Climate Change Assessment
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Transcript of Climate Change Assessment
Climate Change Assessment: Methodology
Global Circulation Models
Hydrology Models of Basin
Simulation and Optimization Models
Impacts of Climate Change on all Watershed Objectives!
Projections of Meteorology Under Climate Change
Projections of Streamflow Under Climate Change
Model Source Model Name
Canadian Climate Model CCCMA_CGCM3
Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model GISS_Model_e
Meteorological Research Institute Model MRI_CGCM2_3_2a
National Center for Atmospheric Research CCSM3
National Center for Atmospheric Research PCM1
Climate Change Data• Global Circulation
Models (GCMs) provide predictions of climate (precipitation and temperature) for the future
• Different CO2 emission scenarios are generated by these models to account for possible future scenarios
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Projected Change in Annual Precipitation and Temperature Between GCM Historic and 2050s
Change in Annual Temperature (degrees C)
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nnua
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m/d
ay)
CCCMA A2CCCMA B1GISS A2GISS B1MRI A2MRI B1CCSM A2CCSM B1PCM A2PCM B1
Making Climate Change Data Usable At Local Scale: Downscaling
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0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Non-Exceedance Probablility
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nu
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Av
era
ge
Te
mp
era
ture
(C
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HadCM3 Cell (47.5, -120.0)
Regional Cell (47.5625,-121.8125)
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0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Non-Exceedance Probablility
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ary
Av
era
ge
Te
mp
era
ture
(C
)Regional Cell (47.5625,-121.8125)Snoqualmie Falls
73°0'0"W
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72°0'0"W
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42°0'0"N 42°0'0"N
43°0'0"N 43°0'0"N
44°0'0"N 44°0'0"N
45°0'0"N 45°0'0"N
Amherst
• Build a hydrology model of the Connecticut River watershed
• Force this model with climate impacted meteorology
• Generate climate-change impacted streamflow
Generate Streamflow Using Hydrology Model