Climate change: impacts, adaptation and mitigation in British woodlands

Dr. Mike Morecroft

Head of Climate Change, Natural England

Natural England

.....to ensure that the natural environment is conserved, enhanced and managed for the benefit of present and future generations...

• Advice to government• Species and habitat protection• Incentives for environmental management• Management of nature reserves• Access to nature

British Woodlands

Woodland fragmentation & microclimate

GB Forest Cover: 13% (England 9%)

Fragmented

Forest cover in Britain

• c. 80% land area before clearance• c. 50% Roman period• 5% by 1900• 13% at present

Ancient Semi-Natural Woodlands

• Management history

• Continuity of forest cover since 1600

• c. 10% of woodland

intensificationfragmentationhabitat loss (and gain)

agriculture

air pollution

Pressures on British forest ecosystems

climate change

development

invasive species

?

timedisease?

Climate Change Impacts

http://www.lwec.org.uk/resources/report-cards/biodiversity

Climate change impacts on woodlands• Large scale relationships to temperature• England: change driven by extreme events• Summer drought more important than

temperature?• Drought sensitive trees: beech, birch,

sycamore• Ground flora resistant to change• Invertebrates (incl. pests) responsive to

change• Complex interactions

Seasonal timing (phenology) is changing

Spring is coming earlier• Mean change 11.7 days (1976 – 2005)• 725 taxa across different groups• 83.8% of trends were advance

Thackeray et al. (2010)

Hickling et al. 2006

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

Shift north-wardskm

Distributions are changingUK Animal Groups

Indirect effects of climate change

• Changing forest management• Changes in agriculture• Changing catchment management• Carbon management• Renewable energy

Climate Change mitigation

Forests and climate change mitigation• UK woodland stores: c.790 MtC (640 MtC

soils and litter)• Sequestration: c.15 MtCO2 in 2007 (c. 3%

UK emissions)• Afforestation potential: 10% emissions by

2050 (16% forest cover)• Renewable fuel and materials

Read et al. (2009). Combating climate change – a role for UK forests. The Stationery Office, Edinburgh

Semi-natural WoodlandsClimate change mitigation

• Increase woodland area• Bring more areas into active management• Dilemmas for conservation:• Which species? (Eucalyptus?)• Intensity of management• Potential for ‘win-win’

Climate Change Adaptation

Adaptation for conservation

Adaptation

build resilience

accommodate change

Resilience

• Reducing other threats• Larger areas of habitat / larger populations• Maximise heterogeneity in microclimate /

soils• Specific adaptations e.g. planting drought

tolerant species.

Morecroft et al. (2012) Resilience to climate change: translating principles into practice. Journal of Applied Ecology, 49: 547-551.

Accommodating Change

• Flexibility in designations• Review approach to non-native species and

genotypes• Increased landscape permeability• Transplantation?

enable persistence ---> accept change

resilience accommodation

Changing approach as the climate changes

1°C > 2°C > 3°C > 4°C

Resilience or accommodation?

---> promote transformation ?

→Ecosystem based

adaptation

Conservation can help human societyto adapt to climate change

Woodlands can...

• Contribute to flood and water resource management

• Prevent soil erosion • Provide shade or shelter for people and livestock

New approach to land management?

• Landscape scale• Multiple benefits

Wytham Woods• 400 ha• Mixture of ancient, secondary and

plantation woodland• Also grasslands and farmland• Owned by Oxford University • Long history of research

Glensaugh

Sourhope

Porton

Wytham

North Wyke

Drayton

Y Wyddfa(Snowdon)

Rothamsted

Hillsborough Moor House - Upper Teesdale

15

14

17

1316

3

22

2

1079

6

5

4 811

1

1921

12

L

I

FJK

NOP

G

HB

C A

DE

M

18

Alice Holt25

2324

26

Cairngorms

20

Environmental Change Network• Detecting & understanding change

• Physical and biological monitoring

• Research links• Started 1992

See Morecroft et al (2009) Biological Conservation

Yadvinder takes over.