Climate Science Debate is Settled: Climate Carbon Tax is the Vital Solution

Climate ScienceCrash CourseDana Nuccitelli

dana1981@yahoo.com

@dana1981

Who Am I?B.A. in Astrophysics from UC Berkeley, 2003M.S. in Physics from UC Davis, 2005Environmental Scientist and Risk Assessor working at McClellan Business Park since 2006Climate blogger at SkepticalScience.com (since 2010) and The Guardian (since April 2013)Author of four peer-reviewed climate science papersCitizens Climate Lobby Sacramento Chapter member

More details later2SkepticalScience.com

In 2010 I joined Skeptical Science, which is a website that debunks climate myths. It was started by an Australian, John Cook, whose father was a climate skeptic. His father would tell him about a climate myth like the sun is causing global warming, and John wanted to know what the peer-reviewed scientific research said about it. He couldnt find a good website summarizing what the climate science literature has to say about common climate myths, so he did the research and created a website himself.3Skeptical Science Myth Rebuttal Levels

He turned Skeptical Science into a great resource, but one day somebody suggested that he should create basic, intermediate, and advanced level rebuttals to each myth. That was too much work for any one person, so John asked for help, and created an international team of volunteers. I joined in 2010 and have since become the biggest contributor to Skeptical Science. Currently has nearly 200 myth rebuttals, anything you can think of.4Skeptical Science Smartphone App

If you go to skepticalscience.com and scroll to the bottom right corner, youll see a link to get our app for smartphones. 5Skeptical Science Smartphone App

Very handy if youre stuck talking to your climate skeptic cousin on Thanksgiving, who insists that global warming is caused by galactic cosmic rays. Just whip out your phone, open the SkS app, and let him read the rebuttal to the myth, based on peer-reviewed science.

6The GuardianClimate Consensus the 97%

In April the Guardian hired me as part of their new Environment blogs network. My blog is called Climate Consensus the 97%. I talk about climate science and policy and energy, keep it in simple, easy to understand terms.7The Big Question:How do we know humans are causing global warming?The Earths climate changed naturally in the pastand people died naturally in the pastMyth #1

CSI: Climate Change

Fingerprints of human-caused global warming

The increased greenhouse effectEnergy comes from the sun, much as visible light. Greenhouse gases absorb infrared light, so most of that passes through the atmosphere to the Earths surface. The Earth absorbs that sunlight and converts it to infrared light, or heat. That infrared light is sent up into the atmosphere, where greenhouse gases absorb it. Greenhouse gases re-emit the heat in all directions, some going back to the Earths surface, causing it to warm. More GHGs = more warming.12Global energy imbalance seen by satellites

In a stable climate, there would be equal energy entering and leaving the Earths atmosphere. Instead, satellites have observed more heat entering than leaving the Earths atmosphere. Thats whats causing global warming.13Incoming energy from the sun has been stable for 50 years

0.05%Myth #2Increased greenhouse effect has trapped heat = less outgoing energy

Climate research concludes about 100% of global warming over the past 50 years is human-caused

Scientists are as confident in human-caused global warming as they are that smoking kills

Last IPCC report said with 95% confidence that humans have caused at least 50% of the global warming over the past 50 years, probably 100%.1797% Expert Consensus on Human-Caused Global Warming

Last year, a group of volunteers from Skeptical Science published a study surveying the consensus on human-caused global warming in the peer-reviewed climate science literature. We reviewed 12,000 abstracts and asked the scientist authors to rate their own papers. Of the papers taking a position, 97% agreed that humans are causing global warming in both our abstract ratings and the scientist self-ratings. The consensus has strengthened over time (98% in 2011), but has been very strong since at least 1991.18The Consensus Among 80National Academies of Science

Dozens of scientific organizations endorse the consensus position that "most of the global warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities

The Academies of Science from 80 different countries all endorse the consensus on human-caused global warming. None reject it.19The Consensus Gap

Myth #4Unfortunately surveys show that only about 45% of Americans are aware that theres a scientific consensus on human-caused global warming, despite over 97% agreement amongst climate experts. Research has also shown that people are more likely to support climate action if they are aware of the expert consensus. So spread the word and let everyone know. We created a website called TheConsensusProject.com to help spread the word.2097% Consensus is Big News

We had a big media push to get the word out about our 97% consensus results and help close the consensus gap. This was very successful, even Tweeted by President Obamas Twitter account (run by Organizing for Action) twice. Hopefully made some headway closing the consensus gap.21Is the planet still warming? Yes, and fast!Most popular current myth is that global warming has paused over the past 15 years.This myth is wrong for two simple reasons. First, it ignores that heat continues to build up on Earth, mostly in the oceans.Myth #590% of Global Warming Heats the Oceans

This graphic is based on data from the 2007 IPCC report (you can find it on Skeptical Science). About 90% of global warming is absorbed by the oceans. Were at the surface, in the atmosphere. So if theres a natural cycle when the oceans absorb a little more heat, that leaves less for the atmosphere and makes a big difference.23Global Warming Continues

This graph is from a scientific paper I published in 2012 that accounts for all sources of global heat accumulation oceans, land, ice, and atmosphere. The little bit of data that the skeptics focus on when trying to argue that global warming has paused is just part of the red data. It completely ignores all the blue data from the oceans. As you can see, theres no sign that the overall heating of the planet has slowed over the past 15 years. In fact, it warmed faster than the prior 15 years, and at a rate equivalent to 4 Hiroshima atomic bomb detonations per second.24Going Down The Up Escalator

I created this graph called the Escalator, which shows that there are frequently short-term periods where surface temperatures are flat. This is due to the fact that many different factors influence short-term surface temperatures, including ocean cycles like El Nio and La Nia, solar cycles, volcanic eruptions, etc. But over the long-term, these short-term influences cancel out and reveal the human-caused global warming trend.25Where is the Climate Headed? The Reason for Urgency

Ancient EgyptAncient GreeceRomanEmpireYou Are HereStart of Human CivilizationMyth #3So why does all this matter? This graph shows average global surface temperature back to the last ice age, and where were headed by 2100 if we continue relying on fossil fuels. We dont know exactly how sensitive the climate is to the increasing greenhouse effect, so the 3 dots represent best, most likely, and worst case scenarios. Even in a best case scenario, were headed for a climate thats hotter than at any time during the history of human civilization if we continue with BAU. Its scary!26Northern California Wildfire Increase in High Emissions Scenario.Area burned in 2085 compared to 1975

This slide shows a figure from a 2011 paper looking at wildfire changes under various GHG emissions scenarios. This is the high emissions scenario where we continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels. The orange indicates areas where the area burned by wildfires doubles by 2085 compared to 1975, and the red is a tripling or quadrupling of the area burned.27Current drought caused by Ridiculously Resilient Ridge.Climate change connection?

2004 UC Santa Cruz paper predicted a climate connection

Warmer world may lead to more persistent meanders of the jet stream29

High pressure zone predicted in 2005High pressure zone measured in 2013Polar Vortex caused by meandering Jet Stream

*Meandering jet stream31Over 70% Arctic sea ice volume loss in 3 decades

Climate change contributors to CA droughtLoss of snowpack natures water storage for California. Warmer temperatures lead to:Precipitation falling as rain, not snowMore precipitation falls in downpours, less absorbed in soilFaster snow meltMore evaporation from reservoirs, drier soilChanging precipitation patternsWet areas tend to get wetter, dry tend to get drierHigh pressure ridges off the coast pushing our rain to the northThe Effects of 1 meter Sea Level Rise (very possible by 2100)

Sea level rise is a big problem for CA. This is a map of what the Bay Area and Central Valley will look like if sea level rises by 1 meter, which is a good estimate for the year 2100 if we continue relying on fossil fuels. Theres a lot of flooding in the Central Valley, close to Stockton and up near Sacramento, Napa, and Fairfield.35

Poorer countries have fewer resources to adapt to climate change. Areas near the equator have more stable and consistent weather even a small climate change has a relatively large impact.36Climate change is about risk management

Theres also the risk management perspective. Part of my job involves assessing risk, and right now climate change is a huge risk management failure. Were faced with potentially catastrophic consequences for the global climate, which is a resource we all depend on. From a risk management perspective, even if youre not convinced by the evidence, taking steps to address that huge risk is a risk management no-brainer. Its why we buy health and home and auto insurance, even if we dont know that well need them. For climate change, the insurance policy involves reducing greenhouse gas emissions.38The Carbon Credit Card

An analogy I like to use is that right now were putting our carbon emissions on a credit card. There is an unavoidable cost associated with those emissions via climate change, for example with damages from stronger hurricanes and sea level rise, higher food prices due to crop damage, and so forth. If we allow carbon pollution to be emitted for free, were just putting off those costs to be paid at a later date. The costs of climate damage are higher than the costs of reducing emissions, so were also building up interest costs in the process.39Revenue-Neutral Carbon Tax Advocated by Citizens Climate LobbyWe need to put a price on carbon emissions so consumers can make informed decisions.California cap and trade system is a good start, but we need action on a national and international level.Legislation needs bipartisan support. Many conservatives are beginning to support a revenue-neutral carbon tax.More details from Jerry Hinkle, Northern California Regional Coordinator for Citizens Climate Lobby.When we put a price on carbon in the marketplace, consumers can see the costs associated with greenhouse gas emissions and adjust their consumption in an informed manner without continuing to build up that climate credit card debt. California has a good start on that with our carbon cap and trade system, but we need a price on carbon emissions at a national level. That means it needs bipartisan support, and the best chance looks to be a revenue-neutral carbon tax. Theres a growing number of Republicans coming out in support of a revenue neutral carbon tax.40