Climate Outlook

Climate Outlook

Jayantha Obeysekera (’Obey’), Ph.D.,P.E.,D.WRE

Department Director

Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling

Case Study: Lake Okeechobee• Operation of Lake Okeechobee

requires a balance between multiple objectives.

• Climate outlook has been incorporated into operations. Climate based operations are designed to balance current release decisions with future potential shortages and/or surpluses.

• Position Analysis is a tool for projecting probabilities associated with future lake levels. It is a valuable tool for Lake Okeechobee operations.

Lake Okeechobee Management Objectives

• Protect the integrity of the Dike

• Protect Estuaries

• Meet Agricultural/Urban Water Supply needs

• Maintain a healthy Littoral Zone

• Provide water to Everglades

• Maintain Navigation

Balancing the Objectives

Key Management Objective

Lake Level

High Low

Protect the integrity of the Dike

Protect Estuaries

Meet Water Supply needs

Maintain a healthy Littoral Zone Need lake to be between 12.5' -15.5'

Provide water to Everglades

Maintain Navigation

undesirable desirable

Flood Control

Water Shortage

Lake Okeechobee Management Zones

& MeteorologicalForecast

Seasonal Climate Outlook

TributaryHydrologicConditions Multi-

SeasonalClimateOutlook

No Dischargeto Tidewater

Up to Maximum Pulse Release

to the Estuaries


Up to Maximum Discharge Capacity

To Tidewater

WSE Operational Guidelines Decision TreePart 2: Define Lake Okeechobee Discharges to Tidewater (Estuaries)

Apply TributaryCondition

Criteria Weekly


Criteria Weekly

Apply Meteorological Forecasts on aWeekly Basis; apply Seasonal and Multi-Seasonal Climate Outlooks

on a Monthly Basis


on a Monthly Basis

Check Special LakeCriteria daily as needed

for Zones B & D


for Zones B & D

STARTLake Okeechobee

Water Level

ZONE A

DRY

VERY WET

ZONE B

ZONE C

ZONE D

TributaryHydrologicConditions


Lake Stagewithin 0.5 feet

of Zone C


of Zone C



Multi-SeasonalClimateOutlook

Zone C Steady FlowS-80 Up to 2500cfsS-77 Up to 4500cfs


to the Estuaries

Zone B Steady FlowS-80 Up to 3500cfsS-77 Up to 6500cfs

Up to 30 dayMeteorological

Forecast

LakeLess than 17.5’ & it’s the Dry

Season


Forecast

Up to Zone BS-80 Up to 3500cfsS-77 Up to 6500cfs

Up to Zone CS-80 Up to 2500cfsS-77 Up to 4500cfs


to the Estuaries



Forecast

WET TO VERY WET

NO

RM

AL

EXTREMELY WET TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

OTHERWISE

WET TO VERY WET

NORMAL TO DRY

VERY WET

OTHERWISE

NORMAL TO DRY

WET TO VERY WET

EXTREMELY WETWET TO VERY WET

NORMAL TO DRY

EITHER FORECAST INDICATES WET TO VERY WET

BOTH FORECASTS INDICATE NORMAL TO DRY

NORMAL TO VERY WET

DRY

EXTREMELY WET

NORMAL TO VERY WET

DRY TRUE

FALSE NORMAL TO VERY WET

DRY

WET TO VERY WET

NORMAL TO DRY

WSE Regulation ScheduleOperational Elements

• Lake Okeechobee Water Level

• Tributary Hydrologic Condition

30 Day Net Rainfall

Average Kissimmee River (Tributary watershed) inflow

• Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow Outlook

Seasonal Outlook (6 month)

Multi-seasonal Outlook (7 to 12 months)

Climate Outlook IndicatorsEl Niño/La Nina ( Roller Coaster )

warm

cold

warm

cold

• Decadal to multi-decadal scale fluctuations in the sea surface temperature (only about 1º F) in the North Atlantic Ocean

Cold Phase (~1900-1925, 1970-1994)

Warm Phase (1926-1969, 1995-???)

Climate Outlook Indicators: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)

Summary of What We Know(These are tendencies and not absolutes!)

Rainfall Atlantic HurricanesWet Season Dry Season

El Niño No clear pattern

Wetter Less activity

La Niña No clear pattern

Drier More activity

AMO Warm Phase

Wetter decades; drought still possible

Greater # of major storms

AMO Cold Phase

Drier decades; wet years still possible

Lesser # of major storms

& MeteorologicalForecast

Seasonal Climate Outlook

TributaryHydrologicConditions Multi-




to the Estuaries


Up to Maximum Discharge Capacity

To Tidewater

WSE Operational Guidelines Decision TreePart 2: Define Lake Okeechobee Discharges to Tidewater (Estuaries)


Criteria Weekly


Criteria Weekly


on a Monthly Basis


on a Monthly Basis


for Zones B & D


for Zones B & D

STARTLake Okeechobee

Water Level

ZONE A

DRY

VERY WET

ZONE B

ZONE C

ZONE D




of Zone C


of Zone C



Multi-SeasonalClimateOutlook

Zone C Steady FlowS-80 Up to 2500cfsS-77 Up to 4500cfs


to the Estuaries

Zone B Steady FlowS-80 Up to 3500cfsS-77 Up to 6500cfs


Forecast

LakeLess than 17.5’ & it’s the Dry

Season


Forecast

Up to Zone BS-80 Up to 3500cfsS-77 Up to 6500cfs

Up to Zone CS-80 Up to 2500cfsS-77 Up to 4500cfs


to the Estuaries



Forecast

WET TO VERY WET

NO

RM

AL

EXTREMELY WET TRUE

FALSE

FALSE

TRUE

OTHERWISE

WET TO VERY WET

NORMAL TO DRY

VERY WET

OTHERWISE

NORMAL TO DRY

WET TO VERY WET

EXTREMELY WETWET TO VERY WET

NORMAL TO DRY

EITHER FORECAST INDICATES WET TO VERY WET

BOTH FORECASTS INDICATE NORMAL TO DRY

NORMAL TO VERY WET

DRY

EXTREMELY WET

NORMAL TO VERY WET

DRY TRUE

FALSE NORMAL TO VERY WET

DRY

WET TO VERY WET

NORMAL TO DRY

16.5(Zone C)

DRY DRY

DRY

631

16.75

16.25

Lake Okeechobee November 15, 2007 Position Analysis

Middle 50%

Questions?

Climate Outlook

Documents

Transcript of Climate Outlook