CLIMATE CHANGE AND TRENDS OF NATURAL DISASTERS – WHAT IS TO BE DONE Peter Hoeppe Geo Risks...
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Transcript of CLIMATE CHANGE AND TRENDS OF NATURAL DISASTERS – WHAT IS TO BE DONE Peter Hoeppe Geo Risks...
CLIMATE CHANGE AND TRENDS OF NATURAL DISASTERS – WHAT IS TO BE DONE
Peter HoeppeGeo Risks Research/Corporate Climate Centre
2nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the Financial Management of Large Scale Catastrophes
Munich Re
Insurer for Insurances
Founded 1880
One of the leading reinsurance
companies
Covering risks of natural hazards
is part of the core business
2
MR-Publication Flood / Inundation (August 1973)
© January 2007, Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research
Munich Re the First Alerter to Global Warming
3
Origins and Types of Natural Catastrophes
Extraterrestrial: Meteorites
Geophysical (terrestrial): Earthquakes, volcano eruptions, tsunamis
Atmospheric (weather): Windstorms, floods, storms, hail, lightning, avalanches, mud slides
No human influence
No human influence
Pieces of evidence for human influence, risk of change!
Trends of Natural Disasters
Intensities
The last years have brought records in natural disasters
in respect to:
Frequencies
Damages and losses
5
Heat stress
Cold stress
light
extreme
high
moderate
light
comfortable
moderate
high
extreme
Perceived Temperature on 8 August 2003 and excess mortality
Sources: Robine et al., 2007; German Weather Service, 2004
19.500
9.400
15.000
300
2.300
20.100
2.700
1.000800
Heat wave of 2003, with more than 70,000 fatalities the largest humanitarian natural catastrophe in Europe for centuries
25.-30.8 Hurricane Katrina, USA (1.322 fatalities)
Insured losses (US$ m): Economic losses (US$ m): 125.000
61.000 (NFIP included)
source: AP
August 2005 – Hurricane Katrina6th strongest hurricane, largest losses of a single event
7
July 2005 – Mumbai Flood
On 26th July 2005 the meteorological station at Santacruz in North Mumbai (India) recorded 944 mm of rainfall within 24 hours, the highest ever in the history of precipitation recordings in India.
Insured losses (US$ m):
Economic losses (US$ m): 5.000
750
Fatalities: 1150
Flood series in the UK, June- July 2007Largest flood loss ever!
Source: www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/summer2007/index.html
Overall losses: > US$ 8 bn
Insured losses: US$ 6 bn
Overall losses: > US$ 8 bn
Insured losses: US$ 6 bn
9
Tropical Cyclone Nargis, May 3, 2008
Source: http://www.reliefweb.int
Wind velocities up to 215 km/h (Cat 4)
Floods in the Irrawaddy delta, also Yangoon affected
Human catastrophe
Estimated number of fatalities about 100,000
© 2008 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, GeoRisikoForschung, NatCatSERVICE
Victoria Wildfires, Australia (Black Saturday Fires)February 2009
Source: Reuters, Berlin
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009
Wildfires, February 2009
Overall losses: US$ 1,300m*Insured losses: US$ 650m*Fatalities: 173
Wildfires, February 2009
Overall losses: US$ 1,300m*Insured losses: US$ 650m*Fatalities: 173 *Losses in original values
11
Munich Re NatCatSERVICE – One of the world‘s most comprehensive databases on natural catastrophes
From 1980 until today all loss events
For USA and selected countries in Europe all loss events since 1970
Retrospectively all Great Natural Catastrophes since 1950
In addition all major historical events starting from 79 AD – eruption of Mt.Vesuvio (3,000 historical data
sets)
Currently more than 26,000 events documented
Great natural catastrophes:
Hurricane Ike Cyclone Nargis
Earthquake China
Winter damage China
Extreme temperature (heat wave, forest fires)
Flood
Storm
Earthquake, tsunami,volcanic eruption
Natural catastrophes 2008
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 12
Great natural catastrophes in Asia 1950 – 2008
Geophysical events(earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity)
Meteorological events (storm)
Hydrological events(flood, mass movement)
Climatological events(extreme temperature, drought, wildfire)
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at September 2009
Natural catastrophes in Asia
Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)
Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)
Meteorological events(Storm)
Weather catastrophes in Asia 1980 – 2008Number of events
Natural catastrophes 2008
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at September 2009
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Global natural disasters 1980 – 2008Geophysical, meteorological, hydrological events
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)
Meteorological events(Storm)
Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami,volcanic eruption)
----- Trend line
Num
ber
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE15
Climate change probably has a significant impact on increases of nat cat losses, especially in North America and Asia/Australia.
Global NorthAmerica
Europe Asia/Australia
1980 –
2007
Nat cat loss trend (% p.a.) 11 11 8 15
Climate component (% p.a.) 4 5 1 6
Comments
These data are indicative only – a more precise determination of the regional loss drivers
related to climate change is needed (e.g. via LSE cooperation)
Nat cat loss trend: growth rates of original/nominal values and not adjusted for inflation
Climate component: actually “Climate plus X” because influencing factors include
anthropogenic climate change, natural climate variability, changes in vulnerability and
changes in population distribution
Annual growth rates of nat cat losses and climate component
16
Black lines: decadal averages of observations
Blue band: 5-95% range 19 simulations from 5 climate models using only natural forcings
Red band: 5-95% range for 58 simulations from 14 climate models using natural and anthropogenic forcings
Quelle: IPCC FoAR, 2007
Global Warming is Real!Continental Temperature Changes
17
very likely > 90% likely >66% more likely than not > 50%
Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events (IPCC, 2007)
18
Trends of heavy precipitation events during summer monsoon in India
Source: Goswami, B. N. et al. (2006), Science 314
Increase of Sea Level for different CO2-Scenarios
*Basis: Range of ΔT = 1.5º-5.8ºC (IPCC TAR)
Quelle: Rahmstorf (2007), Science, 315, 368
A1FI
B1
140 cm
50 cm
Observed changes in sea surface temperatures
NATL = North Atlantic
WPAC = West Pacific
SPAC = South Pacific
EPAC = East Pacific
NIO = Northern Indic
SIO = Southern Indic
Source: Webster et al.
(2005),
Science, 309
21
Residence Time of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere
Greenhouse gas Value 1750
[ppm]
Value
2007 [ppm]
Human
share
[%]
Residence
time
[years]
Relative
green-
house
potential
Share
human
GHE
[%]
CO2 (Carbon dioxide) 280 384 30 120- 150 1 62
CH4 (Methane) 0.7 1.78 30 10-12 23 20
N2O (Nitrous oxide) 0.27 0.32 20 80-150 270-
310
6
CFCs (Chlorofluoro-
carbons)0 0.00001 -
0.0000005
100 1-260 500-
12000
10
SF6 (Sulphur-
hexafluoride)
0 0.0000042 100 3200 22200 <1
H2O Water vapor 1-3 1-3 few days 2Source: IPCC, diverse
Munich Re as a risk carrier
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 24
DESERTEC Conceptfor Energy, Water and Climate Protection
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 25
DII Founding Meeting at Munich Re13 July 2009
Desertec Industrial Initiative (DII)
12 companies signed a Memorandum of Understanding to establisha Desertec Industrial Initiative (DII).
The objective of this initiative is to analyse and develop the technical, economic, political, social and ecological framework for carbon-free power generation in the deserts of North Africa.
Insurance Linked Adaptation to Increasing Weather Extremes in Developing Countries
Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII)
MCII was founded in 2005 on initiative by Munich Re
Today MCII is a registered non profit organisation with members from: Insurance, NGOs, Relief Organisations, Research Institutes, World Bank and independent experts.
Objectives: Develop insurance-related solutions to help manage the impacts of climate change in developing countries.
Recent activities:MCII-Submission to UNFCCC with concrete suggestions of insurance tools to be implemented in a Post-Kyoto-Protocol. Suggestions are being discussed by delegates of the climate negotiations on their way to Copenhagen.
MCII
The MCII Proposal
Prevention Pillar
High LayerRISK
Middle LayerRISK
Low LayerRISK
TIER 1Climate Insurance
Pool
TIER 2 Support for micro and
macro insurance systems
InsurancePillar
RIS
K M
AN
AG
EM
EN
T
MO
DU
LE
The two-tiered insurance pillar
• Meets the principles set out by the UNFCCC
• Provides assistance to the most vulnerable, and
• Includes private market participation.
Premiums paid by AF
($5 bn)
Support financed by AF ($2 bn)
Support financed by AF ($3 bn)
Rough estimated
annual costs: $ 10 bn
RIS
K M
AN
AG
EM
EN
T
MO
DU
LE
Prevention Pillar
InsurancePillar
Low LayerRISK
mainlymainly
TIER 1Climate Insurance
Pool
TIER 2 Support for micro and
macro insurance systems
High LayerRISK
Middle LayerRISK
Evaluating the economics of climate risks & opportunities in the insurance sector
Main areas of research activitiesquantifying the costs of a climate-related increase in natural catastrophesdealing with the uncertainties of climate modelsevaluating the potential and consequences of emissions trading systems and the appropriate design of such schemesestimating the economic impacts of climate change on the BRIC states (Brazil, Russia, India, China)
Institute: Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy at LSEChair: Lord Nicholas SternManagement: Prof. Rees (LSE), Prof. Gouldson (Leeds)Project duration: 2008-2012Sponsoring: £3m (~ €4m)
Collaboration between Munich Re and the London School of Economics
30
Conclusions
Natural catastrophes, especially weather related events, are increasing in number and magnitude especially in Asia.
There is more and more scientific evidence for causal links between climate change and increasing frequencies and intensities of natural catastrophes.
Global warming is real.
We have to mitigate global warming and adapt to the changing risks in respect to the regionally specific risk patterns.
In Copenhagen ambitious CO2-reduction targets should be fixed to avoid dangerous, unmanageable climate change.
The insurance industry supports climate change mitigation and adaptation measures by sharing its knowledge with the public and providing custom made covers for innovative technologies.
31
The Copenhagen outcome should provide adaptation funds for developing and emerging countries, including new insurance solutions.
THANK YOU!