Category One Week Two Weeks One Month 56 97
Transcript of Category One Week Two Weeks One Month 56 97
Time Event Estimate Date Act.vs. Est. S&P
8:30 Initial Claims 355 9/30 32 -1.19
8:30 Continuing Claims 2805 9/30 12 -1.19
Last Report
Time Event Estimate Date Est Act. Diff. S&P Best Worst
8:15 ADP 460 9/1 625 374 -251 0.03 Util Ener
10:30 DoE Energy Inventories
GM Investor Day
DOW Investor Day
Last Report
Upgrades
Ticker Firm From To
ABEV Barclays Mkt Wgt Overwgt
AEM RBC Capital Mkt Perf Outperf
CLF Goldman Neutral Buy
CMC Goldman Sell Neutral
MLM Loop Hold Buy
RIO BNP Paribas Neutral Outperf
Downgrades
Ticker Firm From To
AAL Goldman Neutral Sell
ITRI Oppenheim Outperf Mkt Perf
JBLU Goldman Buy Neutral
NLY Piper Overwgt Neutral
STX M Stanley Overwgt Mkt Wgt
X Goldman Neutral Sell
Initiations/Reiterations
Ticker Firm Action Rating
DASH Truist Reiterated Buy
MU BMO Capital Reiterated Outperf
NOMD Citigroup Resumed Buy
PTON Stifel Reiterated Buy
TRUP Piper Initiated Overwgt
- US Futures Sharply Lower As Nasdaq Leads Equities Lower.
- ADP Private Payrolls Top Forecasts by 130K.
Trading Up ($):
AYI (3.369), PLTR (1.68), VYGR (1.15), WBX (0.53), ACER (0.35), SBET (0.29)
Trading Down ($):
GOOGL (-32.46), AMZN (-28.79), MRNA (-11.11), LRCX (-8.4), NVAX (-8), TSLA (-7.96)-3.50
-3.00
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00
Pe
rce
nt
Ch
ange
Asia Opens
Europe Opens
Today’s Events
Stock Specific News of Note
Noteworthy Macro EventsOther MarketsOvernight Trading
Tomorrow and Beyond
Overnight Trading
Analyst Actions
Indicators/EventsMarket Timing Model
© Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.
Key Earnings Reports
Key Major Economic Indicators
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Ticker News
AZO Announces $1.5 billion increase to stock buyback program.
PLTR Awarded $800+ million US Army contract.
D Announces deal to sell Questar Pipelines unit to SWX for $2 billion.
HOV Lowered guidance; supply chain issues have become more pronounced in the last month.
FB Zuckerberg says whistle-blower complaints don’t 'make any sense'.
AYI Reported better than expected EPS on stronger revenues.
RPM Reported better than expected EPS on stronger revenues; lowered Q2 guidance.
SNAP Bloomberg reports that usage of SNAP increased 20% during Facebook outage.
STZ Reported weaker than expected EPS on stronger revenues; raised guidance.
VYGR Announces licensing pact with Pfizer for Tracer AAV Capsids.
Bearish Bullish
Category One Week Two Weeks One Month
Sentiment 0.03 0.19 0.58
Technicals 0.22 0.28 0.55
Fundamental 0.21 0.31 0.84
Overall 0.16 0.23 0.59
Average (all days) 0.16 0.32 0.66
Expected S&P 500 Return (%)
Neutral
i -1.1 %
h Closed
i -1.8
i -1.5
Oil 78.07 i -$0.9
Gold 1756.4 i -$4.5
$/Euro 0.867 h 0.00
$/Yen 111.39 i -0.1
Bitcoin 51,654 h 180
10-Yr 1.55 h 0.19
Japan
China
Germany
UK
Market and Sector Seasonality – Last 10 Years
Ticker Date TOD EPS Sales
CAG 9/7 AM 70% 48% 20%
LW 9/7 AM 79% 89% 11%
Price Reaction: most recent report is on the left.
Price Reaction
(Last 8 Reports)
Beat Rate Raised
Guid.
Other Key Events
One Week One Month Three Months0.39% 3.57% 5.97%
56 97 97
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage
11:45 Fed's Mester Discusses Inflation
CCSI Will replace RGS in the S&P 600 effective 10/11.
Sector One Week One Month Three Months
Comm Services (XLC) 0.32 1.30 3.76
Cons Discret (XLY) -0.51 1.84 5.61
Cons Staples (XLP) 0.64 1.86 4.12
Energy (XLE) 0.31 -0.06 5.94
Financials (XLF) -0.31 2.54 8.54
Health Care (XLV) -0.48 3.66 6.39
Industrials (XLI) 0.63 4.65 7.38
Materials (XLB) 0.34 2.08 6.15
Real Estate (XLRE) 1.00 1.58 0.97
Technology (XLK) 0.90 4.61 5.31
Utilities (XLU) 1.18 2.45 -0.72
Median Performance (%) From 10/6 Close…
Below we show seasonal trends for the next week, month,and quarter. The values at the top show median performancefor the S&P 500 for each period over the last ten years andthe numbers in the dials show the percentile ranks relative toall other periods in the last year. In the table, we showmedian performance for each sector during the upcomingweek, month, and 3-month periods over the last ten years.
Commodity Current 1 Wk Ago
$/Euro OB OB
$/Yen OB OB
2-Year OS OS
10-Year OS OS
Gold N OS
Silver OS OS
Copper OS N
Crude Oil OB OB
Heating Oil OB OB
Gasoline OB N
Natural Gas OB OB
OS N OB
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21
Bonds Outperforming Stocks
Stocks Outperforming Bonds
Ticker % Chg. Occ. Chg. Percent Up Chg. Percent Up
SWX 6.6 13 -0.6 46.2 -1.6 30.8
CAR 6.5 74 1.5 60.8 4.8 62.2
APPS 6.1 105 1.4 61.0 4.6 61.0
ABMD 5.9 16 0.2 62.5 -2.0 37.5
CMTL -10.8 8 1.2 50.0 5.3 50.0
TCMD -7.7 42 -0.6 45.2 -2.3 35.7
GDOT -7.7 29 0.5 51.7 2.6 58.6
SLVM -7.5 0 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Average Return (%)
Next Day Next Week
Index/Sector Current 1 Wk Ago
S&P 500 OS OS
Cons Discret. OS N
Cons Staples OS OS
Energy OB OB
Financials OB N
Health Care OS OS
Industrials OS OS
Materials OS OS
Technology OS OS
Comm. Svcs OS OS
Utilities OS OS
OS N OB
S&P 500 50-Day Moving Average Spread S&P 500 Internals Yesterday’s Movers
Relative Strength of Stocks versus Bonds
S&P 500 Overbought and Oversold Stocks (Percentage) Trading Ranges: Sectors
Trading Ranges: Bonds/Commodities
S&P 500 Overbought Stocks Most Likely to Fall
S&P 500 Oversold Stocks Most Likely to Rise
Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21
Extreme Overbought
Overbought
Oversold
Extreme Oversold
45.6
18.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21
Green indicates percentage of oversold stocks, and red indicates percentage of overbought stocks.
OB
OS
Indicator Change50-Day Moving Avg Spread i -2.1 % -2.0 %10-Day A/D Line h 379 -305# of Overbought Stocks h 94 86
# of Oversold Stocks h 228 212
P/E Ratio Trailing i 26.02 26.06 Forward i 21.15 21.55
Dividend Yield h 1.36 % 1.36 %
Credit Spreads (bps)High Yield h 321 313Corporate Bonds h 89 87
Current One Week Ago
© Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.
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Ticker Price
WMB 27.26 3.03 -2.02 23.5
Standard Deviations
Above 50-Day Avg
Avg % Return
(One Week)
Percent of
Time Positive
Ticker Price
AMD 101.81 -1.02 2.31 57.7
MSCI 602.63 -1.26 2.00 74.1
Standard Deviations
Below 50-Day Avg
Avg % Return
(One Week)
Percent of
Time Positive
BBG US Dollar Index: Last Six Months
BBG US Dollar Index: Last 15 Trading Days
1110
1120
1130
1140
1150
1160
1170
4/6 5/4 6/1 6/29 7/27 8/24 9/21
1110
1120
1130
1140
1150
1160
1170
1180
4/6 5/4 6/1 6/29 7/27 8/24 9/21
50-DMA: 1148
200-DMA: 1135
1138
1142
1146
1150
1154
1158
1162
1166
1170
1174
9/9 9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29
1168
Gold Future: Last Six Months
Gold Front Month Future: Last 15 Trading Days
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
4/1 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
4/1 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21
1710
1730
1750
1770
1790
1810
1830
9/9 9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29
200-DMA: 1806
50-DMA: 1788 1726
S&P 500: Last Six Months
S&P 500: Last 15 Trading Days
3750
3850
3950
4050
4150
4250
4350
4450
4550
4650
3/31 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21
3750
3850
3950
4050
4150
4250
4350
4450
4550
4650
3/31 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21
4250
4300
4350
4400
4450
4500
4550
9/9 9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29
200-DMA: 4131
50-DMA: 4444
4359
Russell 2000: Last Six Months
Russell 2000: Last 15 Trading Days
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
2300
2350
2400
3/31 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21
200-DMA: 2215
2120
2166
2212
2258
2304
9/9 9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29
50-DMA: 2229
2225
Nasdaq Composite: Last Six Months
Nasdaq Composite: Last 15 Trading Days
12300
12800
13300
13800
14300
14800
15300
15800
3/31 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21
12300
12800
13300
13800
14300
14800
15300
15800
3/31 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21
50-DMA: 14915
200-DMA: 13940
14300
14500
14700
14900
15100
15300
15500
9/9 9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29
14512
Oil Future: Last Six Months
Oil Future: Last 15 Trading Days
4/1 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
4/1 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21
200-DMA: 64
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
9/9 9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29
50-DMA: 70
74.66
© Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.
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DJ Transports: Last Six Months
DJ Transports: Last 15 Trading Days
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
15500
16000
16500
3/31 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
15500
16000
16500
3/31 4/29 5/27 6/25 7/26 8/23 9/21
200-DMA: 14276
13800
14000
14200
14400
14600
14800
9/9 9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29
50-DMA: 14549
14243
Long Bond Future: Last Six Months
Long Bond Future Intraday: Last 15 Trading Days
151
154
157
160
163
166
4/6 5/4 6/2 6/30 7/29 8/26 9/24
151
154
157
160
163
166
4/6 5/4 6/2 6/30 7/29 8/26 9/24
200-DMA: 159
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
9/9 9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29
50-DMA: 163
159.44
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sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its
accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the
purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not
responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.
4
Morning Commentary Overview: Energy commodities are lower on the day after an overnight surge, with all commodity
groups lower on the session. US equity index futures are off overnight lows but point to a decline of
nearly 1% at the open, with rates slightly higher and credit under pressure as the dollar rallies. Crypto
prices are modestly higher over the last 24 hours. ADP payrolls estimates for September beat estimates
this morning, and there’s nothing else on the US data slate. DC continues to discuss a debt ceiling raise.
Global Economic Scorecard
RBNZ: Overnight, the Kiwis took off from the zero lower bound, joining Norway and a number of
emerging markets central banks in their hikes off the lowest policy rates on record globally. The policy
committee also guided “further removal of monetary stimulus is expected over time” as “capacity pres-
sures remain evident” and are “seen feeding through to inflation”. Despite the hike, NZDUSD is having
tis second-worst session of the past 8 weeks, down 1%, while AUDNZD (a purer-play on the RBNZ’s im-
pact that removes the global dollar impact from the cross) is at its highest level since July and having its
second-best session since the first day of June. Kiwi rates were little-changed. This is an excellent ex-
ample of a positioning-led change creating a seemingly paradoxical market reaction to a catalyst, not a
super-dovish assessment of what the RBNZ said last night.
APAC Markets: Chinese property developer Fantasia defaulted on a $200mm bond that was due Mon-
day, fueling more concern about Chinese property activity beyond Evergrande; developer Sinic Hold-
ings group also missed an interest payment on local debt in recent days. Onshore China remains closed
but Hong Kong was down 0.6% last night with H-shares (Hong Kong-listed onshore companies) down
1.2%. Japan continued to drop with the TOPIX down 8 days in a row for the worst 8 day loss since the
COVID shock (-7.1%). Korea remains in freefall with the KOSPI down 1.8%; that index has fallen 6.1%
over the last 5 trading days to the lowest close of the year. Australia, India, and Taiwan were all lower
but Indonesia surged 2% with Singapore and the Philippines also higher. Singapore-listed iron ore has-
n’t moved much during the Chinese holiday, while the dollar was broadly higher versus local FX.
Europe Markets: It’s been a dramatic day for energy in Europe. Front-month natural gas futures in the
UK (for December delivery) traded up as much as 39% to more than 400 GBP per contract which is
equivalent to more than $70 natural gas in the Henry Hub contract traded in the US. For context, that
contract trades for around $6.20 currently, illustrating the massive shock. The domestic US natural gas-
LNG global demand arbitrage is wide open right now and as we noted in The Closer last night (link), US
LNG terminals are sending more than $2bn of natural gas abroad per month. That number will only rise
as incomplete LNG terminal projects come online in coming years. Since mid-session highs, prices have
moved sharply lower and front-month natural gas is now down in the UK futures market. The reversal
came following headlines from Russian President Putin, who appears to be setting the stage for a large
release of natural gas supplies to Europe with commentary today arguing “European authorities made
mistakes” in how they have managed supply like the pending Nordstream 2 pipeline from Russia.
The STOXX 6600 is down 1.5% with every group lower and 6 groups down over 2%. Personal Care/Drug
Stores/Groceries are least-hit, down 55 bps, while Travel & Leisure is down 3% and Retail is down 2.5%.
Yields are slightly higher, with cash EUR high yield getting hit very hard. EURUSD is down 51 bps to new
52-week lows while GBPUSD is reversing some of its rally from the past week.
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BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from
sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its
accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the
purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not
responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.
5
Overnight Data: German factory orders fell almost 8% in August as the country’s manufacturing sector
staggered under the painful effects of auto supply chain shocks. While capital goods led the decline,
autos were the biggest driver with ripple effects across the Mittelstand. We also note battery order
volumes bounced after a few huge declines, though their growth has dropped after a spectacular run in
2020. In Sweden, factory order volumes were down a third consecutive month, and monthly GDP esti-
mates completely whiffed. Eurozone retail sales also missed estimates in a broadly weaker result for
European data than economists had been expecting, but they are still running above the pre-COVID
trend of growth. Finally, MBA mortgage purchase applications updated this morning continue to sug-
gest total home sales will bottom in the next couple of months if they haven’t already.
Morning Commentary
Germany Factory Order Volumes (2015 = 100): Capital Goods Lead The Huge Miss In August
German Auto Hits Keep Coming (Order Volume, 2015 = 100) Swedish Orders Also Drop; Down 3m In A Row
EZ Consumers Still Spending Above Trend Home Transactions Have Officially Stabilized
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
Total
Total: Domestic
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Capital Goods
Intermediate Goods
Consumer Goods
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
Autos
Batteries & Accumulators
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Sweden Industrial Orders Volume(2015 = 100)
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Eurozone Retail SalesVolume
2014 - 2019 Trend:1.8% Ann. Growth
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
310
330
350 Monthly Avg MortgageApplications for HomePurchase, Adv 1m
New + Existing Home Salesmm SAAR
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BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from
sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its
accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the
purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not
responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.
6
Coronavirus: Case counts, hospitalizations, and deaths are continuing to roll over in the US which is a
welcome development. In terms of vaccination rates, we’re getting very close to three-quarters of the
US population over the age of 12 receiving at least one shot while nearly two-thirds are fully vaccinat-
ed.
Morning Commentary
COVID-19 National Tracking Data: As-Of 10/4/2021
Note: As-of 10/2/2021
Note: As-of 10/3/2021
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Period Subject To Most Revision
Persons Receiving First Dose (% 12+Population, Daily Change, 7d Avg)
JNJ Paused
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
New Cases ('000s)
7-Day Moving Avg
1
6
11
16
21
26
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000 Total Tests 7dAvg ('000s)
Period MostSubject ToRevision
7 Day PositiveTest Rate (%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Total COVID-19Hospitalizations ('000s)Period Most Subject ToRevision
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Partially Vaccinated (% 12+ Population)
Fully Vaccinated (% 12+ Population)
Total w 1+ dose: 73.5%
Fully Vax'd: 63.4%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Deaths
7-Day Moving Avg
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sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its
accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the
purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not
responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.
7
Morning Commentary Global New Cases Per Day Per mm Population (7d Avg)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
World
Americas Ex US
EU
East Asia
Africa
US
Rest of World
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
World
East Asia
Africa
India
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400Ethiopia
Ghana
Kenya
Nigeria
South Africa
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Canada
Brazil
Chile
Mexico
US
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
FranceGermanyItalySpainUnited KingdomSweden
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
China
Japan
South Korea
Singapore