Climate change and food systems: Global modeling to inform decision making
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Transcript of Climate change and food systems: Global modeling to inform decision making
Climate change and food systems:
Global modeling to inform
decision making
Keith WiebeSenior Research Fellow, Environment and Production Technology Division
International Food Policy Research Institute
Global Landscapes Forum
IFPRI Session: Informing the policymaking landscape: From research to action in the fight
against climate change and hunger
Marrakech, Morocco
November 16, 2016
Outline
What makes models useful?
Transparency, credibility, flexibility
Engagement with stakeholders and decision makers
Modeling approach – IMPACT
Climate change impacts on agriculture and food
Implications for policy
IFPRI’s IMPACT system of modelsExploring alternative climate and investment futures
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Source: Robinson et al. (2015) "The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT); Model description for version 3". IFPRI Discussion Paper. International Food Policy Research Institute: Washington, DC..
• Linked climate, water, crop and economic
models
• Estimates of production, consumption,
hunger, and environmental impacts
Climate change impacts in 2050The case of maize yields using HadGEM (RCP8.5), DSSAT, and IMPACT (SSP2)
Maximum temperature (°C) Annual precipitation (mm)
Change in rainfed maize yields before economic adjustments Change in rainfed maize yields after economic adjustments
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
Climate change impacts in 2050Average of 5 global economic models for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds & sugar
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0
5
10
15
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Yields Area Production Prices Trade
Perc
ent
change in 2
050
SSP1-RCP4.5 SSP2-RCP6.0 SSP3-RCP8.5
Source: Wiebe et al., Environmental Research Letters (2015)
Hunger in 2030by climate and investment scenario
(bars showing numbers on the left axis, dots showing shares on the right axis)
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Note: 2030-NoCC assumes a constant 2005 climate; 2030-CC reflects climate change using RCP 8.5 and the Hadley Climate Model, and 2030-COMP assumes climate change plus increased investment in developing country agriculture.Source: IFPRI, IMPACT model version 3.3, October 2016 (preliminary results from work in progress).
Health impacts of GHG taxes on food in 2020
Source: Springmann, Mason-D’Croz, Robinson, et al., Nature Climate Change (2016)
Key messages
• Results– Climate change increases pressure on natural resources and slows
progress in reducing hunger, especially in Africa South of the Sahara
– Also affects diet and health in all regions
– A mix of targeted policies and investments – recognizing tradeoffs –
will be needed to address impacts at national and landscape scales
• Making results useful– Stakeholders for global modeling include international donors and
research community
– Reaching national and sub-national decision makers requires links to
analysis and engagement at smaller scales
– Need to build these links and engagement into research planning and
policy processes