Certain Dry Pasta from Italy and Turkey€¦ · Rep. at IV-17, IV-25; Dom. Ind. Prehrg. Brf. at Ex....
Transcript of Certain Dry Pasta from Italy and Turkey€¦ · Rep. at IV-17, IV-25; Dom. Ind. Prehrg. Brf. at Ex....
Certain Dry Pasta from Italy and Turkey
Domestic Industry Hearing Presentation
July 11, 2013
KELLEY DRYE
Public
Italian Responding Producers
Turkish Responding Producers
Public
Turkish Unused Pasta Capacity
Public
450,000
Responding Turkish Producers, Dry Pasta Total Turkish Industry, Dry Pasta
KELLEY Source: ITC Prehrg. Rep. at IV-25; Dom. Ind. Prehrg. Brf. at Ex. 5 ((International Pasta Organisation DRYE ("IPO"): The World Pasta Industry in 2011) and Ex. 11.
Italian Unused Pasta Capacity
Public
o o o
p o u n d
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
268,901
1,533,653
Responding Italian Producers, Dry Pasta Total Italian Industry, Dry Pasta
K E L L E Y Source: ITC Prehrg. Rep. at IV-17; Dom. Ind. Prehrg. Brf. at Ex. 5 ((International Pasta Organisation DRYE ("IPO"): The World Pasta Industry in 2011) and Ex. 11.
Purchasers' Comparisons between
U.S.-Produced and Italian-Produced Dry Pasta
Factor United States vs. Italy
Superior Comparable Inferior
Availability 4 7 1
Delivery terms 4 7 1
Packaging 1 10 1
Product Consistency 1 11 0
Quality exceeds Industry standard 0 12 0
Quality meets Industry standard 0 11 1
Product range 0 10 2
Technical support/service 2 10 0
Source: ITC Prehrg. Rep. at 11-30. 6
Public
Exports of Dry Pasta, by Country
Country Volume (1,000 pounds)
Italy 3,525,588
Turkey 961,573
United States 225,398
Canada 95,319
Thailand 130,417
Egypt 132,921
Other 1,713,788
World 6,785,002
K E L L E Y D R Y E Source: ITC Prehrg. Rep. at IV-34 (HS 1902.19 (non-egg pasta)).
Public
Subject Dry Pasta Imports' Post-Order Trends
350,000
300,000
I 250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
1995 2012
•Imports from Italy •Imports from Turkey
D R Y E Source: ITC Prehrg. Rep. at I-8 (1995) and official Commerce statistics (2012).
Public
U.S. Market Share of Specialty "Niche" Products to All Dry Pasta
Other Types and Shapes, 98.11%
/
Gluten Free, 0.85%
Specialty Novelty, 0.002%
Organic, 0.90%
Specialty Specialty Nested, Flavored, 0.04% 0.11%
D R Y E Source: Nielsen data.
Public
Importance of Price in Purchasing Decisions
Somewhat Not Factor Very Important Important Important
Price 15 2 0
K E L L E Y D R Y E
Source: ITC Prehrg. at II-27 (citing purchasers'questionnaires).
Public
Comparison of Key U.S. Industry Trade Variables
Trend from 1995-2012
U.S. Apparent Domestic Consumption
U.S. Industry Market Share
Capacity
Production
Shipments (quantity)
PRWs
Hours Worked
11
Public
Corn is replacing wheat plantings leading to
higher raw material costs and increased vulnerability.
12
Public
Domestic Producers' Share of U.S. Market
88.0%
86.0%
84.0%
82.0%
80.0%
78.0%
76.0%
74.0%
87.0% 87.0% 87.0%
82.0%
87.0% 87.0%
78.6%
87.0%
78.6%
87.0%
i i
78.6%
1993 2006 2012
KELLEY Source: ITC Prehrg. Rep. at I-6 and I-7. DRYE
Public
Underselling by Subject Dry Pasta Imports January 2007-March 2013
Source Underselling
Based on Quarterly Comparisons
Underselling Percent
Average Margin
(percent)
Italy 110 of 190 58 18.1
Turkey 68 of 68 100 45.6
Total 178 of 258 69 28.5
KELLEY Source: ITC Prehrg. Rep. at V-36. DRYE 14
Public
Italian Dry Pasta Production
Responding Italian Producers, Dry Pasta
Total Italian Industry, Dry Pasta
1,153,633
6,580,913
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000
1,000 Pounds
D R Y E
Source: Source: ITC Prehrg. Rep. at IV-17, IV-25; Dom. Ind. Prehrg. Brf. at Ex. 5 (International Pasta Organisation ("IPO"): The World Pasta Industry in 2011) and Ex. 11.
Turkish Dry Pasta Production
Public
Responding Turkish Producers, Dry Pasta 1,089,587
Total Turkish Industry, Dry Pasta 1,690,165
500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000
1,000 Pounds
* Source: Source: ITC Prehrg. Rep. at IV-17, IV-25; Dom. Ind. Prehrg. Brf. at Ex. 5 (International Pasta DRYE Organisation ("IPO"): The World Pasta Industry in 2011) and Ex. 11.
Public
Italian and Turkish Dry Pasta Production
Responding Italian + Turkish Producers, Dry Pasta
Total Italian + Turkish Industry, Dry Pasta
2,243,220
8,271,077
2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000
1,000 Pounds
K E L L E Y D R Y E
Source: ITC Prehrg. Rep. at IV-17, IV-25; Dom. Ind. Prehrg. Brf. at Ex. 5 (International Pasta Organisation ("IPO"): The World Pasta Industry in 2011) and Ex. 11.
Public
Production of Responding Subject Producers
3,000,000
2,500,000
1 0 2,000,000 0
p o u n d s
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
2007 Italy Turkey
2012 u Italy + Turkey
D R Y E Source: ITC Prehrg. Brf. at IV-17; IV-25.
I
Public
Italian and Turkish Dry Pasta Capacity
12,000,000
K E L L E Y Source: ITC Prehrg. Rep. at IV-17, IV-25; Dom. Ind. Prehrg. Brf. at Ex. 11 Dom. Ind. Prehrg. Brf. at Ex. 5 D R Y E and 11 (International Pasta Organisation ("IPO"): The World Pasta Industry in 2011).
Public
Italian and Turkish Unused Dry Pasta Capacity
2,500,000
KELLEY Source: : ITC Prehrg. Rep. at IV-17, IV-25; Dom. Ind. Prehrg. Brf. at Ex. 5 (International Pasta DRYE Organisation ("IPO"): The World Pasta Industry in 2011) and Ex. 11. 21
Public
Pasta Production Is Growing in Third-Country Markets
Egypt • Iran
Guatemala • India
Ghana • Ecuador
Russia • Mexico
Peru • Costa Rica
Oman • Cote d'lvoire
Tunisia • Mauritius
Argentina
K E L L E Y
D R Y E Source: Dom. Ind. Prehrg. Brf. at Ex. 5 (IPO report) and Ex. 7 (GTIS data). 22
All Pasta Consumption
Public
1 o 0 0
p o u mi d s
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
* * * * * M M
M M * * * * *
* * M * * * * *
* * * * * * * * *
* * * * * * * * *
* * * * *
United States Italy
in United States = Italy a Turkey
Turkey
K E L L E Y Source: Dom. Ind. Prehrg. Brf. at Ex. 5 ((International Pasta Organisation ("IPO"): The World Pasta 23 D R Y E Industry in 2011).
Public
Italy's AUVs to United States and Other Top Ten Export Markets
January - February 2013
Country AUV $/Pound
United States 0.68
Germany 0.53
France 0.52
United Kingdom 0.52
Japan 0.68
Russia 0.51
Sweden 0.58
Netherlands 0.56
Belgium 0.62
Austria 0.56
K E L L E Y D R Y E S o u r c e : D o m " l n d - P r e h r 9 - B r f - a t E x - 7 ( G T I S d a t a ) - 24
Public
Turkey's AUVs to United States and Top Ten Export Markets
January - February 2013
Country AUV $/Pound
United States 0.33
Angola 0.32
Benin 0.31
Togo 0.31
Niger 0.35
Japan 0.39
Congo 0.34
Cameroon 0.32
United Arab Emirates 0.32
Djibouti 0.32
Israel 0.31
Source: Dom. Ind. Prehrg. Brf. at Ex. 7 (GTIS data). 25
Public
Responding Subject Producers' Responding Subject Producers' Unused Capacity as a Share of Unused Capacity as a Share of
U.S. Market, 1995 U.S. Market, 2012
• Italy "Turkey
KELLEY Source: ITC Prehrg. Rep. at I-6; Dom. Ind. Prehrg. Brf. at Ex. 5 (International Pasta Organisation ("IPO"): DRYE The World Pasta Industry in 2011), Ex. 11, and Ex. 15.
Public
Total Italian and Turkish Industry's
Unused Dry Pasta Capacity as a Share of U.S. Market
• Italy + Turkey
Source: Dom. Ind. Prehrg. Brf. at Ex. 5 (International Pasta Organisation ("IPO"): The World Pasta Industry in 2011), Ex. 11, and Ex. 15.
Turkish Dry Pasta Exports
1,200,000
1,000,000
Public
Italian Dry Pasta Exports
3,550,000
Public
Turkey's Plans for Increasing Exports
In Imminent Future
• "Turkish Producers Set Eyes on Italians' Throne" (May 25, 2013).
• "Turkey Longs for Italy's Top Pasta Exporter Seat" (April 3, 2013).
• "Turkey, the second pasta exporter in the world after Italy, has eyes on Italy's seat at top" (April 3, 2013).
Source: Dom. Industry Prehrg. Brf. at Ex. 8 (Turknewsline) and http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com.
Public
Italy and Turkey are Net Exporters
4,000,000
3,500,000
1 3,000,000 o o o 2,500,000
o 2,000,000 u n d 1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
Turkish Exports Turkish Imports Italian Exports Italian Imports
D R Y E Source: Dom. Ind. Prehrg. Brf. at Ex. 7 (GTIS data (2012)).