WEIPING WU, PROFESSOR AND CHAIR, URBAN AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY & PLANNING, TUFTS UNIVERSITY

CHINA’S URBANTRANSFORMATION

WRI Cities Research Seminar Series — February 4, 2016

Weiping WuTufts University

China’s Urban Transformation

Weiping WuProfessor and ChairUrban and Environmental Policy & PlanningTufts University

weiping.wu@tufts.edu

Outline

� China’s urban system◦ Developmental state at work◦ Migration as key driver◦ Emerging urban regions

� Transformed urban form◦ Rising motorization◦ Increasing spatial differentiation◦ Leap-frog expansion

China’s urbanization at a glance~1980 ~2010 % change

Urbanization level (%) 19.4 51.0 162.9

Number of cities 193 657 240.4

Eastern region 69 344 398.6

Central region 84 218 159.5

Western region 40 95 137.5

Cities by population size

Super large (> 2 million) - 42

Extra large (1-2 million) 13 82 530.8

Large (0.5 -1 million) 27 110 307.4

Small & medium (< 0.5 million) 153 423 176.5

Agriculture’s share in employment (%) 64 39 -39.1

Ratio of urban-rural per capita income 2.6 3.2 23.1

Context of China’s urbanization

� Marketization – command to market economy

� Decentralization – central-local fiscal relations

� Industrialization – agricultural to manufacturing economy

� Migration – rural-based to urban-based society

� Globalization – autarky to open regime

Urbanization and regions

Defining urban

� Urban place◦ Cities (657 in 2010)� Criteria changed in 1955, 1963, 1984, 1986, & 1993� Generally, population greater than 100,000

◦ Officially designated towns (19,410)� Population over 20,000� At least 10 percent is non-agricultural

� Urban person◦ Nonagricultural v. agricultural◦ Locally registered v. migrants

Central policies at work� “Cities leading counties” policy in 1990s◦ More than 1,200 counties under 280 cities

� Reclassification of counties as cities in 1983, 1986, and 1993) or as urban districts

� Case in point – Chongqing◦ Original city merged with 40 surrounding

counties in 1997◦ Population changed from 15 to 30 million and

land area multiplied

Is Chongqing China’s largest city?

http://www.fnetravel.com/travel_info/english/chongqing-info/images/map-chongqing.gif

Migration as key driver� Unprecedented magnitude◦ >200 million – primarily from rural-urban

� Primarily short-distance migration◦ 70 percent within province

� Coastal region as key destination◦ Much inter-provincial migration originates from

central and western regions� Circular or seasonal migration◦ Primarily aged 15-34, males outnumber females,

and family migration about a third

Migration as key driver

1995-2000 (Source: Fan 2005)

2005-2010 (Source: Chan 2012)

Two largest cities at a glance

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Beijing

Migrant population (million) 0.54 1.81 2.56 3.57 7.05

Total population (million) 10.86 12.51 13.64 15.38 19.62

% migrant population 5.0 14.5 18.8 23.2 35.9

Growth rate of migrants (%) 235.2 41.4 39.5 97.5

Growth rate of total pop (%) 15.2 9.0 12.8 27.6Shanghai

Migrant population (million) 1.06 2.51 3.06 5.40 8.98

Total population (million) 13.34 14.14 16.41 18.81 23.02

% migrant population 7.9 17.8 18.6 28.7 39.0

Growth rate of migrants (%) 136.8 21.9 76.5 66.3

Growth rate of total pop (%) 6.0 16.1 14.6 22.4

Main destinations of FDI, 2008

Reconfiguration of urban space� No longer the egalitarian, low-profile, and

walking-scale socialist city� Linkage between work and residence has

all but disappeared ◦ End of cellular-type of housing built around work

units� Unprecedented residential mobility◦ Rising role of real estate development◦ Cessation of work-unit compounds◦ Less pedestrian and bicycle oriented

Changing modes in Shanghai

0%

10%

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50%

60%

70%

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100%

1982 1986 1995 2004

Other

Walking

Bicycle

Motorcycle

Car

Taxi

Public transit

Increasing spatial differentiation

� Concentration of migrants◦ Augmented by social networks that sustain

migration flows

� Return of pre-socialist divisions ◦ Migrants dominate poorer neighborhoods in less

desirable locations

� Satellite or “daughter” communities of migrants ◦ ‘Urban villages’

Spatial distribution

Between 2000 and 2010, many neighborhoods became dominated by migrants, especially outside central city

Sojourners in the city

� Positioning migrants in urban society◦ Labor is desired but presence unwanted◦ Limited access to urban benefits

� Most migrants trapped in two housing types in spite of high mobility rates◦ Renting private housing ◦ Living in dorm or workshed.

� Few rural migrants make transition from renters to owners after years in city

Driving forces of expansion� Incentive for local governments to covert

agricultural land to urban use to generate revenues◦ Financially profitable but uneconomical

� Urban v. rural land ownership regimes� Over-allocation of land for industrial use◦ About 27 percent, compared to 7 in Seoul and 5

in Hong Kong◦ Industrial relocation from urban core enlarges

overall proportion

1990 2000

2005 2010

Dilemmas

� Urban land constitutes◦ Future extra-budgetary revenue◦ Collateral for local borrowing

� Unsustainable source of financing◦ Decline in land value (from real estate

irregularities) could reduce investment◦ End of land capitalization process (circa 2021)◦ Major source of inefficiencies, distorted

incentives, and loss of state assets

Dilemmas

� Negative relationship between land supply and fiscal gap (source: Lu and Sun 2013)

What’s the future?

� Urban China is becoming more stratified both within and across cities

� Urban system most likely centered around strategically located city-regions

� Fragile human-environment relationship severely challenged by rising urbanization◦ Urban expansion, often in fragmented and

sprawling fashion, will intensify depletion of land, water, and other resources

� T