Climate change as a global challenge

Climate change as a global

challenge

Including perspectives from IPCC AR5

Eystein Jansen

[email protected]

IPCC – Brief history

• Established 1988 by UNEP and WMO

• Governments are members

• Decisions on actions taken in plenary meetings

• But the work is done in 3 Working groups: WG1,2,3

• Led by scientists and work is done by scientists

• Assesses the published scientific literature

• Main reports every 6 years

• Forms the factual background for UNFCCC (Climate

negotiations)

Working Group I WGI

Working Group II WGII

Working Group III WGIII

Broad and open internasjonal collaboration

Authors Countries Comments

“The size of this warming is broadly consistent with

predictions of climate models, but it is also of the same

magnitude as natural climate variability.”

First Assessment Report 1990

“The balance of evidence suggests a discernible

human influence on global climate“

Second Assessment Report 1996

“In the light of new evidence and taking into account the remaining

uncertainties, most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to

the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.“

Third Assessment Report 2001

“ Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely

due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas

concentrations.“

Fourth Assessment Report 2007

“It is extremely likely that human influence has been the

dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th

century..“

Fifth Assessment Report 2013

Helge Drange

Geofysisk institutt

Universitetet i Bergen

Measured global

temperature

Helge Drange

Geofysisk institutt

Universitetet i Bergen

100 years ago (1903-1912)

Last 10 years (2003-2012)

Observered temperature trend

1.5-2.5⁰C

0.4-0.6⁰C

1.5-2.5⁰C -0.4⁰C

2⁰C

0.8⁰C

Source: IPCC., 2013

0.8⁰C

Clear warming trend

Forcing of climate change 1750 - 2011

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3.18

2.42 W/m2

Source: IPCC, 2013

-0.66

-0.15

0.05

GHG Particles

Total

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Causes for change in global temperature

Fig. SPM.6

Human influence on the

climate system is clear.

© IPCC 2013

Precipitation trends

Extreme precipitation events Less data, but an increase

Trends in days with extreme events (1951-2010)

Are there more weather and climate related catastrophes?

Floods Storms Aval. Heat waves Drought Forest and bushfires

1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

Reported events 4x increase in 40 years

Floods and storms most

frequent events Floods have increased most

Source: WMO Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water extremes


Sources of emissions

Energy production is the most important driver

35% 24% 21% 14%

6.4%

2010 GHG emissions

Energy Sector

Agriculture,

forests and

other land uses

Industry Transport

Building

Sector

AR5 WGIII SPM

20

06

20

12

RCP8.5

RCP6.0

RCP4.5

RCP2.6

Future and 2 degree target

AR5 – SPM

We have a choice

RCP2.6 RCP8.5

Fig

. S

PM

.8

We have a choice

RCP8.5

Dai, Nature Clim. Change (2012)

Serious to extreme

drought More soil moisture

Summer drought (index based on 14 climate models; 2090-2099; RCP4.5)


Potential negative effects

Food and water

Poverty problems

Increased migration

Coastal flooding

AR5 WGII SPM


Potential negative effects

AR5 WGII SPM

“The need for adaptation measures to cope with these

projected impacts is significant even at 1.5-2°C warming.

However, the Loss and Damage in Africa report shows

that under all warming scenarios and despite strong

adaptation efforts in the region, considerable adverse

effects of climate change will be felt in Africa, resulting in

further loss and damage.”

(ACPC Loss and Damage report 2014)

Rainfall is the most important climatic factor to many

African countries and its Inter-annual variability has a

major impact on national economies

Weather and climate extremes such as droughts and

floods are quite common in eastern Africa

Climate extremes are often associated with food,

energy and water shortages, loss of life and property

among many other socio-economic disruptions.

VULNERABILITY TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE

EXTREMES AND NEED FOR MONITORING, PREDICTION

AND TIMELY EARLY WARNING

THE CLIMATE SYSTEM in E Africa

Eastern Africa exhibits a large variety of

complex topographical features that play

an important role in modulating the global

climate e.g. contrasts in its surface terrain,

a large inland moisture source in the

Congo region, large inland lakes, and

many other inland processes.

Model resolution

Klima

Regional Downscaling necessary

SE-601 76 Norrköping www.smhi.se

For further information contact:Bo Holst tel +46 11 495 8363 e-mail [email protected]

Phil Graham tel +46 11 495 82 45e-mail [email protected]

INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION IN CLIM ATE CHANGE IM PACT

General

SMHI has a long tradition in hydrological modelling of

river discharge. A primary tool is the HBV model, first

developed in the 1970s at SMHI, but now applied in

more than 60 countries worldwide. Other hydrological

models, such as HYPE, HEC-HMS, VIC and ACRU,

are also used where appropriate. Hydrological research

at SMHI follows a holistic approach, and thereby seeks

improvements of the complete chain in forecast produc-

tion and environmental modelling. A current focus is on

developing appropriate methods for transferring dyna-

mically downscaled climate data to hydrological mo-

dels for input at various scales. This is a critical step to

correct for model biases that originate from climate

models. Recent developments to streamline this

downscaling process greatly facilitate the use of nume-

rous climate simulations in hydrological applications,

also known as “ensemble” simulations.

CORDEX ENGAGEM ENT

The COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment

(CORDEX) is an international programme sponsored

by the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) to

develop a coordinated ensemble of high-resolution,

regional climate projections for the majority of land-

regions of the world. CORDEX involves more than 20

regional climate modelling and statistical downscaling

groups.

SMHI is actively engaged in the CORDEX-program-

me and the head of SMHI Rossby Centre co-chairs the

CORDEX Science Advisory Team. The Rossby Centre,

with extensive experience in climate model develop-

ment and application, is producing future climate pro-

jections for a number of the regional CORDEX do-

mains, e.g. Africa, Europe, South Asia, the M iddle East

and the Arctic. CORDEX results will serve as input for

climate change impact and adaptation studies within

the timeline of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) and beyond.

REGIONAL INITIATIVE FOR THE ASSESSM ENT OF THE IM PACT OF CLIM ATE CHANGE ON WATER RE-SOURCES AND SOCIO-ECONOM IC VULNERABI -LITY IN THE ARAB REGION (RICCAR)

This UN-ESCWA-Sida project aims to assess the im-

pact of climate change on freshwater resources in the

Arab Region. It employs a consultative and integrated

assessment to identify socio-economic and environme-

ntal vulnerability caused by climate change impacts on

water resources in the region. Outcomes are expected

to provide a common platform for addressing and re-

sponding to climate change impacts on freshwater re-

sources by serving as the basis for dialogue, priority

setting and policy formulation on climate change adap-

tation at the regional level. RICCAR will provide regio-

nal climate projections coupled to regional hydrological

model simulations to assess impacts on freshwater re-

sources. It will also incorporate extreme weather events

analysis in the climate change impact and vulnerability

assessments. This UN - LAS (League of Arab States)

joint action includes a number of UN and regional agen-

cies. SMHI is a key partner responsible for both regional

climate modelling and hydrological modelling.

4 / 4 Climate Change and Water Resources – April 2013

The MENA (Middle East North Africa) domain covering the Arab region

is now an official CORDEX climate modelling domain. It was established

within RICCAR and forms the basis for RICCAR modelling activities.

CLIM ATE CHANGE IM PACTS ON WATER RESOUR-CES IN THE PUNGWE DRAINAGE BASIN IN MO-ZAM BIQUE/ ZIM BABWE

With a combination of climate and hydrological mo-

dels, the aim of this project was to identify the conse-

quences of future global warming on the water resour-

ces in the Pungwe catchment up until 2050. By

generating information on future trends in water re-

source availability in the basin, the project sought to

identify possible adaptation needs over the coming

years. The results form valuable input to continued

work with relevant stakeholders so that a range of pos-

sible adaptation, risk minimisation and coping strategies

could be formulated. SMHI performed both regional

climate modelling and hydrological modelling.

18 km 2 km

Bergen

Difference in simulated extreme precipitation

between 18 km and 2 km resolution in complex

terrain

NEED FOR MONITORING, PREDICTION AND TIMELY

EARLY WARNING

Climate monitoring and skilful seasonal climate

prediction is crucial for proper planning and

management of all climate sensitive activities

including agriculture, water resources and

hydroelectric power supply, among many others.

Most Predictors for seasonal rainfall in the region

are mainly based on SSTs and ENSO

SST anomalies over Indian and Atlantic Oceans

are however the main cause of climate variability

in the region

37

LINK BETWEEN ENSO AND CLIMATE

VARIABILITY

The Climate of eastern Africa depict very

strong seasonality. The climate anomalies

that are associated with ENSO events are

seasonal and location dependent.

Warm/Cold ENSO events are often, but not

always, associated with below/above

average rainfall amounts over most parts of

the eastern Africa during the major rainfall

seasons.

Urgency


Door is about to be closed

65% of carbon budget for 2°C target is used up

What we have

emitted

1870-2011:

515 GtC

What is left:

275 GtC Total karbon budget:

790 GtC

AR5 WGI SPM


Projected climate changes

Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further

warming and changes in the climate system

Global glacier volume will

further decrease

Global mean sea level will

continue to rise during the

21st century

It is very likely that the Arctic

sea ice cover will continue to

shrink and thin as global mean

surface temperature rises

Oceans will continue to warm

during the 21st century

AR5 WGI SPM

Ocean acidification will

continue.


Adaptation to climate change

Adaptation can reduce the risks of climate change

impacts, but there are limits to its effectiveness.

Some adaptation responses involve significant co-benefits,

synergies, and trade-offs.

Increasing climate change will increase challenges for

many adaptation options.

AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM,AR5 WGIII SPM

Climate change as a global challenge

Science

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