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![Page 1: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Clean electricity options for a free Burma
Chris GreacenPalang ThaiSeminar on
“Energy: Tragedy in Burma”20 November 2007
Chulalongkorn University
![Page 2: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Outline
• Default scenarios– For revenue: Mega dams, gas exports– For electrification: power imports & diesel generation
• Addressing the Thai side– Removing bias in load forecasting– Consider clean, decentralized options on level playing
field
• Addressing the Burma side– Some clean community energy options
![Page 3: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Tasang7,000 MW
Upper Salween4,000 MW
Lower Salween500 MW
Hut Gyi 1,200 MW
Yawatit600 MW
Tanaosri720 MW
Planned megadams to export electricity to Thailand
![Page 4: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Natural gas
• Used to make 71% of Thailand’s electricity (among highest in world)– 1/3 of gas used in Thailand comes
from Burma– 20% of our (Thai) electricity bills pay
for Burmese gas
• Single largest source of revenue to Burmese military government– Accounts for fully half of Burma’s
exports in 2006– US$2.16 billion to junta from
Thailand.– Total, Chevron, PTTEP, Petronas,
Nippon Oil, etc.
Source: Burma: Foreign Investment Finances Regime. Human Rights Watch. 2007. www.hrw.org/english/docs/2007/10/01/burma16995.htm
![Page 5: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Sell electricity to Thailand cheap,buy back expensive
2 baht/kWh8 baht/kWh
1 baht/kWh
![Page 6: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Diesel
![Page 7: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Can we imagine something different?
![Page 8: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Addressing the Thai side:
1) Remove bias in Thailand’s load forecasting
![Page 9: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Demand growth has been linear over the past 20 years…
y = 844.21x - 2E+06
R2 = 0.989
0
10000
20000
30000
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Pea
k d
eman
d (
MW
)
Historic peak demand Linear (Historic peak demand)
![Page 10: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
But official Thai load forecasts are always exponential…
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Pea
k d
eman
d (
MW
)
2007 Forecast Historic peak demand trend
14,500 MW
![Page 11: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
… so they always overestimate actual demand, building power plants that aren’t needed…
including new hydropower in Burma…
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
MW
pea
k d
eman
d
Jun-93
Dec-94
Oct-95
Apr-96 (High)
Oct 96 (Base)
Jun 97 (Low)
Sep 97 (Very Low)
Sep 98 (RER)
Sep 98 (MER)
Sep 98 (LER)
Feb-01
NGO-01
Aug-06
Jan 04 (MEG)
Apr 06 Base
Jan-07
NGO-04
ACTUAL
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Addressing the Thai side:
2) Consider clean, decentralized options on level playing field
![Page 13: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Summary of PDP 2007
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Saving electricity is cheaper than generating it
Source: The World Bank (1993)
2.12.6
4.04.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.5
8.2
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
DSM Hydro fromLaos
Gascombined
cycle
Lignite withFGD
Low-sulphurcoal w/o
FGD
Low-sulphur fuel
oil w/oFGD
LNG Low-sulphur
coal withFGD
Nuclear
Type of Power Plant
Co
st
of
En
erg
y (
US
ce
nts
/kW
H)
Demand Side Management (saving electricity)
Actual 10-year DSM average
cost!!!
1.5
![Page 15: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
The Arun-3 story
• Planned 201 MW hydro in Nepal• Sell electricity to India, rural electrification• Nepalese NGOs and small business:
“Micro-hydropower cheaper, better for local economy”
• World Bank pulled out of project, project cancelled
• 10 years later…the Nepali power system has seen the addition of:– over a 1/3 more capacity than the Arun-3– at ½ the cost– In ½ the time it would have taken to complete Arun-3
![Page 16: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Addressing the Burma side:
(… besides the political and human rights problems…)
1) clean, decentralized energy options – especially for rural
applications
![Page 17: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Renewable energy fuels and uses
End use
Electricity Mech power / pumping
Water heating
Cooking Transportation
Technology Off-grid On-grid
Biomass Gasifier ● ● ●
Biogas ● ● ● ●
Steam turbine
●
Direct combustion
● ●
Biodiesel or ethanol
● ● ●
Micro-hydro
● ● ●
Solar ● ● ●
Wind ● ● ●
![Page 18: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Biogas from Pig Farms
Reduces air and water pollution
Produces fertilizer
Produces electricity
8 x 70 kW generator
Ratchaburi
Subsidy: 0.3 baht/kwh
![Page 19: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Biomass Gasification
Rice mill in Nakorn Sawan400 kW
![Page 20: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Gasifierelectricity from wood
![Page 21: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Biodiesel
![Page 22: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Efficient Charcoal
![Page 23: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Micro-hydroelectricity
Source: Inversin, A. R. (1986). Micro-Hydropower Sourcebook.
![Page 24: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
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Hydraulic ram pump
www.agr.gc.ca
![Page 30: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Hydraulic ram pump
![Page 31: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Solar cooking
![Page 32: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Solar electricity – off-grid
• 25,000 baht per household system
• 120 watts• Electricity
for 2 lights + TV
DEEP CY CLEEBB 125
3K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3KDEEP CY CLE
EBB 1253K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3KDEEP CY CLE
EBB 1253K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3KDEEP CY CLE
EBB 1253K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3KDEEP CY CLE
EBB 1253K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3K
SH-1210M
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![Page 33: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Thai solar home systems
203,000 solar home systemsSustainability challenge
![Page 34: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Solar water heating
![Page 35: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Ruggedized solar electric systems built by Karen medics in 3-5 day hands-on trainings
• 7 trainings (2003-2007)• >90 medics trained• 35 clinics
![Page 36: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
![Page 37: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Solar for computer training centers in seven Karen refugee camps
•1 kW PV hybrid with diesel generator•Each powers 12 computers
![Page 38: Clean electricity options for a free Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai Seminar on “Energy: Tragedy in Burma” 20 November 2007 Chulalongkorn University.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051417/56649f055503460f94c1a441/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Thank you
For more information, please contact [email protected]
This presentation available at:
www.palangthai.org/docs