CERTeT VISIONS AND PERSPECTIVES ON THE FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE, SHARED AND SMART MOBILITY Gabriele...
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Transcript of CERTeT VISIONS AND PERSPECTIVES ON THE FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE, SHARED AND SMART MOBILITY Gabriele...
CERTeT
VISIONS AND PERSPECTIVES ON THE FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE, SHARED AND SMART MOBILITY
Gabriele Grea*, Giuseppe Siciliano*
*Center for Research on Regional Economics, Transport and Tourism Bocconi University Milan
XV Riunione Scientifica della Società Italiana di Economia dei Trasporti e della Logistica (SIET) "Trasporti, organizzazione spaziale e sviluppo economico sostenibile", Venezia 18-20 settembre 2013
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Transport, mobility, FREEDOM
Transport
Demand for transport is a derived demand, depending from the demand of other economic sectors. Users «consume» transport services in order to access other goods or services.
Relevant variables: time, space, cost.
Mobility
Mobility can be considered as a functionality/capability.User is the core, accessing services under given «constraints».
Relevant variables: time, space, cost, experience/accessibility FREEDOM.
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Turning constraints into opportunities (I)
Some facts
• More than 60% of EU citizens live in urban areas, where 85% of GDP is produced.
• Because of congestion costs, 1% of UE GDP is lost every year.
• Traffic contribution to CO2 production is 40%.
• One third of road fatalities happens in urban environment (and victims are mainly walkers or bikers).
From EC Green Paper “Towards a new culture for urban mobility” (september 2007)
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Sustainable development approach:
Use of environmental, cultural and economic resources, minimizing external effects at local and global level;
Meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs;
Maintaining attractiveness and competitiveness of the local environment.
Turning constraints into opportunities (II)
Sustainable mobility is a "win-win strategy" because it combines environmental and economic advantages with the stimulus to economic growth and the livability of cities.
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Users, how will behave?
I. SUSTAINABLE
Quality of environment
Energy consumption/production
Safety
Global emissions
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II. SHARE
Space
Vehicles
Information and knowledge
Travel experiences
Users, how will behave?
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III. SMART
SUSTAINABLE
SHARED
Seamless
Flexible
Maximising our value of time
Looking for innovative and added value
services
Users, how will behave?
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How to measure Smart Mobility?
The objective
To measure and compare the degree of smartness of a meaningful panel of Italian cities in terms of mobility. This area is particularly relevant in terms of impact for the life of the city population, and so is the potential impact of technological advances and of policy innovations.
The ratio
The indicator favours cities which allow their citizen to meet the following needs:
• To travel safely – which we consider as a fundamental requirement, in light of both technological developments in terms of vehicle design, and the increased efficiency of transport services which can replace the private one.
• To travel seamlessly – it is the conceptual key pillar of the concept of “intelligent mobility”, in light of the complexity of trips which happen in an urban environment and to all related critical issues.
• To be connected to global networks – it is relevant in order to measure the seamlessness of the inside of a city with its outside (accessibility to/from other nodes of the global network).
OBJECTIVE AND RATIO
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How to measure Smart Mobility?
METHODOLOGYA performance indicator is associated to each need, which measures the degree in which the need is met in each city. The variables are selected so that they can represent the use-benefits-possibilities generated by the mobility systems, rather than sheer indicators of endowment.
The Smart Mobility Indicator of city i is then defined as Mi
Where is a correction of the performance indicator P of the city i for the need n defined as:
Where p is the “smartness threshold” chosen for the indicator P.
Such smartness thresholds have been introduced in order to favour cities in which results are good for all the indicators involved: we include completeness in the evaluation of smartness, as the ability to generate an “intelligent” environment in terms of all the defined needs. On the contrary, if a city is a best practice in only one of the needs, but emerges as “not smart” in other areas, the indicator will handicap it.
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A Smart Mobility indicatorfor Italian citiesPERFORMANCE INDICATORS
Need Performance indicator
Notes
To travel safely Accident rates Fatalities per 100 inhabitants (source: Euromobility)
To travel seamlessly
Seamless mobility indicator
An ad hoc indicator which sums up data concerning: LPT demand (LPT pax / population, avg 2008-2010) Use of car sharing (users /population - Euromobility) Use of bike sharing (users/population + available
bikes/population – Euromobility) Avg speed of LPT vehicles (ASSTRA – Anci) A premium is given for City Logistics practices
To be connected to global networks
Air accessibility indicator
An average of the Intercontinental and the Continental air accessibility indicators as calculated by Certet-Unioncamere , which consider:- Frequency of flights from the city to all
destinations- Economic importance of such destinations
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A Smart Mobility indicatorfor Italian citiesRESULTS
35 Mobilità Incidentalità Connettività Mobilità integrata
Bari 12,7 27,8 6,1 26,7
Bologna 28,8 41,7 23,6 34,4
Bolzano 20,4 41,0 - 33,0
Firenze 22,5 33,3 16,1 33,1
Genova 30,7 55,6 8,6 38,3
Milano 61,3 31,3 80,5 66,6
Napoli 28,6 83,3 18,9 22,4
Palermo 27,2 96,2 7,3 23,8
Roma 63,4 62,5 96,7 43,7
Trieste 33,3 100,0 2,6 32,5
Torino 37,3 66,7 14,6 40,7
Venezia 55,9 50,0 37,2 69,6
Verona 17,0 40,0 13,0 24,8
Performance indicators are summed by means of a weight vector:Low accident rates: 0,2Connectivity to global networks: 0,3Seamlessness urban mobility: 0,5
Thematic icons show if the city meets the smartness threshold in each area (green), or is close to it (yellow) or fall definitely short (red).
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The car of the future
Energy efficient *
Eco- friendly *
*IBM Automotive Global Study 2020
What about cars then?
Driverless
Modular
Specialized
Connected
…
«The emergence of a new automobile DNA (…) promises a renassaince in vehicles design. It will open up for exploration spaces of design possibilities that have never before seriously considered.
(Mitchell W. J. et. Al, Reinventing the automobile, MIT Press 2010)
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And in the end, is it still just about making cars?
Automotive sector:
New products
New services
Business models
Supply chains
Service providers:
Specific services (e. g. fleet
management, car rental, etc.)
Wider range of (sustainable)
mobility services, B2B and B2C
Users:
CAR OWNERS MOBILITY CONSUMERS
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And now, an idea coming from far away…
“Within a year, I hope, we shall begin the manufacture of an electric automobile. (…) Mr. Edison and I have been working for some years on an electric automobile which would be cheap and practicable. Cars have been built for experimental purposes, and we are satisfied now that the way is clear to success. The problem so far has been to build a storage battery of light weight which would operate for long distances without recharging. Mr. Edison has been experimenting with such a battery for some time.”
(Henry Ford, New York Times interview 11.1.1914).
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… will be possible tomorrow?
Source: M. de Saint-Chéron , Mobilitytech Milan, Oct 19th 2010
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E-mobility: which factors are driving the system?
VEICHLES(supply)
USERS(demand)
INSTITUTIONAL CONTEXT
(rules)
SOCIOECONOMIC BACKGROUND
(models)
HARDWARE INTERACTIONS
(networks)
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Vehicles - Batteries and OEMs plans
Batteries:Performance 150 km to 300 km.Duration from 3 years (1000 deep discharge) to 10 (in ten years).Costs from 700-1000 $/kWh, to 300$-400$.
OEMs plans:
Source: JRC ipts 2010, Nemry F., Brons M., Plug-in Hybrid and Battery Electric vehicles
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Scenarios and forecasts
Comparison of scenarios in terms of vehicle sales (EU level)
Source: JRC ipts 2010, Nemry F., Brons M., Plug-in Hybrid and Battery Electric vehicles
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Scenarios and forecasts
2020 2030
New car sales B1_I1 B1_I2 B2_I1 B2_I2 B1_I1 B1_I2 B2_I1 B2_I2
Conventional94,5%
90,2%
92,0%
85,7%
84,6%
58,5%
80,0%
38,4%
PHEV 5,0% 8,9% 6,4%11,4%
13,5%
32,5%
15,4%
32,6%
BEV 0,5% 0,9% 1,6% 2,9% 1,9% 9,0% 4,7%29,0%
New car sales shares in 2020 and 2030
Source: JRC ipts 2010, Nemry F., Brons M., Plug-in Hybrid and Battery Electric vehicles
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Users - Electro mobility strategic Diagram
“non-mainstream people, with different connotations ranging from "a computer expert or enthusiast" to "a person heavily
interested in a hobby“ (…)”[wikipedia]
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Hardware interactions: impacts on the grid
Source: JRC ies 2009, Perujo A., Ciuffo B. Potential Impact of Electric Vehicles on the Electric Supply System
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22 Source: JRC ies 2009, Perujo A., Ciuffo B. Potential Impact of Electric Vehicles on the Electric Supply System
Hardware interactions: impacts on the grid
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Business models for mobility
a. Product orientedb. Service oriented
Use (e.g. car sharing, fleet management, etc.) Result (transport services)
Approach to classification of business models for electric mobility, based on 3 driver clusters: vehicle + battery infrastructure integration grid + vehicle
Business models
Source: Lerch et al. (2010)
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Business model drivers: vehicle+battery
Source: Lerch et al. (2010)
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Business model drivers: infrastructure
Source: Lerch et al. (2010)
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Business model drivers: infrastructure+vehicle
Source: Lerch et al. (2010)
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Conclusions
Behavioral approach to mobility, how smart will we be?
How to measure the level of smartness for mobility in cities?
How mobility will be demanded, provided, «consumed»?
Electromobility and energy: which future, integration, business models?
CERTeT For feedbacks and further discussion:
Gabriele Grea [email protected] gabgreaGoogle hangouts [email protected]
“If we don’t start imagining this future, and then start trying to help shape this future, we’re going to be left behind, because this future is going to happen with or without us”
Bill Ford jr, 2013
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!