Climate Change, Disasters and SecurityIssues, Concerns and Implications for India

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Climate Change, Disasters and Security…Issues, Concerns and Implications for India. Climate Disasters- CRED 2007 Report. 2000-2006 Average- 365. 1987-1998 Average- 195. www.em-dat.net. 10/26/2014. Time Line Trend of Natural Disasters 1975-2007. www.em-dat.net. 10/26/2014. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • Climate Change, Disasters and SecurityIssues, Concerns and Implications for India**Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI

    Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Research Fellow, CS3/USI

  • Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI*

    Temp- 0.74 (0.56-0.92) C

    Global snow cover has receded by some 10%

    Global average sea level rise - 0.1 to 0.2 meters Source: IPCC AR4 (WG1)Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change*

    Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Research Fellow, CS3/USI

  • Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI**Climate Disasters- CRED 2007 Report1987-1998Average- 1952000-2006Average- 365www.em-dat.net

    Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Research Fellow, CS3/USI

  • Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI**Global Disaster Trendswww.em-dat.net

    Major types of natural disasters2006 20052000-04 Geological363340.0Floods and related254206177.6Droughts and related606972.8Windstorms77125102.6Total427433393.0

    Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Research Fellow, CS3/USI

  • Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI**Occurrence by major types of natural disasterswww.em-dat.net

    Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Research Fellow, CS3/USI

  • Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI**Top 10 Disasters 2007EventDateCountryDeathsCyclone SidrFloodFloodFloodFloodEarthquakeHeat WaveCyclone YemyinFlood and landsl.Flood

    NovemberJuly-AugustJuly-SepAugustJune-JulyAugustJulyJuneJuneJulyBangladeshBangladeshIndiaKoreaChina, P RepPeruHungaryPakistanPakistanIndia4,2341,1101,103610535519500242230225

    Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Research Fellow, CS3/USI

  • Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI**Time Line Trend of Natural Disasters 1975-2007www.em-dat.net

    Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Research Fellow, CS3/USI

  • Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI**Trend Natural Disasters 2006 and 2007CRED Disaster CRUNCH 2007

    Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Research Fellow, CS3/USI

  • Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI**Climate Change- Disasters Security Nexus

    ConflictNatural HazardDisastersVulnerable ConditionsResource scarcityPoverty/inequalityPolitical instabilityLack of developmentLack of human securityClimate ChangeSecurity

    Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Research Fellow, CS3/USI

  • Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI**Climate Change- Indian Scenario

    IPCCIndian (NATCOM 2004)Warming - 2-4.7 C (3.3 C), winter 3.6 C summer 2.7 CWarming - 3 to 4C (2.1 to 2.6 C in the 2050s and 3.3 to 3.8 C in the 2080s)Precipitation - decrease in inter dry period (mean change -5%, range -35 to +15 %) , increase for rest of the year (mean change +11 %, range -3 to +23 %). Precipitation - 10 and 40% increase, variations in the spatial pattern, enhanced in northwestern and central IndiaSea level rise of 0.1 to 0.9mHigh along west coast Sea level rise 0.09 to 0.88m

    Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Research Fellow, CS3/USI

  • Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI**Disasters- Indian ScenarioIndia supports 1/6th of worlds population on 2 % of world's landmass

    59% of land vulnerable to Earthquakes 28% of land vulnerable to Drought 40 million hectares (12%) of land vulnerable to Floods 80% of coast vulnerable to Cyclones Different types of manmade Hazards 1 million houses damaged annually + human, economic, social, other losses

    Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Research Fellow, CS3/USI

  • Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI**Disaster Profile- India

    1994-1998 - Rs 28,678 Crores 1998-2004 - Rs 47,464 crores 2005 - Rs 87,500 crores

    2007IndiaChinaUSNo of Significant disasters213831Victims7.3 m88 m2.3 mEconomic damages3.3 bn US $13.5 bn US $5 bn US $

    Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Research Fellow, CS3/USI

  • INDIA ECONOMIC LOSSES DUE TO DISASTERSAnnual- Impact on People 1. Losses in lives - 4334.2. People affected - 30 Million.3. Houses lost - 2.34 Million.Losses in Thousand Crores Annual- Financial Losses Percentage of Central Revenue (for relief) 12%.311 %

    Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Research Fellow, CS3/USI

    Chart1

    Sheet1

    1st Qtr2nd Qtr3rd Qtr4th Qtr

    East20.427.49020.4

    West30.638.634.631.6

    North45.946.94543.9

  • Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI**Projected Impacts of Climate Change in India

    Coastal ZoneArea (coastal districts ) approx 379,610 Km2,Population density of 455 pers /Km2, 1.5 times national average of 324 pers/ Km2Sea level rise highest along Gulf of Kutchh/ coast of West Bengal01m Sea Level Rise displace approx 7.1 million people, about 5,764 Km2 of land are will be lost, 4200 km of road

    Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Research Fellow, CS3/USI

  • Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI**Recommendations

    Integrated Risk Management FrameworkAdaptation and MitigationStructural to Non Structural MitigationImpact AssessmentCCDRIModeling

    Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Research Fellow, CS3/USI

  • Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI**Recommendations

    Vulnerability AtlasClimate Change to Climate AffairsDevelopment as a Tool for Risk ReductionCentre State Relations International CooperationClimate Change- Need for Single Authority

    Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Research Fellow, CS3/USI

  • Thank YouQuestions?

    **Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI

    Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Research Fellow, CS3/USI

  • **Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USIIndia: GHG Sectorwise emissionsSource : NATCOM

    Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Research Fellow, CS3/USI

    Chart10

    0.61

    0.28

    0.08

    0.02

    0.01

    Sheet1

    Total GHG Emissions1288540MT380Energy61%

    79349055Agriculture28%

    CH4180821236998.4811750793Industrial8%

    N2O178Waste2%

    LULUCF1%

    Sheet1

    Sheet2

    1

    Sheet3

    ***Energy efficiency across the board very important

    Another relatively cost-effective area for carbon savings is land-use the sector accounts for 9-18% of global emissions. Hence important to tackle emissions from deforestation

    A substantial body of evidence suggests that action to prevent further deforestation would be relatively cheap compared with other types of mitigation

    Studies suggest that costs are low for early action on a significant scale

    Deforestation is highly concentrated in a few countries. Currently around 30% of land-use emissions are from Indonesia and a further 20% from Brazil

    Note are other co-benefits from avoided deforestation. The project in Namibia, Mozambique, combines sustainable agriculture and forestry to regenerate the local environment, reduce emissions and reduce poverty. Carbon credits have been sold to the Carbon Neutral Company, which specialises in supplying credits to the carbon offset market that is growing rapidly in rich countries

    But are important sovereignty issues. Situation different in Brazil, Congo Basin, Indonesia

    Large-scale pilot schemes can help provide more information about appropriate policy response whether carbon markets or not

    *