Using Competitive Gap Analyses to Discover Low-Hanging Fruit
Canadian Unconventionals: The Low(er) Hanging Fruit
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Transcript of Canadian Unconventionals: The Low(er) Hanging Fruit
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Canadian Unconventionals: The Low(er) Hanging Fruit October 22, 2015 Kaush Rakhit, President M.Sc., P.Geol
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Disclaimer
Disclaimers
The information contained herein has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended to be used for trading or investment purposes or as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or financial product. The information has been compiled by Canadian Discovery from internal sources as well as prepared from various public and industry sources that we believe are reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied is made by Canadian Discovery, its affiliates or any other person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Such information is provided with the expectation that it will be read as part of a mosaic of analyses and should not be relied upon on a stand-alone basis. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and Canadian Discovery makes no representation of warranty regarding future performance. The opinions expressed in this report (presentation) reflect the judgment of Canadian Discovery as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report (presentation) is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. To the full extent provided by law, neither Canadian Discovery nor any of its affiliates, nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for a direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report (presentation) or the information contained herein. As in all aspects of oil and gas evaluation, there are uncertainties in the interpretation of engineering, reservoir and geological data: therefore, the recipient should rely solely on its own independent investigation, evaluation, and judgment with respect to the information contained herein and any additional information provided by Canadian Discovery or its representatives. All trademarks, service marks, and trade names not owned by Canadian Discovery are the property of their respective owners.
Forward-Looking Statements
This presentation may contain certain forward-looking information as defined in applicable securities laws (referred to herein as “forward-looking statements”). Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which are beyond Canadian Discovery’s ability to predict or control and may cause Canadian Discovery’s actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any of its future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by forward-looking statements.
Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements contained herein are made as of the date hereof, or such other date or dates specified in such statements. Canadian Discovery undertakes no obligation to update publicly or otherwise revise any forward-looking statements contained herein whether as a result of new information or future events or otherwise, except as may be required by law. If the Company does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that it will make additional updates with respect to those or other forward-looking statements.
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Historical Trends
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WCSB Resource Plays
Oil Sands
Spirit River
Viking
Cardium
Horn River
Montney
Duvernay
Montney
Cardium
Heavy Oil
Williston Basin
Viking
Bakken/Torquay Midale
~36,000 Wells Since 2005
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*
HISTORICAL 1994-2015 Vertical vs Horizontal Spuds
Powered by IHS Data; US EIA website
Horizontal
Deviated
Vertical
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HISTORICAL Selected Resource Plays – Wells Spud by Year
Powered by IHS Data
2014 6,596 Wells Spud 2015est 1,734 Wells Spud
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Production Metrics
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2015 – Spuds IPmax
Oil Sands
Spirit River
Viking
Cardium
Horn River
Montney
Duvernay
Montney
Cardium
Heavy Oil
Williston Basin
Bakken/Torquay Midale
Glauconitic Lower Mannville
1,282 Wells
Highly Notable Mannville SAGD
Shaunavon
The Deep Basin IPmax Winner
SE SK In the Running
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PRODUCTION METRICS WCSB Resource Wells - IPmax Trends
Total IPmax (boepd)
Average IPmax per well (boepd)
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PRODUCTION METRICS WCSB Resource Plays – Average IPmax
graph OK, adjust size and position??
Well count Dry Gas Well Count Down ; Brings Avg IP Rates Down
Avg of Median IPmax
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PRODUCTION METRICS Selected Resource Plays – Average IPmax
Avg of Median
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PRODUCTION METRICS Selected Plays – Average IPmax Trends
Cardium
Bakken
Duvernay
Viking
Montney
SpiritR
Year 2013 2012 2011 2010 2014 2015
Powered by IHS Data
Quarterly Aggregated Trends
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PRODUCTION METRICS Selected Resource Plays – Average $K/BOEPD
Avg of Median
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PRODUCTION METRICS Selected Plays – Average $K/BOEPD Trends
Cardium
Bakken
Duvernay
Viking
Montney
SpiritR
Year 2013 2012 2011 2010 2014 2015
Powered by IHS Data
Quarterly Aggregated Trends
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Most Active Resource Plays Low(er) Hanging Fruit
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Cardium
Cardium Resource Play
Oil Sands
Spirit River
Viking
Cardium
Horn River
Montney
Duvernay
Montney
Cardium
Heavy Oil
Williston Basin
Viking
Bakken/Torquay Midale
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CARDIUM Play Development
Wapiti
Kaybob South
Pembina
Garrington
Lochend
Stolberg Willesden Green
Ferrier
Powered by IHS Data
~4,000 Wells
Intermediates and Juniors
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CARDIUM Cardium Oil Completions Trends
Data from Canadian Discovery's Well Completions & Frac Database
21
440 2,900
$1.6M $0.9M
Quarterly Completions Analysis │ September 24, 2015
Technology Group Distribution Avg D&C Costs per Well
Avg Stages, Measure Depth and Completed Length per Well Avg Proppant and Fluid per Well
3,570 1,600 Stages Length
Drill Cost Comp Cost
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CARDIUM Pros and Cons
14-20-50-12W5
Pros • IPmax trend • $K/IPmax trend • Drill, Comp Costs • Existing Infrastructure
Cons • 2014 vs 2015 Activity • Net Pay 2-15m
Log Analysis generated by HDS Petrophysical SoftwareTM; Powered by IHS Data
Summary • Avg D&C Cost - $2.7MM • $K/IPmax - $17.0K
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Viking
Viking Resource Play
Oil Sands
Spirit River
Viking
Cardium
Horn River
Montney
Duvernay
Montney
Cardium
Heavy Oil
Williston Basin
Viking
Bakken/Torquay Midale
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VIKING Play Development
Redwater
Halkirk East
Elrose
Plato Dodsland
Kerrobert
Provost
Forgan
Powered by IHS Data
~6,200 Wells
Activity Focused at Dodsland
Juniors, Intermediates
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VIKING Viking Oil Completions Trends
Data from Canadian Discovery's Well Completions & Frac Database
17
235 480
$0.3M $0.4M
Quarterly Completions Analysis │ September 24, 2015
Technology Group Distribution Avg D&C Costs per Well
Avg Stages, Measured Depth and Completed Length per Well Avg Proppant and Fluid per Well
1,525 630 Stages
Drill Cost Comp Cost
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VIKING Pros and Cons
Log analysis generated with GeoLog Multimin® Software; Powered by IHS Data
3-23-31-21W3
Pros • Most active play WCSB • Lowest cost play WCSB • IPmax trend steady • $K/IPmax trend steady • Drill, Comp Costs
Cons • Net Pay 5-10m
Summary • Avg D&C Cost - $0.7MM • $K/IPmax - $15.0K
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Spirit River
Oil Sands
Spirit River
Viking
Cardium
Horn River
Montney
Duvernay
Montney
Cardium
Heavy Oil
Williston Basin
Viking
Bakken/Torquay Midale
Spirit River Resource Gas Play
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SPIRIT RIVER Play Development
Kakwa Karr
Ferrier Willesden Green
Edson Ansell
Sundance
Powered by IHS Data
Play has Moved Downdip; Focused on Sweet Spots
~1,700 Wells
Intermediates, Majors
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SPIRIT RIVER Spirit River Gas Completions Trends
Data from Canadian Discovery's Well Completions & Frac Database
13
690 3,350
$2.7M $1.3M
Technology Group Distribution Avg D&C Costs per Well
Avg Stages, Measured Depth and Completed Length per Well Avg Proppant and Fluid per Well
4,300 1,270
Drill Cost Comp Cost
Tech Stabilizing
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SPIRIT RIVER IP90 Production Trends
2013 2012 2011 2010 2014 2015
Powered by IHS Data
Rates Increasing with Time for all Units
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SPIRIT RIVER Quarterly IP90 Production Trends
Notikewin Falher Wilrich
SpiritR
Year 2013 2012 2011 2010 2014 2015
Powered by IHS Data
Notikewin Pulling Ahead
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Powered by IHS Data
5-23-57-1W6 Pros • Highest IP rates, trend • $K/IPmax • Drill, Comp Costs • Net Pay ~ 120m
Cons • Capital Intensive • Reservoir heterogeneity • Liquids variable
SPIRIT RIVER Pros and Cons
Summary • Avg D&C Cost - $4.0MM • $K/IPmax - $6.3K
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Montney
Montney Resource Play
Oil Sands
Spirit River
Viking
Cardium
Horn River
Montney
Duvernay
Montney
Cardium
Heavy Oil
Williston Basin
Viking
Bakken/Torquay Midale
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MONTNEY Play Development
Girouxville
Ante Creek Elmworth
Karr Kakwa Liquids-Rich
Dawson
Swan Lake Sunrise Sunset
Tower
Gundy Beg
Powered by IHS Data
Most BC Drilling Focused on Montney
Intermediates, Majors
~6,000 Wells
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MONTNEY Montney Gas Completions Trends
Avg Stages, Measured Depth and Completed Length per Well Avg Proppant and Fluid per Well
Data from Canadian Discovery's Well Completions & Frac Database
22
2,000 10,700
$5.2M $3.1M
Technology Group Distribution Avg D&C Costs per Well
4,100 1,750 Stages Length
Proppant Comp Cost
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MONTNEY Montney Oil Completions Trends
Data from Canadian Discovery's Well Completions & Frac Database
23
$2.3M $1.5M
Technology Group Distribution Avg D&C Costs per Well
Avg Stages, Measured Depth and Completed Length per Well Avg Proppant and Fluid per Well
670
2,600
3,855 1,800
Still Experimenting
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MONTNEY Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) per Well
Girouxville
Ante Creek
Dawson Swan Lake
Kakwa
Gundy Beg
Elmworth
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Kakwa-Karr BOE Type Curve
MONTNEY SPOTTER
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Montney Kakwa Operator EUR Comparison
Kakwa Area Median EUR 490 mboe
Differences Due to Geology or Technology? Company F
Median EUR – 1,452 mboe
Company G Median EUR – 306 mboe
F G
Company F vs Company G • Bigger Completions (Longer Laterals, More Stages , More Proppant/Fluid • D&C Costs – 58% Higher • EUR 4.7 X Greater
Tech Wins
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MONTNEY Pros and Cons
Log analysis generated with GeoLog Multimin® Software; Powered by IHS Data
15-25-80-16W6
Pros • IPmax trend • $K/IPmax trend • Net Pay ~ 300m • Potential for vertically
stacked laterals
Cons • Reservoir heterogeneity • Variable liquids rates
Summary • Avg D&C Cost - $8.3MM • $K/IPmax - $16.3K
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Bakken
Bakken Resource Play
Oil Sands
Spirit River
Viking
Cardium
Horn River
Montney
Duvernay
Montney
Cardium
Heavy Oil
Williston Basin
Viking
Bakken/Torquay Midale
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BAKKEN Play Development
Viewfield
Oungre Taylorton
Powered by IHS Data
One Operator
• Waterflooding Improves RF from 12 to 30%
• Sliding Sleeve Technology Improves Waterflood Control
~4,000 Wells
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Bakken Bakken Oil Completions Trends
Data from Canadian Discovery's Well Completions & Frac Database
24
71 430
$1.0M $0.7M
Quarterly Completions Analysis │ September 24, 2015
Technology Group Distribution Avg D&C Costs per Well
Avg Stages, Measured Depth and Completed Length per Well Avg Proppant and Fluid per Well
2,900 1,300 Proppant
Fluid Drill Cost
Comp Cost
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BAKKEN Pros and Cons
Log analysis generated with GeoLog Multimin® Software; Powered by IHS Data
21/5-17-1-15W2
Pros • Activity holding • IPmax trend steady • $K/IPmax trend steady • Some overlap with Torquay
play • Waterflood improves RF
Cons • Net Pay 5-15m
Summary • Avg D&C Cost - $1.7MM • $K/IPmax - $11.7K
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Duvernay
Duvernay Resource Play
Oil Sands
Spirit River
Viking
Cardium
Horn River
Montney
Duvernay
Montney
Cardium
Heavy Oil
Williston Basin
Viking
Bakken/Torquay Midale
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DUVERNAY Play Development
Kaybob
Edson
East Shale Basin
Willesden Green
Powered by IHS Data
Majors
Phase Windows Variable
Geomechanics Drilling Problems
~500 Wells
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DUVERNAY Duvernay Gas Completions Trends
Data from Canadian Discovery's Well Completions & Frac Database
29
5,100 41,700
$5.2M $6.3M
Technology Group Distribution Avg D&C Costs per Well
Avg Stages, Measured Depth and Completed Length per Well Avg Proppant and Fluid per Well
5,300 2,000 Stages Proppant Drill Cost
Comp Cost
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DUVERNAY Pros and Cons
Log Analysis generated with Geolog® Multimin Software, Powered by IHS Data
16-4-62-21W5
Pros • Developing play, still
experimenting • Net Pay up to 60m
Cons • Phase window variable • Geomechanics, drilling problems • Capital Intensive
Summary • Avg D&C Cost - $11.5MM • $K/IPmax - $38.5K
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Conclusions
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Cost Summary
* 2014Q2
Avg D&C Costs ($MM) Q2 2015
Avg $K/IPmax ($K/boepd) Q1 2015
Cardium $2.7 17.0
Viking $0.7 15.0
Spirit River $4.0 6.3
Montney $8.3 16.3
Bakken $1.7 11.7
Duvernay $11.5 38.5*
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WCSB Resource Wells - Average IPmax Trends
Average IPmax per well (boepd)
Powered by IHS Data
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Conclusions
• Viking most active, followed by Montney and Spirit River • Bakken steady
• Cardium sharp decline
• Duvernay developing
• Spirit River and Montney liquids-rich plays produce at highest rates
• High-rate plays not necessarily the most economic (eg, Viking)
• Drilling/completion technologies continue to evolve • One size does not fit all
• Secondary recovery, waterfloods on the rise
• Basin underexplored – there is more to discover
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WCSB Deepest Penetration by Section
Thank you to other contributors
• Ben McKenzie – data maestro
• Meridee Fockler – organizer
• Paul Patton – graphic designer
• Zenith Phillips – graphic designer
• Candace Keeler – cartographer
• Ricky La – completions graphs
• Luigi Malinis – completions graphs
CDL products used for this presentation:
Powered by IHS Data
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Contact Information
For inquiries with respect to this presentation, please contact:
403.269.3644