Climate variability and climate change in pastoral systems
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Climate Variability and Climate Change in Pastoral Systems P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, M. Said, A. Notenbaert, M. Herrero, A. Ayantunde Climate Variability, Pastoralism and Commodity Chains in Ethiopia and Kenya’ (CHAINS) Project: Research Planning Meeting ILRI, Addis Ababa, 21-22 June 2011
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Presented by P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, M. Said, A. Notenbaert, M. Herrero and A. Ayantunde at the Climate Variability, Pastoralism and Commodity Chains in Ethiopia and Kenya’ (CHAINS) Project Research Planning Meeting, Livestock-Climate Change Collaborative Research Support Program (LCC CRSP), ILRI, Addis Ababa, 21-22 June 2011.
Transcript of Climate variability and climate change in pastoral systems
Climate Variability and Climate Change in Pastoral Systems
P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, M. Said, A. Notenbaert, M. Herrero, A. Ayantunde
Climate Variability, Pastoralism and Commodity Chains in Ethiopia and Kenya’ (CHAINS) Project: Research Planning Meeting
ILRI, Addis Ababa, 21-22 June 2011
Pastoralists and climate risk
Oromiya Region, Ethiopia by Andrew Heavens
Feinstein Centre, Tufts Univ.
Feinstein Centre, Tufts Univ
Rainfall and NDVI
1980 1990 2000 20100.1
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0.5
0.7
Year
ND
VI
Figure 1: Variation of monthly (blue) and 12 month running average (red) of NDVI for Kajiado district from 1982 to end of 2009. Source: unpublished ILRI analysis.
Vegetation biomass and livestock mortality
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0.5
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Jan-82
Jan-84
Jan-86
Jan-88
Jan-90
Jan-92
Jan-94
Jan-96
Jan-98
Jan-00
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Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
ND
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TLU
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Biomass and NDVI, Kajiado, Kenya
Biomass and NDVI, Laikipia, Kenya
Forage available (kg/ha) for Kenya northern arid lands (2006-2010). Source of information: GL CRSP LEWS
Biomass (kg/ha)<800800 - 10001000 - 12001200 - 14001400 - 16001600 - 18001800 - 2000>2000
300 0 300 600 Kilometers
N
2006 2007 2008
20102009
Forage deviation (%) for Kenya northern arid lands (2006-2010). Source of information: GL
CRSP LEWS
Forage deviationVery Good Deviation > 30Good 30 >= Deviation >10Normal 10 >= Devition > -10Poor -10 >= Deviation > - 30Scarce -30 >= Deviation > -50Drought -50 >= Deviation > -70Disasater -70 >= Deviation
300 0 300 600 Kilometers
N
2006 2007 2008
20102009
Climate Change
Image of the Future
Image of the Future
Climate change exposure: changes in rain per rainfall event
Ericksen et al, 2011
Unpublished IRLI analysis
Doherty et al 2009
East Africa:Simulated plant funtional types:
(top) 20th century
(bottom) 20th and 21st centuries (one climate model)
Adaptation research priorities• Context of rapidly changing production systems
and livelihood strategies• Will CC mean more or less livestock production
in marginal areas (CC to Livestock keepers)?• What do the exposure thresholds mean for dryland areas?
• Constraints on social/ econ/ institutional issues of adaptive capacity
• Safety nets• Markets • Land tenure
• SCENARIOS as a planning tool
Photo: P. Little 2011
Thank you…
