Nowcasting and Short-term Forecasting of Thunderstorms and Severe Weather Using OSCER
Nowcasting and Short-Term Weather Prediction: A High Priority for the Forecasting Community Cliff...
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Transcript of Nowcasting and Short-Term Weather Prediction: A High Priority for the Forecasting Community Cliff...
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Nowcasting and Short-Term Nowcasting and Short-Term Weather Prediction: A High Weather Prediction: A High Priority for the Forecasting Priority for the Forecasting
CommunityCommunity
Cliff MassUniversity of Washington
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Minutes to HoursAlthough weather prediction on the scale of days and climate prediction over decades and longer are undoubtedly important, only modest emphasis, outside of severe convective forecasting, has been given to the periods of minutes to hours.
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The Premise
• Understanding and predicting weather features on times scales of minutes to hours has the potential for huge societal benefits—saving lives, protecting economic assets, improving the quality of life.
• Recent technological and scientific advances have opened the door to huge improvements in short-term diagnosis and prediction as well as the communication of this information to the public.
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Bottom Line: We need more emphasis on
NOWCASTING
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AMS Nowcasting Definition
A description of current weather and a short-term forecast varying from minutes to a few hours; typically shorter than most operational short-range forecasts.
American Meteorological Society’s Glossary of Weather and Climate
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Some Examples of Why We Need It
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Nowcasting and Auto Accidents
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More People are Killed or Injured by Auto Accidents Associated with Roadway Icing,
Fog, and Heavy Rain Than Any Other Traditional Weather Threat (Floods,
Hurricane, Thunderstorms)
Consider the statistics of accidents occurring in the presence of rain, sleet, snow and fog, and on wet, snowy, slushy or icy pavement.
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U.S. Weather-Related Accidents
Accidents: 1,561,430 police-reported weather-related accidents per yearInjuries: 673,000 per year on averageFatalities: 7400 per year on averageBottom Line: A quarter of all reported crashes are weather-related, and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimates 57 percent of all weather-related accidents go unreported.
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State-of-the-art Nowcasting Coupled
With New Data Delivery Approaches
(smartphones, electronic message boards) Could
Reduce the Toll of Death, Injury, and Loss
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Heavy Rain Crossing Roadways
• Many examples of multi-vehicle crashes when convective cells cross roadways.
• Leaving the heavy precipitation in daylight often blinds drivers…and major accidents occur, sometimes involving tens of cars/trucks.
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Nowcasting Solution• Use time extrapolation of intense radar echoes—
perhaps providing 10-15 minutes warning lead time.• Use electronic message boards to slow down the
traffic and instruct drivers to leave more room for cars in front of them.
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Multi-vehicle Accidents in Fog and Dust
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Interstate 10 Dust Storm in ArizonaThree died, 22 vehicles
Oct 22, 2009
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Nowcasting Approaches
• Dust-lofting algorithms coupled with real-time observations could predict visibility loss.
• Satellite-based observations of dust and fog.• Fog diagnosis from highway observations.• Use of electronic message boards, flow
control, and smartphone warning systems to get the message out.
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Guiding Road Maintenance Crews
• Road maintenance crews need real-time information to pre-position trucks with deicer and plows.
• This information is often lacking with bad results.• Example: November 22, 2010—Seattle was thrown
into gridlock when maintenance crews did not realize severe icing conditions were imminent.
• Obvious from weather observations—cold air was surging southward and elevated roadways were covered in slush.
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Once the traffic locked up, it was too late—some people abandoned cars, others took 12 hr to get home. Probably could have been avoided if real-time weather
data was effectively used.
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Construction• Unexpected weather events cost the
construction industry many millions of dollars per year (if not billions).
• Some of these losses could be prevented if a short-term warnings of adverse weather were readily available.
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Local Example: UW Molecular Engineering Bldg.
Waterproofing goes on one day
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Washes off a few hours later
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Reapplied the Next DayHow Much Did This Cost?
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Wind Energy
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The Ramp-Up, Ramp-Down Problem Costs Millions
• Current automated forecasts have been poor at predicting steep energy ramps in the short-term• More effective nowcasting would greatly enhanced wind energy’s potential.
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December 13, 2006: The Madison Valley Storm
December 14, 2006Nearly 1 inch in an hour
Predicting Heavy Precipitation Events an Hour in Advance—Perhaps By Temporally Extrapolating Radar-- Could Save Lives and Property
One-hourtotals
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Do We Expect Such Events to Increase
in Frequency or Intensity Under
Global Warming?
A woman drowned in her basement
and dozens of cars lost.
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Recreation and Commuting
• Should I head out on my bicycle?
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NO!!!
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Short-Term Warning For Severe Convection
• Obvious and profound benefit.• The one area in which nowcasting is well-
developed and often effective.
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Current Status of Nowcasting• U.S. National Weather Service: not much
emphasis except for convective storms– 6-hr basic forecast cycle– Bias towards forecast consistency even when there
is a suggestion that reality is going elsewhere.– For significant weather NWS sometimes releases
special statements.– Not unusual for short-term forecast and observed
weather to be inconsistent.
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Forecast Released at 8:41 AM Sept 18, 2010
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Reality: Sunny Warm Morning
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Infrequently, a short-term forecast is provided
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Gridded Forecasts Every Three Hours,Updated Every 6 hr, Modified If Necessary
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The Weather Channel
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WeatherChannel’s TruPoint (0-6 hr)• TruPoint uses weather radar, satellite, a
lightning detection network, weather prediction models, surface sensors and observations to derive the current weather conditions.
• Temperature, wind, humidity, precipitation, visibility, and cloud cover are updated several times each hour for points every 1.5 miles across the country.
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Short-Term Objective Forecast• Start with NWS model output (RUC) as a "first
guess."• Statistically combines with geographical data,
conventional surface observations, satellite data, Doppler radar, and lightning data to produce the forecast.
• Apples quality-control procedures to ensure a sensible weather report/forecast
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Local TV StationsMorning, noon, dinnertime, and
late night updates
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Radar Temporal Extrapolation: The Predominant Automated
Nowcasting Technology
NCAR (RAL) AutoNowcaster
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The Key Ingredients For Next-Generation Nowcasting Are Now
Available
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Ingredients
• The Communication Revolution• The Weather Data Revolution• New Generation of Data Assimilation and
Modeling Systems• Nowcasting Testbeds
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The Communication Revolution• Until recently, a major problem for
nowcasting was the inability to get weather information rapidly to users…quickly enough for decision making.
• But that has all changed now.
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First, PCs Connected to the InternetHardwired, WIFI, or 3G
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Today Smartphones Offer a Powerful, Portable Platform for Viewing
Weather Information, Forecasts, and Warnings
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Smartphones are Ideal!
• Lots of bandwidth• They know where they are, so forecast
information can be tailored to the user• Substantial computational capacity.
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And other real-time delivery approaches now exist
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The Weather Data Revolution
• Exponential increase in surface and upper air data has given us a highly detailed view of the conditions at the surface over land.
• Extraordinary number of new surface networks, from highway departments and air quality agencies, to utility companies and local governments.
• Plus amateurs with good weather stations on the internet.
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Example:The Pacific Northwest
Based on 72 different networks
3000-4000 observations per hour over WA and OR
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And much more..• ACARS and TAMDAR data from aircraft flying
in and out of airports.
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Remote Sensing Mesoscale Revolution
• U.S. Doppler radars soon to include dual-polarization. Provides precipitation-type information.
• Global hyperspectral soundings—radiosonde vertical resolution every 15 km globally.
• Global COSMIC soundings using GPS delay information.
• And many, many more.
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New Generation of Data Assimilation and Modeling Systems• Can we effectively combine observations with high-
resolution models?• Can we produce a physically consistent description of
the atmosphere with short-term predictions every hour?
• Can we do this, considering the uncertainties in the observations and imperfections in the modeling systems?
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National Weather Service Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) System
•Hourly•13 km grid spacing•Includes virtually all mesoscale data sources.•18 h forecasts•MAP model•3DVAR assimilation
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Replacement This Year: Rapid Refresh (RR)
•Uses WRF ARW Model•Larger domain•Also 13-km•3DVAR
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High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)
•3-km•3DVAR
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But can we do high-resolution data assimilation more effectively?
Can we get beyond deterministic data assimilation?
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Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) Effort at the UW (Greg Hakim and
C. Mass)• High-resolution WRF ensembles (36 and 4-km)• 60 members• Three-hour cycle• Multiple Data Sources
– Multi-networks at the surface– ACARS and satellite winds– Radiosondes
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Mesoscale Covariances: A Big EnKF Benefit over 3DVAR
Camano Island Radar |V950|-qr covariance
12 Z January 24, 2004
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Currently Under Rapid Development and Real-Time
Testing at the UW
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Nowcasting Testbeds
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Olympic Nowcasting:The Last Few Olympic Games Have
Been Used to Test Prototype Nowcasting Systems
• Major, multi-national nowcasting efforts at the Sydney, Vancouver, and Beijing Olympics.
• Tested radar temporal extrapolation, radar-model hybrid extrapolation, ultra-high resolution prediction initialized with massive observation data enhancement, and other approaches.
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The Beijing 2008 Forecast Demonstration Project
• Systems from China, Australia, Canada, and the United States.
• Mix of radar echo extrapolation methods, numerical models, techniques that blended numerical model and extrapolation methods, and systems incorporating forecaster input.
• Focus on the skill of convective forecasts.
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University of Washington Department of Atmospheric
Sciences Has Been Developing a Range of Nowcasting Tools
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I90 Route View
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Sends emails to appropriate officials!
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Also sends out emails!
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A Nowcasting Test Using My Blog
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People Want This!Nowcasting Done on 11 January
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The Vision
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Component I: Complete the Nowcasting Engine
MesoscaleData from
Heterogeneous Networks
MesoscaleData from
Heterogeneous Networks
Hybrid EnKF/Variation
al Data
Assimilation/Short-term
High-ResolutionForecasting
System
Hybrid EnKF/Variation
al Data
Assimilation/Short-term
High-ResolutionForecasting
System
Mesoscale Analyses
Mesoscale Analyses
Short-Term (1-6 hr)
Forecasts
Short-Term (1-6 hr)
Forecasts
BiasRemoval
BiasRemoval
4D “Datacube”0-6 hr
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Component II: A Revised National Weather Service Forecast Office
• Less emphasis on human forecast intervention beyond 24-h
• At least one forecaster dedicated to nowcasting in each office. Hourly gridded updates of all basic fields (hourly time resolution) out to 6 hr.
• Starts with Component 1 and perfects it.• Hourly nowcasting discussion.
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Component III: New Generation of Nowcasting Applications for
Specific Needs• Drawing on the real-time gridded information of
component I and raw observations, produce real-time, nowcasting guidance for a wide range of societal needs.
• Develop range of Smartphone-based nowcasting apps. – Provides weather information relevant to your location:
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Some Examples
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WeatherProtector
WEATHERPROTECTOR
Tells you whether heavy precipitation, winds, or other weather issue are approaching your position.
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BikeWeatherGuard
BikeWeatherGuard
•Using a map interface, input your planned route and when you want to travel.•Tells you whether you should delay your trip, or perhaps leave a few minutes early, to stay dry.
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GardenKeeper• Using calibrated radar-
based precipitation data, tells you when watering is necessary at your location (considering water demands of your plants and evapotranspiration based on recent weather)
• Warns when freezing conditions are imminent during the winter.
GardenKeeper
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There has never been as big a gap between what weather forecasters know and what they communicate
to the public.
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And society has never had so powerful an ability to adapt and avoid dangerous weather.
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The END