Climate Change Technology Needs Assessment for Thailand Water Resource Management Porranee...
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Transcript of Climate Change Technology Needs Assessment for Thailand Water Resource Management Porranee...
Climate Change Technology Needs Assessment for
Thailand Water Resource Management
Porranee ThanapakpawinSurajate Boonya-Aroonnet
Pintip VajarothaiAungkana Pratumthong
Royol Chitradon
Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute (HAII)Ministry of Science and Technology, Thailand 1
2
• The changing water situation: Impacts from Climate change
• Management challenges
• Framework for technology needs assessment
• Prioritized adaptation technologies
Content
33
1950-1997 average 1,374 mm./year
2001-2010 annual rainfall anomaly (mm)compared to 1950-1997 average
Rainfall has been above average in the past decade
Greater inter-annual variability compared to past
(38.7) (58.5) (36.1) (39.3) (80.9) (19.2) (145.7) (mm/month)
Average 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
mm
Monthly rainfall map: Marchcompared to 1950-1997 average
Greater change of monthly rainfall – timing, location, and intensity (e.g. Season change)
4
(174.1) (196.4) (270.5) (204.2) (209.9) (111.0) (212.0)
Monthly rainfall map: Maycompared to 1950-1997 average
Average 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
mm
(mm/month)
5
(219.2) (244.8) (219.2) (187.6) (197.3) (299.8) (288.8)
Monthly rainfall map: Augustcompared to 1950-1997 average
mmAverage 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (mm/month)
6
(236.0) (248.7) (233.1) (268.5) (227.2) (222.4) (314.9)
Monthly rainfall map: Septembercompared to 1950-1997 average
mm
(mm/month)
Average 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
7
Source: Disaster Prevention and Mitigation
Several areas experience both flood & drought problems
Flood risk (left) and drought risk (right) areas
8
Photo: Channel 3
Photo taken Sep 14, 11: Surajate B.Aroonnet
Photo: thairath.co.th 9
Thailand 2011 FloodPhoto taken Sep 14, 11: Surajate B.Aroonnet
Source: Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA
El Nino and La Nina alternates more frequently.
Expect higher climate variability
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) linked to Climate change
10
ที่��มา: IPCC (2551)
Project increased rainfall
11
Future projection of 2090-2099 annual runoff, relative to 1980-1999
12
Only 6% of rainfall is collected in large reservoirs
High inter-annual reservoir inflow variability (19% nation-wide, 20-30% regionally)
Only 13% of agricultural areas is irrigated
Management challenges: Thailand Water Infrastructure
1313
Goal of Thailand WRM &our technology needs
• Solve both flood & drought problems together
• Build water security for all user sectors- Macro level: Irrigated agriculture, Industry, Urban areas
- Micro level: Rain-fed agriculture
• Targets of technology needs:- Secure capitol water supply through storage &
distribution
- Build management flexibility in all climate & demand scenarios
- Minimize disaster risks & impacts
- Build knowledge/know-how and data
14
Framework for prioritizing “adaptation” technologies
Objectives
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Technology Group
Analyze from output/outcom
e
(High Impact) (Low Impact)
Analyze from SWOT
Criteria
Funding sourceInternal funding
Domestic development
HighImpact
HighSWOT
High/Low
Impact
LowSWOT
Mu
lti
Cri
teri
aP
rio
riti
zed
Tech
no
log
y
The process for technology prioritization
15
Rev
iew
po
ssib
le
tech
no
log
ies
External funding/Technology transfer
16
Technology needs for macro-management
Reservoir 4
Reservoir 6
Reservoir 5
Reservoir 3
Reservoir 2
Pond 1
Reservoir 1
Long-range weather forecast (3-7 months)
Flood sensorweb(Event detection, monitoring, and decision support system )
Networking of water infrastructures & management
Rainfall
Now 2 month 4 month
16
17
Community Water Resource Management (CWRM):
Secure water through integrated supply and demand management
Application of science, technology & innovation Knowledge management Capacity & collaborative network building
18*collected from 15 households in 2009
Success story of CWRM in a village in NE Thailand
Yearly Family Data*
(Thai Baht)
Before 2007 2008(with
CWRM)
2009(with
Integrated Farming)
2010(CWRM + Integrated Farming)
INCOME 103,000 1,544,764 2,227,354 2,474,234 4,079,354
• Rice Field 103,000 417,850 621,060 973,630 844,370
• Farming - 917,271 640,500 437,220 1,257,800
• Integrated farming
- 209,643 965,794 1,063,384 1,977,184
Expenditure 114,000 693,496 1,067,451 890,341 1,479,606
Net Income -11,000 851,268 1,159,903 1,583,893 2,599,747
Accumulating debt decreased from 2.6 million THB to 1.84 million THB in 2009
19
Summary
• Goal of Thailand WRM: Water & agricultural security
• Technology needs: Flexible infrastructures & Better management: planning , operation & disaster management
• Macro-management: - Networking of water infrastructures &
management
- Long-range weather forecast (3-7 months)
- Flood sensorweb
• Micro-management: CWRM as a key risk-based adaptation approach to cope with climate variability & build sustainable agriculture
19
Telemeter data
Remote sensing/
GIS
Oceanic data
Risk assessment
Network & Clustering
Users
Disaster management
Flash flood & landslide warning
Water flow network
Survey/observation
Forecasting/Modeling
Operation
Planning
20
Integration of technology use
Reservoir networking