China in 2050
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A strategic foresight presentation on the impact of social capital on the future of China\'s economic sustainability
Transcript of China in 2050
The Rise of China"China is poised to
have more impact on the world over the next 20 years than any other country"
– National Intelligence Council
World’s second largest economy
Leading military powerLargest importer of natural
resources
“Giant with feet of clay” - Carol Lee Hamrin
A low-trust authoritarian culture
A weak philanthropic tradition
Pervasive moral corrosion
Widespread social tensions
Spiritual/ideological contention Daniel 2: 31-45
Social Capital Deficit
Source: International Futures Model
What is Social Capital?A “cultural component of modern
societies”An “informal norm that promotes
cooperation” among groupsA contributor to “efficient
functioning of modern economies”A catalyst for trust, reciprocity, and
social networkingSource: Fukuyama. Social Capital and Civil Society. October
1999.
Dr. Francis Fukuyama
Johns Hopkins University
Forecast Baseline
China compared to World
China compared to India
Economic ForecastEconomic Forecast
Forecast BaselineWorld Leadership ForecastWorld Leadership Forecast
Forecast Baseline
China compared to World
China compared to India
Governance ForecastGovernance Forecast
Forecast Scenarios
Markets first – presumes globalization, rapid technological innovation and economic growth
Security first – economic disparities and environmental pressures generate conflict
Policy first – governments in-adequately address environ-mental and social issues
Sustainability first –a new paradigm emerges with transforming societal values
World ScenariosWorld Scenarios
Forecast ScenariosWorld Scenarios GraphWorld Scenarios Graph
Forecast ScenariosGovernance Improvement Governance Improvement
ScenarioScenario
Forecast ScenariosGovernance Improvement Governance Improvement
ScenarioScenario
Forecast ScenariosAdditional Additional benefits of benefits of Governance Governance Improvement Improvement ScenarioScenario
Conclusion“Can China maintain social stability in the face of what appear to be unprecedented levels of rural-to-urban migration?
...And if China falters, what effect will its instability have on the rest of the world.?”
• How can organizations identify trends and emerging issues on their horizon that will likely shape their strategy?
• How do strategic leadership teams combine anticipatory management with traditional management processes?
• How can leaders think about the future, change and uncertainties in a way that refocuses organizational strategy?
Strategic foresight attempts to answer questions such as:
To learn more about the benefits strategic foresight may provide you and your
organization, contact:
Steve BrimmerSteve [email protected]
