Centazzo Media, Advertising And Consumer Trends 2011
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Transcript of Centazzo Media, Advertising And Consumer Trends 2011
Consumer Behavior and Trends 2011
Media and Advertising Snapshot
Troy K. Centazzo
Print Advertisements in Newspapers and Magazines; Short and Long-Form Commercials and Sponsorships on Radio and Television; Billboards and Signs; Public Relations; Direct Mail and Catalogs; Tiny Classified Ads;
Network Marketing; Trade Shows and Conferences
The Ad Universe (Pre-Internet)
The Digital Ad / Marketing Universe (circa January 2011)
Enormous innovation: companies now have thousands of new tools to communicate
A result of robust, early stage sector investment
and capital efficient business models
Emerging Advertising /
Marketing Business Models
Data, Analytics, Optimization
Ad Networks (Currently Hundreds Exist)
Ad Exchanges
Ad Serving / Rich Media
Performance Advertising
Data Sources, Aggregators
Demand Side Platforms
Publisher Side Platforms
Mobile / Video Ads
Verification / Attribution
Media Buying Platforms
Consumers and “Traditional” Media – Drifting Apart?
Change in Average Time Spent Per Day with Media Types by US Adults
2009: -13.2%
2010: -9.1%
2009: -12.0%
2010: -9.1%
2009: -3.9%
2010: -2.0% 2009: +5.1%
2010: -1.1% Flat Over Last 5 Years
Source: eMarketer, Dec. 2010.
Includes Video
So What Are Those Consumers Spending Their Time Doing?
The Rapid Rise of Cell Phones (and now Tablets) in the US and Around the World
Sources: ITU World Telecommunications; Forrester Research, Inc.; Nielson; Forrester Research, Inc.
US = ͠͠100%
US = ͠͠45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Q4, 2008 Q4, 2009 Q4, 2010 Q4, 2011(E)
US Smartphone Penetration
Mobile Subscriptions per 100 Inhabitants (2000-10)
Projected Growth of Tablet Sales, US Adults
So What Are Consumers Spending Their Time Doing?
For the first time, Americans now spend as much time on the Internet
as they do watching TV (13 hours per week)*
Share of Time Spent on Internet (2010)
(on PCs and Laptops)
Social Networks / Blogs:
22.7%, up 43% from 2009
Games:
10.2%, up 10%
from 2009
Email:
8.3%, down
28% from 2009
* Note: A recent meta-study by eMarketer concluded that US adults spent 40% of their time with media watching TV and 24% on the
Internet. Sources: The Nielson Company; eMarketer (2010).
Up 121% Over Last 5 Years 45% Have a DVR
So What Are Those Consumers Spending Their Time Doing?
Time spent on mobile devices – increasingly smartphones and tablets –
is rising the fastest compared to other media
Sources: eMarketer (2010); Falaki, Hossein et al. 2010. Diversity in Smartphone Usage. MobiSys’10
21.9% 28.2% 40.0%
2009 2010 2011 (E)
Change in Time Spent Using Mobile Devices Over Prior Year
Share of Time Spent on Smartphones (US & UK)
Research Has Shown Much Diversity:
• 50% of time spent keeping in touch with
others (email, text, phone calls)
• 20% - media (music, videos, pictures)
and games)
• 12% browsing the internet
• 2% on “productive” activities
What the %$#* Just Happened?
Newspapers in
Distress (2008-10)
Double digit
revenue declines
projected in 2011
Freedom
Communications
(dozens of papers)
Bankruptcy, 2009
Philly Daily News; LA
Times, Chicago
Tribune
Bankruptcy, 2009
Rocky Mountain News Closed, 2009
Seattle Post-
Intelligencer;
Minneapolis Star
Tribune
Bankruptcy, 2009
Boston Globe Distressed sale
process, 2009
McLatchy (29 papers)
Severe cost cuts
Magazines in
Distress (2008-10)
Country Home,
Hallmark, Travel
& Leisure, Best
Life, Blender,
Vibe, Domino
Folded
613 magazines
folded in 2008;
383 in 2009; and
127 in Q1 – Q3,
2010
Radio in Distress
(2008-10)
Atlantic, Regent,
Air America
Bankruptcy, 2010
Citadel,
NextMedia
Bankruptcy, 2009
Tribune Bankruptcy, 2008
TV in Distress
(2008-10)
NBC Univ.; Gems
TV
Sale, 2010 ;
Bankruptcy
Equity Media;
Young;
Bankruptcy, 2009
Pappas; Tribune Bankruptcy, 2008
Misc. Media in
Distress (2008-10)
Blockbuster Bankruptcy, 9/10
Affiliated Media Bankruptcy, 1/10
American Media Bankruptcy, 11/10
Local Insight Media Bankruptcy, 11/10
SuperMedia Bankruptcy, 2009
Recent Carnage Across the Traditional Media Industry
Source: Media Finder, Growthink research.
Advertisers Have (Partially) Responded to These Rapid Changes
• 2010 brought a recovery to the advertising and public relations sectors, which is
expected to continue through 2011
• $300 billion in US and $500 billion worldwide (5% growth in 2011)
• 2/3 of PR agencies reported double digit growth in 2010
• Online increased to $25.8B, equaling spend on print for the first time
• Facebook ad spend equaled $1.86B ($1.2B in US and $.65 outside US)
52%
24%
23%
1%
US Ad Spend (2010)
Television
Online
Newpaper
Sources: eMarketer (Dec, 2010);
About the Author
Troy is an Engagement Partner at GT Securities/Growthink, where he leads investment banking and consulting engagements for the firm’s clients. He focuses on convergence media. Troy brings to GT more than 20 years of experience advising corporations at all stages of development, from start-up firms to Fortune 500 companies.
Troy joins Growthink’s Los Angeles office after serving as the founding Principal of MBL, an advisory and investment firm that assisted clients in all areas of business, including developing their strategies and raising capital. Also a seasoned entrepreneur, he helped found, manage and invest in several start-up companies, primarily in the consumer products, technology and New Media sectors while at and before MBL. Troy additionally worked as an Associate in the Investment Banking and Merchant Banking Divisions at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette (DLJ, now CS First Boston). His first job after college was serving as the founding Director of the RI Enterprise Zone Program. Education • JD, Law School; MBA, Darden School, University of Virginia (Winner, The Faculty Award; Raven Society) • BA, Brown University (Honors; Class Co-President)
Troy Centazzo Engagement Partner
Digital Media Expert
Contact:
Cell: (202) 369-2188