Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Markets and Policy Drexel University

Center for Labor Markets and Policy | Drexel University

Productivity, Jobs, and the American College Labor Market

Understanding Developments in Economic Activity and the Labor Market

Paul E. HarringtonCenter for Labor Markets and Policy

Drexel University

Trends in the gross domestic product (in trillions of constant 2005 dollars) and nonfarm payroll employment (millions of jobs) in the US,

2007-IV to 2011-IV

Chart 1Trends in the gross domestic product (in trillions of

constant 2005 dollars) and nonfarm payroll employment (millions of jobs) in the US, 2007-IV to

2011-II

GDP, 13.326 GDP, 12.641 GDP, 13.422

Empl ., 137.9

Empl ., 130.9Empl., 132.0

126

140

12.2

13.6

2007-IV 2009-II 2011-IV

Nonf

arm

Pay

roll

Emplo

ymen

t (M

illion

s)

Gros

s Dom

estic

Pro

duct

(Tril

lions

) of

2005

Con

stan

t Dol

lars

)


Trends in the manufacturing gross domestic product (in trillions of constant 2005 dollars) and nonfarm payroll employment (millions of

jobs) in the US, 2007-2010

GDP, 1.692

GDP, 1.444

GDP, 1.606

Empl., 13.879

Empl., 11.847

Empl., 11.524

11

14

1.4

1.7

2007 2009 2010

Man

ufac

turin

g Pay

roll

Empl

oym

ent

(Mill

ions

)

Mnu

fact

urin

g GDP

(Tril

lions

of 2

005

Cons

tant

Dol

lars

)


Inflation adjusted value of U.S. Manufacturing output is about4% greater than in 2000,oalthough still below 2007.

Manufacturing employment has declined by about 30 percent since 2000.

Output per hour of labor input has increased by an astonishing40% over the decade.

Productivity gains associated with: - substitution of physical capital for labor - Improved technologies in production - New ways of organizing production—sophisticated supply chains and distribution networks - Rising educational attainment and skills in the manufacturing workforce

Productivity Gains in Manufacturing


YearTotal

Employment ManufacturingManufacturing Share of Total

1970 71,006.9 17,847.1 25.1%1975 77,071.3 16,912.6 21.9%1980 90,526.4 18,732.4 20.7%1985 97,507.0 17,818.5 18.3%1990 109,490.0 17,695.1 16.2%1995 117,307.0 17,244.0 14.7%2000 131,794.0 17,265.1 13.1%2005 133,694.0 14,225.3 10.6%2011 131,153.0 11,723.3 8.9%

Trends in the Manufacturing Share of Employment in the U.S., 1970-2011 (Numbers in thousands)


Seasonally Adjusted,In Thousands June 2003

December2007

Absolute Change

Percent Change

United States Total 129,839 137,983 8,144 6.3%Construction 6,723 7,487 764 11.4%Manufacturing 14,493 13,740 -753 -5.2%Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 25,237 26,731 1,494 5.9%Information 3,182 3,024 -158 -5.0%Financial Activities 7,985 8,225 240 3.0%Professional and Business Services 15,939 18,052 2,113 13.3% Professional and Technical Services 6,581 7,806 1,225 18.6% Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,681 1,903 222 13.2% Administrative and Waste Services 7,677 8,343 666 8.7%Education and Health Services 16,584 18,555 1,971 11.9% Educational Services 2,691 2,978 287 10.6% Health Care 11,826 13,103 1,277 10.8% Social Assistance 2,067 2,474 407 19.7%Leisure and Hospitality 12,121 13,538 1,417 11.7%Other Services 5,397 5,514 117 2.2%Government 21,606 22,377 771 3.6%

United States: Change in Employment by SectorJune 2003 – December 2007


Seasonally Adjusted,In Thousands December 2007 February 2010

Absolute Change

Percent Change

United States Total 137,983 129,246 -8737 -6.3%Construction 7,487 5,533 -1954 -26.1%Manufacturing 13,740 11,462 -2278 -16.6%Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 26,731 24,525 -2206 -8.3%Information 3,024 2,731 -293 -9.7%Financial Activities 8,225 7,657 -568 -6.9%Professional and Business Services 18,052 16,544 -1508 -8.4% Professional and Technical Services 7,806 7,414 -392 -5.0%

Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,903 1,852 -52 -2.7% Administrative and Waste Services 8,343 7,278 -1065 -12.8%Education and Health Services 18,555 19,399 844 4.5% Educational Services 2,978 3,119 141 4.7% Health Care 13,103 13,688 585 4.5% Social Assistance 2,474 2,593 119 4.8%Leisure and Hospitality 13,538 12,932 -606 -4.5%Other Services 5,514 5,317 -197 -3.6%Government 22,377 22,474 97 0.4%

United States: Change in Employment by SectorDecember 2007 – February 2010


Seasonally Adjusted, in thousands Feb-10 Jan-12Absolute Change

Percent Change

United States, Total 129,246 132,409 3,163 2.4%Construction 5,533 5,572 11 0.2%Manufacturing 11,462 11,862 328 2.9%Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 24,525 25,220 618 2.5%Information 2,731 2,632 -73 -2.7%Financial Activities 7,657 7,690 -33 -0.4%Professional and Business Services 16,544 17,654 810 4.9% Professional and Technical Services 7,414 7,846.5 302 4.1% Management of Companies 1,852 1,936.2 48 2.6% Administrative and Waste Services 7,278 7,872 461 6.3%Education and Health Services 19,399 20,110 788 4.1% Educational Services 3,119 3,287.2 137 4.4% Health Care 13,688 142,107 549 4.0% Social Assistance 2,593 2,612 101 3.9%Leisure and Hospitality 12,932 13,499 410 3.2%Other Services 5,317 5,353 145 2.7%Government 22,474 21,973 -502 -2.2%

United States: Change in Employment by SectorFebruary 2010 – January, 2012


Jan-11 Jan-12Absolute Change

Relative Change

Total 130,456 132,409 1,953 1.5%Manufacturing 11,627 11,862 235 2.0% Durable 7,174 7,408 234 3.3% Non Durable 4,453 4,454 1 0.0%Wholesale Trade 5,483.4 5,582.9 99.5 1.8%Retail Trade 14,550.1 14,741.4 191.3 1.3%Transportation 4,236.3 4,336.5 100.2 2.4%Prof-Tech Services 7,534.6 7,846.5 311.9 4.1% Legal 1,116.5 1,116.6 0.1 0.0% Accounting-Bookkeeping 877.7 973.4 95.7 10.9% Engineering-Arch 1,277.8 1,309.3 31.5 2.5% Computer-Systems 1,493 1,559.3 66.3 4.4%Magmt-Tech Consulting 1,894.3 1,936.2 41.9 2.2%Temporary Help 2,245.5 2,406 160.5 7.1%Educational Services 3,207.1 3,287.2 80.1 2.5%Health Service 16,488.9 16,822.5 333.6 2.0% Ambulatory 6,051.5 6,243.5 192 3.2% Hospitals 4,693.1 4,788.7 95.6 2.0% Nursing -Residential Facilities 3,153.6 3,178.8 25.2 0.8%Social Services 2,590.7 2,611.8 21.1 0.8%Leisure-Hospitlaity 13,138 13,499 361 2.7% Arts-Entertainment 1,891.3 1,923.8 32.5 1.7% Accommodation-Food 11,246.2 11,575.2 329 2.9%

Key Industry Sources of New Job Creation in the U.S. 2011


Trends in the Employment of theCivilian Non Institutional Working Age Population

in the U.S., by Educational AttainmentEducational Attainment 2006-2007 2010-2011

Absolute Change

Relative Change

H.S. Students 2,458,695 1,569,875 -888,820 -36.2%

H.S. Dropouts 14,061,778 11,560,775 -2,501,003 -17.8%

H.S. Graduates 41,906,946 38,410,963 -3,495,983 -8.3%

College Students 4,935,770 4,884,111 -51,659 -1.0%

Some College 24,686,666 23,306,728 -1,379,938 -5.6%

Associate's Degree 13,348,073 13,795,242 447,169 3.4%

Bachelor's Degree 29,113,393 29,802,678 689,285 2.4%

M.A. or Higher Degree 15,037,304 16,245,472 1,208,168 8.0%

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Current Population Survey, Public Use Data Files, Tabulations by Center for Labor Markets and Policy, Drexel University


Labor Force Data


136,000

138,000

140,000

142,000

144,000

146,000

148,000

150,000

152,000

154,000

156,000

United States Labor ForceJanuary 2001 – December 2011

Month - Year

Lab

or F

orce

(IIn

Tho

usan

ds)


2008 2009 2010 2011 151.0

152.0

153.0

154.0

155.0

156.0

157.0

158.0

159.0

154.3

155.6

156.8

158.1

154.2 153.9 153.6

Expected Labor Force Growth Actual Labor Force Growth

Expected Versus Actual Labor Force Growth in the U.S., 2008 to 2011

(in millions)


Changes in Labor Force for Under 30 Year Olds:

2007-2009Educational Attainment 2007 2009

Absolute Change

Relative Change

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 7,463,219

6,424,177 (1,039,042) -13.9%

H.S. Graduates 11,502,381

11,094,710 (407,671) -3.5%

Some College 9,836,691

10,090,561 253,870 2.6%

Associate's Degree 2,835,356

2,860,311 24,955 0.9%

Bachelor's Degree 6,492,680

6,679,689 187,009 2.9%

M.A. or Higher Degree 1,396,179

1,474,525 78,346 5.6%

Total 39,526,506

38,623,973 (902,533) -2.3%


Changes in Labor Force for 30-64 Year Olds:


Absolute Change

Relative Change

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 9,817,978 9,677,846 (140,132) -1.4%

H.S. Graduates 31,818,643 31,483,025 (335,618) -1.1%

Some College 18,817,566 18,563,082 (254,484) -1.4%



M.A. or Higher Degree 13,262,781 13,723,618 460,837 3.5%

Total 108,075,003 109,057,863 982,860 0.9%


Changes in Labor Force for Under 30 Year Olds:


Absolute Change

Relative Change

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 6,424,177

5,759,743 (664,434) -10.3%


10,866,569 (228,141) -2.1%


10,237,107 146,546 1.5%


3,012,089 151,778 5.3%


6,813,643 133,954 2.0%


1,524,756 50,231 3.4%

Total 38,623,973

38,213,907 (410,066) -1.1%


Changes in Labor Force for 30-64 Year Olds:


Absolute Change

Relative Change

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 9,677,846

9,354,297 (323,549) -3.3%


30,741,661 (741,364) -2.4%


18,251,778 (311,304) -1.7%


11,879,638 141,497 1.2%


23,983,118 110,967 0.5%


14,360,249 636,631 4.6%

Total 109,057,863

108,570,741 (487,122) -0.4%


Employment Data


Changes in Employment for Under 30 Year Olds:2007-2009

Educational Attainment 2007 2009 Absolute Change

Relative Change

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 6,297,895 4,762,075 (1,535,820) -24.4%

H.S. Graduates 10,369,612 9,071,741 (1,297,871) -12.5%

Some College 9,227,115 8,889,723 (337,392) -3.7%

Associate's Degree 2,720,353 2,597,128 (123,225) -4.5%

Bachelor's Degree 6,262,945 6,239,890 (23,055) -0.4%


Total 36,236,653 32,962,276 (3,274,377) -9.0%


Changes in Employment for 30-64 Year Olds:


Absolute Change

Relative Change

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 9,144,359 8,313,317 (831,042) -9.1%

H.S. Graduates 30,518,990 28,552,359 (1,966,631) -6.4%

Some College 18,132,381 17,028,171 (1,104,210) -6.1%




Total 104,380,924 100,753,625 (3,627,299) -3.5%


Changes in Employment for Under 30 Year Olds:2009-2011


Relative Change

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 4,762,075 4,292,320 (469,755) -9.9%

H.S. Graduates 9,071,741 8,882,257 (189,484) -2.1%

Some College 8,889,723 9,028,325 138,602 1.6%




Total 32,962,276 32,772,990 (189,286) -0.6%


Changes in Employment for 30-64 Year Olds:


Absolute Change

Relative Change

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 8,313,317 8,057,340 (255,977) -3.1%

H.S. Graduates 28,552,359 27,980,921 (571,438) -2.0%

Some College 17,028,171 16,743,029 (285,142) -1.7%




Total 100,753,625 100,620,752 (132,873) -0.1%


Unemployment Data


Changes in Unemployment for Under 30 Year Olds:2007-2009


Relative Change

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 1,165,324 1,662,102 496,778 42.6%

H.S. Graduates 1,132,769 2,022,969 890,200 78.6%

Some College 609,576 1,200,838 591,262 97.0%

Associate's Degree 115,003 263,183 148,180 128.8%

Bachelor's Degree 229,735 439,799 210,064 91.4%

M.A. or Higher Degree 37,446 72,806 35,360 94.4%

Total 3,289,853 5,661,697 2,371,844 72.1%


Changes in Unemployment for 30-64 Year Olds:


Absolute Change

Relative Change

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 673,619 1,364,529 690,910 102.6%

H.S. Graduates 1,299,653 2,930,666 1,631,013 125.5%

Some College 685,185 1,534,911 849,726 124.0%


Bachelor's Degree 507,295 1,242,237 734,942 144.9%


Total 3,694,079 8,304,238 4,610,159 124.8%


Changes in Unemployment for Under 30 Year Olds:2009-2011


Relative Change

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 1,662,102 1,467,423 (194,679) -11.7%

H.S. Graduates 2,022,969 1,984,312 (38,657) -1.9%

Some College 1,200,838 1,208,782 7,944 0.7%


Bachelor's Degree 439,799 429,427 (10,372) -2.4%


Total 5,661,697 5,440,917 (220,780) -3.9%


Changes in Unemployment for 30-64 Year Olds:


Absolute Change

Relative Change

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 1,364,529 1,296,957 (67,572) -5.0%

H.S. Graduates 2,930,666 2,760,740 (169,926) -5.8%

Some College 1,534,911 1,508,749 (26,162) -1.7%



M.A. or Higher Degree 463,445 442,488 (20,957) -4.5%

Total 8,304,238 7,949,989 (354,249) -4.3%


Data on People Working Part-Time for

Economic Reasons


Changes in People Working Part-Time for Economic Reasons for Under 30 Year

Olds:2007-2009Educational Attainment 2007 2009

Absolute Change

Relative Change

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 418,936 617,638 198,702 47.4%

H.S. Graduates 661,608 1,177,102 515,494 77.9%

Some College 356,513 690,014 333,501 93.5%




Total 1,674,627 3,005,068 1,330,441 79.4%



Relative Change

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 560,899 1,166,026 605,127 107.9%

H.S. Graduates 928,756 2,035,234 1,106,478 119.1%

Some College 429,426 949,403 519,977 121.1%




Total 2,621,482 5,668,682 3,047,200 116.2%

Changes in People Working Part-Time for Economic Reasons for 30-64 Year Olds:

2007-2009



Relative Change

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 617,638 534,764 (82,874) -13.4%

H.S. Graduates 1,177,102 1,223,713 46,611 4.0%

Some College 690,014 778,576 88,562 12.8%




Total 3,005,068 3,101,960 96,892 3.2%

Changes in People Working Part-Time for Economic Reasons for Under 30 Year

Olds:2009-2011



Relative Change

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 1,166,026 1,016,051 (149,975) -12.9%

H.S. Graduates 2,035,234 1,800,891 (234,343) -11.5%

Some College 949,403 878,545 (70,858) -7.5%

Associate's Degree 533,060 527,097 (5,963) -1.1%

Bachelor's Degree 699,131 682,775 (16,356) -2.3%


Total 5,668,682 5,217,570 (451,112) -8.0%

Changes in People Working Part-Time for Economic Reasons for 30-64 Year Olds:

2009-2011


Labor Force Reserves Data


Changes in Labor Force Reserves for Under 30 Year Olds: 2007-2009


Relative Change

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 877,660 957,738 80,078 9.1%

H.S. Graduates 492,591 640,983 148,392 30.1%

Some College 345,547 442,601 97,054 28.1%




Total 1,879,331 2,276,192 396,861 21.1%


Changes in Labor Force Reserves for 30-64 Year Olds:


Absolute Change

Relative Change

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 367,114 462,059 94,945 25.9%

H.S. Graduates 678,989 885,178 206,189 30.4%

Some College 348,420 479,685 131,265 37.7%




Total 1,941,697 2,572,979 631,282 32.5%


Changes in Labor Force Reserves for Under 30 Year Olds: 2009-2011


Relative Change

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 957,738 966,720 8,982 0.9%

H.S. Graduates 640,983 706,064 65,081 10.2%

Some College 442,601 516,421 73,820 16.7%

Associate's Degree 85,107 84,978 (129) -0.2%


M.A. or Higher Degree 25,011 23,778 (1,233) -4.9%

Total 2,276,192 2,429,224 153,032 6.7%


Changes in Labor Force Reserves for 30-64 Year Olds:


Absolute Change

Relative Change

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 462,059 496,871 34,812 7.5%

H.S. Graduates 885,178 974,573 89,395 10.1%

Some College 479,685 521,237 41,552 8.7%




Total 2,572,979 2,811,124 238,145 9.3%


Labor Force Underutilized Pool


Changes in Labor Force Underutilized Pool for Under 30 Year Olds:


Absolute Change

Relative Change

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 2,461,920 3,237,478 775,558 31.5%

H.S. Graduates 2,286,968 3,841,054 1,554,086 68.0%

Some College 1,311,636 2,333,453 1,021,817 77.9%




Total 6,843,811 10,942,957 4,099,146 59.9%


Changes in Labor Force Underutilized Pool for 30-64 Year Olds:


Absolute Change

Relative Change

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 1,601,632 2,992,614 1,390,982 86.8%

H.S. Graduates 2,907,398 5,851,078 2,943,680 101.2%

Some College 1,463,031 2,963,999 1,500,968 102.6%

Associate's Degree 699,916 1,514,625 814,709 116.4%

Bachelor's Degree 1,123,914 2,315,607 1,191,693 106.0%


Total 8,257,258 16,545,899 8,288,641 100.4%


Changes in Labor Force Underutilized Pool for Under 30 Year Olds:


Absolute Change

Relative Change

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 3,237,478 2,968,907 (268,571) -8.3%

H.S. Graduates 3,841,054 3,914,089 73,035 1.9%

Some College 2,333,453 2,503,779 170,326 7.3%




Total 10,942,957 10,972,101 29,144 0.3%


Changes in Labor Force Underutilized Pool for 30-64 Year Olds:


Absolute Change

Relative Change

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 2,992,614 2,809,879 (182,735) -6.1%

H.S. Graduates 5,851,078 5,536,204 (314,874) -5.4%

Some College 2,963,999 2,908,531 (55,468) -1.9%




Total 16,545,899 15,978,683 (567,216) -3.4%


E/P Ratios


Educational Attainment 2007 2009 2011

<12 or 12, No H.S. Diploma 37.9 29.8 27.4H.S. Graduates 68.7 60.0 59.0Some College 66.4 61.1 59.4Associate's Degree 81.0 76.6 74.6Bachelor's Degree 84.2 80.8 80.1M.A. or Higher Degree 86.0 82.4 82.5Total 62.5 56.4 55.3

E/P Ratios for Under 30 Year Olds by Educational Attainment


E/P Ratios for 30-64 Year Olds by Educational Attainment




Unemployment Rates




Unemployment Rate for Under 30 Year Olds by Educational Attainment


Unemployment Rate for 30-64 Year Olds by Educational Attainment




Labor Force Underutilization Rates




Labor Force Underutilization Rates for Under 30 Year Olds by Educational

Attainment


Labor Force Underutilization Rates for 30-64 Year Olds by Educational

AttainmentEducational Attainment 2007 2009 2011



Percent of Unemployed Who Were Unemployed for Less than 27 Weeks




Percent of Unemployed Who Were Unemployed for Less than 27 Weeks for

Under 30 Year Olds by Educational Attainment




Percent of Unemployed Who Were Unemployed for Less than 27 Weeks for

30-64 Year Olds by Educational Attainment


Percent of Unemployed Who Were Unemployed

for 27-51 Weeks




Percent of Unemployed Who Were Unemployed for

27-51 Weeks for Under 30 Year Olds by Educational Attainment





27-51 Weeks for 30-64 Year Olds by Educational Attainment


Percent of Unemployed Who Were Unemployed for More Than One Year





More Than One Year for Under 30 Year Olds by Educational Attainment





More Than One Year for 30-64 Year Olds by Educational Attainment


Percent of Unemployed Who Were Permanently

Unemployed




Percent of Unemployed Who Were Permanently Unemployed for Under 30 Year Olds by Educational Attainment




Percent of Unemployed Who Were Permanently Unemployed for 30-64 Year

Olds by Educational Attainment


Labor Force Participation Rate




Labor Force Participation Rate for Under 30 Year Olds by Educational Attainment




Labor Force Participation Rate for 30-64 Year Olds by Educational Attainment


Mal Employment andMean Annual Earnings


Mean Annual Earnings of 20-29 Year Old Employed Males, by Level of Educational Attainment in the U.S.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Current Population Survey, Public Use Data Files, Tabulations by Center for Labor Markets and Policy, Drexel University

Time PeriodHigh School

Diploma/GED Bachelor's Master's

Ratio of Bachelor's to High School

Only

Ratio of Master's To Bachelor’s

1991-1993 $25850 $37343 $43307 1.44 1.16

1998-2000 28507 48169 55093 1.69 1.14

2001-2003 28597 45004 58369 1.57 1.30

2007-2009 25936 43943 57365 1.69 1.31


Education Not CLM Occ CLM Occ

Associate's Degree $22,635 $36,560

Bachelor's Degree $28,187 $44,288

M.A. or Higher Degree $40,709 $51,646

Mean Annual Earnings of All Under 30 Years Old Workers, 2007 (March 2008), Excl. Students < 25 at the Time of the

Survey


Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree M.A. or Higher Degree $-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$22,635

$28,187

$40,709 $36,560

$44,288

$51,646

Mean Annual Earnings of All Under 30 Years Old Workers, 2007 (March

2008), Excl. Students < 25 at the Time of the Survey

Not CLM OccCLM Occ






Mean Annual Earnings of All 30-to-64 Years Old Workers, 2007 (March 2008), Excl. Students < 25 at the Time of the

Survey



$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

$33,297 $42,321 $44,259

$51,612

$73,572

$95,080

Mean Annual Earnings of All 30-to-64 Years Old Workers, 2007 (March


Not CLM OccCLM Occ







Survey



$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$23,375

$28,593 $26,682

$34,805

$44,353

$58,141

Mean Annual Earnings of All Under 30 Years Old Workers, 2009 (March


Not CLM Occ

CLM Occ



Survey







$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$32,565 $40,721

$49,118 $51,487

$71,808

$97,196

Mean Annual Earnings of All 30-to-64 Years Old Workers,

2009 (March 2010), Excl. Students < 25 at the Time of

the SurveyNot CLM OccCLM Occ







Survey



$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$22,813 $28,125

$31,334 $35,913

$45,721

$54,946

Mean Annual Earnings of All Under 30 Years Old Workers,


the Survey Not CLM OccCLM Occ



Survey







$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$36,379

$45,673

$54,229 $54,264

$77,440

$98,791

Mean Annual Earnings of All 30-to-64 Years Old Workers,


the Survey Not CLM OccCLM Occ


Mal Employment



Associate's Degree 2,446,571 2,492,910 2,745,205

Bachelor's Degree 6,159,711 6,307,981 6,075,605

M.A. or Higher Degree 1,514,938 1,386,787 1,308,469

Total 10,121,220 10,187,678 10,129,278

All Under 30 Years Old Workers, Excl. Students < 25 at the Time of the Survey



Associate's Degree 11,658,815 11,492,934 10,679,112

Bachelor's Degree 23,810,534 23,798,322 21,864,214

M.A. or Higher Degree 14,154,590 13,989,911 12,982,032

Total 49,623,940 49,281,167 45,525,359

All 30-to-64 Years Old Workers, Excl. Students < 25 at the Time of the Survey


Educational Attainment

Not CLM Occ CLM Occ Total

% of Total CLM Occs

Associate's Degree 1,327,206 1,119,365 2,446,571 46%

Bachelor's Degree 2,050,093 4,109,618 6,159,711 67%

M.A. or Higher Degree 169,019 1,345,919 1,514,938 89%

Total 3,546,318 6,574,902 10,121,220 65%

All Under 30 Years Old Workers, 2007 (March 2008), Excl. Students < 25 at the Time of the Survey




% of Total

CLM Occs



M.A. or Higher Degree 1,552,007 12,602,584 14,154,590 89%

Total 13,690,363 35,933,576 49,623,940 72%

All 30-to-64 Years Old Workers, 2007 (March 2008), Excl. Students < 25 at the Time of the Survey




% of Total CLM Occs




Total 3,778,848 6,408,830 10,187,678 63%

All Under 30 Years Old Workers, 2009 (March 2010), Excl. Students < 25 at

the Time of the Survey




% of Total CLM Occs




Total 13,669,563 35,611,605 49,281,167 72%

All 30-to-64 Years Old Workers, 2009 (March 2010), Excl. Students < 25 at the

Time of the Survey




% of Total CLM Occs




Total 3,973,948 6,155,330 10,129,278 61%

All Under 30 Years Old Workers, 2010 (March 2011), Excl. Students < 25 at





% of Total CLM Occs




Total 12,727,032 32,798,327 45,525,359 72%

All 30-to-64 Years Old Workers, 2010 (March 2011), Excl. Students < 25 at



Economic Outlook


What’s the Economic Outlook for 2012?

December of 2010, consensus was that 2011 would see GDP growthof 3.5% to 4.0%--$400 Billion Stim II including:• extended UI • payroll tax relief• capital investment tax relief• quantitative easing II

GDP growth during first 3 quarters of 2011 was at about 1 percentannual pace

• Oil price increases diminished impact of tax cuts and UI• Tsunami and nuclear disaster caused disruptions in auto and electronics manufacturing industries• Sovereign debt crisis in Europe

All of these ‘shock’ factors shaved points off economic growth in U.S.But 2011 IV seems to have finally shaken off these problems and growthseems more robust… will this continue?


World Bank Forecasts Are Pessimistic—Expect Sluggish Growth

U.S.GDP expected to grow by 2.2% during 2012, up from 1.7%

European area thought to be in recession now, negative growthnext year

Slowing economic growth in mid-income countries including Eastand South Asia

All of this means slowdown in export and import activity—slowingworld economic growth


U.S. Outlook— A Liquidity Trap, Money on the Sidelines

De-leveraging by U.S. households may be slowing as at least some analysts think housing markets may have hit bottom of steep crater

Federal Reserve Operation Twist—worked to lower long-term interest rates, providing additional support to housing markets. Commitment to low rates through foreseeable future

Surprisingly, Congress passed a third stimulus program in December that just renewed in February worth about $300 billion

Uncertainty played a key role in inhibiting economic growth during 2011 and may play that role again—rising gas prices. Estimated $3 trillion held in idle reserves by U.S. business—bonds, savings, cash—essentially zero interest rate

If oil prices fall as expected and housing prices are near the bottom, then we can get better growth during 2012—not a boom year, but not scraping along the bottom as we did in 2011—Can we restore confidence?

2013, increased chances of recession associated with fiscal drag. Bush tax cuts end, temp UI and payroll tax programs end, Budget ‘Sequestration’ of $100 billion in domestic discretionary spending


2000 2010

Absolute Change

Relative Change

Non-agriculture wage and salary 132,425.0 130,435.6 -1,989.4 -1.5%Goods-producing, excluding agriculture

24,569.7 17,705.5-6,864.2 -27.9%

Mining 520.4 655.9 135.5 26.0%Construction 6,786.4 5,525.6 -1,260.8 -18.6%Manufacturing 17,262.9 11,524.0 -5,738.9 -33.2%Services-providing 107,855.3 112,730.1

4,874.8 4.5%Utilities 601.3 551.8 -49.5 -8.2%Wholesale trade 5,933.5 5,456.1 -477.4 -8.0%Retail trade 15,279.8 14,413.7 -866.1 -5.7%Transportation and warehousing 4,410.3 4,183.3 -227.0 -5.1%Information 3,630.6 2,710.9 -919.7 -25.3%Financial activities 7,687.5 7,630.2 -57.3 -0.7%Professional and business services 16,666.1 16,688.0 21.9 0.1%Educational services 2,390.6 3,149.6 759.0 31.7%Health care and social assistance 12,718.3 16,414.5 3,696.2 29.1%Leisure and hospitality 11,861.6 13,019.6 1,158.0 9.8%Other services 5,885.7 6,031.3 145.6 2.5%Federal government 2,865.0 2,968.0 103.0 3.6%State and local government 17,925.0 19,513.1 1,588.1 8.9%

Trends in Non Farm Payroll Employment 2000 to 2010


2010 2020Absolute Change

Relative Change

Non-agriculture wage and salary130,435.6 150,176.8 19,741.2 15.1%

Goods-producing, excluding agriculture 17,705.5 19,496.8 1,791.3 10.1%Mining 655.9 680.7 24.8 3.8%Construction 5,525.6 7,365.1 1,839.5 33.3%Manufacturing 11,524.0 11,450.9 -73.1 -0.6%Services-providing

112,730.1 130,680.1 17,950.0 15.9%Utilities 551.8 516.1 -35.7 -6.5%Wholesale trade 5,456.1 6,200.2 744.1 13.6%Retail trade 14,413.7 16,182.2 1,768.5 12.3%Transportation and warehousing 4,183.3 5,036.2 852.9 20.4%Information 2,710.9 2,851.2 140.3 5.2%Financial activities 7,630.2 8,410.6 780.4 10.2%Professional and business services 16,688.0 20,497.0 3,809.0 22.8%Educational services 3,149.6 3,968.8 819.2 26.0%Health care and social assistance 16,414.5 22,053.9 5,639.4 34.4%Leisure and hospitality 13,019.6 14,362.3 1,342.7 10.3%Other services 6,031.3 6,850.7 819.4 13.6%Federal government 2,968.0 2,596.0 -372.0 -12.5%State and local government 19,513.1 21,154.8 1,641.7 8.4%

Projections of Non Farm Payroll Employment By Industry, 2010 to 2020



Relative Change

Total 143068.2 163537.1 20468.9 14.3%Managerial 8776.1 9391.9 615.8 7.0%Business-finance 6789.2 7961.7 1172.5 17.3%Computer Math 3542.8 7321.1 3778.3 106.6%Engineering- Arch 2433.4 2686.2 252.8 10.4%

Life, Physical, Social Science 1228.8 1419.6 190.8 15.5%Community and Social Service 2402.7 2985 582.3 24.2%Legal Occs 1211.9 1342.9 131 10.8%Education Training 9193.6 10597.3 1403.7 15.3%Art Design Ent 2708.5 3021 312.5 11.5%Health Practitioner 7799.3 9819 2019.7 25.9%Heath Support 4190 5633.7 1443.7 34.5%Protective Serv 3302.5 3667 364.5 11.0%Food Prep 11150.3 12242.8 1092.5 9.8%Building-Grounds 5498.5 6162.5 664 12.1%Personal Care 4994.7 6331.4 1336.7 26.8%Sales Related 14915.6 16784.7 1869.1 12.5%Clerical 22602.5 24938.2 2335.7 10.3%Construction 6328 7735.2 1407.2 22.2%Installation-Mech 5428.6 6228.7 800.1 14.7%Production 8594.4 8951.2 356.8 4.2%Transportation 9004.8 10333.4 1328.6 14.8%

Projections of Employment by Major Occupation in the U.S.



Relative Change

Median Annual Earnings

Total 143068.2 163537.1 20468.9 14.3% $33,840 Doctoral Prof 4409.7 5286.3 876.6 19.9% 87500Master's 1986 2417.2 431.2 21.7% 60240Bachelor's 22171.1 25827.2 3656.1 16.5% 63430Associate's 7994.6 9436.6 1442 18.0% 61590Post Secondary Non Degree 6524 7624.9 1100.9 16.9% 34220

Some College, no Degree 811.6 953.8 142.2 17.5% 44350

High School only 62089.6 69665.7 7576.1 12.2% 34180Less than High school 37081.7 42327.4 5245.7 14.1% 20070

Projections of Employment by Typical Education Needed for Entry

Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Markets and Policy Drexel University

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Transcript of Paul E. Harrington Center for Labor Markets and Policy Drexel University