Center for Labor Markets and Policy | Drexel University Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Markets...

Center for Labor Markets and Policy | Drexel University

Paul E. HarringtonCenter for Labor Markets and Policy

Drexel University

America at Full-Employment? Understanding Labor Market Imbalances in the Context of

Sluggish Economic Growth


Dec 2000 Mar 2002 Jun 2003 Sep 2004 Dec 2005 Mar 2007 Jun 2008 Sep 2009 Dec 2010 Mar 2012 Jun 2013 Sep 20140

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

5273

3074

4657

2146

3065

4023

5373

Trends in the Number of Job Openings in the U.S. 2000 to April 2015 Seasonally Adjusted


Dec 2000 Jan 2002 Feb 2003 Mar 2004 Apr 2005May 2006 Jun 2007 Jul 2008 Aug 2009Sep 2010 Oct 2011Nov 2012Dec 2013 Jan 20150

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Trends in the Ratio of the Number of Current Unemployed to the Number of Current Job Openings,

through July, 2015Seasonally Adjusted

Vacant Job Unemployment

U/V Ratio =1.1

U/V = 2.82

U/V = 1.69

U/V = 6.46

U/V = 1.44


The Beveridge Curve (Monthly Job Vacancy Rate versus Unemployment Rate) Seasonally Adjusted, December 2000 to April 2015

2 4 6 8 10 121

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Unemployment Rate

Job

Vacan

cy R

ate

Dec-00

Jul-09

Oct-09

Apr-15

Shift


Unemployment and Job Vacancy Rates, by Selected Major Industry, U.S. April, 2015

Unemployment Rate Job Vacancy Rate

Construction 6.7 3.7

Manufacturing 4.6 2.3

Durable 4.1 2.6

Non Durable 5.4 2.6

TTU 5.7 3.5

Retail NA 3.4

Prof and Business 6.1 5.1

Education & Health 3.5 4.4

Health Care and Social Assistance NA 4.7

Leisure & Hospitality 7.9 4.7

Arts and Entertainment NA 3

Accomommodataiona nd Food Services NA 4.9

Government 2.3 2.2


Unemployed Job Vacancies U/V

Construction 569 153 3.72

Manufacturing 702 327 2.15

Durable 405 209 1.94

Non Durable 297 119 2.50

TTU 1498 968 1.55

Retail 543 0.00

Prof and Business 963 1058 0.91

Education & Health 806 1009 0.80

Health Care and Social Assistance 910 0.00

Leisure & Hospitaltiy 1117 734 1.52

Arts and Entertainment 67 0.00

Accommodation and Food Services 667 0.00

Government 489 0.00

Ratio of Unemployed to Job Vacancies in the U.S., 2015


Job Vacancy New Hires Separations

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Ratio of Separations

to HiresTotal 5376 3.7 5088 3.5 4881 3.5 0.96Construction 153 2.3 326 5.1 284 4.4 0.87Manufacturing 327 2.6 256 2.1 259 2.1 1.01 Durable 209 2.6 148 1.9 153 2 1.03 Non Durable 119 2.6 108 2.4 107 2.4 0.99TTU 968 3.5 1039 3.9 1033 3.9 0.99 Retail 543 3.4 718 4.6 714 4.6 0.99Prof and Business 1058 5.1 1035 5.3 1001 5.1 0.97Education & Health 1009 4.4 596 2.7 522 2.4 0.88

Health Care and Social Assistance 910 4.7 513 2.8 452 2.4 0.88

Leisure & Hospitaltiy 734 4.7 915 6.1 949 6.3 1.04Arts and Entertainment 67 3 123 5.8 132 6.2 1.07

Accommodation and Food Services 667 4.9 792 6.1 817 6.3 1.03

Government 489 2.2 339 1.5 328 1.5 0.97

Job Openings and Labor Turnover in the U.S., 2015


Unemployment Rates by Occupation in the U.S., 2007, 2010, and 2014 (CPS Annual Averages)

Occupation 2007 2010 2014Management Occupations 1.8 4.9 2.7Business and Financial Operations Occupations 2.4 5.7 3.7Computer and Mathematical Occupations 2.2 5.3 2.8Architecture and Engineering Occupations 1.6 6.2 3.2Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations 2.0 4.7 3.8Community and Social Services Occupations 2.3 4.7 3.1Legal Occupations 2.4 2.7 2.4Education, Training, and Library Occupations 2.3 4.2 3.4Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations 4.4 8.9 6.2Healthcare Practitioner and Technical Occupations 1.3 2.6 2.2Healthcare Support Occupations 4.5 7.7 5.4Protective Service Occupations 3.7 6.0 4.5Food Preparation and Serving Occupations 7.6 12.4 8.6Building and Grounds Cleaning Occupations 6.8 12.8 8.7Personal Care and Service Occupations 4.8 8.7 7.0High-Level Sales Occupations 2.7 6.2 3.4Low-Level Sales Occupations 7.0 12.3 8.7Office and Administrative Support Occupations 4.0 8.7 5.9Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations 8.5 16.3 11.7Construction and Extraction Occupations 7.7 20.2 9.7Installations, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations 3.4 9.3 4.5Production Occupations 5.7 13.2 7.0Transportation and Material Moving Occupations 6.1 12.5 7.8


All Workers Full-Time Workers

Year Mean Median Mean Median

2007 933 738 1,048 856

2008 923 740 1,041 846

2009 932 743 1,062 883

2010 938 742 1,071 868

2011 939 758 1,062 884

2012 908 722 1,039 853

2013 925 732 1,052 864

2014 950 769 1,078 893

Mean/Median Weekly Earnings of Wage and Salary Workers, New York (In 2014 Dollars)


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014845

850

855

860

865

870

875

880

885

890

876

873

886

880

862

866

871

864

CPS Real Mean Weekly Wages, All Employed (in 2014 Dollars)


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014**955

960

965

970

975

980

985

980

965

975

980

974

981

978

972

QCEW Real Average Weekly Wages on Covered Payrolls in the U.S.

(in 2014 Dollars)


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201423.2

23.4

23.6

23.8

24.0

24.2

24.4

24.6

24.8

24.0

23.8

24.724.6

24.324.3

24.5 24.5

CES Real Average Hourly Wages of Wage and Salary Workers (in 2014 Dollars)


Select Start Date Select End DateAbsolute Change

Relative ChangeJul-03 Dec-07

Total Nonfarm 130190 138350 8160 6.3%Total Private 108557 115974 7417 6.8%Goods-producing 21708 21976 268 1.2%Service-providing 108482 116374 7892 7.3%Private Service-providing 86849 93998 7149 8.2%Mining and Logging 571 740 169 29.6%Construction 6735 7490 755 11.2%Manufacturing 14402 13746 -656 -4.6%Durable Goods 8886 8707 -179 -2.0%Nondurable Goods 5516 5039 -477 -8.6%Trade, transportation, and utilities 25218 26714 1496 5.9%Wholesale Trade 5596.5 6037.8 441.3 7.9%Retail Trade 14884.4 15570.8 686.4 4.6%Transportation and warehousing 4163.4 4548 384.6 9.2%Utilities 573.9 557.1 -16.8 -2.9%Information 3176 3024 -152 -4.8%Financial Activities 8100 8282 182 2.2%Professional and business services 15999 18051 2052 12.8%Education and health services 16813 18861 2048 12.2%Leisure and hospitality 12143 13550 1407 11.6%Other Services 5400 5516 116 2.1%Government 21633 22376 743 3.4%

Trends in Non Farm Payroll Employment in the U.S., July 2003 to December 2007



Relative ChangeDec-07 Feb-10

Total Nonfarm 138350 129649 -8701 -6.3%Total Private 115974 107173 -8801 -7.6%Goods-producing 21976 17627 -4349 -19.8%Service-providing 116374 112022 -4352 -3.7%Private Service-providing 93998 89546 -4452 -4.7%Mining and Logging 740 674 -66 -8.9%Construction 7490 5500 -1990 -26.6%Manufacturing 13746 11453 -2293 -16.7%Durable Goods 8707 6985 -1722 -19.8%Nondurable Goods 5039 4468 -571 -11.3%

Trade, transportation, and utilities 26714 24537 -2177 -8.1%

Wholesale Trade 6037.8 5443.6 -594.2 -9.8%Retail Trade 15570.8 14399 -1171.8 -7.5%Transportation and warehousing 4548 4140 -408 -9.0%Utilities 557.1 554.8 -2.3 -0.4%Information 3024 2738 -286 -9.5%Financial Activities 8282 7724 -558 -6.7%

Professional and business services 18051 16548 -1503 -8.3%

Education and health services 18861 19756 895 4.7%Leisure and hospitality 13550 12927 -623 -4.6%Other Services 5516 5316 -200 -3.6%Government 22376 22476 100 0.4%

Trends in Non Farm Payroll Employment in the U.S., December 2007 to February 2010



Relative ChangeFeb-10 Sep-15

Total Nonfarm 129649 139619 9970 7.7%Total Private 107173 117739 10566 9.9%Goods-producing 17627 19315 1688 9.6%Service-providing 112022 120304 8282 7.4%Private Service-providing 89546 98424 8878 9.9%Mining and Logging 674 910 236 35.0%Construction 5500 6191 691 12.6%Manufacturing 11453 12214 761 6.6%Durable Goods 6985 7719 734 10.5%Nondurable Goods 4468 4495 27 0.6%

Trade, transportation, and utilities 24537 26467 1930 7.9%

Wholesale Trade 5443.6 5844.3 400.7 7.4%Retail Trade 14399 15410 1011 7.0%

Transportation and warehousing 4140 4659.6 519.6 12.6%

Utilities 554.8 553.3 -1.5 -0.3%Information 2738 2757 19 0.7%Financial Activities 7724 8007 283 3.7%

Professional and business services 16548 19231 2683 16.2%

Education and health services 19756 21585 1829 9.3%Leisure and hospitality 12927 14795 1868 14.5%Other Services 5316 5582 266 5.0%Government 22476 21880 -596 -2.7%

Trends in Non Farm Payroll Employment in the U.S., February 2010 to September 2015


2000 2007 2010 201560.0

61.0

62.0

63.0

64.0

65.0

66.0

67.0

68.0

67.2

66.2

64.9

63.0

Trends in the Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate of the Working Age (16+) Population in the United States,

2000 to 2015


Trends in CLFPR of the 16+ Population by Gender, Race Ethnicity, and Nativity Status, 2000 to 2015

2000 2007 2010 2015Absolute Change

Relative Change

All (16+) 67.2 66.2 64.9 63.0 -4.2 -6%

Male 74.9 73.4 71.3 69.5 -5.5 -7%

Female 60.1 59.5 58.8 56.9 -3.2 -5%

White 67.2 66.1 64.8 62.7 -4.5 -7%

Black 66.0 63.7 62.5 61.6 -4.4 -7%

Asian 67.4 66.5 65.0 62.9 -4.4 -7%

Hispanic 69.2 69.1 67.7 65.9 -3.3 -5%

Other 63.3 64.8 62.4 61.6 -1.7 -3%

Foreign-Born 67.1 68.2 67.5 64.7 -2.3 -3%

Native-Born 67.2 65.9 64.4 62.6 -4.6 -7%



Relative Change

HS Students 39.8 30.0 22.7 21.5 -18.3 -46%

HS Dropouts 47.3 49.0 47.9 46.7 -0.6 -1%

H.S. Diploma/GED 66.3 64.2 62.6 59.0 -7.2 -11%

Some College 71.9 69.1 67.0 64.1 -7.8 -11%

Associate's Degree

78.5 76.6 75.1 71.5 -7.0 -9%

Bachelor Degree 79.2 78.0 76.9 74.8 -4.5 -6%

Master's or Higher Degree

80.6 78.7 77.4 75.3 -5.4 -7%

Trends in the CLFPR of the 16+ Population in the U.S. by Educational Attainment, 2000 to 2015



Relative Change

16-19 52.4 42.3 36.0 35.7 -16.7 -32%

20-24 77.9 74.6 71.8 71.0 -6.9 -9%

25-29 84.7 83.2 81.9 80.7 -4.0 -5%

30-34 84.6 83.3 82.5 81.3 -3.3 -4%

35-44 84.8 83.9 83.3 82.0 -2.8 -3%

45-54 82.5 82.0 81.3 79.8 -2.7 -3%

55-64 59.6 64.1 65.0 64.2 4.6 8%

65+ 13.2 16.4 17.5 19.4 6.1 46%

Trends in the CLFPR of the 16+ Population in the U.S., by Age Group, 2000 to 2015


Estimating the Size of the Missing Labor Force in the U.S.

2015 Actual Population

2000 Actual CLFPR

Hypothetical 2000 Labor Force (2000

LFPR)

Actual 2015 Labor Force

Labor Supply Decrease

Percent Impact

16-19 16619940 0.523924 8707593.5 5934761 -2772832 -31.8%

20-24 22024034 0.77917 17160461 15633079 -1527382 -8.9%

25-29 21633805 0.847105 18326107 17458438 -867668.6 -4.7%

30-34 21034350 0.845966 17794350 17108119 -686230.5 -3.9%

35-44 39693386 0.847975 33658998 32562603 -1096395 -3.3%

45-54 42686130 0.824949 35213867 34044363 -1169504 -3.3%

55-64 40461723 0.595918 24111856 25970362 1858505.8 7.7%

65+ 46229015 0.132481 6124448.9 8964172 2839723.1 46.4%

161097680 157675897 -3421783 -2.1%



Relative Change

16-19 13.2 15.6 25.5 17.4 4.3 33%

20-24 7.3 8.3 15.5 10.2 2.8 39%

25-29 4.1 5.3 11.0 6.4 2.2 54%

30-34 3.4 4.2 9.3 5.2 1.8 54%

35-44 3.0 3.5 8.1 4.3 1.3 43%

45-54 2.5 3.2 7.7 3.9 1.4 59%

55-64 2.5 3.1 7.2 4.0 1.5 61%

65+ 3.0 3.2 6.6 3.9 0.9 30%

Trends in the Unemployment Rate of the Civilian Labor Force by Age Group, 2000 to 2015


Trends in the Employment to Population Ratio by Age in the U.S.,2000 to 2015


Relative Change

16-19 45.5 35.7 26.8 29.5 -16.0 -35%

20-24 72.2 68.4 60.7 63.8 -8.4 -12%

25-29 81.2 78.8 72.9 75.5 -5.6 -7%

30-34 81.8 79.8 74.8 77.1 -4.6 -6%

35-44 82.2 81.0 76.5 78.5 -3.7 -5%

45-54 80.5 79.4 75.0 76.6 -3.8 -5%

55-64 58.1 62.2 60.3 61.6 3.5 6%

65+ 12.9 15.9 16.4 18.6 5.8 45%

Total 64.5 63.1 58.6 59.5 -5.0 -8%



Relative Change

16-19 15.13 10.42 6.47 7.84 -7.29 -48%

20-24 53.62 48.07 36.94 40.25 -13.37 -25%

25-29 71.79 68.34 60.63 63.46 -8.33 -12%

30-34 72.47 70.4 63.84 67 -5.47 -8%

35-44 72.48 71.37 65.74 68.63 -3.85 -5%

45-54 71.52 70.35 64.68 67.39 -4.13 -6%

55-64 47.88 51.78 49.35 51.41 3.53 7%

65+ 6.18 8.81 9.34 11.46 5.28 85%

Full-Time Employment to Population Ratio in the U.S., 2000 to 2015


2000 FT E/P Ratio

Actual 2015 Population

Hypothetical 2015 FT

Employment

Actual 2015 FT

Employment

FT Employment Loss

Percent Loss

16-19 0.1513 16619940 2514597 1303284 -1211313 -48%

20-24 0.5362 22024034 11809287 8863649 -2945638 -25%

25-29 0.7179 21633805 15530909 13729354 -1801554 -12%

30-34 0.7247 21034349 15243593 14093497 -1150095 -8%

35-44 0.7248 39693386 28769766 27240581 -1529185 -5%

45-54 0.7152 42686131 30529121 28765610 -1763511 -6%

55-64 0.4788 40461723 19373073 20803141 1430068 7%

65+ 0.0618 46229014 2856953 5298379 2441426 85%

Impact of Economic Turbulence of Full-Time Employment, by Age Group, 2000 to 2015


Mean Annual Earnings

Gender Educational Attainment 2000 2007 2010 2014

Male <12 or 12, No HS Diploma 26494 25943 25413 27950

High School Diploma 47215 45007 42392 42886

Some College 54063 49801 46692 48125

Bachelor's Degree 89162 84142 78767 78820

Master's or Higher Degree 125941 119006 115948 115477

Total 61880 59824 57714 59146

Female <12 or 12, No HS Diploma 15350 15208 14801 16199


Some College 32488 33396 31640 31081



Total 36040 38920 38565 39202

Total <12 or 12, No HS Diploma 21867 21799 21277 23446


Some College 42991 41376 38854 39377



Total 49593 49928 48589 49645

Trends in the Real Mean Annual Earnings of the Employed, 16 to 64Years Old, 2000 to 2014


Mean Annual Earnings

Gender Educational Attainment 2000 2007 2010 2014Absolute Change

Relative Change

Male <12 or 12, No HS Diploma 26494 25943 25413 27950 1456 5.5%

High School Diploma 47215 45007 42392 42886 -4329 -9.2%

Some College 54063 49801 46692 48125 -5939 -11.0%

Bachelor's Degree 89162 84142 78767 78820 -10341 -11.6%

Master's or Higher Degree 125941 119006 115948 115477 -10464 -8.3%

Total 61880 59824 57714 59146 -2734 -4.4%

Female <12 or 12, No HS Diploma 15350 15208 14801 16199 849 5.5%

High School Diploma 28155 29543 27989 28311 156 0.6%

Some College 32488 33396 31640 31081 -1407 -4.3%



Total 36040 38920 38565 39202 3162 8.8%

Total <12 or 12, No HS Diploma 21867 21799 21277 23446 1579 7.2%

High School Diploma 38205 38155 36132 36744 -1461 -3.8%

Some College 42991 41376 38854 39377 -3613 -8.4%



Total 49593 49928 48589 49645 53 0.1%

Trends in the Mean Annual Earnings of Employed Persons Aged 16 to 64, by Educational Attainment, 2000 to 2014 (constant 2014 dollars)


1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20150

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

82796

104961

125857

142586

153885157061

Trends in the Size of the U.S. Labor Force, 1970 to 2015


1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-20150.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

2.70

1.90

1.30

1.08

0.04

Annual Average Rate of Change in the Size of the U.S. Civilian Labor Force, 1970 to 2015


Trends in the U.S. CLFPR, by Age, Projected through 2022

2012 to 2022

Group 1992 2002 2012 2022Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total, 16 years and older 66.4 66.6 63.7 61.6 -2.1 -3%

16 to 24 66.1 63.3 54.9 49.6 -5.3 -10%

16 to 19 51.3 47.4 34.3 27.3 -7.0 -21%

20 to 24 77.1 76.4 70.9 67.3 -3.6 -5%

25 to 54 83.6 83.3 81.4 81.0 -0.4 -1%

25 to 34 83.7 83.7 81.7 81.1 -0.6 -1%

35 to 44 85.1 84.1 82.6 81.8 -0.8 -1%

45 to 54 81.5 82.1 80.2 79.9 -0.3 0%

55 and older 29.7 34.5 40.5 41.5 1.0 3%

55 to 64 56.2 61.9 64.5 67.5 3.0 5%

55 to 59 67.4 70.7 72.5 75.5 3.0 4%

60 to 64 45.0 50.5 55.2 59.8 4.6 8%

60 to 61 56.0 59.7 63.8 68.4 4.6 7%

62 to 64 37.7 43.7 49.1 53.8 4.7 10%

65 and older 11.5 13.2 18.5 23.0 4.5 24%

65 to 74 16.3 20.4 26.8 31.9 5.1 19%

65 to 69 20.6 26.1 32.1 38.3 6.2 19%

70 to 74 11.1 14.0 19.5 24.0 4.5 23%

75 to 79 6.3 7.4 11.4 14.9 3.5 31%

75 and older 4.5 5.1 7.6 10.5 2.9 38%


Trends in the Size of the Civilian Labor Force in the U.S., Projections to 2022

Projected, 2012-2022


Relative Change

Total, 16 years and older

128105 144863 154975 163450 8475 5.5%

16 to 24 21617 22366 21285 18462 -2823 -13.3%

16 to 19 7096 7586 5823 4473 -1350 -23.2%

20 to 24 14521 14780 15462 13989 -1473 -9.5%

25 to 54 91429 101720 101253 103195 1942 1.9%

25 to 34 35369 32196 33465 36786 3321 9.9%

35 to 44 33899 36927 32734 34810 2076 6.3%

45 to 54 22160 32597 35054 31600 -3454 -9.9%

55 and older 15060 20777 32437 41793 9356 28.8%

55 to 64 11587 16308 24710 28317 3607 14.6%

65 to 74 2932 3665 6344 10915 4571 72.1%

75 and older 542 804 1383 2561 1178 85.2%


Trends in the Size of the Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate in the U.S., by Race/Ethnicity and Projections to 2022

Participation Rate

Projections,2012 to 2022


Relative Change

White non-Hispanic 66.7 66.5 63.5 60.8 -2.7 -4.4%

Men 76.0 73.8 69.9 67.0 -2.9 -4.3%

Women 58.1 59.6 57.6 54.9 -2.7 -4.9%

Black 63.9 64.8 61.5 59.8 -1.7 -2.8%

Men 70.7 68.4 63.6 61.7 -1.9 -3.1%

Women 58.5 61.8 59.8 58.3 -1.5 -2.6%

Asian 66.5 67.2 63.9 63.2 -0.7 -1.0%

Men 75.2 75.9 72.2 71.4 -0.8 -1.1%

Women 58.2 59.1 56.5 56.1 -0.4 -0.7%

Hispanic origin 66.8 69.1 66.4 65.9 -0.5 -0.8%

Men 80.7 80.3 76.1 74.8 -1.3 -1.7%

Women 52.8 57.6 56.6 56.8 0.2 0.4%


Projected, 2012-2022


Relative Change

White non-Hispanic 98724 103349 101892 99431 -2461 -2.4%

Men 53984 55340 54325 53282 -1043 -1.9%

Women 44740 48009 47567 46149 -1418 -3.0%

Black 14162 16565 18400 20247 1847 10.0%

Men 6997 7794 8594 9547 953 11.1%

Women 7166 8772 9805 10700 895 9.1%

Asian 5106 6604 8188 10135 1947 23.8%

Men 2799 3567 4334 5341 1007 23.2%

Women 2305 3037 3853 4794 941 24.4%

Hispanic origin 11338 17943 24391 31179 6788 27.8%

Men 6900 10610 14026 17925 3899 27.8%

Women 4439 7334 10365 13254 2889 27.9%

Trends in the Size of the Civilian Labor Force in the U.S., by Race/Ethnicity and Projections to 2022

Center for Labor Markets and Policy | Drexel University Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Markets...

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