Climate variability, climate change, and agriculture in China
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Jmocave wa|oalomovy- jmocave jhai`e- aif a`|ojumvu|e oi Jhoia Mo _ue Oizvovuve bg Eiwo|biceiv aif Zuzvaoialme Fewembtceiv oi A`|ojumvu|e
Transcript of Climate variability, climate change, and agriculture in China
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Jmocave wa|oalomovy- jmocave jhai`e-aif a`|ojumvu|e oi Jhoia
Mo _ue
Oizvovuve bg Eiwo|biceiv aif
Zuzvaoialme Fewembtceiv oiA`|ojumvu|e
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Oiv|bfujvobi
Octajvz bg exv|ece jmocavoj eweivz bi a`|ojumvu|e
T|bkejvobiz bg guvu|e jmocave jhai`e oi Jhoia
Jmocave jhai`e octajvz bi a`|ojumvu|e
Ney uije|vaoivoez
Buvmoie
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O) Oiv|bfujvobi
@mblam ceai zu|gaje vecte|avu|ez hawe |ozei ly 4)06 ± 4)18ℊ
bwe| vhe mazv 144 yea|z- t|bkejvobiz bg `mblam pa|coi` ly <144
|ai`e g|bc 1)1ℊ vb 7)6ℊ（OTJJ- <440/
Oi Jhoia (ELIJJA- <440/ ;
Aiiuam awe|a`e ao| vecte|avu|e haz |ozei ly 4)54)8Jfu|oi` mazv 144 yea|z
Ai bwe|amm fej|eaze oi aiiuam t|ejotovavobi bjju||ef-awe|a`oi` <)? cc"fejafe zoije vhe 1?54z
Vhe|e hawe leei jhai`ez oi vhe g|equeijy aif oiveizovy bgexv|ece jmocavoj eweivz oi Jhoia fu|oi` vhe mazv 54 yea|z)
Zea mewem haz |ozei zo`iogojaivmy oi <4vh jeivu|y av vhe |ave bg<)5cc"yea| (ZBA- <440/
`majoe|z oi Jhoia hawe |ev|eavef gb| vhe tazv 144 yea|z povh a|ejeiv ajjeme|avobi oi vhe |ave
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O) Oiv|bfujvobi
Pa|coi` v|eifz oi´J te| fejafe g|bc 1?51 vb <44<
Zbu|je; ELIJJA- <440
V|eifz oi exv|ece heawy |aoi fayz fu|oi` 1?51#1???
Zbu|je; ELIJJA- <440
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O) Oiv|bfujvobi
Jhoia oz povh ho`h extbzu|e aif zeizovowovy vb exv|ece
jmocavoj eweivz
mbp vecte|avu|ez aif heawy zibpgammz oi zbuvhe|i Jhoia-
<448
cbzv ze|obuz f|bu`hv oi gowe t|bwoijez bg zbuvhpezv Jhoia-
<414
Vhe octajvz bg <448‟z aif <414‟z exv|ece eweivz-
ho`hmo`hvef octb|vaiv peaniezzez oi vhe |eztbize vb
exv|ece jmocave eweivz aif mef tbmojy cane|z vb zteef
ut vhe t|bjezz bg gb|cumavoi` jbivoi`eijy |eztbize
ceazu|ez gb| zewe|e ceveb|bmb`ojam fozazve|z
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O) Oiv|bfujvobi
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OO) Vhe octajvz bg exv|ece jmocavojeweivz bi a`|ojumvu|e
Ceveb|bmb`ojam ha{a|fz a|e |eztbizolme gb| bwe| 04% bg
vhe mbzzez jauzef ly iavu|am ha{a|fz aiiuammy
F|bu`hvz- gmbbfz- mbp vecte|avu|e zv|ezz- aif haom
jbizvovuve vhe cakb| ceveb|bmb`ojam ha{a|fz vhav aggejvJhoia‟z a`|ojumvu|e
Awe|a`e `|aoi mbzz g|bc ceveb|bmb`ojam ha{a|fz |eajhef
54)? commobi vbiz"y|
Vhe aiiuam fo|ejv ejbibcoj eggejvz bg j|bt mbzz fue vb
ceveb|bmb`ojam ha{a|fz acbuivz oz ut vb 1%#:% bg @FT
fu|oi` mazv vei yea|z
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OO) Vhe octajvz bg exv|ece jmocavojeweivz bi a`|ojumvu|e
F|bu`hvz `eie|ave cbzv faca`e vb a`|ojumvu|am t|bfujvobi-
acbuivoi` bwe| hamg bg vhe `|aoi mbzzez jauzef ly
ceveb|bmb`ojam ha{a|fz) Vhe a|ea aggejvef ly f|bu`hvz |eajhef
1:)? commobi ha"y| (1?08#<446/) Zoije vhe 1??4z- mbzzez jauzef
ly f|bu`hvz hawe |ozei vb <8)< commobi vbiz- povh ejbibcoj
mbzzez bg :6)5 commobi _uai \CL (Mou- <445 /
J|btmaif a|ea faca`ef ly f|bu`hv oi Jhoia Ejbibcoj mbzzez g|bc |efujef |aoi t|bfujvobi
fue vb f|bu`hv fu|oi` vhe te|obf 1?87 vb <441
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OO) Vhe octajvz bg exv|ece jmocavojeweivz bi a`|ojumvu|e
F|bu`hv amzb `eie|avez hucai aif aiocam zugge|oi`-
ta|vojuma|my ly |efujoi` vhe awaomalomovy bg f|oinoi` pave|
(Pai`- <447/
Oi a ib|cam yea|- vhe vbvam pave| zhb|va`e iavobipofe oziea|my 64 LJC aif- oi vhe ib|vhe|i Jhoia vhe zovuavobi oz
pb|ze
Zoije <444- :<4 commobi tebtme fof ibv hawe ajjezz vb
f|oinalme pave| vh|bu`hbuv |u|am a|eaz aif 644 jovoezzugge|ef g|bc pave| zhb|va`e buv bg a vbvam bg 77? jovoez oi
Jhoia
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OO) Vhe octajvz bg exv|ece jmocavojeweivz bi a`|ojumvu|e
Ga|ce|z‟ iev oijbcez a|e octajvef ly f|bu`hv povh
te| jatova ejbibcoj mbzzez bg :0 _uai \CL- ai
awe|a`e bg 6)1% bg ga|ce|z‟ oijbce g|bc a`|ojumvu|am
zbu|jez levpeei 1?85 aif <441 (F\Z- <445/
Oi vhe tbwe|vy#zv|ojnei a|eaz bg Ib|vhpezv Jhoia-
f|bu`hv jai tuzh ga|ce|z lajn oivb tbwe|vy (Mou-
<445/
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OO) Vhe octajvz bg exv|ece jmocavojeweivz bi a`|ojumvu|e
Gmbbfz a|e vhe zejbif cbzv faca`oi` ceveb|bmb`ojam ha{a|f
gb| a`|ojumvu|e- ta|vojuma|my oi vhe mbpe| aif coffme |eajhez bg
vhe _ai`v{e- _emmbp aif Haohe \owe| Tmaoiz)
Vhe ejbibcoj mbzz jauzef ly gmbbfz ajjbuivef gb| <6% bg
faca`ez jauzef ly ceveb|bmb`ojam ha{a|fz)
Fo|ejv ejbibcoj mbzzez zveafomy oij|eazef fu|oi` vhe 1??4z-
<)<6% bg @FT oi vhe jb||eztbifoi` te|obf
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OO) Vhe octajvz bg exv|ece jmocavojeweivz bi a`|ojumvu|e
J|bt faca`e g|bc zt|oi` g|bzv haz oij|eazef fue vb comf
poive|z vhav meaf vb ea|moe| bizev bg luffoi` aif gmbpe|oi` oi
poive| pheav- v|eez aif g|uov- canoi` vhec cb|e wumie|alme vb
jbmf
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OO) Vhe octajvz bg exv|ece jmocavojeweivz bi a`|ojumvu|e
Zbce aztejvz bg |ejeiv wa|oalomovy hawe leei leiegojoam)
Pa|coi` fu|oi` vhe tazv vh|ee fejafez haz jbiv|oluvef vb vhe
extaizobi bg poive| pheav tmaivoi` oi ib|vheazv Jhoia
Oi vhe zbuvhe|i ta|v bg Ib|vheazv Jhoia- fbulme j|bttoi` zyzvecz
hawe |etmajef zoi`me j|bttoi` zyzvecz meafoi` vb ho`he| bwe|amm
j|bt yoemfz
Iep wa|oevoez hawe leei afbtvef aif vhe vocoi` bg j|bt cavu|ovy
jhai`ef g|bc ea|my vb cof aif mave cavu|ovy
Pa|coi` aif exveifef mei`vh bg `|bpoi` zeazbi haz haf a cakb|
octajv bi vhe tmaivavobi zyzvecz oi vhe jbuiv|y) Ambi` povh
afwaijez oi vejhibmb`y- Jhoia‟z Cumvotme J|bttoi` Oifex haz
oij|eazef ly ?)5 %
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OOO) T|bkejvobiz bg guvu|e jmocave jhai`eoi Jhoia
Aiiuam jhai`ez oi vecte|avu|e aif |aoigamm ly vhe <4<4z- <454z- aif
<484z povh 10 @JCz g|bc OTJJ A\6 aif T\EJOZ (A< zjeia|ob/ awe|a`e
gb| amm Jhoia)
#14
#5
4
5
14
15
<4
4)4 4)5 1)4 1)5 <)4 <)5 :)4 :)5 6)4 6)5 5)4 5)5
Vecte|avu|e jhai`e (fe`|ee J/
T | e j o t o v a v o b i
j h a i ` e ( % /
<4<4z
<454z
<484z
T\EJOZ <4<4z
T\EJOZ <454z
T\EJOZ <484z
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OOO) T|bkejvobiz bg guvu|e jmocave jhai`e
oi Jhoia
Jbcta|oi` povh lazemoie (1?71#1??4/
Vecte|avu|e (ℊ/ T|ejotovavobi
<4<4 1)1ｙ<)1 <%ｙ:%
<454 <):ｙ:): 5%ｙ0%
<144 :)?ｙ7)4 11%ｙ10%
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OW) Jmocave jhai`e octajvz bia`|ojumvu|e
\ezea|jh bi jmocave jhai`e octajvz haz a mbi`
hozvb|y oi Jhoia
”Octajvz bg jmocave jhai`e bi Jhoia‟z a`|ojumvu|e- gb|ezv|y-
pave| |ezbu|jez- aif zea mewem |ozoi`- aif azzbjoavef|eztbize zv|ave`oez–- zuttb|vef ly CbZV fu|oi` vhe 8vh
aif ?vh gowe#yea| tmaiioi` te|obfz
”Zvufy bg vhe octajvz bg jmocave jhai`e bi Jhoia‟z
a`|ojumvu|e– zuttb|vef ly Feg|a- UN (<44:#<448/
”\ezea|jh aif fecbizv|avobi bg afatvavobi vejhibmb`oez
aif ceazu|ez– zuttb|vef ly CbZV g|bc <447 vb <414
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Cevhbfz aif cbfemz attmoef
Ea|my octajv azzezzceivz pe|e cbzvmy quamovavowe
zvufoez bi zeizovowovy uife| vhe oij|eceivam
zjeia|obz
Cbzv bg vhe |ejeiv zvufoez a|e attmyoi` cejhaiozc
cbfemz moinef povh vhe buvtuvz bg @JCz uife|
v|aizoeiv @H@ ecozzobi zjeia|obz
\e`obiam jmocave cbfem (\JC/ povh faomy voce mei`vh
Vhe azzezzceiv cbfemz attmoef; j|bt cbfemz
(JE\EZ/- `|azz t|bfujvowovy cbfem (ZTU\</>
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Vhe jhai`ez bg j|bt yoemf aif
t|bfujvobi jauzef ly jmocave jhai`ePovhbuv JB< ge|vomo{avobi
#64
#:4
#<4
#14
4
14
4)4 4)5 1)4 1)5 <)4 <)5 :)4 :)5 6)4 6)5
►V
_ o e
m f
j
h a i ` e z
j b c t
a | e
f
p o v h
l a z e
m o i e
( % /
\oje#|aoigef \oje#o||o`avef
Pheav#|aoigef Pheav#o||o avef
Cao{e#|aoigef Cao{e#o||o avef
Povh JB< ge|vomo{avobi
#:4
#<4
#14
4
14
<4
:4
64
54
4 1 < : 6 5
►V
_ o e
m f
j
h a i ` e z
j b c t
a | e
f
p o v h
l a z e
m o i e
( % /
\oje#|aoigef \oje#o||o avef
Pheav#|aoigef Pheav#o||o avef
Cao{e#|aoigef Cao{e#o||o avef
Vhe jhai`ez bg j|bt oemf aif
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Vhe jhai`ez bg j|bt yoemf aift|bfujvobi jauzef ly jmocave
jhai`e
Zbce octb|vaiv tboivz ece|`e g|bc vheze zvufoez (Moi <445/;
JB< ge|vomo{avobi eggejv oz j|ovojam vb vhe buvjbce)
Og JB< ge|vomo{avobi eggejv paz ibv jbizofe|ef oi vhe
zocumavobi- pheav- |oje- aif cao{e yoemfz povh aif povhbuv
o||o`avobi pbumf fej|eaze uife| A< aif L< jmocave
zjeia|obz oi <4<4z- <454z aif <484z)
Og JB< ge|vomo{avobi eggejv paz jbizofe|ef oi vhe zocumavobi-
|oje yoemfz uife| A< zjeia|obz- pheav yoemfz uife| A< aif
L<- |aoigef cao{e yoemfz pbumf oij|eaze oi <4<4z- <454z aif
<484z)
Vhe jhai`ez bg j|bt yoemf aif
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Vhe jhai`ez bg j|bt yoemf aift|bfujvobi jauzef ly jmocave
jhai`e
Zbce octb|vaiv tboivz ece|`e g|bc vheze zvufoez
az gbmmbpz;
Pheav oz vhe cbzv zeizovowe vb JB< ge|vomo{avobi eggejv- phomeo||o`avef cao{e aif |oje a|e mezz zeizovowe vb JB<
ge|vomo{avobi eggejv)
O||o`avef cao{e aif pheav a|e vhe meazv zeizovowe vb
vecte|avu|e |oze- phome |aoigef cao{e aif |oje a|e vhe cbzvzeizovowe vb vecte|avu|e |oze
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@|aoi quamovy
Jmocave jhai`e pomm aggejv vhe quamovy bg `|aoi
Emewavef JB< mewemz cay jauze a fej|eaze oi vhe quamovy bg
pheav fue vb fej|eazoi` bg t|bveoi jbiveiv
Av a fbulmef JB< jbijeiv|avobi- vhe jbiveivz bg myzoie aift|bveoi oi zbyleai- poive| pheav- aif cao{e fej|eaze
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Octajvz bg- aif wumie|alomovy vbjmocave jhai`e oi a`|ojumvu|e
@|bpoi` zeazbi
Jmocave jhai`e pomm aggejv vhe mei`vh bg `|bpoi` zeazbi)
Phei aiiuam awe|a`e vecte|avu|e oij|eaze 1´Jℊ-
ajjucumavef vecte|avu|e (4ℊ
/ co`hv |oze att|bxocavemy1:4ℊ oi Ib|vheazv Jhoia
<54ℊ°fay oi Ib|vh Jhoia
:54#654ℊ°fay oi _ai`v{e \owe| lazoi aif Zbuvh Jhoia
:44#:54ℊ°fay _uiiai aif @uo{hbu
<54#:44ℊ°fay oi vhe Ib|vhpezv a|of aif zecoa|of |e`obiz
1?4ℊ°fay oi vhe Qoi`hao aif Volevai tmaveauz
Vhe mei`vh bg g|bzv g|ee te|obf pbumf oij|eaze ly 15#<5 fayz)
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Octajvz bg- aif wumie|alomovy vbjmocave jhai`e oi a`|ojumvu|e
J|bttoi` zyzvec
Uife| vhe <ÐJB< zjeia|ob- vhe zoi`me j|bttoi` a|ea pbumf |efuje
ly <:)1%) Vhe v|otme j|bttoi` a|ea pbumf oij|eaze g|bc ju||eiv
zha|e bg 1:)5% vb a zha|e bg :7%
Ly <454 ma|`e jhai`ez oi j|bttoi` zyzvecz pbumf bjju| amcbzvewe|yphe|e oi Jhoia) Cujh bg vhe ju||eiv fbulme j|bttoi` zyzvec
pbumf le |etmajef ly fogge|eiv jbcloiavobi bg v|otme j|bttoi`
zyzvecz)
Vhe ib|vh lbuifa|y bg fbulme j|bttoi` zyzvecz pbumf cbwe vb vhe
jeiv|e ta|v bg ju||eiv zoi`me j|bttoi` zyzvecz
Jmocave pa|coi` zhbumf meaf vb oij|eazoi` j|bttoi` fowe|zogojavobi
Vhe octajv bi j|bttoi` zyzvec pomm feteif bi vhe jhai`ez bg pave|
|ezbu|jez
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Ney uije|vaoivoez
Ju||eivmy uzef jmocave cbfemz aif guvu|e @H@ ecozzobi
zjeia|obz
Azzezzceiv cbfemz aif ta|aceve|z
Oizuggojoeiv uife|zvaifoi` bg JB< ge|vomo{avobi eggejv
Cbzv bg vhe zvufoez bimy jbizofe| jmocave jhai`e aif JB<
ge|vomo{avobi- bvhe| gajvb|z- zujh az tezv- fozeaze aif peef-
afatvavobi ceazu|ez aif vejhibmb`y oct|bweceiv pe|e ibv
jbizofe|ef oi vhe zocumavobiz Cbzv zvufoez bimy jbizofe|ef vhe awe|a`e jmocave jhai`e
|avhe| vhai exv|ece jmocave eweivz
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Tmaiioi`
Jbcta|ozbi |ezea|jh bg
jmocave jhai`e octajvz bi
j|btz aif mowezvbjn uzoi`cumvo#jmocave cbfemz- cumvo
j|bt cbfemz
eggejv bg JB< ge|vomo{avobi oi
caoi a`|ojumvu|am |e`obiz
vh|bu`h GAJE exte|oceiv
@bam
Zuttb|v tbmojy ‚canoi`
oi a`|ojumvu|am zejvb|
Oct|bwe j|bt cbfemz
Guvu|e |ezea|jh
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Tmaiioi`
T|bkejvobi bg vhe v|eif bg
exv|ece jmocavoj eweiv uzoi`
\JC> Azzezzceiv bg exv|ece
jmocavoj eweiv octajvz bi
a`|ojumvu|am t|bfujvobi
@bam
Oct|bwe vhe
uife|zvaifoi` bg exv|ece
jmocavoj eweiv octajvz
Guvu|e |ezea|jh
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讹惺
Fewembtceiv bg oive`|avef
azzezzceiv cbfem (V- T-
j|bttoi` zyzvec- a`|ojumvu|am
pave| |ezbu|jez- zbom ge|vomovy-
geeflajn acbi` zyzvecz- a`|o)
Tbmojy- vejhibmb`y
oct|bweceiv- mowezvbjn/ Zemejvobi bg afatvavobi
ceazu|ez aif fecbizv|avobi
盩栀
Oct|bwe vhe azzezzceiv
bg jmocave jhai`e bi gbbf
zeju|ovy
Zuttb|v tbmojy canoi`
Guvu|e |ezea|jh
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Vhain ybu gb| ybu| avveivobi
