Claude VilleneuveProfesseur titulaire

Directeur de la Chaire en éco-conseilDépartement des sciences fondamentales

Université du Québec à ChicoutimiConférence au Congrès canadien d’investissement responsable

Montréal le 18 juin 2012

Responsible investment and climate changeWhat’s different?

Towards an uncertain future• In the last forty years, science made the general

deterioration of the global environment an undisputable evidence.

• It threatens mankind’s ability to keep developing on the same path– Biodiversity losses– Climate change– Ozone depletion– Ocean acidification– Nitrogen and phosphorus cycles acceleration

World environmental assessment

• Things are getting worse • 550 pages • 90 indicators only 4

has shown significant progress• Sustainability issues•Actual international

efforts are inefficient

Economic growth and energy

World primary energy sources

Source: IPCC, 2011, Special report on renewable energy sources

Keep growing!

Source http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

SellBuy

Sources of anthropogenic GHG(Source: GIEC, GT3, 2007)

Émissions anthropiques en 2007- 29 Gt CO2éq

Global mean temperature trends

Source NASA: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif (février 2010)

Outcomes?• Higher variability and weather extremes («wild

weather»)• Higher temperature means • Accelerated ice melting• Sea rise• Water cycle perturbations (flash floods, drought)• Change in seasonal behavior and migration of

animals and plants

Future climateTempérature moyenne, avec le modèle canadien [scénario IS92a (2xCO2 en 2065)] (Service météorologique du Canada, Environnement Canada)

2010-2030 par rapport à 1975-19952040-2060 par rapport à 1975-1995

2020

2050

1,5xCO2 2xCO2

2080-2100 par rapport à 1975-1995

2090

Actuellement, c’est le scénario le plus plausible!3xCO2

Arctic sea ice

Upcoming global warming« We already have in bank a 2,4˚C global warming in the XXIst century even with the most ambitious GHG reduction programs, it is unavoidable. » . (Ramanhatan, V et Y. Feng (2008) On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenge ahead PNAS, 105:58:14245-14250

« The Copenhagen accord is not going to influence significantly the GHG emission patterns towards 2020 » OECD Environmental trends, 2012

Energy transition?

Source: IPCC, 2011, Special report on renewable energy sources

Losses 40%

Source: IPCC, 2011, Special report on renewable energy sources

Losses 35%

What’s up, Doc?• Global warming, sea level rise and climate extremes

will impact world’s economy in an impredictible way.– Agriculture – Forests– Transportation– Real estate– Tourism– Energy– Trade– Investment

Responsible investments?

• Widening investors responsibility to include stakeholders – Reducing climate risks– Addressing fundamentals of change– Catching climate opportunities– Helping capitalize on the multiple benefits of

sustainability

Risks

• Financial e.g. CDP and investors• Commercial e.g. Carbon footprint labels• Hazards e.g. sea level rise extreme events• Regulations e.g. carbon taxes• Procurement e.g. Energy prices

Opportunities

• Renewable energy• Low carbon production• Energy and material efficient technologies• Technological innovations

What does sustainability mean?

• Local vs global• Now vs tomorrow but what about

environmental «debt»?• Intergenerational equity• 7 +2 billions OCDE drafters?• How to invest in our common future?

Standing questions • Climate change is unavoidable. We must adapt

but how? At what pace?• How can investors take into account long tem

issues?• What is their power on multinational

corporations?• What can be your contribution to change?

How can it make a difference?