China Office - Jul 2020 The Greater Bay Area

China Office - Jul 2020

Savills Research

SPOTLIGHT The Greater Bay AreaGrade A Office Index

2

The Greater Bay Area Grade A Office Index

INTRODUCTION & GLOSSARY

Hong Kong Foshan Dongguan

Savills Research has launched its Greater Bay Area Grade A Office Index, hereinafter referred to as the GBA Grade A Office Index. It aims to provide market players, such as investors, developers, landlords and office occupiers, with a reliable benchmark for the GBA office markets on a city-by-city basis.

The research exercise delimits a geographic coverage, encompassing the nine mainland cities and Hong Kong within the GBA, and selects different base years for different cities in accordance with the differences in city and market development stages for compatibility and accountability. The calculation of the indices for Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Guangzhou start from 2009, while other cities start from 2013. In this exercise, the city of Macau is temporarily excluded.

Background Sampling, Timing and Delimitation

The rental index reflects the trends in rental changes among different cities and indicates the commonalities and divergences of the office markets in different cities.

The price index reflects the trends in price changes among different cities and indicates the commonalities and divergences of the office markets in different cities.

Rental Index Price Index

The total occupancy cost is a lump sum cost of net effective rent, property management fees and related taxes.

The GBA Grade A Office Index was first published in October 2019 and is updated on a semiannual basis.

Total Occupancy Cost Frequency of Update

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The COVID-19 outbreak resulted in stalled business activities and negative economic growth in Q1/2020, nationally and locally. The economic performance of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) was no exception. The persistent oversupply situation in the Grade A office property markets of many GBA cities brought about inevitable challenges to the market, as reflected by multiple indicators monitored in our GBA office index report, with the rental and price indices of the GBA offices decreasing by 4.1% and 3.6% half-on-half (HoH) to 159.7 and 204.5, respectively, during 1H/2020.

Over the same period, as postponements of new project completions in most GBA cities prevailed amidst COVID-19, new supply in the Grade A office property markets in the GBA was reduced by 48.2% HoH to 725,191 sq m. By the end of June 2020, the GBA Grade A office property market stock totalled 28.4 million sq m. Given the twin impact of the fragile leasing demand caused by COVID-19 and the influx of new supply in the last few years, the average vacancy rate of the GBA increased to 19.4%, up 1.6 percentage points (ppts) HoH.

Leasing demand from the international trade, offline learning, tourism and traditional manufacturing sectors softened while that from the TMT, online services (including cloud office services, online learning and e-commerce), healthcare, advanced manufacturing and finance (banks and insurance companies, in particular) sectors remained resilient or expanded in some cases, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic in 1H/2020.

Given due considerations on the above macro-and micro-economics, most office market players became more prudent during 1H/2020. Many landlords adopted rental concessions in a bid to accelerate the conclusion of leasing transactions and stabilise their building occupancy, while tenants enjoyed stronger bargaining power for their leases. This indicated a good time for tenants to review their real estate strategies for office upgrade, relocation, expansion and real estate cost optimisation. Owing to this, leasing activities and transaction volumes picked up in Q2/2020, supported by the resumption of work and production since March 2020. By the end of 1H/2020, total occupancy costs for Grade A offices of the 10 GBA cities declined, with Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Guangzhou decreasing by 2.3%, 3.4% and 3.2% HoH, respectively.

Eight out of ten GBA cities were in an early downswing in 1H/2020. In addition to a plethora of new supply being scheduled for completion in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Foshan and Zhuhai in 2H/2020, the lingering impact of COVID-19 should decelerate leasing demand growth, leading to a further decrease in average rents. Jiangmen and Zhaoqing, due to their less developed tertiary industries and the negative impact of COVID-19, are expected to see their rents struggle to recover.

KEY FINDINGS




GBA Grade A Office Rental Index, 1H/2009 - 1H/2020

GBA Grade A Office Price Index, 1H/2009 - 1H/2020

1H/2

00

9=

100

/ 1

H/2

013

=10

01H

/20

09

=10

0 /

1H

/20

13=

100

1H

1H

2009

2009

80

140

100

160

120

180

200

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

2011

2011

2017

2017

2014

2014

2010

2010

2016

2016

2013

2013

2019

2019

2020

2020

2012

2012

2018

2018

2015

2015

1H

1H

1H

1H

1H

1H

1H

1H

1H

1H

1H

1H

1H

1H

1H

1H

1H

1H

1H

1H

1H

1H

2H

2H

2H

2H

2H

2H

2H

2H

2H

2H

2H

2H

2H

2H

2H

2H

2H

2H

2H

2H

2H

2H


Source: Savills Research


GBA

GBA

Guangzhou

Zhaoqing

Guangzhou

Zhaoqing

Shenzhen

Foshan

Shenzhen

Foshan

Jiangmen

Zhongshan

Jiangmen

Zhongshan

Dongguan

Zhuhai

Dongguan

Zhuhai

Hong Kong

Huizhou

Hong Kong

Huizhou

THE GREATER BAY AREAGRADE A OFFICE INDEX

The Greater Bay Area Grade A Office Index大湾区甲级写字楼指数

5 savills.com.cn/research 55

Due to the twin impact of the accelerating new completions and decelerating leasing demand beginning in 2019, oversupply pressure grew in most GBA cities, and the situation was further intensified by COVID-19. The GBA office rental and price indices, therefore, continued to dip. Meanwhile, the decrement of the rental index was larger than that of price, leading to a further yield compression during 1H/2020.

By the end of 1H/2020, the rental index of GBA Grade A office market fell by 4.1% HoH to 159.7, with the decrease being 1.6 ppts larger than that in 2H/2019.

The office leasing demand in Hong Kong was diminished by the collective impact of the continued epidemic prevention and control measures, suspended economic and business activities and the complicated international and local social environment. By the end of 1H/2020, the average rent in Hong Kong slipped for the fourth consecutive quarter, with its rental index decreasing by 4.0% HoH to 184.9 — the worst quarterly performance since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

Leasing competition in Shenzhen’s office property market remained fierce as new supply would surpass a million sq m within 2020 and the pressure on market digestion continued to increase. Offering aggressive rental concessions in exchange for higher occupancy rates became one of the primary approaches among landlords in the market, which led the city’s rental index to decrease by 4.7% HoH to 141.5.

Most landlords in Guangzhou, however, adopted a wait-and-see attitude and aggressive leasing strategies were broadly muted despite the disruption of COVID-19. This was especially true among all non-SOE landlords. Only a few SOE landlords were called to offer flexibility in leasing terms to accelerate transactions or retain high-quality tenants. With that being said, the Guangzhou rental index decreased by 3.0% HoH to 150.9, and the decrement was the third-lowest among the GBA cities.

The GBA office price index decreased by 3.6% HoH to 204.5 by the end of 1H/2020, for many of the same reasons as our other rental indices decreased over the same period.

The Hong Kong market remained difficult given the triple impacts of US-China trade tensions, the local social unrest and the COVID-19 pandemic. Some aggressive investors hoped to acquire assets at prices with significant discounts, while most end-users held back from making any purchase decisions due to growing uncertainties on business prospects. Office price index in Hong Kong, therefore, dropped by 4.3% HoH to 239.2 in response to the market demand retrenchment.

The office investment markets in Guangzhou and Shenzhen remained active during 1H/2020. Shenzhen continued to attract a wide spectrum of investors for its ample political and policy support. Meanwhile, many landlords showed greater flexibility in price negotiation and correction, which led the price index to decrease by 8.5% HoH to 190.8. This was the most significant HoH decrease among GBA cities. By contrast, landlords’ sentiment in Guangzhou diverged by the type of project owners. Individual landlords appeared to show a growing need of disposing assets at a lower price in a bid to improve their liquidity, but most institutional landlords and developers chose to keep their wait-and-see attitude, holding their prices firm, and wait to dispose of their assets after the economic downturn. Collectively, these factors caused the price index to decrease by 4.2% HoH to 147.2.

The impact of COVID-19 on Dongguan and Foshan was relatively mild in 1H/2020. Although some developers in Dongguan offered small price discounts to stimulate purchasing demand and close transactions, the recent commercial land sales market remained active and high sales price premiums in the land sales transactions shored up market confidence. The Dongguan price index only edged down by 0.5% to 140.4 by 1H/2020 as a result. Most developers in Foshan refrained from offering big discounts on prices as the impact of the disruption and financial pressure were comparatively minimal. Meanwhile, many local investors broadly contended that office properties should be one of the risk-averse investment vehicles, complete with refinancing capabilities, and, therefore, showed growing investment interests in office property investment opportunities. As a result, the Foshan price index was pushed up by 0.3% HoH to 100.0.



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Economic Structure By City, Q1/2020

GDP (LHS) YoY Change (RHS)


0 -60%

-30%

0%

-50%

-20%

10%

-40%

-10%

20%

1,000

3,000

5,000

7,000

6,000

8,000

4,000

2,000

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

GDP & ECONOMIC STRUCTUREBY CITY

Source: Local Bureau of Statistics, Census and Statistics Department, HKSAR, Statistics and Census Service, Macau SAR, Savills Research

Source: Local Bureau of Statistics, Census and Statistics Department, HKSAR, Statistics and Census Service, Macau SAR, Savills Research

RM

B b

illio

n

Shanghai

Shanghai

Guangzhou

Guangzhou

Zhongshan

Zhongshan

Macau

Macau

Shenzhen

Shenzhen

Dongguan

Dongguan

Jiangmen

Jiangmen

Beijing

Beijing

Foshan

Foshan

Zhuhai

Zhuhai

Hong Kong

Hong Kong

Huizhou

Huizhou

Zhaoqing

Zhaoqing

GDP and YoY Change By City, Q1/2020

Tertiary Industry Secondary Industry Primary Industry

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As many landlords in the GBA had to postpone their project completions due to COVID-19 during 1H/2020, the supply peaks of most cities were delayed to 2021 or 2022. New supply in the Grade A office property markets in the GBA was reduced by 48.2% HoH to 725,191 sq m, while the stock of that totalled 28.4 million sq m by the end of 1H/2020. Among all GBA cities, Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Guangzhou continued to collectively take the lion’s share, with their stocks reaching 7.9 million sq m, 7.8 million sq m and 5.3 million sq m, and accounting for 27.9%, 27.5% and 18.7% of the GBA total stock, respectively.

The COVID-19 pandemic brought not only challenges but also opportunities to the market. With growing economic uncertainties resulting from the disruption, leasing demand from the international trade, offline learning, tourism and traditional manufacturing sectors weakened, while that from the TMT, online services (including cloud office services, online learning and e-commerce), healthcare, advanced manufacturing, and finance (banks and insurance companies, in particular) sectors remained resilient or expanded in some cases. This was exemplified by several major leasing transactions from the above-mentioned sectors in some GBA cities, which supported the growth of the overall leasing demand.


0 0%

100

500

300

700

200

600

400

800

5%

25%

15%

35%

10%

30%

20%

40%

45%900

Macau

Stock and Vacancy Rate by City, 1H/2020

mill

ion

sq

m

Hong Kong

Foshan

Guangzhou

Zhuhai

Jiangmen

Shenzhen

Huizhou

Dongguan

Zhongshan

Zhaoqing

Existing Stock (LHS) Vacancy Rate (RHS)

SUPPLY & DEMANDANALYSIS

Constrained by the external and internal economic headwinds, leasing demand in Hong Kong eroded in 1H/2020, with retail and hospitality sectors being hit the hardest. Meanwhile, some companies had to postpone their Hong Kong IPOs because of COVID-19, and this will, in turn, have a ripple effect on the business development of the local financial and professional services sectors, with postponements in their office relocations or expansions. The citywide average vacancy rate increased by 0.5 ppts HoH to 5.2%.

Driven by the TMT sector, which was one of the most outperforming sectors in Shenzhen, the overall leasing demand showed an upward trend during 1H/2020, particularly in the High-Tech Park and Qianhai submarkets. However, new supply continued to be injected into the market with limited obstacles from COVID-19, pushing up Shenzhen’s stock and making it on par with Hong Kong by the end of 1H/2020. On the back of the constant economic uncertainties and the deteriorated oversupply situation, market digestion and rental growth faced mounting pressure, which made its citywide average vacancy rate to surge to 28.1% — the highest among the four tier-one mainland cities.

Leasing demand in Guangzhou showed a U-shaped recovery during 1H/2020, as demonstrated by a rebound in its net absorption and return to the positive growth quadrant in Q2/2020. The TMT sector in Guangzhou continued to boom amidst COVID-19, making itself one of the growth poles of the office leasing demand in the locality. Overall, the supply and demand dynamics in the Guangzhou office property market remained relatively healthy. The citywide average vacancy rate structurally edged up to 6.5% — the second-lowest after Hong Kong in the GBA.

Business sentiment of enterprises from the manufacturing industry in Foshan weakened, slowing these entrepreneurs’ corporate real estate leasing and acquisition activities. Considering that property investment is one of the best investment channels in China to hedge inflation and capital depreciation and to leverage for a higher financing capability, some enterprises showed more interest in acquiring office properties. While this boosted the purchasing demand in the office sales market, it diminished the leasing demand. Nevertheless, leasing performance of those new projects completed in 2019 was positive in 1H/2020, especially those projects with convenient transportation and retail auxiliary facilities, and the citywide average vacancy rate edged up by 0.1 ppts HoH to 38.5%.

Hong Kong Guangzhou

Shenzhen Foshan


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Total Occupancy Cost, 1H/2020

846.2716.2

57.372.7

67.158.2

8.9

75.357.7

17.6

220.5193.5

27.0

67.661.2

6.4

200.9170.5

30.4

52.943.3

9.6

394.7360.5

Beijing

34.2

108.788.2

20.5

48.243.2

5.0

263.3228.3

shanghai

35.0

73.464.0

9.4

0 150 300 450 600 750 900

-6%-8%-10% -4% -2% 0%

TOTAL OCCUPANCY COST

Total Occupancy Cost, 1H/2020

Hong Kong

Guangzhou

Dongguan

Shanghai

Zhongshan

Jiangmen

Beijing

Zhuhai

Huizhou

Shenzhen

Foshan

Zhaoqing


RMB per sq m per month

Hong Kong Shenzhen Guangzhou Zhuhai

Dongguang

Foshan

Huizhou Jiangmen Zhaoqing

Inclusive

InclusiveInclusive

Inclusive

Inclusive

Inclusive

Inclusive

Inclusive

Inclusive

Net Effective Rent (RMB per sq m per month)

Related Tax (RMB per sq m per month)

Management Fee (RMB per sq m per month)

Zhongshan

InclusiveInclusive


Total Occupancy Cost HoH Change, 1H/2020

Hong Kong

Guangzhou

Dongguan

Zhongshan

Jiangmen

Zhuhai

Huizhou

Shenzhen

Foshan

Zhaoqing


9



Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic in 1H/2020, China was the first country containing the epidemic and recorded an economic rebound by the end of June 2020. However, the impact of the disruption on the economic fundamentals could not be underestimated. Although the central government offered more flexibility in the financial and monetary policies, which gradually facilitated the economic rebound, the ripple effect of COVID-19 remained too complicated to predict due to the increasing connectivity between global economies. As most market players believed in a possible economic downturn in the short-to mid-term, fostering a more cautious attitude towards their corporate real estate strategies and decision making. Despite decreases in rents and total occupancy costs, pressure on tenants’ business operation was to some extent relieved, which should benefit the economic recovery.

Given the prevalent oversupply situation in Shenzhen, Foshan, Dongguan and Zhuhai, and the constant external and internal economic uncertainties, leasing market growth momentum was limited, bringing about a more profound impact on rental growth than COVID-19. In addition, similar market concerns arose in Guangzhou as a new supply peak in the market looms on the horizon. In view of this, policy supports from the authorities should play a prominent role in helping digest market supply and optimise the supply and demand dynamics. These included incentive policies for industrial development and new enterprises, talent schemes, the development of infrastructure and the business environment and others.

More leasing incentives were broadly adopted by most landlords in the GBA, including longer rent-free periods, further rental cuts and higher commission rates, in a bid to attract or retain tenants. This was most obvious in the markets of Shenzhen, Dongguan, Zhaoqing and Jiangmen, where landlords showed higher flexibility in leasing terms, as was the case of a landlord in Shenzhen that offered 3 to 12 months rent-free periods to attract bellwether enterprises as their anchors. As a result, demand in Shenzhen increased with the citywide net absorption increasing by 20.5% YoY during 1H/2020. On the other hand, markets in key node cities were dominated by individual landlords, who have fewer requirements on clientele and profile. Landlords are expected to continue with the aforementioned financial and non-financial incentives, but the extent of which should be narrowed in 2H/2020 as COVID-19 remains contained and economics rebound further.

In the context of decreasing rents and total occupancy costs, the office property market in the GBA became tenant-favoured, and this should continue into 2H/2020. Tenants pursuing more favourable leasing terms would be largely accepted by most landlords, and landlords’ requirements on tenant’s profile were reduced relative the pre-epidemic time. From a tenant’s perspective, it is a good time to review their real estate strategies for office upgrade, relocation, expansion and real estate cost optimisation. This resulted in an increasing volume of market enquiries and transactions since March, when work and production resumed, as were the cases in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Foshan and Dongguan.

The total occupancy costs in the ten cities within the GBA decreased during 1H/2020. With the increasing challenges from COVID-19, many landlords hoped to stabilise the market digestion through a variety of incentive offerings, including but not limited to, longer rent-free periods, further rental cuts and higher commission rates. Total occupancy costs in the GBA core cities like Hong Kong, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 2.3%, 3.2% and 3.4% HoH, respectively. On the other hand, leasing demand in other GBA key node cities remained relatively weak, and these markets were mostly dominated by individual landlords who were more susceptible to the impact of COVID-19. Therefore, the changes in the total occupancy costs in these cities appeared to be more notable. For example, Zhaoqing, as one of the key node cities with fragile demand, recorded the largest decline of total occupancy cost in the GBA of 9.7% HoH. Huizhou, benefitting from its proximity to Shenzhen and limited volume of future supply, recorded the smallest decrease of 0.3% HoH.

200

400

600

800

0

1,000

1H

2009 2011 201720142010 20162013 2019 20202012 20182015

1H 1H1H 1H 1H 1H1H 1H 1H 1H 1H2H 2H 2H2H 2H 2H 2H2H 2H 2H 2H

Economic Slump Intensified By COVID-19

Rents Tied Down Further By Oversupply

Landlords Lowered Rents In Exchange For Occupancy

The Market Remained Tenant-Favoured

Total Occupancy Cost, 1H/2009 - 1H/2020


RM

B p

er s

q m

per

mo

nth

Zhaoqing

Guangzhou

Foshan

Shenzhen

Jiangmen

DongguanZhongshan

Zhuhai

Hong Kong

Huizhou

10


Hong KongShenzhen

GuangzhouFoshan

DongguanZhuhai

JiangmenZhaoqing

ZhongshanHuizhou


MARKET CYCLE

Rental Market Cycle, 1H/2020

LATEUPSWING

LATEDOWNSWING

EARLYDOWNSWING

EARLYUPSWING


Eight out of ten GBA cities were in an early downswing in 1H/2020. Despite the postponements of projects in the pipeline, a plethora of new supply is expected in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Foshan and Zhuhai in 2H/2020, leading to persistent oversupply situations in the cities. In addition, the lingering impact of COVID-19 should decelerate the leasing demand growth, causing the average rents of those cities to decrease.

Due to the less-developed tertiary industry and the negative impact of COVID-19, leasing demand from the professional services, education and tourism sectors in Jiangmen and Zhaoqing is expected to remain fragile and slow to fully recover in 2H/2020. With this underlining condition, positive rental growth in both cities’ office markets is unlikely.

Zhongshan and Huizhou moved into the late downswing cycle, with COVID-19 being the major pulling factor. However, the two cities continued to benefit from the limited future supply, stable demand and the geographical advantage of proximity to Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

Early Downswing

Late Downswing

Zhuhai

JiangmenHuizhou

Guangzhou

Zhongshan


COVID-19 has had a significant impact on the development of the Chinese and global economies during 1H/2020. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), China’s GDP growth is forecast to decelerate to 1% YoY in 2020, but China remains the only major economy achieving positive economic growth. In addition, the economic recovery in China is expected to take the lead across the world in 2021. The GBA, as one of the national strategic priorities in China, to be appeared resilient during the recovery in 1H/2020. However, the challenges on its tertiary industry last, especially in the tourism, brick-and-mortar retail and international trade sectors. Against this backdrop, it is inevitable to see softening leasing demand and rental declines in the market. Nevertheless, as the country is forging ahead in its economic recovery, a positive outlook for the economic performance in the GBA and its office property market is expected.

As many landlords in the GBA had to postpone their project completions due to COVID-19 during 1H/2020, supply peaks in most cities were delayed to 2021 or 2022. In addition, many enterprises became more cautious towards their corporate real estate strategies and prolonged their decision-making processes, weakening the leasing demand amidst the economic disruption. Collectively, the disequilibrium of the supply and demand in the GBA office property market should continue in the next three to five years.

The leasing demand from the TMT, financial industry, healthcare industries stayed active in 1H/2020, serving as one of the breakthrough points for leasing demand growth. The market witnessed increases in leasing enquiries and activities in some GBA cities, such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou. COVID-19 has prompted burgeoning opportunities of new business models and industries, as exemplified by the cases of online services (including cloud office services, online learning and e-commerce), healthcare, smart city platforms, artificial intelligence and

others. Additionally, the promulgation of the Opinions on Financial Support for the Development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area on 14th May, and the launch of a cross-border wealth management pilot scheme called ‘Wealth Management Connect’ on 29th June, which is only effective in the GBA, should bring about strong prospects for the financial industry and support office leasing demand in the GBA in the future.

Amidst the complicated and unpredictable economic environment, the substantial gap in total occupancy costs between Hong Kong and the mainland cities remained noticeable. Most landlords were more flexible in leasing incentives, offering longer rent-free periods, further rental cuts and higher commission rates, in a bid to stabilise the market digestion. In addition, some landlords chose to offer sales price concessions to facilitate asset disposition and improve their liquidity. The downward trend in both rents and prices in the GBA office property market continued with intensifying leasing competition during 1H/2020.

Carlby Xie 谢靖宇Head of Research, Southern China

市场研究部主管，华南区

Tel: 86 20 3665 4874

E-mail: [email protected]

Sam Lai 黎青山Head of Commercial, Southern China

商业楼宇部主管, 华南区

Tel: 86 20 3665 4830



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Savills – Xi’an第一太平戴维斯西安Dave Law 罗元均General Manager, Savills Xi’an

第一太平戴维斯西安公司总经理Tel: 86 29 8187 2288


Subject to contract: This document is prepared by Savills for information only. Whilst reasonable care has been exercised in preparing this document, it is subject to change and these particulars do not constitute, nor constitute part of, an offer or contract; interested parties should not rely on the statements or representations of fact but must satisfy themselves by inspection or otherwise as to the accuracy. No person in the employment of the agent or agent’s principal has any authority to make any representations or warranties whatsoever in relation to these particulars and Savills cannot be held responsible for any liability whatsoever or for any loss howsoever arising from or reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents in this document © Savills Property Services China Company Limited. 2020.

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China Office - Jul 2020 The Greater Bay Area

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