CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM AND REGION

Prof.Dr. Nguyen Duc Ngu

Center for Hydrometeorology and EnvironmentProf. Dr. Nguyen Trong HieuGEF/SGP Vietnam National Steering Committee

1. OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE’S CHARACTERISTICS IN VIETNAM

2. CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE TRENDS OVER THE PAST 100 YEARS

3. CURRENT STATUS ON GREEN HOUSE GAS (GHGs) EMISSIONS IN VIETNAM

4. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN VIETNAM

5. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM

1. OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE’S CHARACTERISTICS IN VIETNAM

1.1 Monsoon tropical climate in a penisular of a greate European – Asian continent

+ Internal tropic heat radiation+ Monsoon circle in South Eastern Asia+ Diverse patterns of humidity and temperature+ Much of natural disasters: hoarfrost. storms. typhoons. droughts…

1.2 Parameters of some basic factors

+ Total heat radiation: 85-190 kcal/cm2/year

+ Balanced heat radiation: 40- 120kcal/cm2/year

+ Total number of sun shire hours: 1400-3000 hour/year

+ Average temperature: 13-28C (-3.2 – 42.5)

+ Average rainfall: 700- 5000 mm

+ Number of cold front (FRL): 26

+ Number of tropical cyclones: 11(in Southern China Sea). 6.9(Vietnam)

1.3 CLIMATE SEASONS

Climate season: V- X Cold season: XI- IV Rainy season: Hot. humid monsoon (Northern region. Central Highland.

Southern region) : V– X Cold. dry monsoon (Northern Central region. Southern Central

region): IX-XII Storm season: VI- XII Drought season:

+ Northern region. Central Highland. Southern region : XI – IV

+ Northern Central region. Central region: VI- VII

+ Southern Central region : III- VIII

1.4 Region-based climate classification

Figure 1: Climate region in Vietnam

2. CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE TRENDS OVER THE PAST 100 YEARS

Table 2.1: Standard variation and deviation of frequency FRL

Feature I II III IV V VI VII VII IX X XI XII year

Standard variati

on (time)

1.57 1.04 1.04 1.39 1.07 1.36 0.22 0.361.1

01.10 1.68 0.94 4.36

Deviation (%)

39.3 30.2 30.2 53.5 41.1 97.1220.

0180.

091.

745.8 46.7 27.6 16.0

2.2 Table 2.5: Frequency of tropical cyclones. start. mature and end

Season of tropical cyclones

Start Mature End

Feature N. of yearsPercentage

(%)N. of years

Percentage (%)

N. of yearsPercentage

(%)

III 1 2.5 0 0.0 0 0.0

IV 2 5.0 0 0.0 0 0.0

V 3 7.5 0 0.0 0 0.0

VI 18 45.0 1 2.5 0 0.0

VII 10 25.0 3 7.5 0 0.0

VIII 3 7.5 7 17.5 0 0.0

IX 1 2.5 14 35.0 5 12.5

X 2 5.0 12 30.0 7 17.5

XI 0 0.0 3 7.5 19 47.5

XII 0 0.0 0 0.0 8 20.0

I 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0

II 0 0.0 0 0.0 1 2.5

Total 40 100.0 4.0 100.0 40 100.0

2.3 CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE Table 2.6: Standard variation of some features of temperature in some typical locations (0C).

LOcationMonitoring

station

Average temperatureHighest temperature in a

year

Lowest temperature in a yearI IV VII X Year

North West Lai Chau 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.3 1.33 2.45

North East Sa Pa 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.72 1.17

Red river delta Hanoi 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.9 0.5 1.07 1.46

Northern Central region

Vinh 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.82 1.37

Southern Central region

Da Nang 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.93 1.51

Highland Da Lat 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.29 1.72

Mekong River deltaTan Son

Nhat0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.69 1.38

2.4 CHANGES IN RAINFALL PATTERN Table 2.7: frequency of coldest and hottest months

Feature Coldest Hottest

Month XI XII I II III IV V VI VII VIII

Hanoi 24 47 29 40 53 7

Ad Nan 25 68 7 49 36 15

Tan Son Nat 6 45 49 0 3 77 20

2.5 CHANGES IN RAINY SEASON Table 2.8: Standard variation (S; mm) and variation of rainfall (Sr; %) measured in some typical locations

LocationMonitoring

stationFeatures I IV VII X Year

North West Lai ChauS 29.0 55.5 129.3 61.9 286.7

Sr 99 42 28 68 14

North East Sa PaS 46.4 75.2 161.9 113.6 402.8

Sr 69 36 36 54 14

Red River Delta HanoiS 21.6 53.4 101.8 104.8 320.0

Sr 102 55 39 72 19

Northern Central region

VinhS 29.0 37.7 119.2 353.0 514.0

Sr 55 59 102 69 25

Southern Central region

Da NangS 76.6 50.7 83.1 276.6 545.4

Sr 98 143 98 44 26

Highland Da LatS 12.1 89.8 83.2 100.3 237.1

Sr 159 55 36 41 13

Mekong River DeltaTan Son

Nhat

S 19.3 50.7 93.5 91.8 284.9

Sr 140 101 32 34 15

biÕn t r ×nh nhiÒu n¨ mvµ xu t hÕ NhiÖt ®é k h«ng k hÝ

t r ung b×nh n¨ m t r ¹ m hµ né i

y = 0.0056x + 23.388

22.5

23.5

24.5

25.5

26.5

năm

T(0C)

biÕn t r ×nh nhiÒu n¨ m vµ xu t hÕ NhiÖt ®é k h«ng k hÝ

t r ung b×nh n¨ m t r ¹ m ®µ n½ng

y = 0.0038x + 25.565

24.5

25.0

25.5

26.0

26.5

27.0

năm

T(0C)

biÕn t r ×nh nhiÒu n¨ m vµ xu t hÕ NhiÖt ®é kh«ng khÝ t r ung b×nh n¨ m t r ¹ m t ©n s¬n nhÊt

y = 0.0104x + 26.789

25.5

26.0

26.5

27.0

27.5

28.0

28.5

29.0

năm

T(0C)

2.6 TRENDS IN CLIMATE CHANGE

biÕn t r ×nh nhiÒu n¨ mvµ xu t hÕ NhiÖt ®é k h«ng k hÝ

t r ung b×nh t h¸ ng I t r ¹ m hµ né i

y = 0.0022x + 16.52512.5

13.5

14.5

15.5

16.5

17.5

18.5

19.5

20.5

21.5

năm

T(0C)

biÕn t r ×nh nhiÒu n¨ m vµ xu t hÕ NhiÖt ®é k h«ng k hÝ

t r ung b×nh t h¸ ng i t r ¹ m ®µ n½ng

y = 0.0068x + 21.162

18.0

19.0

20.0

21.0

22.0

23.0

24.0

25.0

năm

T(0C)

biÕn t r ×nh nhiÒu n¨ m vµ xu t hÕ NhiÖt ®é kh«ng khÝ t r ung b×nh t h¸ ng i t r ¹ m t ©n s¬n nhÊt

y = 0.0095x + 25.541

23.5

24.5

25.5

26.5

27.5

28.5

năm

T(0C)

biÕn t r ×nh nhiÒu n¨ mvµ xu t hÕ NhiÖt ®é k h«ng k hÝ

t r ung b×nh t h¸ ng VII t r ¹ m hµ né i

y = 0.0091x + 28.62

27.0

28.0

29.0

30.0

31.0

năm

T(0C)

biÕn t r ×nh nhiÒu n¨ m vµ xu t hÕ NhiÖt ®é k h«ng k hÝ

t r ung b×nh t h¸ ng VII t r ¹ m ®µ n½ng

y = 0.0054x + 28.919

27.0

28.0

29.0

30.0

31.0

năm

T(0C)

biÕn t r ×nh nhiÒu n¨ m vµ xu t hÕ NhiÖt ®é kh«ng khÝ t r ung b×nh t h¸ ng Vii t r ¹ m t ©n s¬n nhÊt

y = 0.0136x + 26.675

25.0

26.0

27.0

28.0

29.0

năm

T(0C)

biÕn t r ×nh nhiÒu n¨ m vµ xu thÕ l î ng m a n¨ m

t r ¹ m ®µ n½ng

y = 1.0261x + 1930.7500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

năm

R(mm)

biÕn t r ×nh nhiÒu n¨ m vµ xu thÕ l î ng m a n¨ m t r ¹ m

t©n s¬n nhÊt

y = 2.1373x + 1831.8

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

năm

R(mm)

Variations in years and rainfall pattern in hanoi

y = 0.3391x + 1644.8

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

n?m

R(mm)

Significant signs of Climate Change trends

Less dizzily rain Less mist Increased or decreased rainfall in centers Storms and tropical pressures tend to happen more at the end of

the season Increase in frequency and intensity of droughts

3. GHGs EMISSIONS IN VIETNAM3.1. GHG emission inventory in 1994Table 3.1 GHS emission of power-consuming sectors

Sector CO2 CH4

N2

ONOX CO

NMVOC

SO2

Power generation4115.07

0.109

0.045

11.759

0.8360.24

62.97

9

Industry and construction7671.17

0.433

0.081

22.061

5.1990.93

15.35

9

Transport3634.43

0.465

0.043

35.822

158.724

30.342

1.365

Services/ Commerce1974.69

0.242

0.022

2.421

19.198

1.964

1.118

Domestic use1806.04

118.777

1.545

40.011

1931.933

231.216

286.69

Agro-forestry and fishery887.73

0.098

0.007

14.537

12.355

2.446

0.511

Others1490.87

0.385

0.013

2.155

1.590.22

20.81

2

Total21580.0

120.589

1.756

128.763

2129.836

267.367

298.84

3.2 GHG emission inventory in 1998

Table 3.2 Emission of CH4 from exploitation activities (thousand tones)

Exploitation activities Emission

Underground coal mine 37,362

Surface coal mine 2,387

Oil exploitation 0.748

Gas exploitation 4,565

Gas leakage 1,702

Total 46,764

3.3 Projected emission for 2010 - 2028

Table 3.3 GHG emission from industrial production 1994 (thousand tones).Industrial production CO2 NOX CO SO2 NMVOC

Cement 2,677.24 1,611.18

Lime production 651.99

Natri carbonate production 0.52

Use of Natri carbonate 2.24

Steel production 475.2 0.011 0.012 0.008

Paper production 0.230 0.861 1.076 0.569

Wine and beer 0.136

Food 4.075

Total 3,807.19 0.241 0.861 1,612.266 4.788

4. SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE4.1 Climate Change simulation models in VietnamTable 4.1 Simulation models developed based on GHG emission scenarios

Year

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

Increased temperature 00C

IS 92a 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.0

IS 92b 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.0

IS 92c 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2

IS 92d 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6

IS 92e 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.5

IS 92f 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.4

Sea level rise (cm)

IS 92a 1 7 16 24 36 49

IS 92b 1 7 16 24 36 49

IS 92c 1 7 15 23 31 38

IS 92d 1 7 15 23 31 42

IS 92e 1 7 17 25 38 55

IS 92f 1 7 17 25 38 54

4.2 Predictions on Climate Change scenarios

Significantly increased temperature North West, North East, and Central Highland

Significantly increased rainfall in rainy season in Northern Central and Southern Central regions

Rainfall in dry season:

+ Increased rainfall in Northern Central and Southern Central regions

+ Both increased and decreased rainfall in some other regions

Significant Sea level rise in the second half of 21st century

5. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM

Water resources:

- Average water flow: - (minus)

- Water flow in dry season: - -

- Water flow in flood: + +

- Lack of water due to severe droughts Agriculture

- Boundary of tropical crops and trees shift to further North

- Boundary of sub-tropical crops and trees is shrunk

- Increased inundation and severe droughts

- Decreased cultivable areas

Forestry:- Shrinking mangrove forests- Boundary of forest of diperocarpacea species move further to the North- Drought-tolerant tree species are expanding- Risks of forest fire and attack by insects increased

Fishery- Changes in balneology and aquatic habitats- Fishery resources are fragmented- Increased population of tropical fish species- Increased population of sub- tropical fish species

Impacts on transport and energy Impacts on: Oil exploration facilities in sea Railways in coastal areas Power consumption for domestic use Water flows in rivers and water reservoirs for power generation Impacts on health Negative effects on elder’s health Cardiovascular diseases. tropical diseases…

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