.282 2.322 2.358Religious 1.451 1.596 1.692 1.760 1.797 1.830 1.858Sports Arenas / Convention Centers 6.596 6.897 6.695 7.095 7.282 7.477 7.673

Community 17.505 16.614 16.870 17.783 18.225 18.688 19.100 (Yr/yr % change) 32.7% -5.1% 1.5% 5.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.2%

College / University 20.230 18.678 17.659 17.869 18.058 18.245 18.490Elementary / Pre School 17.041 18.650 20.497 22.064 22.793 22.998 23.160Jr / Sr High School 17.596 18.142 19.149 19.305 19.445 19.541 19.675Special / Vocational 1.115 1.437 1.435 1.338 1.337 1.341 1.350

Educational 55.984 56.907 58.740 60.576 61.633 62.124 62.675 (Yr/yr % change) 16.2% 1.6% 3.2% 3.1% 1.7% 0.8% 0.9%

Courthouses 1.063 1.169 1.277 1.258 1.266 1.276 1.298Fire and Police Stations 1.750 1.963 2.194 2.258 2.313 2.358 2.401

Government Offices 11.175 9.830 11.458 11.989 12.591 13.200 13.822

Prisons 1.210 2.733 2.522 2.602 2.654 2.695 2.735Government 15.198 15.696 17.452 18.106 18.824 19.529 20.255 (Yr/yr % change) 10.8% 3.3% 11.2% 3.8% 4.0% 3.7% 3.7%

Industrial Labs / Labs / School Labs 2.374 2.251 2.431 2.641 2.794 2.901 3.017Manufacturing 9.617 12.982 10.452 11.279 11.830 12.315 12.756Warehouses 7.395 10.736 10.409 10.732 11.374 11.873 12.322

Industrial 19.386 25.970 23.292 24.653 25.997 27.089 28.095 (Yr/yr % change) 35.5% 34.0% -10.3% 5.8% 5.5% 4.2% 3.7%

Hospitals / Clinics 14.153 12.521 14.728 15.806 16.781 17.602 18.421Medical Misc. 2.527 2.921 3.218 3.259 3.373 3.511 3.655Nursing Homes 4.152 5.081 4.999 4.998 5.228 5.402 5.593

Medical 20.832 20.523 22.946 24.063 25.382 26.515 27.669 (Yr/yr % change) -9.9% -1.5% 11.8% 4.9% 5.5% 4.5% 4.4%Military 10.790 5.851 7.594 8.171 8.777 9.305 9.765 (Yr/yr % change) 113.7% -45.8% 29.8% 7.6% 7.4% 6.0% 4.9%

Hotels 8.791 10.043 10.850 11.238 11.629 11.906 12.118Retail Misc. 3.951 4.607 5.183 5.401 5.463 5.596 5.728Shopping 18.371 20.082 20.540 21.310 22.077 22.841 23.748

Retail 31.113 34.732 36.574 37.949 39.169 40.344 41.594 (Yr/yr % change) 4.5% 11.6% 5.3% 3.8% 3.2% 3.0% 3.1%

NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 199.955 198.279 208.981 218.849 227.381 234.695 241.847 (Yr/yr % change) 9.4% -0.8% 5.4% 4.7% 3.9% 3.2% 3.0%

Multi-Family 50.871 49.259 51.415 54.024 56.334 57.953 59.204Single-Family 151.209 173.434 199.102 218.693 236.877 253.296 270.221

RESIDENTIAL 202.080 222.693 250.517 272.717 293.211 311.249 329.425 (Yr/yr % change) 7.1% 10.2% 12.5% 8.9% 7.5% 6.2% 5.8%GRAND TOTAL 512.894 542.626 582.972 619.664 653.351 683.669 713.895 (Yr/yr % change) 8.5% 5.8% 7.4% 6.3% 5.4% 4.6% 4.4%






Table 5: U.S. States, Total Construction Starts − CMDActuals

(Level in $ Millions USD) Forecasts (Year versus previous year % change)

States (alphabetical) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Alaska $2,284 -29.7% -9.8% 5.2% 4.4% 3.6%Alabama $6,802 22.3% 4.3% 6.3% 5.5% 5.0%Arkansas $4,765 6.2% 1.1% 6.7% 6.0% 5.2%Arizona $10,489 21.2% 11.6% 6.1% 5.6% 4.6%California* $46,550 14.5% 13.5% 4.5% 3.8% 9.4%Colorado $12,148 -3.6% 0.9% 5.3% 4.8% 4.1%Connecticut $4,288 28.0% 14.6% 4.5% 3.3% 2.2%District Of Columbia $1,690 59.3% 12.9% 3.6% 2.1% 1.9%Delaware $1,769 16.5% 10.6% 5.6% 4.9% 4.2%Florida* $33,883 16.6% 4.4% 5.7% 5.0% 4.0%Georgia $15,717 34.6% 4.4% 5.4% 4.7% 4.0%Hawaii $2,744 9.9% 4.1% 4.4% 3.6% 3.0%Iowa $6,347 -21.9% -3.6% 4.9% 4.5% 3.8%Idaho $3,376 -3.3% 8.4% 5.6% 5.3% 4.4%Illinois $16,239 -4.2% 13.2% 4.1% 3.4% 2.8%Indiana $7,742 36.5% 7.9% 5.1% 4.6% 4.1%Kansas $5,882 -26.4% -1.1% 5.0% 4.5% 3.7%Kentucky $6,323 12.6% -8.7% 5.6% 5.1% 4.5%Louisiana $12,766 -37.7% 13.1% 6.3% 5.0% 4.2%Massachusetts $10,875 16.1% 2.3% 5.3% 3.9% 2.6%Maryland $8,297 63.3% 2.6% 4.0% 3.4% 2.6%Maine $1,481 27.2% 16.9% 4.4% 4.0% 3.3%Michigan $11,556 -4.5% -3.3% 5.2% 4.6% 3.8%Minnesota $9,718 -1.5% 4.7% 4.8% 4.3% 3.7%Missouri $8,549 3.3% 3.7% 4.6% 4.1% 3.2%Mississippi $4,905 -5.3% 6.1% 5.4% 4.9% 4.4%Montana $1,831 -23.8% 14.6% 5.1% 4.8% 3.9%North Carolina $19,761 10.2% 10.8% 7.1% 5.7% 4.9%North Dakota $4,458 -55.8% -6.4% 7.1% 6.1% 5.0%Nebraska $3,541 6.0% -1.0% 5.1% 4.8% 3.9%New Hampshire $1,647 35.7% 13.1% 5.8% 4.2% 3.0%New Jersey $8,591 24.0% 12.0% 4.7% 3.8% 3.0%New Mexico $2,580 16.5% 7.7% 5.9% 5.2% 4.3%Nevada $7,630 -4.8% -3.8% 6.0% 4.9% 3.6%New York* $35,703 -8.9% 7.5% 5.0% 3.7% 2.6%Ohio $13,768 10.0% 7.9% 4.2% 3.7% 3.1%Oklahoma $8,026 0.3% 1.0% 6.1% 5.6% 4.7%Oregon $6,719 21.8% -1.4% 5.4% 5.3% 4.5%Pennsylvania $16,573 19.4% 8.0% 5.2% 3.8% 3.1%Rhode Island $1,214 21.6% 15.9% 4.7% 3.2% 2.0%South Carolina $11,106 3.8% -1.8% 5.9% 5.7% 5.0%South Dakota $2,445 -37.5% -3.7% 6.2% 5.2% 4.0%Tennessee $13,489 1.3% 1.2% 5.7% 5.4% 4.5%Texas* $75,672 12.5% 6.0% 6.6% 5.6% 4.7%Utah $6,975 8.9% -8.1% 4.8% 5.1% 3.8%Virginia $14,455 17.6% 14.5% 4.7% 4.1% 3.2%Vermont $1,207 -18.4% 24.1% 5.8% 4.7% 4.2%Washington $15,161 -0.8% 9.4% 6.4% 5.5% 4.4%Wisconsin $7,940 -3.6% 2.1% 4.4% 3.9% 3.2%West Virginia $2,441 -24.4% 23.6% 4.8% 4.0% 3.7%Wyoming $2,507 -51.0% 2.1% 5.8% 4.9% 4.0%United States $542,626 7.4% 6.3% 5.4% 4.6% 4.4%

*One in three Americans lives in one of the four shaded states, New York, Florida, Texas or California. Sum of first column may not exactly equal total due to rounding.




Table 6: U.S. Four Largest States: Type-of-Structure Forecasts($ Billions USD)


New York Residential 15.718 14.719 11.162 10.105 10.729 11.227 11.511

Non-res Building 20.439 13.230 14.011 17.139 17.953 18.490 18.752

Engineering/Civil 6.335 7.754 7.348 7.706 8.009 8.320 8.763Total 42.492 35.703 32.520 34.950 36.691 38.036 39.025

(Yr vs previous yr % Change) 12.9% -16.0% -8.9% 7.5% 5.0% 3.7% 2.6%Florida Residential 13.830 17.750 20.302 21.381 23.011 24.465 25.674 Non-res Building 7.593 9.668 12.636 12.911 13.368 13.821 14.063


(Yr vs previous yr % Change) -7.2% 28.4% 16.6% 4.4% 5.7% 5.0% 4.0%Texas Residential 31.747 36.741 43.621 49.760 54.243 58.245 61.986 Non-res Building 17.694 26.410 26.538 26.518 27.491 28.316 28.623


(Yr vs previous yr % Change) 10.8% 26.8% 12.5% 6.0% 6.6% 5.6% 4.7%California Residential 16.225 16.551 18.655 20.958 22.288 23.249 26.420

Non-res Building 22.043 19.249 21.374 24.741 25.621 26.548 30.772Engineering/Civil 10.847 10.750 13.292 14.837 15.328 15.867 14.615Total 49.115 46.550 53.321 60.537 63.237 65.664 71.808

(Yr vs previous yr % Change) 8.2% -5.2% 14.5% 13.5% 4.5% 3.8% 9.4%

Source of actuals: CMD “Insight” / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD. Table: CMD.

U.S. retail sales in February that were +3.1% year over year in total including gas station billings, were a much better +4.8% without them. In Canada, a jump in total retail sales in January of +6.8% improved to an outstanding +7.3% when sales at the pump were omitted.

@CMD_GroupLLC

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Source of actuals: CMD “Insight” / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD / Chart: CMD.



Graph 1: U.S. Total Construction Starts – CMD

Graph 3: U.S. Total Non-Residential Building Starts – CMD

Graph 2: U.S. Total Residential Construction Starts – CMD

Source of actuals: "Insight" CMD / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD. Chart: CanaData-CMD.

U.S. Grand Total Construction Starts - CMD

Name of this file: "Forecast Check (OE) U.S. Starts $s (Dec 15).xlsx

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Graph 7: U.S. Warehouse Construction Starts – CMD

Graph 9: U.S. Hospital and Clinic Construction Starts – CMD

Graph 8: U.S. Manufacturing Construction Starts – CMD

Graph 10: U.S. Total Educational Construction Starts – CMD


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Name of this file: "Forecast Check (OE) U.S. Starts $s (Jul 15).xlsx

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Source of actuals: CMD “Insight” / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD / Chart: CMD. Source of actuals: CMD “Insight” / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD / Chart: CMD.

Graph 11: U.S. Total Heavy Engineering/Civil Construction Starts – CMD Graph 12: U.S. Roadwork Construction Starts – CMD


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Graph 13: U.S. Bridge Construction Starts – CMD

Graph 15: U.S. Four Largest States (by Population): Total Construction Starts – CMD

Graph 14: U.S. Water and Sewage Treatment Construction Starts – CMD

Graph 16: U.S. Four Largest States: Total Residential Construction Starts – CMD


U.S. Bridge Construction Starts - CMD


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Name of this file: "Largest States & Provinces (Jan 16).xlsx" in U.S. 2014 file/Starts Forecasts

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Graph 17: U.S. Four Largest States: Total Non-residential Building Starts – CMD

Graph 18: U.S. Four Largest States: Total Engineering/ Civil Construction Starts – CMD


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Table 7: Canada Type-of-Structure Forecasts($ Billions CAD)


Single-family 14.126 12.877 13.389 13.577 14.202 15.099 15.877

Multi-family 12.145 13.247 12.200 12.662 13.099 13.372 13.607

TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 26.271 26.124 25.589 26.239 27.301 28.471 29.484 (Yr/yr % change) 9.0% -0.6% -2.1% 2.5% 4.0% 4.3% 3.6%Hotels/Motels 0.408 1.072 1.173 1.177 1.119 1.039 0.945Private Offices 2.266 2.614 2.200 2.356 2.412 2.478 2.536Govenmental Offices 1.696 1.565 1.644 1.706 1.769 1.833 1.891Shopping/Retail 1.861 1.199 1.299 1.352 1.410 1.472 1.517Retail Miscellaneous 0.440 0.526 0.529 0.600 0.660 0.699 0.726Parking Garages 0.091 0.166 0.173 0.181 0.189 0.196 0.201Amusement 1.186 1.450 1.419 1.564 1.671 1.754 1.818Warehouses 0.733 0.882 0.951 1.000 1.049 1.094 1.126TOTAL COMMERCIAL 8.681 9.474 9.389 9.938 10.280 10.563 10.759 (Yr/yr % change) -21.1% 9.1% -0.9% 5.9% 3.4% 2.8% 1.9%TOTAL INDUSTRIAL (manufacturing) 2.220 0.845 0.945 1.331 1.582 1.798 1.963 (Yr/yr % change) 64.4% -61.9% 11.8% 40.9% 18.9% 13.6% 9.2%Religious 0.130 0.148 0.151 0.166 0.175 0.183 0.187Hospitals/Clinics 1.390 2.320 2.726 3.299 3.542 3.738 3.896MED misc 0.634 0.890 0.956 1.023 1.058 1.094 1.118Transportation Terminals* 0.399 0.803 0.752 0.912 1.009 1.067 1.103Police/Fire 1.199 0.613 0.723 0.807 0.888 0.912 0.933Educational Facilities 3.205 4.693 4.856 5.032 5.183 5.316 5.439TOTAL INSTITUTIONAL 6.958 9.466 10.164 11.240 11.854 12.310 12.676 (Yr/yr % change) 2.2% 36.0% 7.4% 10.6% 5.5% 3.8% 3.0%TOTAL NON-RES BUILDING 17.859 19.786 20.497 22.509 23.716 24.671 25.398 (Yr/yr % change) -6.8% 10.8% 3.6% 9.8% 5.4% 4.0% 2.9%Bridges 1.615 6.399 4.424 4.258 4.159 4.206 4.269Dams/Canal/Marine 0.099 0.412 0.314 0.317 0.323 0.327 0.331Water & Sewage Treatment 3.504 3.864 3.738 3.933 4.015 4.091 4.143Roads 6.458 7.857 8.261 8.882 9.358 9.826 10.090Power Infrastructure 6.534 13.508 10.314 11.654 12.416 12.808 13.049All Other Civil (Oil & Gas etc.) 39.538 9.956 9.962 13.280 17.030 20.331 24.185TOTAL ENGINEERING 57.748 41.996 37.013 42.324 47.301 51.589 56.068 (Yr/yr % change) 23.0% -27.3% -11.9% 14.3% 11.8% 9.1% 8.7%TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL 75.607 61.781 57.511 64.833 71.017 76.260 81.466 (Yr/yr % change) 14.4% -18.3% -6.9% 12.7% 9.5% 7.4% 6.8%GRAND TOTAL 101.878 87.906 83.099 91.072 98.318 104.731 110.949 (Yr/yr % change) 12.9% -13.7% -5.5% 9.6% 8.0% 6.5% 5.9%

* With respect to Tables 3 and 7, ‘transportation terminals’ is the one type-of-structure that is categorized differently in Canada (institutional) than in the U.S. (commercial), for reasons having to do with government statistics.





13©2016 CMD. All Rights Reserved. Sources: CMD/Oxford Economics.

Table 8: Canada Type-of-Structure ForecastsArranged to match the alphabetical category drop-down menus in INSIGHT ($ Billions CAD)


SummaryCIVIL 57.748 41.996 37.013 42.324 47.301 51.589 56.068NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 17.859 19.786 20.497 22.509 23.716 24.671 25.398RESIDENTIAL 26.271 26.124 25.589 26.239 27.301 28.471 29.484GRAND TOTAL 101.878 87.906 83.099 91.072 98.318 104.731 110.949

VerticalsAll Other Civil 39.538 9.956 9.962 13.280 17.030 20.331 24.185Bridges 1.615 6.399 4.424 4.258 4.159 4.206 4.269Dams / Canals / Marine Work 0.099 0.412 0.314 0.317 0.323 0.327 0.331Power Infrastructure 6.534 13.508 10.314 11.654 12.416 12.808 13.049Roads 6.458 7.857 8.261 8.882 9.358 9.826 10.090Water and Sewage Treatment 3.504 3.864 3.738 3.933 4.015 4.091 4.143

CIVIL 57.748 41.996 37.013 42.324 47.301 51.589 56.068 (Yr/yr % change) 23.0% -27.3% -11.9% 14.3% 11.8% 9.1% 8.7%

Offices (private) 2.266 2.614 2.200 2.356 2.412 2.478 2.536Parking Garages 0.091 0.166 0.173 0.181 0.189 0.196 0.201Transportation Terminals 0.399 0.803 0.752 0.912 1.009 1.067 1.103

Commercial 2.757 3.583 3.125 3.450 3.610 3.740 3.839 (Yr/yr % change) 0.6% 30.0% -12.8% 10.4% 4.6% 3.6% 2.7%

Amusement 1.186 1.450 1.419 1.564 1.671 1.754 1.818Religious 0.130 0.148 0.151 0.166 0.175 0.183 0.187

Community 1.316 1.598 1.570 1.731 1.846 1.937 2.005 (Yr/yr % change) -53.7% 21.5% -1.8% 10.2% 6.6% 4.9% 3.5%Educational 3.205 4.693 4.856 5.032 5.183 5.316 5.439 (Yr/yr % change) -17.7% 46.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.0% 2.6% 2.3%

Fire and Police Stations 1.199 0.613 0.723 0.807 0.888 0.912 0.933Government Offices 1.696 1.565 1.644 1.706 1.769 1.833 1.891

Government 2.895 2.178 2.367 2.513 2.657 2.744 2.823 (Yr/yr % change) 35.7% -24.8% 8.7% 6.2% 5.7% 3.3% 2.9%

Manufacturing 2.220 0.845 0.945 1.331 1.582 1.798 1.963Warehouses 0.733 0.882 0.951 1.000 1.049 1.094 1.126

Industrial 2.953 1.727 1.896 2.331 2.631 2.891 3.089 (Yr/yr % change) 49.6% -41.5% 9.8% 23.0% 12.9% 9.9% 6.8%

Hospitals / Clinics 1.390 2.320 2.726 3.299 3.542 3.738 3.896Medical Misc. 0.634 0.890 0.956 1.023 1.058 1.094 1.118

Medical 2.024 3.210 3.682 4.322 4.600 4.832 5.014 (Yr/yr % change) 11.6% 58.6% 14.7% 17.4% 6.4% 5.0% 3.8%

Hotels 0.408 1.072 1.173 1.177 1.119 1.039 0.945Retail Misc. 0.440 0.526 0.529 0.600 0.660 0.699 0.726Shopping 1.861 1.199 1.299 1.352 1.410 1.472 1.517

Retail 2.709 2.797 3.001 3.130 3.190 3.210 3.188 (Yr/yr % change) -27.9% 3.2% 7.3% 4.3% 1.9% 0.6% -0.7%

NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 17.859 19.786 20.497 22.509 23.716 24.671 25.398 (Yr/yr % change) -6.8% 10.8% 3.6% 9.8% 5.4% 4.0% 2.9%

Multi-Family 12.145 13.247 12.200 12.662 13.099 13.372 13.607Single-Family 14.126 12.877 13.389 13.577 14.202 15.099 15.877

RESIDENTIAL 26.271 26.124 25.589 26.239 27.301 28.471 29.484 (Yr/yr % change) 9.0% -0.6% -2.1% 2.5% 4.0% 4.3% 3.6%GRAND TOTAL 101.878 87.906 83.099 91.072 98.318 104.731 110.949 (Yr/yr % change) 12.9% -13.7% -5.5% 9.6% 8.0% 6.5% 5.9%






Table 10: Canada Four Largest Provinces: Type-of-Structure Forecasts($ Billions CAD)


Quebec Residential 3.436 3.200 2.926 3.255 3.388 3.498 3.588

Non-res Building 3.605 3.272 3.462 3.878 4.127 4.142 4.228


(Yr vs previous yr % Change) 10.1% 17.0% -3.3% 14.5% 7.2% 3.9% 4.3%Ontario Residential 9.863 11.220 11.182 10.845 11.159 11.453 11.725 Non-res Building 5.361 5.495 8.521 8.963 9.241 9.555 9.732


(Yr vs previous yr % Change) 4.0% 22.4% 7.2% 3.3% 5.2% 4.5% 4.0%Alberta Residential 4.563 3.592 2.772 3.100 3.330 3.608 3.897 Non-res Building 2.774 4.494 2.505 2.969 3.257 3.479 3.684


(Yr vs previous yr % Change) 6.6% -42.6% -32.1% 16.0% 13.7% 11.8% 11.1%British Columbia Residential 5.667 6.224 6.883 6.786 6.955 7.247 7.441

Non-res Building 4.235 4.112 3.674 4.270 4.422 4.705 4.814Engineering/Civil 3.822 12.140 10.303 11.858 13.062 14.167 15.186Total 13.725 22.476 20.859 22.914 24.439 26.118 27.441

(Yr vs previous yr % Change) -12.0% 63.8% -7.2% 9.8% 6.7% 6.9% 5.1%


Table 9: Canadian Provinces, Total Construction Starts − CMDActuals

(Level in $ Millions CAD) Forecasts (Year versus previous year % change)

Regions/Provinces (East to West) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Atlantic region $2,688 34.3% 15.7% 14.9% 9.1% 9.6%Quebec $13,623 -3.3% 14.5% 7.2% 3.9% 4.3%Ontario $28,121 7.2% 3.3% 5.2% 4.5% 4.0%Manitoba $2,093 9.2% 3.9% 4.2% 3.0% 3.4%Saskatchewan $2,807 -25.4% 29.0% 20.0% 12.8% 11.3%Alberta $16,099 -32.1% 16.0% 13.7% 11.8% 11.1%British Colombia $22,476 -7.2% 9.8% 6.7% 6.9% 5.1%Canada $87,906 -5.5% 9.6% 8.0% 6.5% 5.9%








Graph 19: Canadian Total Construction Starts – CMD

Graph 21: Canadian Non-Residential Building Starts – CMD

Graph 20: Canadian Residential Construction Starts – CMD

Graph 22: Canadian Shopping/Retail Construction Starts – CMD

Source of actuals: CMD "Insight" /Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD / Chart: CMD.

Canada Total Construction Starts - CMD

Name of this file: "Forecast Check (OE) Canada Starts $s (Mar 16) - Final.xlsx

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Graph 23: Canadian Private Offices Construction Starts – CMD Graph 24: Canadian Warehouse Construction Starts – CMD


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Graph 26: Canadian Hospital/Clinic Construction Starts – CMD

Graph 28: Canadian Engineering Construction Starts – CMD


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Source of actuals: CMD “Insight” / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD / Chart: CMD.Source of actuals: CMD “Insight” / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD / Chart: CMD.

Graph 30: Canadian Water and Sewage Construction Starts – CMDGraph 29: Canadian Roadwork Construction Starts – CMD



Canada Water and Sewage Construction Starts - CMD

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Canada Roadwork Construction Starts - CMD

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Graph 31: Canadian Power Infrastructure Construction Starts – CMD

Graph 33: Canada Four Largest Provinces (by Population): Total Construction Starts – CMD

Graph 32: Canadian Oil and Gas Plants, Pipelines Construction Starts – CMD

Graph 34: Canada Four Largest Provinces: Total Residential Construction Starts – CMD



Canada Power Infrastructure Construction Starts - CMD

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Canada Four Largest Provinces (by Population): Total Construction Starts - CMD


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Canada All Other Civil Construction Starts - CMD

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Canada Four Largest Provinces: Total Residential Construction Starts - CMD


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Graph 35: Canada Four Largest Provinces: Total Non-residential Building Starts – CMD

Graph 36: Canada Four Largest Provinces: Total Engineering/ Civil Construction Starts – CMD


Canada Four Largest Provinces: Total Non-residential Building Starts - CMD


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QuebecAlberta

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Canada Four Largest Provinces: Total Engineering/Civil Construction Starts - CMD


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Contributors:Oxford Economics – Abby Samp, Senior Economist; Toby Whittington, Economist / CMD – Alex Carrick, Chief Economist; Erich Falkenberg, National Production Manager

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