CHAPTER II ESTIMATION OF LIFE EXPECTANCY AT...

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CHAPTER - II

ESTIMATION OF LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH FOR THE NORTH

EASTERN STATES OF INDIA (2001-2005)

2.1 Introduction:

No element of human welfare is as highly valued as length of life itself in the

optimal state of health. Life expectancy at birth is considered as an important indicator to

describe the level of mortality in a population. It is one of the most preferred indicators in

demographic and health analysis which reflects the average number of years a new born

baby is expected to survive under the current schedule of mortality. It is a proxy measure

for several dimensions like good health, education, adequate nutrition and other valued

achievements. Life expectancy at birth is an excellent indicator for comparing the mortality

of two or more populations and also used in calculating human development index. Hence,

in formulating the National/Sub-national Human development reports the estimates of life

expectancy at birth are largely required.

Life expectancy at birth, perhaps the most often cited summary indicator of

population health, is calculated by applying the registered number of deaths and age wise

population (Pamuk et. al., 2004). However, in small subpopulations where absolute

number of registered death is not sufficient, it is difficult to estimate the life expectancies

from the available age-specific mortality data. In such a situation, the investigation into the

mortality experience may be made through some indirect demographic techniques.

In India, like the other developing countries, the vital registration system is not

satisfactory, at least for the smaller states. Due to the poor civil registration data, the usual

way of estimating life expectancy at birth from the age specific deaths cannot be adopted

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(Malaker, 1986; Bhat, 1987). Though organisation like Sample Registration System

periodically publishes the life expectancy at birth in the form of life table for bigger states;

for smaller states no such figures are available. Due to the above constraints the regression

method (details of which is presented in Chapter – I) may be a suitable option for

estimating the life expectancy at birth at the sub national level in India (Pathak and Sing,

1992). In this chapter it is an attempt to estimate life expectancy at birth for smaller north

eastern states of India.

The north eastern part of India is one of the most ethnically and linguistically

diverse regions located in the north eastern corner of India and occupies distinctive place

due to its socio- cultural features. It lies, geographically between 22° and 29° North

latitude, and 89°. 46' and 97°.5' East longitude and covers an area of 26,2179 sq.km

(Census of India, 2001). The region is in a strategically vulnerable geographical situation

and surrounded by countries like China, and Myanmar on the east and Bangladesh on the

north- south. The region occupies about 7 percent landmass of India. The 39 million

people of Northeast India constitute only about 3.8 per cent of the total population of the

country (Census of India, 200). Topographically the region is a mixture of hills and plains,

with wide bio-diversities, and varied climatic conditions. Politically, the region comprises

currently of eight states; Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram,

Nagaland, Sikkim and Tripura.

From times immemorial, the north eastern part of India has been the meeting point

of many communities, faiths and cultures. The society of Meghalaya is matrilineal in

character, which distinguishes them from other societies of the region. People of this

region have different religions with majority are Hindus followed by Muslim and

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Christian. Christianity is the dominant religion in three states viz., Mizoram (85.73%),

Meghalaya (70.3%) and Nagaland (90.02%) (Census of India, 2001). The region has a high

concentration of tribal population. The state of Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Mizoram

and Nagaland are mostly inhabited by a number of native tribes. The entire land is a

mixture of disparate races, civilizations, culture and languages. However, the geography,

history and tradition, have made the whole region to be considered as a single entity. The

prominent languages of the region are Assamese, Bengali, Manipuri, Khasi, Mizo,

Nagamese, Nepali, Kakborok, Arunachali, English etc. Though the North Eastern states are

economically not advanced as compared to the rest of the country, the region has enjoyed

healthy literacy rate with Mizoram occupying second place in national ranking (Census of

India, 2001) .

2.2 Objectives:

In this chapter an attempt has been made

· To estimate the life expectancy at birth by sex (males, females) and residence

(rural, urban) for the states of Nagaland along with Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur,

Meghalaya, Mizoram, Sikkim and Tripura for the period 2001-05 by regression

technique proposed by Swanson (1989).

2.3 Materials and Methods:

As stated earlier the regression method is used to estimate the life expectancy at

birth, which requires only two data elements: the crude death rate (CDR) and the

proportion of the population aged 65 years and above [P(65+)] (Swanson, 1989). The

regression model underlying the life expectancy estimates is obtained by using state level

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data for 16 bigger states of India (2001-05). The life expectancy at birth ( 00e ) figures are

taken from Sample Registration System (SRS) based Abridged Life Table 2001-05, India

(Registrar General of India, 2006). The crude death rates (CDR) are the five year average

value computed from SRS Bulletin for the period 2001 to 2005 (Registrar General of India,

2002-2006). The percentage of population aged 65 years and above [P(65+)] is obtained

from population census of India (2001) (Census of India, 2001) and adjusted for the year

2003. The SRS based estimates are considered as a reliable estimate of birth rate, death

rate and other fertility and mortality indicators at the national and sub-national level of

India (Bhat et. al., 1984). For the north eastern states, SRS is operational in 855 (493 rural

and 362 urban) sample units and it covers about 6.5 lakhs population out of total

population of 389.86 lakhs. The proportion of population covered and the number of

sample units in the SRS survey to the total population of the North Eastern states are quite

high compared to the other states. As such the sample size which is used to enumerate the

various death rates can be considered as a representative sample of the population. Also the

SRS is a combination of continuous enumeration of birth and deaths and independent

survey conducted every six months which leads to an unduplicated count of birth and

deaths.

As the percentage of population aged 65 years and above increases exponentially as

a function of relative mortality, the relationship of P(65+) with 00e is approximately

logarithmic (Swanson et. al., 1977). In deriving the estimates, it is found that CDR and

ln[p(65+)] are highly correlated with 00e (Table -2.1). Accordingly two linear regression

equations (males and females) have been attempted by taking life expectancy at birth as

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dependent variable and CDR and ln[P(65+)] as independent variable. As it is observed

from the data that there is no strong relationship between CDR and ln[P(65+)] (Table 2.1),

the model is assume to be free from multicollinearity [Hair et.al. (1987)]. The linearity

assumption is checked by examining the plot of residuals (Figure 2.1), from which we

notice that there is no clear curvilinear patterns which rules out possibility that certain

nonlinear transformation might provide a better fit.

The regression equations for estimating life expectancy at birth are

00e (Male) = b0 + b1*(CDR)Male + b2*ln[p(65+)]Male .... (2.1)

00e (Female) = b0 + b1*(CDR)Female + b2*ln[p(65+)]Female .... (2.2)

Where ‘b0’ ‘b1’ and ‘b2’ are the regression coefficients.

2.4 Observation and Results:

The estimates of life expectancy at birth for the smaller north eastern states of India

is based on the following regression equations

00e (Male) = 62.829 - 2.198*CDR + 11.783*ln[P(65+)], R

2 = 0.920, ...(2.3)

00e (Female) = 63.286 – 2.329*CDR + 10.637*ln[P(65+)], R

2 = 0.911, ...(2.4)

The model shows a strong linear fit with R2 value 0.920 (0.911) for male (female)

(Table 2.2). This means 92% (91%) of the variance has been accounted for in our model.

Therefore, we can assume that our data set is sufficient for creating a regression model for

estimating life expectancy at birth for the states of India. Comparing the estimated 00e for

the bigger states of India (Table 2.3 and Table 2.4) with the SRS 2001-05 values we found

that the mean error is 0.02(0.03) years and the mean absolute error is 0.81(1.22) years for

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male (female). Further nine (seven) values are overestimated and seven (nine) values are

underestimated for male (female).

From the Tables 2.5(a) and 2.5(b), it is observed that during 2001-05 the life

expectancy at birth for males (females) varies from 57.03 (58.09) for Meghalaya to the

maximum of 68.92 (71.12) for Manipur. A gap of almost twelve point is noticed within an

area of 26,2179 sq. km. Females has recorded comparatively higher life expectancy at birth

than those of males. Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim are the only north eastern states, where

males have a higher life expectancy at birth than the females. The maximum gap in the life

expectancy at birth for male and female is observed for the state of Mizoram (3.32 years).

For the state of Nagaland, males and females do not differ much while considering life

expectancy at birth. The state has registered the smallest gap (0.08 years) of life

expectancy at birth for males and females. Assam, which is the gateway of the North

Eastern states and having better infrastructure facilities with a majority of non tribal

population shows a very low 00e for males (58.30) as well as females (59.00) (SRS, 2001-

05). Amongst all the states of India, Kerala has recorded the highest life expectancy at

birth for both sexes followed by Manipur. The lowest life expectancy at birth has been

observed for the state of Meghalaya followed by Assam. Majority of the north eastern

states have life expectancy at birth higher than the national average. The only exceptions

are the state of Meghalaya and Assam, where life expectancy at birth is below the national

average (62.3 years). For females, three out of eight north eastern states have recorded

lower life expectancy at birth compared to the national average (63.9 years). The

corresponding states are Meghalaya, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.

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It is interesting to note that, the states (viz., Manipur and Tripura) situated in the

remotest part of the country are securing better position with respect to life expectancy at

birth. This may be probably due to the fact that as they are situated far from the

mainstream of the country, they can maintain their tradition, culture and food habit which

may have a positive impact on the longevity of the people of these states.

Table 2.6(a) and Table 2.6(b) show the life expectancy at birth for urban population

of north eastern states for both sex males and females. Due to unavailability of reliable

input data, urban life expectancy at birth for Arunachal Pradesh could not been estimated.

All the north eastern states show a higher female life expectancy compared to its male

counterpart. Manipur stands at the top of the list with male (female) life expectancy at birth

of 69.51 (72.59) years. The second position is occupied by Mizoram with male (female)

life expectancy of 67.02 (71.47). It is observed that, Meghalaya has the maximum gap in

the life expectancy at birth for males and females (6.39 years). The lowest sex difference

of life expectancy has been observed for the state of Nagaland (0.80 years).

The rural life expectancies at birth for all the north eastern states are presented in

Table 2.7(a) and Table 2.7(b). Unlike urban areas, four out of eight north eastern states

show a higher males life expectancy at birth than females. Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya,

Nagaland and Sikkim are the states where male has higher life expectancy at birth.

Manipur continues to be at the top position for both sexes followed by Nagaland for males

and Tripura for females. Tripura has the highest gap in life expectancy at birth for males

and females.

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2.5 Tables and Figures:

Table –2.1: Correlation betweenc, CDR and ln[P(65+)].

00e P(65+) CDR

00e 1 0.814 -0.829

ln[P(65+)] 0.814 1 -0.587

CDR -0.829 -0.587 1

Table – 2.2: Characteristics of the Regression Model for Estimating e00.

Variable Regression coefficient

Male Female

Constant 62.829 63.286

CDR -2.198 -2.329

ln[p(65+)] 11.783 10.637

R2

0.920 0.911

Figure – 2.1: Residual by Predicted Plot.

life expectancy at birth predicted

80706050

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

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Table – 2.3: Estimated Life Expectancy at Birth (Males) 2001-05.

State

e00 (SRS)

(2001-05)

CDR

(2001-05)

ln[P(65+)]

(2003)

e00 (Estimate)

(Males)

Andhra Pradesh 62.70 8.43 1.48 61.75

Assam 58.30 9.57 1.33 57.45

Bihar 62.00 8.12 1.45 62.05

Gujarat 62.80 7.86 1.35 61.40

Haryana 65.60 7.58 1.59 64.87

Himachal Pradesh 66.30 7.92 1.80 66.63

Karnataka 63.40 7.97 1.51 63.13

Kerala 71.30 7.45 1.91 68.93

Madhya Pradesh 57.80 9.69 1.45 58.58

Maharashtra 65.80 7.36 1.75 67.27

Orissa 59.20 10.42 1.68 59.67

Punjab 68.10 7.31 1.84 68.38

Rajasthan 61.20 7.73 1.40 62.28

Tamil Nadu 64.80 8.15 1.73 65.35

Uttar Pradesh 60.10 9.36 1.51 59.99

West Bengal 63.90 7.07 1.52 65.17

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Table – 2.4: Estimated Life Expectancy at Birth (Females) 2001-05.

State

e00 (SRS)

(2001-05)

CDR

(2001-05)

ln[P(65+)]

(2003)

e00 (Estimate)

(Females)

Andhra Pradesh 65.20 6.79 1.62 64.70

Assam 59.00 8.72 1.35 57.29

Bihar 60.10 8.02 1.42 59.76

Gujarat 65.00 6.76 1.62 64.80

Haryana 66.00 6.31 1.67 66.38

Himachal Pradesh 67.10 5.97 1.90 69.56

Karnataka 66.90 6.65 1.70 65.91

Kerala 76.30 5.30 2.12 73.51

Madhya Pradesh 57.50 9.26 1.60 58.78

Maharashtra 68.10 6.37 1.94 69.06

Orissa 59.20 9.12 1.73 60.40

Punjab 70.10 6.22 1.92 69.24

Rajasthan 62.20 6.96 1.61 64.18

Tamil Nadu 67.10 6.87 1.78 66.19

Uttar Pradesh 59.30 9.20 1.50 57.83

West Bengal 65.50 5.99 1.66 66.98

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Table – 2.5(a): Estimated Life Expectancy at Birth for the North Eastern States of

India, (Males) 2001-05.

State

CDR

(Males)

ln[P(65+)]

(Males)

e00 (Estimate)

(Males)

Arunachal Pradesh 5.01 1.02 63.87

Assam 9.57 1.33 58.30#

Manipur 5.38 1.52 68.92

Meghalaya 8.30 1.06 57.03

Mizoram 5.89 1.31 65.37

Nagaland 4.30 1.10 66.34

Sikkim 5.72 1.36 66.23

Tripura 6.42 1.54 66.92

# 00e for Assam is taken from Sample Registration System.

Table – 2.5(b): Estimated Life Expectancy at Birth for the North Eastern States of

India, (Females) 2001-05.

State

CDR

(Females)

ln[P(65+)]

(Females)

e00 (Estimate)

(Females)


Assam 8.72 1.35 59.00#

Manipur 3.76 1.56 71.12

Meghalaya 7.21 1.09 58.09

Mizoram 3.95 1.37 68.69

Nagaland 3.20 1.00 66.42

Sikkim 4.35 1.21 66.02

Tripura 4.77 1.63 69.54


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India, (Urban, Males) 2001-05

State

CDR

(Males)

ln[P(65+)]

(Males)

e00 (Estimate)

(Males)

Arunachal Pradesh 2.74 N.A. N.A.

Assam 6.73 1.31 66.90 #

Manipur 5.78 1.65 69.51

Meghalaya 6.61 0.97 59.74

Mizoram 4.91 1.27 67.02

Nagaland 2.93 0.72 64.90

Sikkim 5.21 0.95 62.54

Tripura 6.73 1.57 66.57

Source: Regression equation – (2.3) is applied with CDR and P(65+) for urban, males.


India, (Urban, Females) 2001-05

State

CDR

(Female)

ln[P(65+)]

(Female)

e00 (Estimate)

(Female)

Arunachal Pradesh 2.49 N.A. N.A.

Assam 5.01 1.38 68.00#

Manipur 3.68 1.68 72.59

Meghalaya 4.21 1.19 66.13

Mizoram 2.78 1.38 71.47

Nagaland 2.01 0.67 65.70

Sikkim 2.49 0.99 68.00

Tripura 5.09 0.79 70.48


Source: Regression equation – (2.4) is applied with CDR and P(65+) for urban females.

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India, (Rural, Males) 2001-05.

State

CDR

(Males)

ln[P(65+)]

(Males)

e00 (Estimate)

(Males)


Assam 9.99 1.33 57.50 #

Manipur 5.19 1.48 68.86

Meghalaya 8.65 1.06 56.34

Mizoram 6.65 1.36 64.20

Nagaland 4.70 1.27 67.46

Sikkim 5.69 1.35 66.26

Tripura 6.30 1.54 67.14

Source: Regression equation – (2.3) is applied with CDR and P(65+) for rural, males.


India, (Rural, Females) 2001-05.

State

CDR

(Females)

ln[P(65+)]

(Females)

e00 (Estimate)

(Females)


Assam 8.91 1.34 58.10#

Manipur 3.76 1.48 70.31

Meghalaya 7.98 1.06 56.01

Mizoram 5.07 1.37 66.02

Nagaland 3.29 1.07 67.04

Sikkim 4.50 1.24 65.96

Tripura 4.74 1.68 70.10


Source: Regression equation – (2.4) is applied with CDR and P(65+) for rural, females.

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Figure – 2.2: Life Expectancy at Birth for the North Eastern States of India, 2001-05.

Figure – 2.3: Life Expectancy at Birth for the North Eastern States of India, (Urban)

2001-05.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

e00

Life expectancy at birth by sexMales Females

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Assam Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Sikkim Tripura

e00

Life expectancy at birth (Urban) by sex Males Females

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Figure – 2.4: Life Expectancy at Birth for the North Eastern States of India, (Rural)

2001-05.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

e00

Life expectancy at birth (Rural) by sex Males Females

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