1

1. Outline

1.  Dialogue inter WGIII   Exploring the impact of climate change on mitigation

capacity   Exploring the equity, efficiency, political acceptability

space

2.  Dialogue with WGII   Alternative storylines that deliver the same level of

radiative forcing

  Goal: reduce the dimensionality of the problem

2

2. WITCH and the RCPs

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

TOTA

L  RA

DIAT

IVE  FO

RCING  (W

/m2)

MESSAGE  -­‐ RCP  8.5

AIM  -­‐ RCP  6.0

MiniCAM  -­‐ RCP  4.5

IMAGE  -­‐ RCP3-­‐PD  (2.6)

BaU Scenario

3

3. Impacts on mitigation capacity

1.  Climate change feedback on the economy   Standard damage function   Extensive work to have a new generation impact model

(CLI-EMA, GLOBAL-IQ, YALE-FEEM Partnership)   Cost-benefit for fine-tuning of climate policy

2.  Adaptation and Mitigation   Endogenous adaptative capacity

3.  Impact of climate change on mitigation capacity

4

4. Damage function - global  

-9.00

-8.00

-7.00

-6.00

-5.00

-4.00

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00

Global mean temperature (°C) above pre-industrial level

Perc

enta

ge C

hang

e of

Gro

ss W

orld

Pr

oduc

t

UNFCCC

WITCH LowDamage

WITCH HighDamage

MERGE

5

5. Damage function - regional Regional Damage Functions

-8.00

-7.00

-6.00

-5.00

-4.00

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100

Time horizon

Perc

enta

ge lo

ss in

GDP

EASIALACACHINASASIASSAMENATECAJAZKOSAUNEWEUROOLDEUROUSA

+ 2.5ºC - WITCH high damage function

6

6. Mitigation capacity Economic and social development

high

low

low high medium Climate change impacts

Mitigation capacity

7

7. New impact model

  Joint work with Robert Mendelsohn at Yale University

  Regional impacts on most sensitive sectors integrated into a single framework

  Compatible with most IAMs

8

8. Impact as % of US land value

  SRES B1 - 1.1-2.9 ºC in 2100

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

BCM2 CGHR FGOALS GFCM20 GFCM21 GIAOM GIER HADCM3 INCM3 IPCM4 MIHR MIMR MPEH5 MRCGCM NCCCSM

2020 2055 2090

9

9. Adaptive capacity in WITCH

10

10. Equity-efficiency

Robustness of incentives   Coalitions' stability

Analysis of second-best policy tools

  Sub-regional markets (or non uniform carbon pricing) vs domestic carbon taxes or global carbon markets

Are the scenarios that we draw plausible from a climate policy

point of view?

11

11. Potential for cost-benefit analysis

S1S2

S3

S5

S6S7

S8

S9

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%

1.502.002.503.003.50

GDP  losses  in  NPV

 (at  5

%  d.r.)

Temperature  rise  in  2100  (C)no  CCS reference negative  emissions

S4

Extremely important for the analysis of coalition stability

12

12. Mitigation capacity Economic and social development

high

low

low high medium Climate change impacts

Coalition stability

13

13. Implications of carbon taxes

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

tCO

2-eq

per

cap

ita

China India Sasia Easia Oecd World

2050 2a

2050 1a

2005 1a

2050 2b

2050 2c

2050 3a

2050 3b

14

14. A three-dimensional matrix Equity

high

low

low high medium

Efficiency

Political acceptability (coalition stability)

15

15. Dialogue with WGII community

  The "political feasibility" filter would restrict very much the group of relevant SSPs

  Focus on SSPs that create a significant variation of a few key variables (GDP, level and distribution, technological progress…) for any (policy relevant) level of radiative forcing

16

16. The Rose Project Scenarios developed in the ROSE project => compare effects of

different assumptions on 1.  Fossil fuel resources (oil, gas, coal) 2.  GDP growth and convergence 3.  Population growth

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

EJ

Primary  energy

G10M_MMM

G8S_MMM

G14S_HP_MMM

G12F_MMM

G11FSC_MMM

17

17. Alternative scenarios - Pashmina

EU FP7 PASHMINA Project - http://www.pashmina-project.eu/   Scenario 1: Growing beyond limits: featuring the

strengthening of corporate capitalism   Scenario 2: Growing within limits: a low-carbon economy

and adequate biodiversity protection can be achieved with currently identifiable technologies

  Scenario 3: New welfare / beyond GDP: new techno-economic and social paradigm emerges

  Scenario 4: Turbulent decline: failure to manage common goods, economic, societal and environmental collapse

18

18. Alternative scenarios

19

19. Final thoughts

1.  It is possible to reduce the dimensionality problem by introducing the "policy feasibility" dimension

2.  Impact community might be interested in a limited number of variables compatible with a given level of temperature

3.  Many scenarios with about 3.7w/sqm, relatively new runs with 4.5w/sqm

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