CC6052 Lecture Wk04 Decisions 2012
Transcript of CC6052 Lecture Wk04 Decisions 2012
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Week 4
Management and decision-making (2)
Management roles and functions
Categories of management decisions
Support required from MSS
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Management decision-making
◦ nature of decisions made by business managers
Business strategy ◦ introduction to some strategic planning techniques
Consequences for management decision-making ◦ how can strategic planning inform key management
decisions?
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Room not big enough!
People sitting in the aisles
◦ Health & Safety Problem
Solution required...
◦ redistribute attendance between days?
not popular
◦ move to main lecture theatre in same building?
already booked
◦ find another lecture room in another building?
nothing free at the same time
◦ change time and lecture room?
success! 3
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CC6052 Assignment: Management Report
Group components (40%)
Title and contents
Management summary
1. Introduction
2. Organisation chart
3. Data cleansing
4. ODDS MSS database Design
5. Use of feedback
6. Group critique
7. Individual contributions
8. Software implementation environment
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CC6052 Assignment: Management Report
Individual components (60%)
9. Selected management decision
10.Data and information requirements
11.Technical design
12.Test plan and results
13.Outline solution
14.References
15.Software with printouts
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Management ◦ functions, roles, levels, productivity
Decisions ◦ categories, disciplines, cognitive style, etc.
Decision-making ◦ theory, phases, approaches, models
Data and information ◦ types, sources, processes, value, characteristics
Support for management decision-making
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communication
command coordinate
control
plan
organise
Fayol’s five functions of management
Classical model: Fayol (1916)
see: http://www.provenmodels.com/3
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Management: functions
Behavioural model
Based on observations of what managers actually do
and this indicates that managers are
less systematic, reflective, well-organised
and
more informal, reactive, frivolous
than the classical model suggests
(Laudon & Laudon, 2004)
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Management: roles
Mintzberg (1971, 1980, 1993) identified 10 roles:
Interpersonal
◦ figurehead, leader, liaison
Informational
◦ monitor, disseminator, spokesperson
Decisional
◦ entrepreneur, disturbance handler,
resource allocator, negotiator
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Management: levels
Strategic
Determines long-term
objectives, resources and
policies of the organisation
Tactical Concerned with efficient and
effective use of resources in
achieving objectives
Operational Carrying out specific day-to-day
tasks, transactions 10
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“Management is a process by which
organisational goals are achieved
through the use of resources” (Turban, 2001)
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Management: productivity (1)
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Management: productivity (2)
If resources = inputs
and
attainment of goals = outputs
then
Success of organisation (and a manager’s job)
=
Outputs / Inputs
=
Attainment of goals / Resources
=
Productivity 12
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Assessing productivity using performance
measurement - consider two dimensions:
◦ Effectiveness
◦ Efficiency
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Management: productivity (3)
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Management: productivity (4)
Effectiveness
the degree to which goals are achieved
i.e. “doing the right thing”
Efficiency
a measure of the use of resources to achieve
these goals
i.e. “doing the thing right” 14
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Decisions: categories (1)
Levels (or type of control): decisions can be
◦ Strategic
unstructured, long-term, large impact, infrequent
◦ Tactical
semi-structured, medium-term, medium impact, not uncommon
between the two extremes of strategic and operational
◦ Operational
structured, short-term, small impact, frequent
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Decisions: categories (2)
Type of decision:
Unstructured (or non-programmable)
fuzzy, complex problem for which no clear solution procedure
exists
Semi-structured
between the two extremes; i.e. some structured elements and
some unstructured elements
Structured (or programmable)
standard procedures for obtaining the best (or good enough)
solution are known 16
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Decisions: categories (3)
Decisions can be made in the face of:
Uncertainty
◦ Several possible outcomes for each course of action
◦ Decision-maker does not know (and cannot estimate) probabilities
Risk
◦ Decision-maker must consider several possible outcomes for each
course of action
◦ Probabilities of given outcomes are known or can be estimated
Certainty
◦ Assumes full and complete knowledge is available
◦ Decision-maker knows the outcome of each course of action 17
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Decisions: cognitive styles, etc.
“Cognitive style is the subjective process through
which people
perceive,
organise and
change information
during the decision-making process.” (Turban, 2001)
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Decisions: cognitive styles, etc.
Need to consider varying cognitive styles
Compare systematic versus…
…intuitive decision-makers
(Laudon & Laudon, 2004)
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Making Decisions
Tempting to assume a ‘rational model’ of
decision making behaviour
◦ “people engage in basically
consistent,
rational,
value-maximising calculations.”
(Laudon & Laudon, 2004)
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Making Decisions
But…
people cannot specify all options...
people do not have singular goals, many decisions are too complex...
people select the first option that moves them towards their ultimate goal or adopt a policy that is most like the previous policy...
decision-making is a continuous process…
decisions are often made by consensus...
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Decisions and management (1)
Turban (2001): “According to Simon (1977),
managerial decision-making is synonymous with
the whole process of management.”
management "=" decision-making
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Decisions and management (2)
“A problem occurs when a system does not meet
its established goals… or does not work as
planned.
Problem solving may also deal with identifying
new opportunities”
problem solving decision making
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Decision-making: theory
Decision-making involves selecting the correct
(or best available) action from a series of choices
The business rules governing the correct action may be complex;
diagrams and tables help
◦ Flow charts
◦ Decision trees
◦ Decision tables
◦ Structured English, etc.
Only useful for the structured elements of a decision...
(Chaffey, 2003)
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Decision-making: consider the following (sequence of) decisions
A product (toaster )is passed as fit for sale if it passes:
◦ a mechanical test (slices can be lowered and raised)
and
◦ an electrical test (it heats the bread)
and
◦ has the correct dimensions (the slices fit the slots)
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Decision-making: consider the following (sequence of) decisions
If it fails either the mechanical test
or the electrical test (but not both),
it is sent back to the workshop for repair
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Decision-making: consider the following (sequence of) decisions
In all other cases, the product is rejected
as it would be too expensive to repair
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Decision-making: consider the following (sequence of) decisions
There are three tests
mechanical test
electrical test
correct dimensions
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Dimensions
OK?
Mech. test
OK?
Mech. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Accept
Repair
Repair
Reject
Reject
Reject
Reject
Reject
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
Decision tree...
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Decision table
X
X X
X
Correct dimensions?
Passed mechanical test?
Passed electrical test?
Accept product
Repair product
Reject product
Y Y Y Y N N N N
Y Y N N Y Y N N
Y N Y N Y N Y N
X X X X
Each action in the decision table is equivalent to a terminal node in the decision tree:
1 accept
2 repair
5 remaining actions reject
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Mech. test
OK?
Mech. test
OK?
Elec test
OK?
Accept
Repair
Repair
Reject
Reject
Reject
Reject
Reject
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
Decision tree... OK to have questions in a different order
Dimensions
OK?
Dimensions
OK?
Dimensions
OK?
Dimensions
OK? 31
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Mech. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Accept
Repair
Repair
Reject
Reject
Reject
Reject
Reject
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
Dimensions
OK?
Dimensions
OK?
Decision tree... OK to have questions in a different order
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Dimensions
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Accept
Repair
Repair
Reject
Reject
Reject
Reject
Reject
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
Decision tree... OK to have questions in a different order
Mech. test
OK?
Mech. test
OK?
Mech. test
OK?
Mech. test
OK? 33
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Decision trees & decision tables
Decision trees
enable all possible options to be considered
Decision tables
enable all possible options to be considered
Decision trees and decision tables
equivalent to one another
each column in the table matches a path in the tree
different forms of representation
can be “pruned” to remove redundancy 34
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Dimensions
OK?
Mech. test
OK?
Mech. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Accept
Repair
Repair
Reject
Reject
Reject
Reject
Reject
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
Decision tree... (original)
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Decision table
X
X X
X
Correct dimensions?
Passed mechanical test?
Passed electrical test?
Accept product
Repair product
Reject product
Y Y Y Y N N N N
Y Y N N Y Y N N
Y N Y N Y N Y N
X X X X
Each action in the decision table is equivalent to a terminal node in the decision tree:
1 accept
2 repair
5 remaining actions reject
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Dimensions
OK?
Mech. test
OK?
Mech. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Accept
Repair
Repair
Reject
Reject
Reject
Reject
Reject
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
Decision tree...
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Decision table
X
X X
X
Correct dimensions?
Passed mechanical test?
Passed electrical test?
Accept product
Repair product
Reject product
Y Y Y Y N N N N
Y Y N N Y Y N N
Y N Y N Y N Y N
X X X X
Each action in the decision table is equivalent to a terminal node in the decision tree:
1 accept
2 repair
5 remaining actions reject
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Dimensions
OK?
Mech. test
OK?
Mech. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Accept
Repair
Repair
Reject
Reject
Reject
Reject
Reject
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
Decision tree...
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Decision table
X
X X
X
Correct dimensions?
Passed mechanical test?
Passed electrical test?
Accept product
Repair product
Reject product
Y Y Y Y N N N N
Y Y N N Y Y N N
Y N Y N Y N Y N
X X X X
Each action in the decision table is equivalent to a terminal node in the decision tree:
1 accept
2 repair
5 remaining actions reject
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Decision tree: removing redundancy
Dimensions
OK?
Mech. test
OK?
Mech. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Elec. test
OK?
Accept
Repair
Repair
Reject
Reject
Reject
Reject
Reject
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
No
Reject If dimensions are wrong, we don’t need mechanical & electrical tests: just reject
A single
line with
“No”
replaces
this part of
the tree 41
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Y Y N N N Y N N -
Decision table: removing redundancy
X
X X
X
Correct dimensions?
Passed electrical test?
Passed mechanical test?
Accept product
Repair product
Reject product
Y Y Y Y N N N N N
Y N Y N N N Y N -
X X X X
Each action in the decision table is equivalent to a terminal node in the decision tree:
1 accept
2 repair
5 remaining actions reject Now add “don’t care” condition (“-”) it doesn’t matter whether it is Y or N
If dimensions are wrong, we don’t need mechanical & electrical tests - just reject
X 42
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Decision table: components (1)
Correct dimensions?
Passed electrical test?
Passed mechanical test?
Accept product
Repair product
Reject product
1. Conditions
2. Actions
3. Number of rules = 2N
where N is the number
of conditions, i.e….
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Decision table: components (2)
Correct dimensions?
Passed electrical test?
Passed mechanical test?
Accept product
Repair product
Reject product
4. Condition entries
Y Y Y Y N N N N
Y Y N N Y Y N N
Y N Y N Y N Y N
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Decision table: components (3)
Correct dimensions?
Passed electrical test?
Passed mechanical test?
Accept product
Repair product
Reject product
5. Action entries
Y Y Y Y N N N N
Y Y N N Y Y N N
Y N Y N Y N Y N
X
X X
X X X X X
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Decision table: components (4)
Correct dimensions?
Passed electrical test?
Passed mechanical test?
Accept product
Repair product
Reject product
6. Redundancy identified and removed
(“-” = don’t care conditions)
Y Y Y Y N
Y Y N N -
Y N Y N -
X
X X
X X
Decision table with redundancy identified and removed
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Decision-making: phases
Intelligence
◦ Problem/Opportunity exists
◦ Decision must be made
Design
◦ Identify and examine possible solutions
Choice
◦ Rank solutions and select best option
Implementation… (do it!)
◦ ...and evaluate success of decision
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Decision-making: intelligence phase
Problem identification
Problem classification
Problem decomposition
Problem ownership
Problem statement
◦ identification and impact 48
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Decision-making: design phase
Trial and error
Modelling
◦ Simulation
◦ Goal-seeking
◦ Optimisation
◦ What-if? analysis
◦ Heuristics
◦ Like SSM…
(see Checkland)
Real-world problem
(physical)
Logical problem (model)
Logical solution (model)
Real-world solution
(physical)
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Decision-making: choice phase
Criteria of choice
Search for best option
(based on comparison with criteria of choice)
◦ Blind search - complete or partial
◦ Heuristic search
Search until you find a “good enough” solution
(known as satisficing)
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Decision-making: implementation phase
Test the solution
Is it working?
If not, may need to return to
design, choice or intelligence stage
Perhaps we are solving the “wrong” problem
Can it be improved?
Fine-tune the solution
Monitor progress
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Data and information: types, sources
Types of data: ◦ qualitative ◦ quantitative
Sources of data: ◦ internal ◦ external ◦ private
Information: ◦ data processed for a purpose ◦ reduces uncertainty about a situation
Managers need information to support their decision-making
i.e. any management decision will have associated ‘information needs’
(Chaffey, 2003)
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Data is processed to produce information
Examples of data processes: ◦ classification ◦ rearranging / sorting ◦ aggregating ◦ performing calculations ◦ selection ◦ exceptions ◦ presentation (graph / table / chart / diagram)
Information produced can be used to support decision-making
(Chaffey, 2003) 53
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Information is a resource with value for the manager and the organisation ◦ tangible value ◦ intangible value
As well as value, information comes at a cost:
Value of information - Cost of gathering information
or
Improvements in decision behaviour - Cost of gathering information
(Chaffey, 2003)
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Strategic ◦ Wide time period, infrequent, primarily external, less certain, wide in scope, summarised
Tactical ◦ Medium time/frequency/source/certainty/scope/detail between the two extremes
Operational ◦ Narrow time period, frequent, primarily internal, more certain, narrow in scope, detailed
Information supports decision-making at all levels in an organisation:
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Chaffey, D. (ed.), 2003, Business Information Systems, 2nd ed., FT
Prentice Hall
Laudon, K. & Laudon, J., 2004, Management Information Systems, 8th ed.,
Pearson Prentice Hall
Lucey, T., 2009, Management Information Systems, 10th ed., Continuum
Turban E. & Aronson J.E., 2001, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent
Systems (6th edition), Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Turban, E., Sharda, R., Delen, D., 2010, Decision Support and Business
Intelligence Systems, 9th edition, Pearson, ISBN-10 0132453231, ISBN-13
978-0132453233
Whiteley, D., 2004, Introduction to Information Systems, Palgrave
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