1

Climate Trends in Israel and

Effects on Water Resources

Amir Givati, Israeli Hydrological Service,

Israeli Water Authority

2

�� Climate and hydrological observations in Israel.Climate and hydrological observations in Israel.

�� Projected changed and the effect on water Projected changed and the effect on water

resources.resources.

�� Cooperation between the Water Authority andCooperation between the Water Authority and

governmental offices and Academic institutions:governmental offices and Academic institutions:

Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Ministry of Environment, Ministry of

Agriculture, Tel Aviv University, Hebrew Agriculture, Tel Aviv University, Hebrew

University. University.

3

Tools that are being use Tools that are being use

in the Water Authorityin the Water Authority

�� Seasonal precipitation models Seasonal precipitation models -- NCEP / NCARNCEP / NCAR

�� Climate models Climate models -- Tel Aviv University (Prof. P. Tel Aviv University (Prof. P. Alpert).Alpert).

�� Stream flow Stream flow -- IHS, The Lake Kinneret IHS, The Lake Kinneret LimnologicalLimnological Laboratory (Dr. Alon Laboratory (Dr. Alon RimmerRimmer))

�� Aquifers recharge: HUJI (Prof. H. Gvirtzman)Aquifers recharge: HUJI (Prof. H. Gvirtzman)

�� Evaporation / Lake Kinnert salinity Evaporation / Lake Kinnert salinity -- The Lake The Lake Kinneret Kinneret LimnologicalLimnological Laboratory (Dr. Alon Laboratory (Dr. Alon RimmerRimmer))

4

•• What do we know until now ?What do we know until now ?

•• What are the forecasts that we What are the forecasts that we

have for the coming decades ?have for the coming decades ?

5

Increase in summer , no trend at winter

Temperatures:

There is a wide agreement that temperatures increased in Israel

during the last decades, especially in the summer

1 degree increase in the summer Stability in the winter

Ziv et al., J. Roy. Met. Soc. 2010

6

The temperatures in Israel with respect to the Global temperatures

Temperatures

Summer Winter

Ziv et al., J. Roy. Met. Soc. 2010

7

Precipitation:

No clear trend was found. Several studies showed different trends for different

places (coast, inland, north vs. south, the hilly areas vs. the plain).

Time series for 13 rain gauges with long

record of measurement since 1920

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

y = -213.14 + 0.36384x R= 0.073716

mm/y

Years

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Jerusalem

y = 514.97 + 0.0062349x R= 0.001mm/y

Years

8

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1927 1937 1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007

Kinnert

Western GalileeMountain

Coast

y = 567.26 - 0.37176x R= 0.06

y = 578.57 + 0.13377x R= 0.02

y = 538.39 + 0.623x R= 0.09

y = 544.11 - 0.19604x R= 0.03

mm/y

years

Precipitation trends in the major Aquifers in Israel:

Kinnert, Western Galilee, Mountain, Coastal Aquifer

• Slight decrease in

the Kinnert basin

• Stable trend in the Galilee,

Mountain and coast

9

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Cluster of rain gauge in the northern Golan

Ending / Starting = 755 / 869 = 0.87

y = 8340.4 - 3.783x R= 0.15

Golan cluster [m

m/year]

B

Year

Decreasing trend at hilly rain gauges, Northern IsraelDecreasing trend at hilly rain gauges, Northern Israel

10

: 0.04P value− ↓: 0.025P value− ↓

:0.04P - value ↓

Statistically significant decrease in annual precipitation in the Kinnert basin

Rom and Givati, 2009

11

Givati and Rosenfeld, WRR, 2007

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Ratio between annual flow in Dan spring to

precipitation in Jordan valley cluster

1951-2005: Ending / Starting = 0.94 / 1.05 = 0.90

1975-2005: Ending / Starting = 0.91 / 1.05 = 0.86

y = 4.234 - 0.0016x R= 0.30 P = 0.02y = 10.212 - 0.0046x R= 0.48 P=0.004

Observed / predicted outflow ratio

year

B

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.1

0.11

0.12

0.13

0.14

0.15

1980 1987 1995 2003

y = 1.478 - 0.0007x R= 0.46 P = 0.02

Ro [106m

3/mm]

Year

B

Ratio between outflow of Banias

spring to rainfall in Jordan cluster

Ending / Starting Ro = 0.10 / 0.12 = 0.83

Precipitation and spring flow in the upper Jordan River basinPrecipitation and spring flow in the upper Jordan River basin

Decreasing trend in the major water resources of Israel:Decreasing trend in the major water resources of Israel:

12

Decreasing trend in available water volume into the

Lake of Galilee

y = - 5.8102x + 502.51

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1980

/81

1981

/82

1982

/83

1983

/84

1984

/85

1985

/86

1986

/87

1987

/88

1988

/89

1989

/90

1990

/91

1991

/92

1992

/93

1993

/94

1994

/95

1995

/96

1996

/97

1997

/98

1998

/99

1999

/00

2000

/01

2001

/02

2002

/03

2003

/04

2004

/05

2005

/06

2006

/07

2007

/08

2008

/09

2009

/201

0Annual volumes [MCM]

486 - 282 = 215 MCM

Givati and Rosenfeld, WRR, 2007

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Available water volume in lake Kinneret

Ending - Starting = 349 - 492 = -143

y = 9588.2 - 4.6057x

Available Water [106m

3 year-1]

A

13

Using the SPI Drought Index in order toUsing the SPI Drought Index in order to

calculate drought duration and intensity calculate drought duration and intensity

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jerusalem, Time Scale: 1 Years

S P

I

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 20000

500

1000

1500Jerusalem

mm

/year

Rom and Givati, 2009

14

Future ProjectionsFuture Projections

�� Precipitation Precipitation

�� Drought indexDrought index

�� Incoming water to Lake Kinnert Incoming water to Lake Kinnert

�� Evaporation Evaporation

�� Recharge in Aquifers Recharge in Aquifers

15

Effect of possible climate change scenarios in Israel on droughts

Rom and Givati, 2009

16

Trends of mean seasonal precipitation in (%)

Climate Modeling in Israel

Alpert P., S.O. Krichak, 2009

17

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Observed precipitation

Modeled precipitation

Annual precipitation [m

m / y]

Years

A

200

220

240

260

280

300

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Modeled evaporation

Observed evaporation

Annual Evaporation [m

cm]

Years

B

Calculated precipitation (A) and (B) evaporation for the period 2015-2034 based on

statistical downscaling (TAU) form Kitoh et. al ,2008 climate model

Givati et al., 2010. Water Resources Research (in review)

Modeling future available water in Lake Kinnert

1818%43277*234233

Average Cl

Concentration

in the lake (mg/l]

-8%-22250272273

Std

Available water

[mcm]

-14%-56345401408

Average Available

water

[mcm]

5%11249238230

Average

Evaporation

[mcm]

-4%-10246256273

Std

Incoming water

[mcm]

-7%-44620664663Average Incoming

water [mcm]

-13%-35228263271Std Precipitation

[mm]

-4%-30802832835

Average

Precipitation

[mm]

Future Change

[%]

Future

Change

2015 –

2034

Modeled

1979 – 2007

Modeled

1979 – 2007

ObservedPeriod

Summary of the climate, Hydrological, evaporation and salinity

concentration models and the effect on water availability in Lake Kinnert