Cliff Mass: Big Data and Weather Prediction - Seattle Interactive 2015
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Transcript of Cliff Mass: Big Data and Weather Prediction - Seattle Interactive 2015
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Big Data and Weather Forecasting
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Weather prediction has been a big data problem for a long time
Petabytes per day
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Big data and weather: the observations
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Weather Satellites: Meteorological Data Everywhere
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NOAA PolarOrbiter WeatherSatellite
NOAA Polar Orbiter
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Cosmic GPS satellites provide more soundings
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Cloud Track Winds
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Aircraft
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Weather Radar
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Surface Observations
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Northwest Surface Observations
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Some of the smartphones/pads with pressure sensors
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114K Pressures in One Hour Over US From Three Apps
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Big Problem
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Quality Control of Big Weather Data
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The other meteorological big data: forecast models
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The First Numerical Weather Prediction
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Numerical Weather Prediction
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Observation Collection Needed to Create the Initialization
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These equations together are a time machine!
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Numerical Weather Prediction
National WeatherService WeatherPrediction Computer
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4-km UWMM5 System
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1.33 km resolution available on the UW web site
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Before the models are run there is another step: data assimilation
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Surface analysis of sea level pressure, surface wind, low-atmosphere temperature
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But there is another issue for big data users…meteorological and otherwise.
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Uncertainty
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Big Data and Uncertainty
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The Technology of Uncertainty
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Ensemble Prediction
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Ensemble Prediction• Can use ensembles to give the probabilities that some weather feature will occur. Not just precipitation.
• Ensemble mean is more accurate than any individual member.
•When forecasts are similar, forecast skill of the ensemble mean is generally higher.
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Statistical post-processing
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The UW has done this: PROBCAST
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Decision Making and Uncertainty
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Take Home Message
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Big Data and Visualization
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The role of visualization
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And there are some recent non-Xbox examples
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Imagine if we developed the infrastructure for weather animations, SHOWING people what the weather would LOOK like and SOUND like.
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Connect Weather Simulation and Videogame Technologies
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ForecastAnimationFor theNext Hr
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Take Home Message
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Big weather data can also help in the short-term forecasting
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During the past decade the volume of information on what is occurring now in local areas has increased dramatically
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And we have the perfect delivery tool: Smartphones
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Take Home Message
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The End