Responding to the Challenge of Climate Change

From an international perspective

24 December, 2010Hironori Hamanaka

Professor, Keio UniversityGraduate School of Media and Governance

Chair, Board of DirectorsInstitute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)

Asia Pacific Initiative (API)Climate, Energy and Food Security

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Source ： Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Compelling scientific evidence From Bali to Copenhagen to Cancun Beyond Cancun A way forward: taking actions toward a transition to low-carbon societies

Outline

Increasingly frequent Increasingly frequent extreme weather eventsextreme weather events

Flooding in southern Pakistan ( picture taken in 5 August 2010), source ： AFP

Heat wave and forest fire in Russia, source ：National Geographic News, 12 August 2010

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Retreating Himalayan Glaciers

Source: Nagoya University

““Climate-gate”: the results of Climate-gate”: the results of independent reviewsindependent reviews• The Independent Climate Change E-mails Review (July 2010)

– “We did not find any evidence of behaviour that might undermine the conclusions of the IPCC assessments.”

• IPCC press release in view of the findings from the review conducted by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (July 2010)– “The key conclusions of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report are

accurate, correct and supported entirely by the leading science in the field.”

• Findings of the InterAcademy Council (August 2010)– “IPCC assessment process has been successful overall.

However, the IPCC must continue to adapt to … changing conditions in order to continue serving well in the future.”

Source: Martin Manning, “Climate Change 2007: Observations and Drivers of Climate Change”

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal. 　

Global and continental temperature change

Models using only natural forcingsModels using both natural and anthropogenic forcings

Observations

Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy Makers, 2007

Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. 　

Global anthropogenic GHG emissions

Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy Makers, 2007

Emission allowances in 2020/2050 for various Emission allowances in 2020/2050 for various GHG concentration levelsGHG concentration levels (relative to 1990 emissions)

Source: IPCC AR4 WGIII Report, Chapter 13, p776.

Climate Change PoliticsClimate Change Politics• Divided world: developed vs. developing countries

– Historical responsibilityHistorical responsibility and equityequity 　　– Universal participation needed for effective responseeffective response→ “Common but differentiated responsibilities”

• Challenge of altering “carbon-intensivecarbon-intensive” practices– Policies advocated by scientists and environmentalists

often conflict with business interestsbusiness interests.– Impact of “green politics” in Europe, particularly in

Germany 　– “No-regret policyNo-regret policy” vs. cost effective cost effective market mechanismsmarket mechanisms

vs. environmental integrityenvironmental integrity

Kyoto Protocol (1997)Kyoto Protocol (1997)

• Legally binding targets for developed country Parties: Japan –6%, U.S. –7%, EU –8%Japan –6%, U.S. –7%, EU –8%, etc.

• GHGs: CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs,SF6.

• Base year: 1990 (Any developed country Party may use 1995 for HFCs, PFCs and SF6)

• Commitment period: 2008 ～ 2012.

• Use of GHG removals by LULUCFLULUCF (land use, land use change and forestry) activities.

• Introduction of flexible mechanisms: 　　　　　Emissions tradingEmissions trading, joint implementation (JI) and 　　 the Clean Development Mechanism (CDMthe Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).

Chronology of climate politics afterChronology of climate politics after 　　 　　　　the Kyoto Protocol entered into forcethe Kyoto Protocol entered into force• Kyoto Protocol entered into force (2005)• MOP1 (Montreal, 2005)

– Formally adopted the Marrakech Accords, setting setting Protocol implementation in motionProtocol implementation in motion.

• IPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007)• Bali Action PlanBali Action Plan (COP13, 2007)

– Decided to launch a comprehensive processa comprehensive process … 　　　　　 in order to reach an agreed outcome and 　　　　　　　　　　 adopt a decision at COP15adopt a decision at COP15 in Copenhagen.

• Copenhagen Accord (COP15, 2009)• Cancun Agreement (COP16, 2010) 　　　　　　　

　　　　　

Bali Action Plan Bali Action Plan (2007)(2007)

• Parties launched Parties launched a comprehensive process to address::　　　　　　　　　　　　　　– A shared vision for … a long-term global goal for for … a long-term global goal for

emission reductions, emission reductions, – Enhanced … action on mitigation of climate change:Enhanced … action on mitigation of climate change:

• Measurable, reportable and verifiable (MRV) … … commitments or actions or actions, … by all developed country , … by all developed country Parties, while ensuring the Parties, while ensuring the comparabilitycomparability of efforts among of efforts among them, them, 　　　　　　

• Nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing by developing country Parties in the context of sustainable development, country Parties in the context of sustainable development, supported and enabled by technology, financing and capacity-building, in a MRV manner.. 　　　　　　

Bali Action Plan Bali Action Plan (continued)(continued)

• Parties launched Parties launched a comprehensive process:: 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　– Enhanced action on Enhanced action on mitigationmitigation (continued): (continued): REDD, etc., etc.– Enhanced action on Enhanced action on adaptationadaptation to climate change to climate change 　　　　　　

　　– Enhanced action on Enhanced action on technology development and technology development and

transfertransfer 　　– Enhanced action on the Enhanced action on the provision ofprovision of financial resources financial resources

and investmentand investment 　　

• Parties have been conducting negotiations mainly Parties have been conducting negotiations mainly through through two negotiating trackstwo negotiating tracks::– AWG-LCAAWG-LCA– AWG-KPAWG-KP

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Negotiation process under the Bali Action Plan ：How it differs from that on the Kyoto Protocol ?

• Negotiation process on the Kyoto Protocol– Focused on the strengthening of the Annex I Parties’

commitments 　　　　　　　　　– Impact of the Protocol on the overall emission reduction

is limited, since it covers less than 30% of global emissions

• Negotiation process under the Bali Action Plan– Aims at enhancing actions by developing countries and

by the US, in addition to enhanced actions by developed country Parties to the Protocol

– Enhancing actions by developing countries is closely linked to support by developed countries

Politically agreed goal for Politically agreed goal for climate protectionclimate protection

• G8 leaders at L’Aquila Summit (2009): – Recognized the broad scientific view that global average

temperature ought not to exceed 2not to exceed 2℃℃,– Reiterated their willingness to share with all countries

the goal of achieving at least a 50% reduction of global at least a 50% reduction of global emissions by 2050emissions by 2050,

– Supported a goal of developed countriesdeveloped countries reducing GHG emissions in aggregate by 80% or more by 205080% or more by 2050.

• The Copenhagen Accord (COP15, Copenhagen, 2009): – Recognized that the increase in global temperature

should be below 2below 2℃℃.

Staying under the 2 ℃ threshold will require a very stringent goal, and the longer the delay in implementation, the steeper the trajectory required …

Source: Global Environment Outlook GEO4 environment for development, UNEP, 2007

And yet, there are large differences in per capita emissions among regions and countries …

Halving global GHG emissions and ensuring Halving global GHG emissions and ensuring carbon space for developmentcarbon space for development

途上国

Is it possible for developing countries to Is it possible for developing countries to take pathways towards low-carbon take pathways towards low-carbon leapfrog-development?leapfrog-development?

Source: Dr. Shuzo Nishioka, Dr. Mikiko Kainuma, NIES, 2008

It is important to avoid the risk of locking in more CO2-intensive energy technologies, and to capture an opportunity to leapfrog towards a low-carbon economy

Concerns over pledging targets and Concerns over pledging targets and taking mitigation actionstaking mitigation actions• Developed countries

– How big the economic burdeneconomic burden they would have to bear? 　

– Are their efforts comparablecomparable to those of other major economies? Would they hurt their international international competitivenesscompetitiveness? 　

• Developing countries– How much impact pledged actions would have on their

policies to eradicate povertypoverty and achieve sustainable sustainable developmentdevelopment? 　

– Whether and how the supportsupport pledged by developed countries would actually be delivered? 　

Copenhagen Copenhagen Accord (2009)Accord (2009)

• At COP15, most Parties supported the “Copenhagen Accord”, in that they:– Recognized that the increase in

global temperature should be below 2℃.– Annex I Parties commit to implement emissions

targets for 2020, to be submitted by 31 January 2010.

– Non-Annex I Parties will implement mitigation actions, including those to be submitted by 31 January 2010, that will be subject to their domestic measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) …

Copenhagen AccordCopenhagen Accord(Continued)(Continued)• Non-Annex I Parties… the result of (domestic MRV)

will be reported through their national communications every two years, with provisions for international consultations and analysis (ICA) under clearly defined guidelines. Mitigation actions seeking international support will be subject to international MRV.

• The collective commitment by developed countries is to provide new and additional resources, approaching USD 30 billion for the period 2010–2012. Developed countries commit to a goal of mobilizing jointly USD 100 billion dollars a year by 2020 to address the needs of developing countries.

Copenhagen Accord Copenhagen Accord and Its Implementationand Its Implementation

• Copenhagen Accord , while not being formally adopted by the COP, and only taken note of, is a step forward to enable developing countries to take mitigation actions, and to ensure transparency of these actions, in addition to enhancing mitigation commitments by developed countries.

• The Accord has been signed up by nearly 140 countries and more than 80 countries have submitted their mitigation targets/ actions.

Mitigation targets/ actionsMitigation targets/ actionssubmitted by Partiessubmitted by Parties

Country Mitigation targets / actionsJapan 25% reduction from 1990 level

EU 20% reduction from 1990 level

US 17% reduction from 2005 level

China 40-45% reduction of CO2/GDP from 2005 level

Korea 30% reduction from BAU level

Indonesia 26% reduction from BAU level

India 20-25% reduction of CO2/GDP from 2005 level

Brazil 36.1-38.9% reduction from BAU level

Major Challenges remained after Major Challenges remained after CopenhagenCopenhagen

• Building trust and confidence is essential:– To restore faith in multilateral process – To achieve an agreement on a new international

climate regime that is inclusive, effective and equitable, and

– To ensure stronger mitigation actions that will be necessary to fill the gap still remaining between targets and actions pledged by Parties and GHG emissions pathways that can limit the global temperature increase below 2℃.

Cancun Agreement (2010)Cancun Agreement (2010)• COP16 adopted the Cancun AgreementCancun Agreement and

restored faith in multilateral process:– “Transparency and inclusive” process– The main Copenhagen outcomes have been formally

brought under the UNFCCC• On mitigation, COP16:

– Created a process for anchoring mitigation pledges by developed and developing countries,

– Established a registry for NAMAs by developing countries and enhanced procedures on MRV/ICA

• Other important outcomes include on REDD+, adaptation, finance, and technology.

Beyond CancunBeyond Cancun• Big challenges to be tackled include:

– Raising developed countries’ level of ambition of their targets, with a view to reducing their aggregate emissions in accordance with the range indicated by the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.

– The legal form of the outcome to be adopted by COP17 in 2011 still remains open. Major options are the Kyoto Protocol (2nd commitment period) plus COP decision or plus new protocol.

– The issue of the continuation of the Kyoto Protocol remains unresolved.

A way forwardA way forward• Scientific evidence indicates serious impact of

climate change:– We need to avoid disastrous consequence.

• Transition to low-carbon societies requires a fundamental change addressing the very root cause of the problem.

• We need to take decisive actions and to seek to gain the advantage of early movers.

• Recognizing our carbon and other ecological footprint is one of the important first steps to take action …

Global ecological overshootdepleting the very resources on which human life and

biodiversity depend…

“Today humanity uses the equivalent of 1.3 planets to provide the resources we use and absorb our waste”

Source: World Footprint Do we fit on the planet?, Global Footprint Network,http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/

Ecological Footprint Quiz

Source: http://myfootprint.org/en/

“Eco-Home Diagnosis”• An interesting experimental programme being

promoted by the Hyogo Prefectural Government in collaboration with IGES.

4 steps:1. Recognize your position2. Choose/ set your target3. Know sources and

quantities of CO2 emissions from your daily life at home

4. Develop customized actions at home to achieve your target

Source: http://enviroscope.iges.or.jp/modules/envirolib/view.php?docid=2482

Where is your family’s carbon emissions ranked?

Source: http://www.uchi-eco.com/index.php?mode=uchieco　

Your family

Average

Carbon emissions

Your family is ranked at

Among 100 families.

Power rates Gas rates

Your family

Average

Carbon emissions at home: from what sources and how much amount?

If you choose “modest eco-action”, you need to reduce your CO2 emissions by 17%.

Use of hot water

Use of motor vehicle

Other sources

Actions for reducing CO2 emissions

Choose your actions for CO2 reductionCO2

reductionEnergy cost

reduction

Target Target achieved!Purchase efficient hot water supply system

Reduce the use of motor vehicle by half

Thank you very much

Hironori HamanakaProfessor, Keio University

Graduate School of Media and Governance Chair of the Board of Directors

Institute for Global Environmental Strategieshamanaka@iges.or.jp