Category One Week Two Weeks One Month 84 78

Time Event Estimate Date Act.vs. Est. S&P

10:00 Factory Orders 1.1 9/2 0.1 0.28

10:00 Durable Goods 2.0 9/27 1.1 -0.28

Last Report

Time Event Estimate Date Est Act. Diff. S&P Best Worst

8:30 Personal Income 0.3 8/27 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.88 Ener HC

8:30 Personal Spending 0.7 8/27 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.88 Ener HC

8:30 PCE Core Deflator 0.3 8/27 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.88 Ener HC

9:45 Markit Manufact PMI 50.3 9/23 61.0 60.5 -0.5 1.21 Ener Util

10:00 Michigan Confidence 70.9 9/17 72.0 71.0 -1.0 -0.91 HC Mat.

10:00 Construction Spending 0.0 9/1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.03 Util Ener

10:00 ISM Manufact. 59.7 9/1 58.5 59.9 1.4 0.03 Util Ener

11:00 Harker Discusses Economic Outlook

11:00 Total Vehicle Sales

13:00 Baker Hughes Rig Count

KDP Investor Meeting

Last Report

Upgrades

Ticker Firm From To

CNP Barclays Mkt Wgt Overwgt

FIVN Evercore Inline Outperf

FIVN Wells Fargo Mkt Wgt Overwgt

GIS Citigroup Neutral Buy

KMX Wolfe Mkt Perf Outperf

PVH Barclays Underwgt Mkt Wgt

Downgrades

Ticker Firm From To

CGC B of A Buy Neutral

DLTR KeyBanc Overwgt Mkt Wgt

ISRG Citigroup Buy Neutral

SAVE JP Morgan Overwgt Neutral

SLGN JP Morgan Neutral Underwgt

Initiations/Reiterations

Ticker Firm Action Rating

ALGN Credit Suisse Initiated Outperf

AMZN RBC Capital Initiated Outperf

EA Truist Reiterated Buy

ENPH BMO Capital Initiated Outperf

GOOGL RBC Capital Initiated Outperf

IBM Jefferies Initiated Buy

- US Futures Turnaround From Overnight Lows; 10-Year Yield Below 1.5%.

- Crypto Rallies as Bitcoin and Ether Up 7%+.

- Merck's Antiviral COVID Pill Reduces Death and Hospitalization Rates By 50%.

Trading Up ($):

MSTR (25.61), AVIR (10.05), COIN (9.02), ZM (8.9), RNG (6.5), MRK (5.84)

Trading Down ($):

REGN (-18.18), MRNA (-16.86), NVAX (-10.92), VIR (-5.52), ALLE (-3.68), CROX (-1.98)-3.00

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00

Pe

rce

nt

Ch

ange

Asia Opens

Europe Opens

Today’s Events

Stock Specific News of Note

Noteworthy Macro EventsOther MarketsOvernight Trading

Tomorrow and Beyond

Overnight Trading

Analyst Actions

Indicators/EventsMarket Timing Model

© Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

Key Earnings Reports

Key Major Economic Indicators

BespokePremium.com

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward1

Ticker News

ALLE Lowered full year EPS guidance citing inflation and parts shortages.

COTY Will sell 9% stake in Wella to KKR in exchange for convertible preferred shares.

FIVN Terminates merger agreement with ZM after shareholders voted it down.

FLR Announced $1.2 bln contract with US Navy for nuclear propulsion work.

JEF Reported better than expected EPS and sales.

KDP Reaffirmed full year EPS guidance and announced $4 bln buyback.

MRK Says oral antiviral COVID 19 treatment reduced risk of hospitalization and death by 50%.

NIO Announces 125% increase in September deliveries (10,628).

RIDE Foxconn says it will buy 50 million in shares of the company.

Bearish Bullish

Category One Week Two Weeks One Month

Sentiment 0.16 0.26 0.65

Technicals 0.34 0.48 0.82

Fundamental 0.19 0.40 0.66

Overall 0.20 0.38 0.70

Average (all days) 0.16 0.32 0.66

Expected S&P 500 Return (%)

Neutral

i -2.3 %

h Closed

i -0.1

i -0.6

Oil 74.66 i -$0.4

Gold 1754.6 i -$2.4

$/Euro 0.862 i 0.00

$/Yen 111.14 i -0.2

Bitcoin 47,558 h 4,121

10-Yr 1.49 h 0.00

Japan

China

Germany

UK

Market and Sector Seasonality – Last 10 Years

Ticker Date TOD EPS Sales

PEP 10/4 PM 76% 79% 6%

Price Reaction: most recent report is on the left.

Price Reaction

(Last 8 Reports)

Beat Rate Raised

Guid.

Other Key Events

One Week One Month Three Months0.98% 2.13% 7.07%

84 78 99

10:00 Bullard Discusses Economy

F September Sales Release

OPRX Will replace LDL in the S&P 600 effective 10/4.

SPWR Will replace XEC in the S&P 400 effective 10/5.

Sector One Week One Month Three Months

Comm Services (XLC) -0.84 0.00 3.52

Cons Discret (XLY) 1.24 1.55 5.59

Cons Staples (XLP) 0.66 1.07 5.44

Energy (XLE) -0.05 -0.93 5.92

Financials (XLF) 1.63 2.61 8.58

Health Care (XLV) 0.85 1.03 7.94

Industrials (XLI) 0.59 1.81 7.56

Materials (XLB) 0.03 1.49 7.16

Real Estate (XLRE) 0.46 0.84 2.42

Technology (XLK) 0.13 3.44 8.52

Utilities (XLU) 1.11 2.78 1.04

Median Performance (%) From 10/1 Close…

Below we show seasonal trends for the next week, month,and quarter. The values at the top show median performancefor the S&P 500 for each period over the last ten years andthe numbers in the dials show the percentile ranks relative toall other periods in the last year. In the table, we showmedian performance for each sector during the upcomingweek, month, and 3-month periods over the last ten years.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/

Commodity Current 1 Wk Ago

$/Euro OB N

$/Yen OB OB

2-Year OS OS

10-Year OS OS

Gold OS OS

Silver OS OS

Copper OS N

Crude Oil OB OB

Heating Oil OB OB

Gasoline N N

Natural Gas OB OB

OS N OB

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21

Bonds Outperforming Stocks

Stocks Outperforming Bonds

Ticker % Chg. Occ. Chg. Percent Up Chg. Percent Up

JRVR 11.4 2 -3.9 0.0 0.8 50.0

ANGO 11.0 7 -5.5 0.0 -6.1 14.3

PRGO 8.8 13 -1.5 15.4 -0.3 46.2

PVAC 8.0 98 0.3 50.0 1.5 54.1

BBBY -22.2 18 2.6 66.7 1.0 55.6

KMX -12.6 5 1.1 40.0 -7.5 20.0

KSS -12.2 13 -0.7 30.8 2.5 61.5

RGS -11.5 14 0.3 28.6 0.7 57.1

Average Return (%)

Next Day Next Week

Index/Sector Current 1 Wk Ago

S&P 500 OS N

Cons Discret. OS N

Cons Staples OS N

Energy OB OB

Financials N N

Health Care OS N

Industrials OS OS

Materials OS OS

Technology OS N

Comm. Svcs OS N

Utilities OS OS

OS N OB

S&P 500 50-Day Moving Average Spread S&P 500 Internals Yesterday’s Movers

Relative Strength of Stocks versus Bonds

S&P 500 Overbought and Oversold Stocks (Percentage) Trading Ranges: Sectors

Trading Ranges: Bonds/Commodities

S&P 500 Overbought Stocks Most Likely to Fall

S&P 500 Oversold Stocks Most Likely to Rise


Extreme Overbought

Overbought

Oversold

Extreme Oversold

54.8

11.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Green indicates percentage of oversold stocks, and red indicates percentage of overbought stocks.

OB

OS

Indicator Change50-Day Moving Avg Spread i -3.1 % 0.3 %10-Day A/D Line i -807 -360# of Overbought Stocks i 55 117

# of Oversold Stocks h 274 154

P/E Ratio Trailing i 25.80 26.65 Forward i 21.60 22.01

Dividend Yield h 1.37 % 1.33 %

Credit Spreads (bps)High Yield h 309 303Corporate Bonds i 87 89

Current One Week Ago


BespokePremium.com


For an explanation of the first two pages of this report, please click here.

Ticker Price

PBCT 17.47 2.29 -0.92 32.8

Standard Deviations

Above 50-Day Avg

Avg % Return

(One Week)

Percent of

Time Positive

Ticker Price

CCI 173.34 -3.03 6.90 100.0

Standard Deviations

Below 50-Day Avg

Avg % Return

(One Week)

Percent of

Time Positive


https://www.bespokepremium.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Morning-Lineup-Explained.pdf

BBG US Dollar Index: Last Six Months

BBG US Dollar Index: Last 15 Trading Days

1110

1120

1130

1140

1150

1160

1170

4/6 5/4 6/1 6/29 7/27 8/24 9/21

1110

1120

1130

1140

1150

1160

1170

1180

4/6 5/4 6/1 6/29 7/27 8/24 9/21

50-DMA: 1148

200-DMA: 1135

1138

1142

1146

1150

1154

1158

1162

1166

1170

1174

9/9 9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29

1168

Gold Future: Last Six Months

Gold Front Month Future: Last 15 Trading Days

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

4/1 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

4/1 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21

1710

1730

1750

1770

1790

1810

1830

9/9 9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29

200-DMA: 1806

50-DMA: 1788 1726

S&P 500: Last Six Months

S&P 500: Last 15 Trading Days

3750

3850

3950

4050

4150

4250

4350

4450

4550

4650

3/31 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21

3750

3850

3950

4050

4150

4250

4350

4450

4550

4650

3/31 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21

4250

4300

4350

4400

4450

4500

4550

9/9 9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29

200-DMA: 4131

50-DMA: 4444

4359

Russell 2000: Last Six Months

Russell 2000: Last 15 Trading Days

1950

2000

2050

2100

2150

2200

2250

2300

2350

2400

3/31 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21

200-DMA: 2215

2120

2166

2212

2258

2304

9/9 9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29

50-DMA: 2229

2225

Nasdaq Composite: Last Six Months

Nasdaq Composite: Last 15 Trading Days

12300

12800

13300

13800

14300

14800

15300

15800

3/31 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21

12300

12800

13300

13800

14300

14800

15300

15800

3/31 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21

50-DMA: 14915

200-DMA: 13940

14300

14500

14700

14900

15100

15300

15500

9/9 9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29

14512

Oil Future: Last Six Months

Oil Future: Last 15 Trading Days

4/1 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

4/1 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21

200-DMA: 64

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

9/9 9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29

50-DMA: 70

74.66


BespokePremium.com


DJ Transports: Last Six Months

DJ Transports: Last 15 Trading Days

12500

13000

13500

14000

14500

15000

15500

16000

16500

3/31 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21

12500

13000

13500

14000

14500

15000

15500

16000

16500

3/31 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21

200-DMA: 14276

13800

14000

14200

14400

14600

14800

9/9 9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29

50-DMA: 14549

14243

Long Bond Future: Last Six Months

Long Bond Future Intraday: Last 15 Trading Days

151

154

157

160

163

166

4/6 5/4 6/2 6/30 7/29 8/26 9/24

151

154

157

160

163

166

4/6 5/4 6/2 6/30 7/29 8/26 9/24

200-DMA: 159

158

159

160

161

162

163

164

165

9/9 9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29

50-DMA: 163

159.44


For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

4

Morning Commentary Overview: Crypto is surging (up almost 10% over the past 24 hours), rates are bull-flattening, equity

index futures are ramping (+1.2% from 3:00 AM lows, pricing a 0.3% gain at the open), the dollar is

down, and commodities are mixed. Fed speakers today include Harker (likely to replace retiring Boston

Fed President Rosengren on the FOMC next year and is on the fence about a 2022 hike) and Mester

(who is not the most hawkish FOMC member but tilts that direction). Global Economic Scorecard

Washington Today: Contours for compromise within the Congressional Democratic caucus are finally

emerging. Last night, Speaker Pelosi did not move forward with a vote on the bipartisan infrastructure

bill because enough House Progressive Caucus members signaled they would refuse to vote for it. That

puts pressure on moderate Senators Manchin and Sinema, because it demonstrates they cannot hold

out indefinitely but have to bargain with Congressional leadership and the White House over the size

of the bill and what it contains.

House progressives are not opposed to the infrastructure bill but are holding it hostage in order to

make sure some form of reconciliation is passed. Manchin has signaled a low-$2s trillion dollar recon-

ciliation bill is possible and actual negotiations appear to finally be taking place. This is constructive

because previously nobody was bargaining over anything. Manchin/Sinema’s demands were unclear

and there was no negotiation because both sides thought passing infrastructure but not reconciliation

was an option. Now, with infrastructure held up, there’s urgency to pass reconciliation. The next ques-

tion will be if progressives will agree to a ~$2 trillion package. Our suspicion is yes, but details which

haven’t yet been hammered out are likely to be important factors in that analysis.

Debt Ceiling: As we’ve repeatedly mentioned, the Congressional slate this fall is complicated by the fac

that it contains not only the bipartisan infrastructure plan, the reconciliation bill, a government funding

fight, but also the debt ceiling. There’s interplay between these three though in technical terms they

are unrelated legislative issues. Earlier this week the Senate agreed to a continuing resolution that

pushed government shutdown off the table until December. Infrastructure will pass the House if recon-

ciliation negotiations can be hammered out and there’s movement on that. That leaves the debt ceil-

ing. Democrats ruled out using the reconciliation process to raise it. While that doesn’t mean that ap-

proach won’t happen, it’s unlikely at this point.

That leaves four possible alternatives: default, ending the filibuster, Republicans compromising, or

more “out there” solutions like ignoring the debt ceiling or minting the coin, both of which would end

up being reviewed by SCOTUS. We won’t discuss the idea of minting the coin for now, but you can read

about it in Bloomberg here (link; paywall). Default would be cataclysmic and in our view is still relative-

ly unlikely. The question then becomes whether Republicans fold and agree to raise the debt limit, or if

Democrats use reticence over moving a debt limit raise past a cloture vote as a justification to remove

the filibuster. In our view, the GOP coming to the table is more likely, though ultimately which way this

goes isn’t important so long as the ceiling is raised. As a reminder, the debt ceiling is an entirely arbi-

trary constraint on the Treasury, which is not dependent on Treasury’s ability to issue debt and contra-

dicts lawful instructions from Congress to Treasury to make payments as part of spending bills. Ideally,

the debt ceiling will be abolished or raised to an arbitrarily high number this fall so we don’t have to

hear about it any more.

https://www.bespokepremium.com

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/economic-monitors/eco-global

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-30/how-minting-a-trillion-dollar-platinum-coin-could-avoid-a-constitutional-crisis







5

APAC Markets: China and Hong Kong were shuttered for the week, which left APAC lots of space to sell

off without any catalysts from the region’s largest economy. The TOPIX dropped 2.2% in Tokyo and

TWSE was down 2.2% in Taipei, while the rest of the region was also in the red albeit slightly less. De-

spite the risk off tone, the dollar was down broadly against local FX, including USDJPY which has

dropped over the last two sessions after breaking out to a 52-week high earlier this week. With China

closed, iron ore was down modestly in Singapore futures trade.

One final note from the region: this morning, Taiwan’s government reported 25 Chinese aircraft en-

tered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, likely in response to a speech at the Hoover Institution

this week from the country’s foreign minister. That speech highlighted Chinese efforts to attack the

Taiwanese government. Open military conflict over Taiwan remains a very low probability event, but

the tempo of China-Taiwan disputes is not easing.

Europe Markets: An inflation beat isn’t enough to keep Eurozone bond yields up this morning, but the

STOXX 600 is down modestly anyways on 3:2 negative breadth at the single stock level. Energy prices

continue to soar with UK natural gas 1m forwards trading at the equivalent of $190/barrel oil. Month-

ahead electricity futures for Germany, France, and the UK are trading roughly 320% above their 2007-

2019 average prices, well over $220/MWh. Rate declines have banks down almost 1% while Utilities

and Real Estate pace the gains, both up over 1.1%. That’s a reversal of the pattern we’ve seen over the

last few weeks.

With the STOXX 600 about 5% below where it closed on September 6th (which was not a record high,

but was close to the high water market from August 13th), it’s worth assessing where the damage has

come. As shown below, Energy and other cyclical names have gained, while Utilities, Resources, and

Tech have gotten smoked. This is pure macro: energy prices soaring in Europe have driven up those

companies, while providing a tailwind for the bear-steepening of yield curves and higher real rates

which have hit Tech. At the same time, the Evergrande story has weighed on industrial metals and their

miners.

Morning Commentary

STOXX 600 Groups Over Course of Recent Pullback (EUR)

-4.6

7.4

1.9 1.2 0.8

-2.6 -2.9 -3.3 -4.2 -4.2 -5.0 -5.7 -5.8 -6.1 -6.2 -6.3 -6.4 -7.2 -7.3-9.3 -9.8-12

-10-8-6-4-202468

10

Performance Since 9/6 Closing High (%)








6

Overnight Data: Korean exports fell in September, driven by both China and RoW. In Japan, solid labor

market data was joined by strong Tankan surveys, which showed an impressive rebound in capex in-

tentions. Markit manufacturing PMIs missed in Asia and beat in Europe but continue to decelerate

broadly around the world. Non-Markit gauges were improved but are still off their highs. Inflation in

Europe continues to accelerate on a high frequency basis, up above 2.3% annualized in September pre-

liminary core HICP for the Eurozone.

Morning Commentary

Korea Exports MoM (%, SA By Bespoke) Japanese Capex Plans Continue to Rebound

APAC Markit PMIs Still Weakening Despite Korea Bounce Broad Peaking of European PMIs

Eurozone Inflation Accelerating Non-Markit PMIs For Europe Look Slightly Better In September

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

China

Ex China

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Tankan Capex Forecast (SA ByBespoke)

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

South Korea - Manufacturing - 52.4 vs 51.2 prior

Taiwan - Manufacturing - 54.7 vs 58.5 prior

Vietnam - Manufacturing - 40.2 vs 40.2 prior

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Poland - Manufacturing - 53.4 vs 56 prior

Czech - Manufacturing - 58 vs 61 prior

Eurozone - Manufacturing - 58.6 vs 61.4 prior

-2.29

-1.24

-0.27

1.00

0.630.84

1.24

2.27

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

EZ Core HICP MoM Ann. %, SABy Bespoke

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Swiss procure.ch PMI

Swedbank Sweden PMI








7

Coronavirus: Case counts, hospitalizations, and deaths are continuing to roll over in the US which is a

welcome development. More important today may be the news that Merck’s (MRK) oral anti-viral

COVID treatment has shown that it reduced deaths and hospitalizations in COVID patients versus a pla-

cebo. If avoiding negative outcomes from COVID can be as simple as popping a pill within five days of

symptom onset, that will be a big step in returning back to normal.

Morning Commentary

COVID-19 National Tracking Data: As-Of 9/29/2021

Note: As-of 9/27/2021

Note: As-of 9/28/2021

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Period Subject To Most Revision

Persons Receiving First Dose (% 12+Population, Daily Change, 7d Avg)

JNJ Paused

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

New Cases ('000s)

7-Day Moving Avg

1

6

11

16

21

26

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000 Total Tests 7dAvg ('000s)

Period MostSubject ToRevision

7 Day PositiveTest Rate (%)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Total COVID-19Hospitalizations ('000s)Period Most Subject ToRevision

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Partially Vaccinated (% 12+ Population)

Fully Vaccinated (% 12+ Population)

Total w 1+ dose: 75.5%

Fully Vax'd:

65%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Deaths

7-Day Moving Avg








8

Morning Commentary Global New Cases Per Day Per mm Population (7d Avg)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

World

Americas Ex US

EU

East Asia

Africa

US

Rest of World

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

World

East Asia

Africa

India

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400Ethiopia

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

South Africa

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Canada

Brazil

Chile

Mexico

US

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

FranceGermanyItalySpainUnited KingdomSweden

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

China

Japan

South Korea

Singapore


Category One Week Two Weeks One Month 84 78

Documents

Transcript of Category One Week Two Weeks One Month 84 78