Causes of and a Solution to Global Warming

Mark Z. JacobsonAtmosphere/Energy Program

Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering

Stanford University

Intensive English and Academic Orientation Program

Stanford University, July 24, 2007

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Causes of Global Warming

Temperature Change Since 1750 (

o C)

Green-housegases

Fossil-fuelsoot

particles

Urbanheat

island

Coolingparticles

Netobserved

globalwarming

M.Z. Jacobson

Fractal Soot Agglomerates (Arrows) Coated by Ammonium

Sulfate

Pósfai et al. (1999)

10-yr Modeled Temperature Differences

w-w/o AGHG+AAP+US w-w/o AGHG

w-w/o ff. soot

w-w/o AAP

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor

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QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor

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Modeled v. Measured Temperature Diffs.

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor

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QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.Measured 1930 to 2005(Brohan et al.)

Modeled 1750 to 2005(simulation not complete)Many cool areas will warm in 5-10 simulation years

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2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Cooling (K) after eliminating anth. emiss.

Year

f.f. BC+OM

CO2(50y)

CH4(10y)

CO2(95y)

CO2(30y)

Global Temperature Changes Due to Eliminating Anthropogenic CO2, CH4, f.f. BC+OM Emission

Cooling (K) after eliminating

anthropogenic emission

Causal Effect of CO2 on Mortality

Global-regional nested simulations demonstrate that CO2 alone increases temperature, water vapor, ozone, and PM

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

U.S. ozone deaths/yr per 1 K +500 (190-575)U.S. PM2.5 death/yr per 1 K +640 (160-1280)U.S. Total deaths/yr per 1K +1140 (350-1855)

World Total deaths/yr per 1K +24,000 (7200-37,000)

Temperature Water vapor Ozone

-1 0 1

200400600800

1000

-1 0 1

a.ii) ( )Temperature K

( )Pressure hPaData

Model

Global Power Demand and Clean Renewable Supply

TWGlobal overall power demand

9.4-13.6

Potential renewable availability

Solar over land 1700Land-wind at 80 m and > 6.9

m/s 72a, 80b

Geothermal 9.5b

Hydroelectric 6.5b

Wave 5b

Tidal 3.7b

aArcher and Jacobson, 2005; bStacey and Davis, 2006

Installed Wind Capacity Worldwide

Country 2005 (MW) 2006 (MW) Germany 18,428

20,261Spain 10,027 11,615U.S. 9,149 11,603India 4,430 6,270Denmark 3,122 3,136

World 59,084 74,223(900 offshore)

Individual turbine ≈ 0.4 MW--> ≈ 150,000

turbines

Sources of U.S. CO2

Coalelectricity(30.4%)

Oilelectricity

(1.8%)

Natural gaselectricity

(7.3%)

Other(34.7%)

Onroadvehicles(25.8%)

2005 total6270 MT-CO

2

M.Z. Jacobson

Thousands of 5 MW Wind TurbinesNeeded to Displace 100% U.S. CO

2

Coalelectricity(120-160)

Oil electricity(7-10)

Natural gaselectricity(45-60)

Other(131-188)

Onroadvehicles(battery)(71-122)

Total (2005)374-540

M.Z. Jacobson

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Percent Decrease in Total U.S. Carbon DioxideUpon Replacing 100% of Onroad Vehicles

Ignoring land constraintsWith land constraints

Percent reduction in total U.S. CO

2 emissions

-23.4Solarfor

batteries

-25.5Wind

forhydrogen

fuelcells

-25.5Wind

forbatteries

-13.6Cellu-losic

ethanol

-0.62Corn

ethanol

-4

-0.19 Replacing 30% of vehicles

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

1 104

1.2 104

1.4 104

Future U.S. Deaths Per YearFrom Onroad Vehicle Emissions

U.S. Deaths per Year

Windfor

batteries

Cornethanol

Cellu-losic

ethanol

Solarfor

batteries

Windfor

hydrogenfuelcells

0 0

10,200

0

10,200

M.Z. Jacobson

10,000

Gas/diesel

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles

Map: www.fotw.net

Corn ethanol

Cellulosic ethanol

Wind-batteryturbine spacing

Solar-batteryWind-battery

ground contact

Archer and Jacobson (2005) www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/winds/

Mean 80-m Wind Speed in North America

Percent of Land+Near Shore Stations With Annual Wind Speeds

> 6.9 m/s at 80 mEurope

14.2North America

19.0United States over land

15.0United States over land+near shore

17.0South America

9.7Oceania

21.2Africa

4.6Asia

2.7Antarctica

60Global over land

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Archer and Jacobson (2005)

Aggregate Wind Power (MW) From 81% of

Spain’s Grid Versus Time of Day, Oct. 26, 2005

Birds and WindU.S. bird deaths from current wind turbines 10,000-40,000/yr (!)U.S. bird deaths from communication towers: 50 million/yr (!)Worldwide bird deaths from avian flu: 200 million/yr (%)

Est. bird deaths with 2,500,000 turbines worldwide: 2.5-10 million/yr

Premature U.S. deaths fossil-/biofuel pollution: 50,000/yr (*)

The effect of wind turbines on birds will be small relative to the benefit of reducing fossil-biofuels on human and animal illness.

(!) Bird Conservancy (April 2006); (%) San Jose Mercury News (April 2006)(*) McCubbin and Delucchi (1999)

Path to Satisfy All U.S. Energy Needsand Reduce CO

2 and BC by 80%

Onshore &offshore wind

(50%)

Solar PV& thermal

(15%)

Efficiency(10%)

Hydroelectricgeothermalwave, tidalexistingnuclear(5%)

Existingfossil, biofuels

(20%)

M.Z. Jacobson

Land Area For 50% of US Energy From Wind

Map: www.fotw.net

Turbinearea

touchingground

Spacingbetweenturbines

Alternatively, Water Area For 50% of US Energy From Wind

Map: www.fotw.net

Spacingbetweenturbines

Dvorak et al. (2006)

<50 m deep

<20 m deep

2645 MW capacity (529 5 MW turbines), capacity factor of 42%Yields 5.9 TWh/yr (8.2% of California’s carbon electricity)Requires about 28 km (18 mi) or 2.1% of California’s 840 mi coast.

529 REpower5.0M turbines

Eureka Wind Park Example (Preliminary)

Dvorak et al. (2007)

SummaryGlobal warming will hasten as aerosol pollution decreases.

CO2 increases air pollution mortality due to its effect on temperature, water vapor, and atmospheric stability, which increase ozone and particulate matter in urban areas.

80% reductions in current emissions are needed to stabilize CO2. Corn ethanol cannot practically reduce CO2 in the U.S. by more than 0.07-0.2%; cellulosic ethanol cannot reduce CO2 by more than 1.3-4%, based on current understanding.

FF soot appears to cause about 13% (0.24 K) of the 1.9 K increase in temperatures due to AGHG+FF soot+urban surfaces. Its complete removal may eliminate about 30% of the net global warming (0.8 K) to date.

SummaryWind-battery electric vehicles can reduce U.S. CO2 by 25.5%; solar-battery electric vehicles can reduce it by 23.4% Wind turbines require 30 times less land than corn ethanol and 20 time less land than cellulosic ethanol for the same power.

Sufficient wind and solar are available worldwide to supply all electric and nonelectric energy needs simultaneously several times over and to solve air pollution/climate problems simultaneously.

More info: www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol