Chapter 12 Charts: Predicting CurrenciesChapter 12 Charts: Predicting Currencies Yardeni Research,...

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Predicting the Markets: Chapter 12 Charts: Predicting Currencies Yardeni Research, Inc. February 18, 2021 Dr. Edward Yardeni Chief Investment Strategist Mali Quintana Senior Economist [email protected] Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box

Transcript of Chapter 12 Charts: Predicting CurrenciesChapter 12 Charts: Predicting Currencies Yardeni Research,...

Page 1: Chapter 12 Charts: Predicting CurrenciesChapter 12 Charts: Predicting Currencies Yardeni Research, Inc. October 1, 2020 Dr. Edward Yardeni Chief Investment Strategist Mali Quintana

Predicting the Markets:Chapter 12 Charts:

Predicting CurrenciesYardeni Research, Inc.

February 18, 2021

Dr. Edward YardeniChief Investment Strategist

Mali QuintanaSenior Economist

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Page 2: Chapter 12 Charts: Predicting CurrenciesChapter 12 Charts: Predicting Currencies Yardeni Research, Inc. October 1, 2020 Dr. Edward Yardeni Chief Investment Strategist Mali Quintana

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

February 18, 2021 / Chapter 12 Charts: Predicting Currencies www.yardeni.com

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Predicting Currencies 1-19

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-.8

-.6

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

-.8

-.6

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Dec

NET INFLOWS INTO EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS(cumulative flows since 2000, trillion dollars)

TotalInternational*Domestic

* Includes Global & International, Emerging Markets, and Regional Funds.Source: Investment Company Institute.

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Figure 1.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-300

-200

-100

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-100

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Dec

NET INFLOWS INTO EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS(cumulative flows since 2000, percent of total)

International*Domestic

* Includes Global & International, Emerging Markets, and Regional Funds.Source: Investment Company Institute.

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Figure 2.

Predicting Currencies

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52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.1

20.1

40.1

60.180.1

.1

20.1

40.1

60.180.1

Q3TOTAL VALUE OF US STOCKS(trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale)

US Equity Issues at Market Value

Total Ex Foreign Issues*Total

* Total excluding market value of holdings of foreign corporate equities, investment fund shares, and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs)by US residents.Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States.

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Figure 3.

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240

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15

20

25

0

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10

15

20

25

Q3

FOREIGN EQUITIES HELD BY US RESIDENTS(as percent of total market value of equities held by US residents)

Foreign EquitiesShare in US*

* Market value of holdings of foreign corporate equities, investment fund shares, and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) by US residentsas a percent of the market value of their total equity holdings.Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States.

yard

eni.c

om

Figure 4.

Predicting Currencies

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59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 233

153

303

453

6037539031053

3

153

303

453

603753903

1053

Q3CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS RECEIPTS FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD*(billion dollars, saar, ratio scale)

* Including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profitstax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 5.

59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 235

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55

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Q3

CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS RECEIPTS FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD*(as a percent of pre-tax corporate profits)

* Including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profitstax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 6.

Predicting Currencies

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73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 230

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FED’S TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEXES(daily)

Major*(3/73=100)Broad**(1/97=100)

* Countries included in the Advanced Foreign Economies (AFE) index: Australia, Canada, Euro Area, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, andthe United Kingdom.

** Countries included in the Broad Dollar Index: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Euro Area, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia,Israel, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, United Kingdom, and Vietnam.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

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Figure 7.

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02-18-2021 - 13:27:25

Figure 8.

Predicting Currencies

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96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.015

.020

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.030

.035

.015

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.025

.030

.035

2/18

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EMERGING MARKETS MSCI INDEX CURRENCY RATIO(US$ index / local currency index, daily)

Source: MSCI.

Figure 9.

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

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2/18

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Source: MSCI.

DEVELOPED WORLD EX-US MSCI INDEX CURRENCY RATIO(US$ index / local currency index, daily)

Figure 10.

Predicting Currencies

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68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2428

428

828

1228

1628

20282428

28

428

828

1228

1628

20282428

2/17GOLD PRICE*(dollars per troy ounce, ratio scale)

* Cash price. London gold bullion, PM Fix. Monthly from 1968 through 1974, then daily.Source: Wall Street Journal and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 11.

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2670

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270

370

470

570

670

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270

370

470

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670

CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100, ratio scale) 2/17

* Weekly from January 9, 1951 to May 26, 1981, then daily. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops,hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Commodity Research Bureau.

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Figure 12.

Predicting Currencies

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70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 843

8

13

18

23

28

33

38

4348

3

8

13

18

23

28

33

38

4348

WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE(dollars per barrel, ratio scale, monthly)

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 13.

47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25-8

-7

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Q4

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN NOMINAL GDP(as a percent of nominal GDP)

TotalEx Petroleum

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 14.

Predicting Currencies

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85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-3400

-3000

-2600

-2200

-1800

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1000

Jan

US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE(12-month sum, billion dollars)

Source: US Treasury Department.

yardeni.com

Figure 15.

68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.2

3.2

6.2

9.2

12.2

15.218.221.2

.2

3.2

6.2

9.2

12.2

15.218.221.2

JanUS TREASURY DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC*(trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale)

* Marketable interest-bearing bills, notes, and bonds.Source: US Treasury Department, Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States.

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Figure 16.

Predicting Currencies

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22200

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140

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105

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2/18

2/17

INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR(daily)

JP Morgan NominalBroad Effective Exchange Rate**(inverted scale)

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*(1967=100)

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,

Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan.

yardeni.com

Figure 17.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

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100

95

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70

2/18

INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR(daily)

JP Morgan NominalBroad Effective Exchange Rate*(inverted scale)

Brent Crude Oil Price(dollars per barrel)

* Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States.Source: JP Morgan and Haver Analytics.

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Figure 18.

Predicting Currencies

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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210

500

1000

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115

110

105

100

95

90

85

2/18

2/18EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX &TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR(daily)

Emerging MarketsMSCI Stock Price Index(in dollars)

JP Morgan NominalBroad Effective Exchange Rate*(inverted scale)

* Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States.Source: JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley Capital International.

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Figure 19.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225

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Jan

S&P 500 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: EARNINGS & MARKET-CAP SHARES(percent)

Capitalization Share (27.2)Earnings Share* (22.6)

* Using S&P 500 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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Figure 20.

Predicting Currencies

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225

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25

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Jan

FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P 500*

S&P 500 (22.6)S&P 500 Technology (27.2)

* S&P 500 stock price index divided by S&P 500 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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Figure 21.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.5

2.5

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NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES: ADVANCED & EMERGING ECONOMIES(trillion dollars, ratio scale)

International Reserves Held By:Advanced Economies*Emerging Economies

* Includes United States, Canada, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland,Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom.Source: IMF and Haver Analytics.

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Figure 22.

Predicting Currencies

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022200

300

400

500

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700

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

.9

.8

2/18

2/17

INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & CANADIAN DOLLAR(daily)

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*

Canada(C$/US$, inverted scale)

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 23.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022200

300

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500

600

700

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2.0

1.9

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INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR(daily)

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*

Australia(A$/US$, inverted scale)

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: Haver Analytics.

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Figure 24.

Predicting Currencies

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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-1000

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US INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS:CURRENT vs FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCES(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Account BalanceCurrent*Financial**

* US exports less imports of goods and services plus net income from abroad.** Net incurrence of liabilities less net acquisition of financial assets.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 25.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-300

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US INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS: STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 26.

Predicting Currencies

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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-700

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Jan

CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(billion dollars)

Merchandise Trade Surplus or Deficit(12-month sum)Non-Gold International Reserves(12-month change)

Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 27.

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-1300

-1200

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CHINA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS*(billion dollars)

* 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus (deficit).Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.

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Figure 28.

Predicting Currencies

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96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 228.5

8.0

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2

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4

5

Jan2/18

CHINA: NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES & YUAN

Non-Gold International Reserves(trillion dollars, nsa)

Yuan/US$(inverted scale)

Source: IMF and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 29.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-1000

0

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Oct

Dec

WORLD EX-US: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(billion dollars)

World Trade Surplus with US*(12-month sum)World Non-GoldInternational Reserves(12-month change)

* US trade deficit multiplied by -1.0.Source: IMF and Haver Analytics.

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Figure 30.

Predicting Currencies

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2000

-1000

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2000

Oct

WORLD EX-US: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS*(billion dollars)

* 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus with US (i.e., US trade deficit multiplied by -1.0).Source: IMF and Haver Analytics.

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Figure 31.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2222

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IMPLIED WORLD EX-US CAPITAL FLOWS& TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change)

JP Morgan NominalBroad EffectiveExchange Rate**(inverted scale)

Implied World Ex-USCapital Flows*

* 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus (deficit). US trade deficit multiplied by -1.0.** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,

Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: IMF and JP Morgan.

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Figure 32.

Predicting Currencies

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2220

18

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14

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8

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2/12

WORLD NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (12-month change, billion dollars)& TRADE WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change)

JP Morgan NominalBroad EffectiveExchange Rate**(inverted scale)

World Non-GoldInternational Reserves*(12-month change)

* 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus (deficit). US trade deficit multiplied by -1.0.** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,

Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: IMF and JP Morgan.

yardeni.com

Figure 33.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2220

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10

-12

-14

-16

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Oct

2/12

WORLD NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (yearly percent change)& TRADE WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change)

JP Morgan NominalBroad EffectiveExchange Rate*(inverted scale)

World Non-GoldInternational Reserves(yearly percent change)

* Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany,Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan,Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey,United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States.Source: IMF and JP Morgan.

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Figure 34.

Predicting Currencies

Page 17 / February 18, 2021 / Chapter 12 Charts: Predicting Currencies www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 20: Chapter 12 Charts: Predicting CurrenciesChapter 12 Charts: Predicting Currencies Yardeni Research, Inc. October 1, 2020 Dr. Edward Yardeni Chief Investment Strategist Mali Quintana

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.8

2.8

4.8

6.8

8.8

10.8

12.8

14.8

.8

2.8

4.8

6.8

8.8

10.8

12.8

14.8

Q3Oct

Q3

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES HELD BY ALL CENTRAL BANKS(trillion dollars, ratio scale)

All Central BanksNon-Gold International ReservesTotal Foreign Exchange HoldingsTotal Allocated ReservesAllocated Reserves in US Dollars

Source: IMF.

yardeni.com

Figure 35.

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2260

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

Q3

CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF OFFICIAL FOREIGN-EXCHANGE RESERVES (COFER)(percent of Allocated Reserves in US dollars)

Percent of Allocated ReservesIn US Dollars

Source: IMF.

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Figure 36.

Predicting Currencies

Page 18 / February 18, 2021 / Chapter 12 Charts: Predicting Currencies www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 21: Chapter 12 Charts: Predicting CurrenciesChapter 12 Charts: Predicting Currencies Yardeni Research, Inc. October 1, 2020 Dr. Edward Yardeni Chief Investment Strategist Mali Quintana

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

Jan

Jan

TOTAL ASSETS OF MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS(trillion dollars)

ECBFed

Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 37.

***** Chart Not Available *****

Task: PTMBLOGTWDJPMORGAN1

REPLICATE’ing above limits

02-18-2021 - 13:27:25

Figure 38.

Predicting Currencies

Page 19 / February 18, 2021 / Chapter 12 Charts: Predicting Currencies www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 22: Chapter 12 Charts: Predicting CurrenciesChapter 12 Charts: Predicting Currencies Yardeni Research, Inc. October 1, 2020 Dr. Edward Yardeni Chief Investment Strategist Mali Quintana

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