Chesapeake Bay TMDL

May 13, 20092009 NPS/TMDL/WQM States Meeting

Martinsburg, West Virginia

Jennifer SincockU.S. EPA Region 3

Water Protection Division

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Portrait of an Ecosystem

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Where are the Bay WQ Impacts?

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Pollutant Sources to the Bay

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-61

-74

-85

91

67

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Air Nitrogen

Urban/Suburban Sediment

Urban/Suburban Phosphorus

Urban/Suburban Nitrogen

Wastewater Phosphorus

Wastewater Nitrogen

Agriculture Sediment

Agriculture Phosphorus

Agriculture Nitrogen

Data and Methods: www.chesapeakebay.net/status_reducingpollution.aspx

Note: Some jurisdictions may be underreporting existing stormwater management practices.

How are we doing?

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The science behind the TMDLs

Watershed Model

Bay Model

Land UseChange Model

Airshed Model

CriteriaAssessmentProcedures

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CFD Curve

Area of Criteria Exceedence

Area of AllowableCriteria

Exceedence

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What’s the Scope of the Bay TMDL?• TMDL will establish

loads for all Bay states

• Nutrients, sediments

• Oxygen, clarity/Bay grasses, algae

• All impaired tidal water segments

• All sources– Point source control thru NPDES

– NPS implementation thru 319 funding

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Not one bay TMDL but

(as many as)92 segment TMDLs

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Impaired Segment TMDLs• EPA Regulations require TMDLs for each

impaired Water Quality Limited Segment

TMDLSD = ∑ WLASD + ∑ LASD + MOS

TMDLSD = Segment Drainage TMDL

WLASD = WLA from Segment Drainage

LASD = LA from Segment DrainageMOS = Margin of Safety (implicit)

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Segment Drainages for Impaired Segment TMDLs

Potomac Tidal Fresh (POTTF)

Potomac Oligohaline (POTOH)

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Wasteload Allocation

For Tidal Fresh Segments:

WLASD = ∑ individual WLAs (tidal state) + Gross WLA (nontidal state)

Other Segments:

WLASD = ∑ individual WLAs (tidal state)

• Determined by each state’s Implementation Plan development process and could include:

POTW Industrial StormwaterMS4s Non-significant permits Others?

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Load AllocationFor Tidal Fresh Segments:

LASD = Source Sector LAs (tidal state) + Gross LA (nontidal state)

Other Segments:

LASD = Source Sector LAs (tidal state)

• Source Sector LAs would be based on each state’s Implementation Plan development process and could include:

Agriculture ForestOther NPS Urban/Res/RoadAtmospheric Others?

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Bay Cap

• The Bay Cap will be set for each pollutant (N, P, and sediment) to meet water quality standards at critical conditions (i.e. worst case scenarios) for the entire Bay as well as localized impairments.

Bay Cap = ∑ Bay Impaired Segment TMDLs + ∑ Bay Unimpaired Segment Loads

• (i.e., The Bay Cap based on 2003 Allocations would be 175 MPY for N and 12.8 MPY for P)

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Basin-jurisdiction Caps

Maryland

Delaware

New York

District of Columbia

West Virginia

Pennsylvania

Virginia

Preliminary Draft Allocations July/August 2009

Iterative Draft Allocations

TMDL Allocations

December 2010

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Building the Chesapeake Bay Nutrient TMDLs

Determine the Bay cap load

Allocate the Bay cap load

to basin-jurisdictions

Sub-allocate the basin-jurisdiction

loads to sources in state implementation plans

Determine which source loads

go into each impaired segment

Establish the TMDL for each impaired segment

A TMDL is not enough!

Set BiennialMilestonesfor closing identified program gaps

Contingencies by States if milestones fall short

Identify ProgramGaps between needed controls and existing program

capacity

Monitor Effectiveness to assess implementation actions

EmployConsequences by EPA if appropriate progress is not being made

EstablishChesapeakeBay TMDL:•Set total nutrient and sediment caps•Wasteload and load allocations

ReviseImplementation plansIdentifying the nutrient and sediment controls needed to meet the Basin caps

Evaluate Program capacity (programmatic, funding, technical) to fully implement tributary strategies

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Consequences/Contingencies

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How does it all fit?System/Process Question Document

Accounting What loads to achieve?

Bay Cap load, J-B cap loads, segment TMDLs

Planning What controls are needed (e.g. BMP’s)

State Implementation Plans

Implementation What is the program delivery system?

2 year commitments

Bay Cap Load

Susquehanna

West Shore Ches.

MD-DEEastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappa-hannock

York

James

WV MD VA DC PA

2009-2011

2011-2013

2013-2015

2015-2017

2019-2011

2009-2011

2011-2013

2013-2015

2015-2017

2019-2011

2009-2011

2011-2013

2013-2015

2015-2017

2019-2011

2009-2011

2011-2013

2013-2015

2015-2017

2019-2011

2009-2011

2011-2013

2013-2015

2015-2017

2019-2011

Basin-jurisdiction allocations/State Implementation Plans

2 year commitments

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What we know?• We need a bigger, better toolbox to reduce nutrients

and sediments• The tributary strategies level of effort is not enough

to restore the bay• The existing tributary

strategies result in higher

loadings than previously

thought.

-new hydrology

-new BMP efficiencies

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What we need to know…but don’t know yet

• Sediment allocation process

• How much will it cost?• What are the best

enhancements to the existing nutrient and sediment control toolbox?

• Who pays?

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Building a bigger toolbox

Sources:• Agriculture• Air• Developed and

developing lands• Wastewater

Tools:• Public funding• Cap and trade• Tax incentives• Marketing program• Corporate Stewardship• Regulation• Other?

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Upcoming Deliverables from EPA

• Reasonable Assurance and Implementation Guidance– Staged Implementation

• Consequences if Milestones are not met

• Bay TMDL 101 public meetings

• Preliminary Draft Bay Cap and Basin-Jurisdiction Allocations

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Bay TMDL Outreach

• Bay TMDL 101 public meetings (Summer 2009)

• Meetings with Stakeholders and Local Governments (ongoing)

• “A River Runs To It” (Summer 2009)– Visits throughout watershed to highlight best

practices and present funds for projects

• EPA Bay TMDL Website (coming soon)

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What’s on the road ahead?• State Implementation Plan Development

(May 2009 – May 2010)• TMDL 101 public meetings (June – Sept.

2009) • Preliminary Draft Bay Cap & Basin-

Jurisdiction Allocations (July/Aug. 2009)• Draft TMDL Public Notice/Public Meetings

(June – Sept. 2010)• Final TMDL Established (December 2010)• Consent Decree deadline (May 1, 2011)

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Coming Attractions

• Preliminary Draft Chesapeake Bay Cap

• Preliminary Draft Basin-Jurisdiction Allocations

• Two-year Milestones

• Commitment Challenge Dates

• Independent Evaluate

• Public Messages

• Communication Challenges

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Executive Council MeetingMay 12, 2009

• Announce 2-year milestones

• Set Restoration End Date

• Executive Order

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Milestones Guidelines

• Will focus strictly on Bay water quality restoration goal

• Jurisdiction-specific milestone outcomes can be rolled up into a single, basin-wide summary

• Milestone outcomes include: pounds reduced, acres implemented, adoption of new regulations, legislation, policies

• Account for implementation actions of all partners

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Milestone Attributes

• First 2-year milestones will be from mid-2009 through end of 2011

• Confirming we intend to develop milestones which are ‘stretch goals but still attainable’

• Accelerates past rates of implementation

• Milestones could include commitments to seek new regulations, enactment of new legislation/policies

• Translate or relate actions and resources to Bay water quality endpoints

• Measurable, trackable, reportable and related to the end goal (cap load allocations)

• Consistency across the 7 jurisdictions

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Watershed-wide 2011 Milestones

• Nitrogen– Additional 6.9 million pounds nitrogen

reduced– 77% increase over previous rate of reduction

• Phosphorus– Additional 463,948 pounds phosphorus

reduced– 79% increase over previous rate of reduction

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A New Restoration End Date

“The date by which all the actions required to achieve the jurisdiction-specific and basinwide cap load allocations have been fully implemented on the ground”

“No Later Than” 2025

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Executive Order Signed May 12, 2009

• Chesapeake Bay declared a national treasure• Directed Federal Agencies to make restoration a

greater priority with the following key provisions:– Establishing a Bay Federal Leadership Committee– Directing EPA to use its CWA authorities to the maximum

extent possible– Improving agricultural conservation practices and

focusing financial support– Reducing water pollution from federal lands and facilities– Developing an interagency Chesapeake Bay Climate

Change Strategy– Expanding public access to the Bay via Fed. property– Strengthening scientific support for decision-making

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Funding• American Recovery and Reinvestment Act

– Provides hundreds of millions of dollars for projects that advance the cleanup of the Chesapeake Bay

– Projects range from WWTP upgrades to green infrastructure projects

• Farm Bill– Additional $188 million over next four years for

agricultural conservation projects to reduce pollution flowing into the Bay

– Support nutrient management, cover crops, crop residue management, vegetative buffers, and other agricultural conservation practices

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Accountability

• Two-year Milestones and Contingencies

• Chesapeake TMDL and Consequences

• Independent Evaluator

• Bay Barometer

• Adaptive Management– Monitor progress and adjust course if

necessary

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Further Information

• Chesapeake Bay Program Water Quality Steering Committee website

http://www.chesapeakebay.net/committee_wqsc_info.aspx?menuitem=16618

• EPA Region 3 Contacts– Water Protection Division

• Bob Koroncai (koroncai.robert@epa.gov)• Jennifer Sincock (sincock.jennifer@epa.gov)

– Chesapeake Bay Program• Rich Batiuk (batiuk.richard@epa.gov)

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EPA’s Draft Bay TMDL Framework• States’ existing Chesapeake Bay WQS should

not be relaxed based on feasibility• Bay TMDLs must contain the LAs and WLAs

necessary to achieve the states’ existing Chesapeake Bay WQS

• State Implementation Plans will be written to achieve the loadings assigned in the Bay TMDLs – Staged implementation is a possible option

• Wastewater discharge load requirements will continue to be set at the discretion of states

• An affordability assessment will be completed