CIVI 6691 GHG and Control Term Project (Ibrahim Jammal)

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Submitted to Prof. Dr. Chen CIVI 6691 Greenhouse Gases and Control Ibrahim Jammal - ID# 27683642 Project Report 10/27/2016 Air Travel and Climate Change

Transcript of CIVI 6691 GHG and Control Term Project (Ibrahim Jammal)

Page 1: CIVI 6691 GHG and Control Term Project (Ibrahim Jammal)

Submitted to Prof. Dr. Chen

CIVI 6691

Greenhouse Gases and Control

Ibrahim Jammal - ID# 27683642

Project Report

10/27/2016

Air Travel and Climate Change

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Contents

List of Tables .............................................................................................................................. 3

List of Figures ............................................................................................................................ 3

1. Objectives:.......................................................................................................................... 4

2. Introduction (Statement): .................................................................................................. 4

3. Methods to be used in this project .................................................................................... 5

4. Airplanes, emissions and optimization .............................................................................. 5

4.1 Flight altitudes and atmosphere ................................................................................ 5

4.2 Airplanes emissions and impacts ............................................................................... 7

4.3 Model: ...................................................................................................................... 10

4.3.1 Jatropha Oil: ...................................................................................................... 11

4.3.2 Waste cooking oil biofuel .................................................................................. 11

4.4 Optimization ............................................................................................................. 12

4.4.1 Constraints: ....................................................................................................... 15

4.5 Cases, Results and Discussions:................................................................................ 15

4.5.1 Minimizing cost 2013: ....................................................................................... 15

4.5.2 Stabilization of emissions in 2020: .................................................................... 17

4.5.3 Decreasing the emissions in 2050:.................................................................... 20

5. Mitigation ......................................................................................................................... 22

5.1 International Agreements: ....................................................................................... 22

5.2 Individual Initiative: .................................................................................................. 23

6. Future .................................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.

7. Conclusion ........................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.

8. References ........................................................................................................................ 27

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List of Tables

Table 1 -Airplanes fuel combustion elements contributing to climate and ozone change. ..... 9

List of Figures

Figure 1 - Aviation impacts on the atmosphere. ....................................................................... 7

Figure 2 - Contrails left behind an airplane............................................................................... 8

Figure 3 - CO2 emissions/passenger calculated on ICAO website........................................... 14

Figure 4 - Ethanol and Biodiesel production increase ............................................................ 18

Figure 5 - Prototype model ..................................................................................................... 25

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1. Objectives:

This Study aims to recognize the impact of air travel on the climate change and its

contribution to the greenhouse gases levels. It also aims to study how to reduce its

impacts and identify the possible alternatives.

2. Introduction (Statement):

Aviation is the fastest and one of the most important mean of transport on earth.

Aircrafts can differ in size, shape and use; from the commercial, personal use to the

military use; from airplanes carrying four passengers, to airplanes carrying up to 853

passengersi.

The biggest part of the industry is made up by the commercial fleets (passenger and

cargo fleets, more than 80%). These airplanes use Jet fuel or aviation turbine

fuel (ATF) to run their gas turbine engines. Jet fuel is a mixture of a large number of

different hydrocarbons (fossil fuel). The combustion of the jet fuel results in the

emission of different types of gases. Some of these gases are a part of the

greenhouse gases; hence they have impacts on the global warming.

These impacts can be negative or even positive. Hence these impacts on global

climate should be studied to minimize the negative impacts and find a way to

increase the positive impacts.

Even though the air travel industry is relatively small compared to other means of

transport, like automobiles, but it has a bigger impact per passenger kilometer on the

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earth climate compared to the other means. Moreover, this sector is growing rapidly,

“since 1990; CO2 emissions from international aviation have increased 83 per cent”ii.

3. Methods to be used in this project

Aviation GHG emission, effects, and management

In this case study, aviation emissions will enumerated, showing their impacts and

effects on climate change. Also how it is possible to manage and limit their impacts.

Moreover, the impacts of the endless increase of the aviation emissions hence the

related increase in the global temperature expected to be calculated.

Optimization

Optimization is used to determine the lowest cost, emissions for current years and to

predict the future scenarios, and it will allow us to determine which field can be

improved to reach emission goals.

4. Airplanes, emissions and optimization

4.1 Flight altitudes and atmosphere

The impacts of the aviation emissions depend mostly on the flight altitude and

whether aircraft fly in the troposphere or stratosphere. The impacts on the

atmosphere can be noticeably different from the effects of the same emissions at

ground level. Flight levels are used to safeguard safe vertical separation between

airplanes; they are defined by a number, which is this nominal altitude in hecto-feet,

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which is a multiple of 500 ft, hence it always ends with 0 or 5. Therefore, a pressure

altitude of, for example, 32,500 feet is referred to as "flight level 325". “Most

commercial airplanes have a service ceiling of about 42,000 feet (12,802 m)”iii and

some commercial jets can reach about 51,000 feet (15,545 m) in altitudeiv, knowing

that the stratosphere starts at 59,000 ft (18000 m); at mid latitudes, it starts at

33,000-43,000 ft (10,000 to 13,000 m) at the poles, it starts at about 26,000 ft (8,000

m). Within the stratosphere layer, temperature increases; as level increases, noting

that the top of the stratosphere has a temperature of about −3°Cv. The increase of

temperature within the stratosphere with altitude is due to the absorption of

the ultraviolet radiation from the sun and the breaking of ozone, noting that clouds

rarely form at this level.

On an important side note, although the biggest time of the flight is spent on high

altitudes, but the part with the biggest impact on the environment is the takeoff and

the landing, hence as livesmartbc.ca advises us to book direct flight instead of

indirect trips, as they mention “direct flight produces less CO2 emissions that an

equivalent flight with many stops.”vi

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4.2 Airplanes emissions and impacts

Figure 1 - Aviation impacts on the atmospherevii.

The emissions of airplanes can vary from gases of direct impact on climate, like

Carbone dioxide and water, and others with indirect impacts, like formation of

contrails and modified cirrus clouds, production of ozone in the troposphere and

alteration of methane lifetime. Also other emissions like nitrogen oxides, water vapor

and particulates affect stratospheric ozone indirectly by modifying the chemical

balance in the stratosphereviii.

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Figure 2 - Contrails left behind an airplane.

The Table 1, below, shows airplanes important emissions, that have a big impact on

the atmosphere, with summaries of their roles that they play. These emissions are

separated into two groups, depending on how they affect climate: Direct, like CO2,

where the emitted compound can change climate, and indirect, where the climate

species is not the same as the emitted species, like modified cirrus cloud coverage

resulting from particles and particle parent material.

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Table 1 -Airplanes fuel combustion elements contributing to climate and ozone change.

Emissions Atmosphere Level Impact on

Climate Troposphere Stratosphere

CO₂ Direct radiative Forcing

Warming

H₂O

Direct radiative Forcing Warming

Contrail formation causing

radiative forcing Warming

Direct radiative Forcing Warming

Enhanced PSC formation causing

O₃ depletion Enhanced UV-B

Modifies O₃ chemistry causing O₃

depletion Enhanced UV-B

NOₓ

O3 formation in upper

troposphere causing radiative

forcing

Warming/Reduce

d UV-B

Decrease in CH4 hence less

radiative forcing Cooling

O₃ formation below 18-20 km Reduced UV-B

O₃ formation above 18-20 km Enhanced UV-B

Enhanced PSC formation hence

O3 depletion Enhanced UV-B

SOxO and

H2SO4

Enhanced sulfate aerosol

concentrations hence negative

direct radiative forcing

Cooling

Contrail formation hence

radiative forcing Warming

Increased cirrus cloud cover

hence radiative forcing Warming

Modifies O3 chemistry Enhanced UV-B

Soot

Direct radiative forcing Warming

Contrail formation hence

radiative forcing Warming

Increased cirrus cloud cover

hence radiative forcing Warming

Modifies O3 chemistry Enhanced UV-B

Note: PSC (Polar Stratospheric Clouds)

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Noting that, the decrease in ozone, whether in the troposphere or stratosphere, will

augment UV-B radiation and cause a decrease in the Earth's temperature.

Contrariwise, the increase in ozone will cause the reduction of UV-B and cause the

increase in the Earth's surface temperature.

Also, the temperature increase at the Earth's surface caused by the increase of

atmospheric CO2 concentration levels will be followed by the cooling of the

stratosphereix.

This table showed us the importance of the emissions on altitude and the different

impacts of emissions on different altitudes.

Furthermore, the amount of CO2 produced in the combustion process of aviation oil

is determined by the total amount of carbon in the fuel, because CO2 and water are

an inevitable end product of this process. Keeping in mind, that the transport and

processing of the CO2 released by airplanes, into the atmosphere, follows the same

trails of the CO2 emitted by other source. Therefore, “CO2 emitted from aviation

becomes well mixed and indistinguishable from CO2 from other fossil fuel sources,

and has the same effects on climate”x.

4.3 Model:

After a several years of research from airplane engine manufacturers biofuels were

approved for commercial use in July 2011. Knowing that, using biofuel requires no

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modification for the jet enginesxi. Jet Biofuel performs as good as regular Jet A1 fuel,

it even gives better fuel economy than the engine running on traditional Jet A1.

4.3.1 Jatropha Oil:

A study conducted by the Yale School of Forestry on Jatropha Oil, which is a biofuel

that can be used as jet biofuel, estimated that using Jatropha Oil can reduce

greenhouse gas emissions up to 85%. Noting these biofuels do not contain sulfur

compounds, therefore they do not release sulfur dioxide.

Jatropha Oil oil is a bit cheaper than crude oil, costing an estimated $43 per barrel

with the current barrel price of $46 for a barrel of crude oilxii.

On October 28th, 2011 Air China was the first to complete successfully flight by a

Chinese airline that used Jatropha Oil biofuel. The mixture was a 50:50 mix of

conventional jet fuel mixed with Jatropha Oil oil produced by China National

Petroleum Corp. The 747-400 powered one of its four engines on the fuel mixture

during a one hour trip around Beijing international airportxiii.

4.3.2 Waste cooking oil biofuel

In March 2015, Hainan Airlines has completed China's first commercial flight using

biofuel, made from waste cooking oil. The Boeing 737 plane used a 50-50 mix of

conventional jet fuel and biofuel made from waste cooking oil gathered from

restaurants. It is estimated that waste oil in China could produce 500 million gallons

of biofuel annuallyxiv.

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Studies by the U.S. Department of Energy showed that waste cooking biofuel

decreases carbon emissions by 50-80% on a lifecycle basis compared to Kerosene

based jet fuel.xv But the biofuel produced by waste cooking oil is more expensive

than fossil fuel; its price is estimated to be 30% higher than the regular fuel; because

there is a challenge in the large number of pre-treatment procedures, such as

filtration and extraction to reach the level of purity, from used cooking to aviation bio-

kerosene. Noting that, this biofuel price is around 6% higher than regular jet fuelsxvi.

4.4 Optimization

The Numbers used in this case study were based on all US Airlinesxvii This

study was conducted in

Total fuel consumption by all US airlines in 2013: 13.2 billion US Gallons

Total fuel cost to all US airlines in 2013: $40.5 billion USD

Average price per gallon of jet fuel paid by US airlines in 2013: $3.07 USD

Percentage of total US airline costs attributed to fuel in 2013: 34%

Total number of airplanes operated by US airlines in 2013: 3,434

Total number of flights operated by US airlines in 2013: 4.7 million

Average amount of fuel used per flight by US airlines in 2013:

2,790 gallons, $8,575 dollars

f expected system cost ($) every year

ACf: available fossil jet fuel every year (106 Gallons/year)

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ACw : available waste vegetable oil Biofuel from households every year (106

Gallons/year)

ACj: available Jatropha Oil Biofuel every year (106 Gallons/year)

COTf GHG-emission rate for fossil fuel (lb. CO2 Eq. per Gallon)

COTw GHG-emission rate for waste vegetable oil Biofuel (lb. CO2 Eq. per Gallon)

COTw GHG-emission rate for Jatropha Oil Biofuel (lb. CO2 Eq. per Gallon)

DTF total fuel consumption/demand (Gallons/year) (US Airlines)

PTCf cost for purchasing targeted coal ($/Gallon)

PTCw cost for purchasing targeted waste vegetable oil Biofuel ($/Gallon)

PTCj cost for purchasing targeted Jatropha Oil Biofuel ($/Gallon)

TAC total amount of allowed GHG emissions every year (lb. CO2 per year)

TCf target use of jet fossil fuel per year (Gallons/year)

TCf target use of waste vegetable oil biofuel per year (Gallons/year)

TCf target use of Jatropha Oil Biofuel per year (Gallons/year)

Based on the above mentioned numbers:

DTF = 13.2 Billion US gal/year = 13200x106 Gal/year.

PTCf = 3.07$/gal

Waste Cooking oil has 6% higher price, as mentioned above, therefore:

PTCw = 3.25$/gal

While Jetropha oil

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PTCj = 2.86$/gal

TAC = 110 Mton

Figure 3 - CO2 emissions/passenger calculated on ICAO website

According to the above table emissions per passenger are equal to 583.5 Lb. of CO2

per passenger, assuming the plane is Boeing 333 (Capacity 228 passengers) with

occupancy of 200 passengers. Hence the total emissions of the trip is = 116700 lb.

CO2/40072.8 lb. fuel per flight hence equal to =2.91 lb. CO2/Lb. Fuel.

COTf = 19.78 Lb. CO2/gal.

As mentioned above, in the case study, the waste cooking oil biofuel has carbon 50

to 80% less CO2 emission. Assuming 60% less emission, hence:

COTw = 19.78*0.4 Lb. CO2/gal = 7.9 Lb CO2/gal.

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Emissions by Jatropha can be less by up to 85% than the fossil fuel, assuming 65%

less emissions, hence:

COTj = 19.78*0.35 Lb. CO2/gal = 6.9 Lb. CO2/gal.

4.4.1 Constraints:

Availability:

Since the current demand in this case study is 13.2 billion gal., therefore, we

assume the availability of fossil fuel is higher than that, since it is abundant on the

US market, hence:

ACf <= 14000x106 gal./years

ACw <= 2000x106 gal./years

ACj <= 1000x106 gal./years

DTF = TCf + TCw + TCj

TAC<= 0.11 Mt

Hence 19.78xTCf + 7.9xTCw + 6.9xTCj <= 240x109 lb. CO2

Total Cost: 3.07xTCf + 3.25xTCw + 2.86xTCj

4.5 Cases, Results and Discussions:

Solving the above for the following cases:

4.5.1 Minimizing cost 2013:

Minimize the cost according to current demand of the year 2013, adding the use of

Biofuels compared to the original case, using only fossil fuel.

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minimize the cost subject to emmision and resources

Objective function = PTCf*TCf+PTCw*TCw+PTCj*TCj

f= 40,438,484,848

11,508,417,508 691,582,492 1,000,000,000

TCf TCw TCj

st1 11,508,417,508 <= 13,600,000,000 Fossil Fuel availability

st2 691,582,492 <= 2,000,000,000 Waste cooking oil biofuel Availability

st3 1,000,000,000 <= 1,000,000,000 Jatropha oil biofuel Availability

st4 13,200,000,000 >= 13,200,000,000 Fuel Demand

st5 240,000,000,000 <= 240,000,000,000 emission cap

st6 11,508,417,508 >= 0

st7 691,582,492 >= 0

st8 1,000,000,000 >= 0

Discussions:

To minimize the cost the whole available Jatropha oil biofuel was used, since it has

the lowest cost between the available fuels. The rest of the demand was covered by

Fossil fuel and the waste cooking oil biofuel. Although the waste cooking oil fuel is

more expensive, but has lower emission rates, this is why the rest of the demand

wasn’t covered by the fossil fuel only, so the emissions stay less or equal to the

emission cap. Comparing the total cost reached through the optimization and the

original cost, we notice that the cost reached is bit lower than the original one (40.43

Billions < 40.50 Billions), with lower emissions. Hence the use of biofuels doesn’t

only decrease the emissions; it might be able to decrease the costs too.

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4.5.2 Stabilization of emissions in 2020:

Aviation industry is committed to improve its fuel efficiency by an average of 1.5%

per year, between 2010 and 2020, to stabilize the CO2 emissions. The growth

expected of the aviation industry yearly is 5.3%, as it averaged globally, between

September 2014 compared and September 2013xviii. Also noting that the European

Union, greenhouse gas emissions from aviation increased by 87% between 1990

and 2006xix, this means an annual increase of 5.4%. Hence the growth rate can be

considered constant, using an annual growth of 5.3% the demand in the year 2020,

starting with the year 2013, will be higher by 37.1%, hence 13.2*109x1.371 = 18x109

gal.year.

Noting that the increase in global biodiesel production increased in 2010, a 12

percent increase from 2009xx, as shown in the figure 4 below. Consider the same

rate of increase annually for both waste cooking oil based biofuel and Jatropha

based biofuel. The total increase would be 84% by 2020.

Considering an increase in the budget of 38% from the initial budget/cost, hence it

would be = $55.89 Billion. (Similar to the increase in demand and the aviation sector

considered before for the year 2020).

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Figure 4 - Ethanol and Biodiesel production increase

Solving for the above numbers in excel, with the target is to minimize emissions we

get the following results:

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Stabilizing the CO₂ emissions in 2020 with the increase of demand and production

minimize the emission to reach the same level as

2013

Objective function = 19.78xTCf + 7.9xTCw + 6.9xTCj

f=

290,545,016,000

12,577,200,000 3,680,000,000 1,840,000,000

TCf TCw TCj

st1 12,577,200,000 <= 13,600,000,000 Fossil Fuel availability

st2 3,680,000,000 <= 3,680,000,000 Waste cooking oil biofuel Availability

st3 1,840,000,000 <= 1,840,000,000 Jatropha oil biofuel Availability

st4 18,097,200,000 >= 18,097,200,000 Fuel Demand

st5 55,834,404,000 <= 55,890,000,000 Budget

st6 12,577,200,000 >= 0

st7 3,680,000,000 >= 0

st8 1,840,000,000 >= 0

Discussions:

After the increase of demand in 2020, the aim was to the aviation industry was to fix

the emissions at the same level, but according to the calculations the goal won’t be

reached (240x109 lb. CO2 in 2013, while it’s 290 x109 lb. CO2 in 2020).

This shows that the production of Biodiesel is still not enough, since all the available

amounts were consumed, despite the big increase. Hence the companies should

use other alternative fuels in addition to the ones mentioned in this study.

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4.5.3 Decreasing the emissions in 2050:

The UNFCCC aims to turn the neutral growth of carbon (between 2010 & 2020) to a

decrease after 2020 to reach the half of the aviation emissions by 2050 compared to

2005 levels. The forecasts/plans are shown in the graph below:

Figure 5 –future aviation emission scenariosxxi

Considering the same demand and production rates, for both, aviation and biofuel

production for the year 2050. But considering the availably of fossil fuel is constant;

since the production of fossil fuel may slow down. The emission cap reduced to less

than 50% of its value in 2005.

Considering the emissions of this sector in 2005 was 144x109 lb. CO2.

Decreasing the CO₂ emissions in 2050 with the increase of demand and production

minimize the emission to reach the 50% of the 2005

level

Objective function = 19.78xTCf + 7.9xTCw + 6.9xTCj

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f=

392,496,000,000

13,600,000,000 10,880,000,000 5,440,000,000

TCf TCw TCj

st1 13,600,000,000 <= 13,600,000,000 Fossil Fuel availability

st2 10,880,000,000 <= 10,880,000,000 Waste cooking oil biofuel Availability

st3 5,440,000,000 <= 5,440,000,000 Jatropha oil biofuel Availability

st4 29,920,000,000 >= 39,072,000,000 Fuel Demand

st5 92,670,400,000 <= 167,670,000,000 Budget

st6 13,600,000,000 >= 0

st7 10,880,000,000 >= 0

st8 5,440,000,000 >= 0

Discussions:

In this model not all constraints were met, since the increase of biofuel production

wasn’t enough to cover the demand.

Nevertheless the emissions went even higher than the 2020 level by 35%, not

achieving the goal aimed for.

We can conclude that relying on biofuels only is not enough to decrease the

emissions; drastic changes should be done. Changes could be mainly design

changes that can make airplanes lighter and faster, and more fuel efficient.

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5. Mitigation

5.1 International Agreements:

Greenhouse gases from international aviation were not included in the scope of the

first period Kyoto Protocol; unlike domestic aviation and emissions by airports; which

were included in the protocol. As an alternative, nations agreed to work through

the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to decrease emissions and to

find a solution to the distribution of emissions from global air before the start of the

second period of the Kyoto Protocol in 2009.

On October the 6th 2016, in the city of Montreal, Government, industry and civil

society delegates agreed on a new global market-based measure (GMBM) to

regulate CO2 emissions released by global aviation.xxii Sixty six states representing

more than 85% of the global aviation activity had vowed to take part in a global

market-based measure to reduce aviation emissions; having a main aim 50%

reduction of emissions by 2050, compared to 2005 emissions.

5.2 The use of biofuel and airplane upgrades:

As mentioned before in this report, Biofuels can be used to decrease the emissions

up to 85%. Different types of biofuels have been used in commercial flights, such as

Jatropha Oil, Ethanol and others, and those fuels proved that they are efficient and

they produce less GHGs emissions.

Upgrades to the airplane aerodynamics can also help improve the fuel efficiency,

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and therefore reducing emissions.

Figure 6 - An example of an upgrade - The wingletxxiii

5.3 Individual Initiatives:

Mitigation can be also done on the individual level to limit the flying unless absolutely

necessary. Step taken could be:

Taking closer vacations, therefore shorter trips and less GHG would be

emitted.

Use other means of transportation when possible, especially public transport.

Trains and buses, for example, are much more energy efficient than

airplanes.

Use video-conferences for meetings, when possible, to reduce business air

travel. Corporations profit from reduced costs at the same time reducing

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emissions.

When it is necessary to travel:

Reduce the number of flights taken by combining trips, like visiting

friends/family and business travels.

Take direct flights when possible, since take-offs and landings consume the

most fuel.

Travel during the day, because flights taken at night have a greater impact on

the climate, since the contrails during the daytime have a bigger positive

impact than night, since during the day they reflect sunrays, but during the

night they absorb infrared radiations.

Travel in the economy section, because this yields in less missions per

passenger.

Take lighter luggage, because this contributes in lowering the airplane weight

as well, hence less fuel is consumed by the airplane.

6. Conclusion

Since this sector is always growing, the future effects of the aviation emissions on

the environment are questionable. What measures are going to be taken to reduce

those emissions? What special effects might there be, is there any ecofriendly

alternatives?

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As a result of this report, it can be concluded that the use if biofuels for airplanes is

not enough to reach the desired levels of GHGs emissions, although they might

have a notable impact in the near future, and they don’t require any modification on

airplanes’ design, and they can even perform better than fossil jet fuel.

Also, Environmental organizations consider that using biofuel is not the answer to

reduce airplane emissions, since as some biofuels compete with food crops, causing

deforestation and other harmful land use.

Hence radical modifications should be done to reach the emission goals, such

modifications has been subject of studies.

One of these studies is a study conducted by NASA and MIT engineers. This study

focused on the wing design. The “Digital Morphing Wing” could greatly improve an

aircraft's fuel-efficiency, reduce its emissions and make it fly more smoothly than the

conventional planesxxiv. Such modifications allow a 70 percent reduction in fuel use.

Figure 7 - Prototype model

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At the end, Aviation is like any other GHG emitting sector of transportation,

improvements and solutions are highly needed to reduce its emissions to save our

planet. Although it currently contributes to around 3% our global emissions only, but

every decrease counts. And also noting that it is a hard sector to evolve, especially

in design and safety, this is why more research is needed in this field.

7. Plagiarism Test

Please find my Plagiarism test on the below hyperlink:

https://www.thepensters.com/free-plagiarism-checker-

report.html?id=12d3d40a8602ee5e863515d1484b8ee8_1480652929:9353420

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8. References

i "A380 - A380 Photos, Pictures, A380 Videos, A380 3D View | Airbus | Airbus, A Leading Aircraft

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