MUNICH RE TOOLS FOR STANDARDISED NAT CAT DATA COLLECTION AND HAZARD MAPPING Peter Hoeppe Geo Risks...
-
Upload
austin-ballard -
Category
Documents
-
view
215 -
download
1
Transcript of MUNICH RE TOOLS FOR STANDARDISED NAT CAT DATA COLLECTION AND HAZARD MAPPING Peter Hoeppe Geo Risks...
MUNICH RE TOOLS FOR STANDARDISED NAT CAT DATA COLLECTION AND HAZARD MAPPING
Peter HoeppeGeo Risks Research/Corporate Climate Centre
2nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the Financial Management of Large Scale Catastrophes
Munich Re NatCatSERVICE – One of the world‘s most comprehensive databases on natural catastrophes
From 1980 until today all loss events
For USA and selected countries in Europe all loss events since 1970
Retrospectively all Great Natural Catastrophes since 1950
In addition all major historical events starting from 79 AD – eruption of Mt.Vesuvio (3,000 historical data
sets)
Currently more than 26,000 events documented
Great natural catastrophes:
Hurricane Ike Cyclone Nargis
Earthquake China
Winter damage China
Extreme temperature (heat wave, forest fires)
Flood
Storm
Earthquake, tsunami,volcanic eruption
Natural catastrophes 2008
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 2
MR NatCatSERVICE Breakdown into catastrophe categories
Catastrophe class Overall losses and/or fatalities
Loss profile 1980s* 1990s* 2000 – 2008*
0 Natural event No property damage - - - none
1 Small-scale loss event Small-scale property damage
- - - 1-9
2 Moderate loss event Moderate property and structural damage
- - - > 10
3 Severe catastrophe Severe property, infrastructure and structural damage
US$ >25m US$ > 40m US$ > 50m > 20
4 Major catastrophe Major property, infrastructure and structural damage
US$ > 85m US$ > 160m US$ > 200m > 100
5 Devastating catastrophe
Devastating losses within the affected region
US$ > 275m US$ > 400m US$ > 500m > 500
6 Great natural catastrophe „GREAT disaster“
Region’s ability to help itself clearly overtaxed, interregional/international assistance necessary, thousands of fatalities and/or hundreds of thousands homeless, substantial economic losses (UN definition). Insured losses reach exceptional orders of magnitude.
* Losses adjusted to the decade average.
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 3
MR NatCatSERVICEEntry details: example Hurrikan Ike
Separate entries for the affected countries
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 4
MR NatCatSERVICEEntry details: example Hurrican Ike
Number of fatalities
Event description
Affected lines of business
Affected people
Affected infrastructure
Affected buildings
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 5
MR NatCatSERVICEExample: Hurrican Ike - Damages
30/o09/2008
Insured losses
Munich Re shareAdditional loss information
Overall losses
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 6
MR NatCatSERVICEMethodology
Expert Consultation
Harmonizing terminology of disaster perilsCRED
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 7
Geophysical Geophysical
Family
MeteorologicalMeteorological
Hydrological Hydrological
ClimatologicalClimatological
Main event
Earthquake
Volcanic eruption
Mass movement dry
Earthquake
Volcanic eruption
Mass movement dry
Sub Peril
Earthquake (Ground shaking)
Fire following
Tsunami
Earthquake (Ground shaking)
Fire following
Tsunami
Volcanic eruptionVolcanic eruption
Subsidence
Rockfall
Landslide
Subsidence
Rockfall
Landslide
MR NatCatSERVICEStructure – peril families
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 8
MR NatCatSERVICEStructure – peril families
StormStorm
Tropical cyclone
Winter storm (extratropical cyclone)
Tempest/Severe storm
Hail storm
Lightning
Tornado
Local windstorm (orographic storm)
Sandstorm/Dust storm
Blizzard/Snowstorm
Tropical cyclone
Winter storm (extratropical cyclone)
Tempest/Severe storm
Hail storm
Lightning
Tornado
Local windstorm (orographic storm)
Sandstorm/Dust storm
Blizzard/Snowstorm
Geophysical Geophysical
MeteorologicalMeteorological
Hydrological Hydrological
ClimatologicalClimatological
Family Main event Sub Peril
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 9
MR NatCatSERVICEStructure – peril families
Flood
Mass movement wet
Flood
Mass movement wet
General flood
Flash flood
Storm surge
Glacial lake outburst flood
General flood
Flash flood
Storm surge
Glacial lake outburst flood
Subsidence
Avalanche
Landslide
Subsidence
Avalanche
Landslide
Geophysical Geophysical
MeteorologicalMeteorological
Hydrological Hydrological
ClimatologicalClimatological
Family Main event Sub Peril
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 10
MR NatCatSERVICE Structure – peril families
Extreme temperature
Drought
Wildfire
Extreme temperature
Drought
Wildfire
Heat wave
Cold wave / frost
Extreme winter conditions
Heat wave
Cold wave / frost
Extreme winter conditions
DroughtDrought
Wildfire
Unspecified
Wildfire
Unspecified
Geophysical Geophysical
MeteorologicalMeteorological
Hydrological Hydrological
ClimatologicalClimatological
Family Main event Sub Peril
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 11
MR NatCatSERVICESources
Science Government, UN, EU, NGOs
News-Agencies
Meteorological Services
Insurance
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 12
Great natural catastrophes 1950 – 2008Percentage distribution worldwide
285 Loss events 2,000,000 Fatalities
Overall losses* US$ 1,970bn Insured losses* US$ 410bn
28%
41%
25%
6%
9%
80%
6% 5%
33%
38%
22%
7%
Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)
Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)
Meteorological events(Storm)
Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami,volcanic eruption)
*in 2008 values *in 2008 values
53%37%
6% 4%
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 13
MR NatCatSERVICEServices & Analysis
Thematic maps
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 14
MR NatCatSERVICEDownload-Center
There are 50 documents available in each language version
2008:30 000 Downloads
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 15
MR NatCatSERVICEAccess&User
ScienceGeneral public
Political committees
Analysts, investors
Clients
Staff
NatCatSERVICE
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 16
NATHAN
Web-based tool for risk analysis on natural perils worldwide plus
additional information on major disasters and country profiles
Web-based tool for risk analysis on natural perils worldwide plus
additional information on major disasters and country profiles
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 10.04.23 17
MR NatCatSERVICEServices
NATHAN - loss information
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As at June 2009 10.04.23 18
World Map of Natural Hazards/Globe of Natural Hazards – DVD / Wall map / Folding map
19
Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 – Products
Wall map/Folding map – World Map of Natural Hazards
Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 – Products
DVD – Globe of Natural Hazards
Knowledge in astate of flux All global hazard maps have been updated
Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 What is new?
New hazards Topics like flood and climate change are fully integrated
Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 What is new?
Hazard pointerPower function supplies quick information on situation regarding natural hazards and climate change for any location on earth
Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 What is new?
View from spaceKnowledge can be displayed with a satellite image in the background
Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 What is new?
Networked knowledge
Complex topics like risk management of natural hazards and climate change are linked in a sophisticated manner
Globe of Natural Hazards 2009 What is new?
Global Earthquake Model (GEM)Features
Dynamic: an (updatable) model, not a map
Global: covers also less developed/monitored areas according to uniform standards
Open Access: a (transparent) tool to use for everybody
Public Private Partnership: combining the strenghts of both sectors
An internationally sanctioned program initiated by the OECD, aiming to build an independent, open standard to calculate and communicate earthquake risk around the world
GEM: A Public-Private Partnership
International Scientific
Organisations
Intergovernmentaland
Governmental
EU
LeadingScientific Institutes
Zurich
Industry
GEM goals
=> Assess and monitor risk globally, especially in less well served regions
=> Raise risk awareness
=> Stimulate risk mitigation
=> Save lives, reduce losses and distribute the financial burden
GEM is not an academic exercise. The goal is to convert “knowledge into action”.
To achieve GEM’s goals we need “local champions”
• Probability of directfinancial loss
HAZARD RISK SOCIO-ECONOMIC
IMPACT €
Earthquake probabilities Building Code input
Earthquake impactUser awareness of risk
Financial toolsCost-Benefit Analysis
• Building inventories• Vulnerabilities• Probability of
damage• Probability of loss of lives
• Probability of indirect financial loss
GEM SetupGEM SetupGEM integrates developments at the forefront of seismological andGEM integrates developments at the forefront of seismological and engineering knowledge inengineering knowledge in three interconnected modulesthree interconnected modules
Probability ofearthquake occurrence
Probability of ground motion
5-yr Build-up phase: 35 m5-yr Build-up phase: 35 m€• Secretariat and global infrastructure• Global components• Regional implementation
Annual maintenance and operation: 2 mAnnual maintenance and operation: 2 m€/yr/yr
15m€ 15m€
Founding sponsor, Munich Re
Other sponsors (in progress)
Public Funds (in progress)
5m€
GEM Funding Scheme
THANK YOU!