Canada’s Housing Market€¦ · Housing Market Scorecard Based on a house at the HPI benchmark...
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Canada’s Housing Market September 15, 2019 BMO Capital Markets Economic Research Douglas Porter, CFA, Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group For information, contact: Sal Guatieri, Senior Economist 416.359.5295 • [email protected]
Transcript of Canada’s Housing Market€¦ · Housing Market Scorecard Based on a house at the HPI benchmark...
Canada’s Housing MarketSeptember 15, 2019
BMO Capital MarketsEconomic ResearchDouglas Porter, CFA, Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group
For information, contact:Sal Guatieri, Senior Economist416.359.5295 • [email protected]
Contents
Summary
Scorecard
Demand
Demand Drivers
New Supply
New Unsold Supply
Resale Supply
Resale Market Balance
Prices
Valuation and Affordability
2
Summary
+ National sales rose for a sixth straight month in August and are up 5% y/y.
+ Toronto sales up 14% y/y to above decade mean and prices are rising
+ Sales are firming in oil-producing regions− Sales in Vancouver also surged but prices still falling+ Monthly inventory below long-run norms as more markets
are tightening, though Saskatchewan still leans to buyers+ Sellers rule in Ottawa, Montreal and Halifax+ Benchmark prices firming (+0.9% y/y) with declines in
Vancouver generally offset by increases in other cities+ Prices rising strongly in Ottawa, Montreal, SW Ontario+ Valuations and affordability are healthy in most cities and
slowly improving in Vancouver
3
Housing Market Scorecard
Based on a house at the HPI benchmark price. 1 = Buyers’ market if sales/new listings ratio exceeds 0.5 standard deviations below normal; sellers’ market if exceeds 0.5 above normal 2 = 3 = Based on 25-year amortization, 5-year fixed rate with assumption about discount versus posted rate, average-priced house, down payment equal to half of annual family income (about 10% today) 4 = average home price used 5 = Montreal data are n.s.a., 12-mth m.a.Sources: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, CREA, FCIQ, BMO Capital Markets Economics estimates
(as of August 2019)
(monthly : as of August 2019) (partial quarter : July-Aug. 2019)
Average Existing Sales vs. Sales vs. Market Price vs. MortgagePrices Sales 10-year Average New Listings Balance 1 Family Income 2 Service Costs 3
(n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. (s.a. : 3-mth m.a.5 (s.a. : 3-mth m.a.5 (n.s.a. : ratio to (n.s.a. : % of: y/y % chng) : % chng from avg.) : %) annual family income) family income)
Canada 3.1 6.1 2.9 59.2 Sellers’ 5.6 28 Vancouver -9.1 6.2 -21.5 48.4 Buyers’ 11.0 57 Victoria 0.7 8.0 2.8 61.9 Balanced 7.0 35 Calgary -3.4 2.2 -12.3 55.0 Balanced 4.0 19 Edmonton4 -1.8 2.1 -1.8 51.8 Buyers’ 3.5 17 Regina -4.1 -6.2 -15.3 45.6 Buyers’ 2.6 11 Saskatoon -1.2 -3.4 -11.2 40.7 Buyers’ 2.9 13 Winnipeg4 -0.2 5.5 5.9 55.8 Balanced 3.3 15 Toronto 4.3 15.0 -0.1 57.8 Balanced 9.2 48 Ottawa 8.9 7.9 22.3 74.6 Sellers’ 3.8 18 Montreal 7.2 10.4 16.6 75.9 Sellers’ 4.3 21 Halifax4 5.6 6.9 15.0 70.4 Sellers’ 3.3 16
Median family income is estimated after 2017 using average annual growth in previous 10 years
4
Demand
+ After declining last year, national sales are rising due to lower mortgage rates and strong population growth
+ Oil-producing regions showing signs of stabilizing
+ Montreal and Ottawa remain strong, with sales above 10-year mean. Quebec City improving
+ Toronto sales on upswing. New condo sales soared in Q2 and detached rising too
+ Vancouver sales up though still below decade norm
5
60
80
100
120
140
88 98 08 1815
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
88 98 08 18
(000s of units : s.a.)
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
Existing Home Sales
Canada
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 100 = mean)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
16 17 18 19
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
10-yearmean
(monthly : as of August 2019)
+1 SD
-1SD
6
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
88 98 08 181
2
3
4
5
88 98 08 18
(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)
Existing Home Sales
Vancouver
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
10-yearmean
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
16 17 18 19
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Vancouver
National
(monthly : as of August 2019)
+1 SD
-1SD
7
50
75
100
125
150
175
88 98 08 180.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
88 98 08 18
Existing Home Sales
Victoria
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
10-yearmean
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
16 17 18 19
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Victoria
National
(monthly : as of August 2019)
(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
+1 SD
-1SD
8
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
88 98 08 180.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
88 98 08 18
Existing Home Sales
Calgary
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
10-yearmean
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
16 17 18 19
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Calgary
(monthly : as of August 2019)
(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
+1 SD
-1SD
National
9
50
75
100
125
150
175
88 98 08 180.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
88 98 08 18
Existing Home Sales
Edmonton
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
10-yearmean
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
16 17 18 19
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Edmonton
(monthly : as of August 2019)
(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
+1 SD
-1SD
National
10
70
90
110
130
150
88 98 08 180.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
88 98 08 18
Existing Home Sales
Regina
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
10-yearmean
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
16 17 18 19
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Regina
(monthly : as of August 2019)
(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
+1 SD
-1SD
National
11
50
75
100
125
150
175
88 98 08 180.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
88 98 08 18
Existing Home Sales
Saskatoon
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
10-yearmean
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
16 17 18 19
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Saskatoon
(monthly : as of August 2019)
(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
+1 SD
-1SD
National
12
(monthly : as of August 2019)
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
88 98 08 180.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
88 98 08 18
Existing Home Sales
Winnipeg
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
16 17 18 19
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Winnipeg
10-yearmean
(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
+1 SD
-1SD
National
13
50
75
100
125
150
88 98 08 180.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
88 98 08 18
Existing Home Sales
Hamilton
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
16 17 18 19
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Hamilton
(monthly : as of August 2019)
(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)
10-yearmean
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
+1 SD
-1SD
National
14
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
88 98 08 182
4
6
8
10
12
88 98 08 18
Existing Home Sales
Toronto
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
16 17 18 19
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Toronto
(monthly : as of August 2019)
(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)
10-yearmean
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
+1 SD
-1SD
National
15
(quarterly : as of 2019:Q2)
0
5
10
15
03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
(thousands of units)
New Condominium Sales
Toronto
mean
Source: Urbanation Inc.
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
17 18 19
(y/y % chng)
16
(quarterly : as of 2019:Q2)
0
2
4
6
8
03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
(thousands of units)
Existing Condominium Sales
Toronto
Source: Urbanation Inc.
-40
-20
0
20
40
17 18 19
(y/y % chng)
mean
17
0
1
2
3
4
5
01 06 11 16-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
17 18 19
New Home Sales
Toronto
Source: Altus Group
(000s of units : 3-mth m.a.)
High Rises
Low Rises
(3-mth m.a. : y/y % chng)
Low Rises
(monthly : as of July 2019)
High Rises
18
40
60
80
100
120
140
88 98 08 180.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
88 98 08 18
Existing Home Sales
Ottawa
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
16 17 18 19
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Ottawa
(monthly : as of August 2019)
(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)
10-yearmean
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)+1 SD
-1SD
National
19
(monthly : as of August 2019)
80
90
100
110
120
03 08 13 183.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
03 08 13 18
Existing Home Sales
Montreal
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Fédération des chambres immobilières du Québec
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
16 17 18 19
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Montreal
(000s of units : n.s.a.: 12-mth m.a.)
10-yearmean
(units per 1,000 people 1: n.s.a. : 12-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
+1 SD
-1SD
National
20
(monthly : as of August 2019)
80
90
100
110
120
130
03 08 13 180.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
03 08 13 18
Existing Home Sales
Quebec City
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Fédération des chambres immobilières du Québec
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
16 17 18 19
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Quebec City
(000s of units : n.s.a.: 12-mth m.a.)
10-yearmean
(units per 1,000 people 1: n.s.a. : 12-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
+1 SD
-1SD
National
21
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
88 98 08 180.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
88 98 08 18
Existing Home Sales
Halifax
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
16 17 18 19
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Halifax
10-year mean
(monthly : as of August 2019)
(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
+1 SD
-1SD National
22
(monthly : as of August 2019)
0
50
100
150
200
88 98 08 180.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
88 98 08 18
Existing Home Sales
Newfoundland & Labrador
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
16 17 18 19
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
NL10-year mean
(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
+1 SD
-1SD
National
23
Demand Drivers
+ Positive job growth
+ Prime-age 30-34 olds growing faster than population
+ Record inter. migration driving household formation
+ 2019 Federal budget measures: interest-free govt. loan and higher tax-free RRSP withdrawal limit
+ Lower mortgage rates
− Mortgage growth slowest in decades
− Little pent-up demand
− Poor affordability in Vancouver and Toronto
− Tougher mortgage rules (Jan. 2018)
− Sales tax on foreign buyers in parts of BC and ON
24
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Employment
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
Demand Drivers
+ Positive job growthCanada (monthly : y/y % chng : as of August 2019)
25
100
200
300
400
500
09 11 13 15 17 190.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
09 11 13 15 17 19
Demand Drivers
+ Population driven by immigrationCanada
Population(quarterly : y/y % chng :
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
Net International Migration(quarterly : 000s : 4-qtr m.s. :
as of 2019:Q2) as of 2019:Q1)
26
(rhs : 4-qtr m.s. : as of 2019:Q1)(lhs : s.a. : ann. : as of 2019:Q2) (lhs : ann. avg. of 5-yr chng in Census number of households : to 2016)
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
80
120
160
200
240
280
80 90 00 10 20
Canada (quarterly : 000s)
1 2 3
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC, Haver Analytics
HousingStarts 1
Demand Drivers
Household Formation
HouseholdFormation 2
Net InternationalImmigration 3
estimate 200k-210k
27
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
72 77 82 87 92 97 02 07 12 17
Population – Age 25 to 34
Demand Drivers
+ More potential first-time buyersCanada
1 Statistics Canada Scenario M3, medium-growth, historical trends (1999/2000-2002/2003)Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
projection 1
(annual : y/y % chng : as of 2018)
28
25.7
26.8
27.6
28.2
25
26
27
28
29
2001 2006 2011 2016
Canada
Single-Person Households
Demand Drivers
+ More single-person households
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
(annual : % of total households : as of 2016)
29
60.4
73.7
30
40
50
60
70
80
90 95 00 05 10 15
(quarterly : percent)
Owner’s Equity as a Percent of Real Estate
1 2
Source: Statistics Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics
Canada 1
UnitedStates 2
Demand Drivers
+ Equity for second-home purchases
(as of 2019:Q2) (as of 2019:Q1)
30
3
4
5
6
7
8
03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Demand Drivers
+ Lower mortgage ratesCanada
3-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate
Sources: Bank of Canada, Haver Analytics
(monthly : percent : as of August 2019)
31
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Canada
Residential Mortgages
Sources: Bank of Canada, Haver Analytics
Demand Drivers
− Slow loan growth(monthly : y/y % chng : as of July 2019)
32
Demand Drivers
− Tougher mortgage rules 2010/12: Insured mortgage no longer available for:
Terms longer than 25 years
Homes priced above $1 million
If housing costs exceed 39% of gross income
Eff. Feb. 15/2016: Minimum down payment rises from 5% to 10% on portion of home price above $500k; higher capital requirements for lenders; higher fees on government-backed mortgages.
Eff. Oct/Nov 2016: higher qualifying rate on 5-year and longer fixed rate mortgages; new rules apply to portfolio-insured mortgages; closed tax loophole on sales of “principal” residences
Eff. Jan 2018: higher qualifying rate on uninsured mortgages; restrictions on bundled loans
33
1.30
1.61
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
90 94 98 02 06 10 14 18
(quarterly : ratio to personal disposable income)
Household Debt 1
1 includes household and unincorporated business debt 2 Uses the Bank of Canada’s comparable-to-the-U.S. measure; 3Sources: Statistics Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics
Demand Drivers
− Elevated but steadier household debt
Canada 2
UnitedStates 3
(as of 2019:Q2) (as of 2019:Q1)
34
64.1
67.8
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20
(quarterly : percent)
Homeownership Rate
1 2
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, Statistics Canada, BMO Capital Market Economics estimate
Demand Drivers
− Little pent-up demand
Canada 2
UnitedStates 1
(as of 2016)(n.s.a. : as of 2019:Q2)
35
New Supply
+ Housing starts are trending close to (higher) household formations. No sign of overbuilding
− Homebuilders challenged to keep up with condo demand in the GVA and GTA, partly due to zoning restrictions and approval delays. Leads to higher prices and diminished affordability. Ontario Government proposals could reduce development charges and approval times, speeding up supply
+ While condo units under construction are near record highs in Vancouver and Toronto, most are sold and are needed to meet household formation. Very lean standing inventory
36
(monthly : s.a.a.r. : as of August 2019)
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
09 14 19100
150
200
250
90 00 10
Housing Starts
Canada
1 annual average change from prior census 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
(000s of starts: 6-mth m.a.)
Household Formation Rate 1
4
6
8
10
12
90 00 10
(starts per 1,000 people 2: 6-mth m.a.)
(6-mth m.a. :y/y % chng)
+1 SD
-1 SD
mean
37
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
90 00 10
Housing Starts
Vancouver
(000s of starts: 6-mth m.a.)
Household FormationRate 1
0
5
10
15
20
90 00 10
(starts per 1,000 people 2: 6-mth m.a.)
1 annual average change from prior census 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
09 14 19
(6-mth m.a. :y/y % chng)
Vancouver
National
mean
(monthly : s.a.a.r. : as of August 2019)
+1 SD
-1 SD
38
0
10
20
30
40
50
72 77 82 87 92 97 02 07 12 17 22
Housing Construction
Vancouver
Housing Units under Construction
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics
(monthly : 000s : as of July 2019)
39
(monthly : s.a.a.r. : as of August 2019)
0
5
10
15
20
25
90 00 10
Housing Starts
Calgary
(000s of starts: 6-mth m.a.)
Household Formation
Rate 1
0
5
10
15
20
25
90 00 10
(starts per 1,000 people 2: 6-mth m.a.)
1 annual average change from prior census 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
09 14 19
(6-mth m.a. :y/y % chng)
Calgary
National
mean +1 SD
-1 SD
40
(monthly : s.a.a.r. : as of August 2019)
0
5
10
15
20
25
90 00 10
Housing Starts
Edmonton
(000s of starts: 6-mth m.a.)
Household Formation
Rate 1
0
5
10
15
20
90 00 10
(starts per 1,000 people 2: 6-mth m.a.)
1 annual average change from prior census 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
-100
0
100
200
300
09 14 19
(6-mth m.a. :y/y % chng)
Edmonton
Nationalmean
+1 SD
-1 SD
41
(monthly : s.a.a.r. : as of August 2019)
0
2
4
6
8
90 00 100
2
4
6
8
10
90 00 10-100
-50
0
50
100
150
09 14 19
(starts per 1000 people 2: 6-mth m.a.)
(6-mth m.a. :y/y % chng)
1 annual average change from prior census 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
(000s of starts: 6-mth m.a.)
Housing Starts
Winnipeg
Household Formation Rate 1
Winnipeg
mean
+1 SD
-1 SD
National
42
(monthly : s.a.a.r. : as of August 2019)
0
1
2
3
4
5
90 00 100
2
4
6
8
10
90 00 10-100
-50
0
50
100
150
09 14 19
(starts per 1000 people 2: 6-mth m.a.)
(6-mth m.a. :y/y % chng)
1 annual average change from prior census 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
(000s of starts: 6-mth m.a.)
Housing Starts
Hamilton
Household Formation Rate 1
Hamilton
mean
+1 SD
-1 SD
National
43
(monthly : s.a.a.r. : as of August 2019)
10
20
30
40
50
60
90 00 102
4
6
8
10
12
14
90 00 10-100
-50
0
50
100
150
09 14 19
(starts per 1000 people 2: 6-mth m.a.)
(6-mth m.a. :y/y % chng)
1 annual average change from prior census 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
(000s of starts: 6-mth m.a.)
Housing Starts
Toronto
Household Formation Rate 1
Toronto
National
mean
+1 SD
-1 SD
44
(monthly : 000s : as of July 2019)
0
20
40
60
80
72 77 82 87 92 97 02 07 12 17 22
Housing Construction
Toronto
Housing Units under Construction
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics
45
0
10
20
30
40
50
90 95 00 05 10 15 200
10
20
30
90 95 00 05 10 15 20
Housing Starts: Singles versus Non-detached
Toronto
Singles
1 annual average change from prior censusSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
Non-detached
Household Formation
Rate 1
Household Formation Rate 1
(monthly : 000s of units : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : annualized : as of July 2019)
46
0
100
200
300
400
500
03 08 13 180
2
4
6
8
10
08 13 180
20
40
60
80
04 09 14 19
Condominium Construction
Toronto
Starts
Source: Urbanation Inc.
Units under Construction
Proposed/ Potential Units
(quarterly : 000s of units : as of 2019:Q2)
2019:Q2 = -44.4% y/ymean
2019:Q2 = 9.8% y/y
mean
2019:Q1 = 9.3% y/y
mean
47
(monthly : s.a.a.r. : as of August 2019)
0
2
4
6
8
10
90 00 102
4
6
8
10
12
14
90 00 10-100
-50
0
50
100
150
09 14 19
Housing Starts
Ottawa
(starts per 1,000 people 2
: 6-mth m.a.)(6-mth m.a. :y/y % chng)
1 annual average change from prior census 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
(000s of starts: 6-mth m.a.)
HouseholdFormation
Rate 1
mean
Ottawa
National+1 SD
-1 SD
48
(monthly : s.a.a.r. : as of August 2019)
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
90 00 102
4
6
8
10
12
90 00 10-100
-50
0
50
100
150
09 14 19
Housing Starts
Montreal
(starts per 1,000 people 2
: 6-mth m.a.)(6-mth m.a. :y/y % chng)
1 annual average change from prior census 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
(000s of starts: 6-mth m.a.)
Household Formation Rate 1
mean
Montreal
National+1 SD
-1 SD
49
(monthly : s.a.a.r. : as of August 2019)
0
2
4
6
8
10
90 00 102468
1012141618
90 00 10-100
-50
0
50
100
150
09 14 19
Housing Starts
Quebec City
(starts per 1,000 people 2
: 6-mth m.a.)(6-mth m.a. :y/y % chng)
1 annual average change from prior census 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
(000s of starts: 6-mth m.a.)
Household Formation Rate 1
mean
QuebecCity
National
+1 SD
-1 SD
50
(monthly : s.a.a.r. : as of August 2019)
0
1
2
3
4
5
90 00 102
4
6
8
10
12
14
90 00 10-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
09 14 19
Housing Starts
Halifax
(starts per 1,000 people 2
: 6-mth m.a.)(6-mth m.a. :y/y % chng)
1 annual average change from prior census 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
(000s of starts: 6-mth m.a.)
HouseholdFormation Rate 1
mean
Halifax
National
+1 SD
-1 SD
51
New Home Inventories
+ Normal on per-capita basis
+ ▬ GVA and GTA detached and condo inventories are low. The undersupply reduces correction risks, but also raises prices and reduces affordability
− Condo inventory high in Edmonton, Calgary, Quebec City, Winnipeg
52
68
10121416182022
92 02 120.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
92 02 122
4
6
8
10
12
14
92 02 120.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
92 02 12
New Home Inventories
CanadaNew Housing Units 1
thousands
1 completed and unabsorbed 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Multiples = semi-detached, row, apartment and other unitsSources: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
per 1,000 people 2 thousands per 1,000 people 2
Detached
Multiples
Detached
Multiples
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of July 2019)
Detachedmean
Multiplesmean
mean
+1 SD
-1 SD
53
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
92 02 120
1
2
3
4
5
92 02 120
1
2
3
4
92 02 12
New Home Inventories
VancouverNew Housing Units 1
1 completed and unabsorbed 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Multiples = semi-detached, row, apartment and other unitsSources: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
thousands per 1,000 people 2 thousands per 1,000 people 2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
92 02 12
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of July 2019)
Detached
MultiplesMultiples
Multiples mean
Detachedmean
Detached
+1 SD
-1 SD
mean
54
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
92 02 120.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
92 02 12
New Home Inventories
CalgaryNew Housing Units 1
1 completed and unabsorbed 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Multiples = semi-detached, row, apartment and other unitsSources: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
thousands per 1,000 people 2 thousands per 1,000 people 2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
92 02 120.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
92 02 12
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of July 2019)
mean
Detached
MultiplesMulti.
Multiples mean
DetachedmeanDetached
+1 SD
-1 SD
55
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of July 2019)
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
92 02 120.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
92 02 12
New Home Inventories
EdmontonNew Housing Units 1
1 completed and unabsorbed 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Multiples = semi-detached, row, apartment and other unitsSources: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
thousands per 1,000 people 2 thousands per 1,000 people 2
0
1
2
3
4
92 02 120.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
92 02 12
mean
Detached
Multiples
Multiples
Multi.mean
Detached mean
Det.
+1 SD
-1 SD
56
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
92 02 120.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
92 02 12
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of July 2019)
New Home Inventories
WinnipegNew Housing Units 1
1 completed and unabsorbed 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Multiples = semi-detached, row, apartment and other unitsSources: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
thousands per 1,000 people 2 thousands per 1,000 people 2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
92 02 120.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
92 02 12
mean
Detached
MultiplesMultiples
Multiples mean
Detachedmean
Detached
+1 SD
-1 SD
57
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of July 2019)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
92 02 120.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
92 02 12
New Home Inventories
HamiltonNew Housing Units 1
1 completed and unabsorbed 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Multiples = semi-detached, row, apartment and other unitsSources: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
thousands per 1,000 people 2 thousands per 1,000 people 2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
92 02 120.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
92 02 12
mean
Detached
MultiplesMultiples
Multiples mean
Detachedmean
Detached
+1 SD
-1 SD
58
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
92 02 120.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
92 02 12
New Home Inventories
TorontoNew Housing Units 1
1 completed and unabsorbed 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Multiples = semi-detached, row, apartment and other unitsSources: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
thousands per 1,000 people 2 thousands per 1,000 people 2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
92 02 120.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
92 02 12
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of July 2019)
mean
Detached
Multiples
Multiples
Multiples mean
Detachedmean
Detached+1 SD
-1 SD
59
0
5
10
15
20
25
00 05 10 15 200
5
10
15
20
25
00 05 10 15 20
Remaining Inventory 1
1 includes all unsold units under construction, pre-construction, and completedSource: Altus Group
New Home Inventories
Toronto
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
00 05 10 15 20
Total Low Rises High Rises
(monthly : 000s of units : as of July 2019)
mean
mean
mean
60
0
5
10
15
20
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
New Condominium Inventories
Toronto
Unsold Inventory of New Condos
Source: Urbanation Inc.
(quarterly : 000s of units : as of 2019:Q2)
2019:Q2 = 45.6% y/y
mean
61
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
New Condominium Vacancy Rate
Toronto
Unsold Inventory as a Share of Total Active Units
Source: Urbanation Inc.
mean
(quarterly : 000s of units : as of 2019:Q2)
62
0
5
10
15
20
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
New Condominium Quarterly Supply
Toronto
Unsold Inventory as a Share of Sales 1
1 quarters required to sell inventory at current sales rateSource: Urbanation Inc.
mean
(quarterly : ratio : as of 2019:Q2)
63
0
50
100
150
200
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
New Condominium Sales-to-Supply Ratio
Toronto
mean
Sales as a Share of Supply 1
1 supply is approximately unsold inventory plus salesSource: Urbanation Inc.
(quarterly : percent : as of 2019:Q2)
64
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
92 02 120.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
92 02 12
New Home Inventories
OttawaNew Housing Units 1
1 completed and unabsorbed 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Multiples = semi-detached, row, apartment and other unitsSources: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
thousands per 1,000 people 2 thousands per 1,000 people 2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
92 02 120.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
92 02 12
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of July 2019)
mean
Detached
Multiples Multiples
Multi. mean
Detachedmean
Det.+1 SD
-1 SD
65
0
1
2
3
4
5
92 02 120.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
92 02 120
1
2
3
4
92 02 120.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
92 02 12
New Home Inventories
MontrealNew Housing Units 1
1 completed and unabsorbed 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Multiples = semi-detached, row, apartment and other unitsSources: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
thousands per 1,000 people 2 thousands per 1,000 people 2
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of July 2019)
mean
Detached
MultiplesMultiples
Multi.mean
Detachedmean
Detached
+1 SD
-1 SD
66
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of July 2019)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
92 02 120.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
92 02 120.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
92 02 120.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
92 02 12
New Home Inventories
Quebec CityNew Housing Units 1
1 completed and unabsorbed 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Multiples = semi-detached, row, apartment and other unitsSources: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
thousands per 1,000 people 2 thousands per 1,000 people 2
mean
Detached
Multiples
Multiples
Multi.mean
Detachedmean
Det.
+1 SD
-1 SD
67
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of July 2019)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
92 02 120.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
92 02 12
New Home Inventories
HalifaxNew Housing Units 1
1 completed and unabsorbed 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Multiples = semi-detached, row, apartment and other unitsSources: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
thousands per 1,000 people 2 thousands per 1,000 people 2
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
92 02 120.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
92 02 12
mean
Detached
Multiples
Multiples
Multi. mean
Detachedmean
Det.+1 SD
-1 SD
68
Resale Supply
+ New listings modestly below past decade mean
+ Halifax, Montreal, Ottawa listings are low
− Winnipeg, Quebec City listings elevated
69
40
50
60
70
80
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
New Listings
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Resale Home Supply
Canada
10-year mean
(monthly : 000s of units : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of August 2019)
70
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
New Listings
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Resale Home Supply
Vancouver
10-year mean
(monthly : 000s of units : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of August 2019)
71
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
New Listings
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Resale Home Supply
Calgary
10-year mean
(monthly : 000s of units : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of August 2019)
72
(monthly : 000s of units : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of August 2019)
1
2
3
4
5
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
New Listings
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Resale Home Supply
Edmonton
10-year mean
73
(monthly : 000s of units : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of August 2019)
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
New Listings
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Resale Home Supply
Winnipeg
10-year mean
74
(monthly : 000s of units : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of August 2019)
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
New Listings
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Resale Home Supply
Hamilton
10-year mean
75
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
New Listings
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Resale Home Supply
Toronto
10-year mean
(monthly : 000s of units : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of August 2019)
76
0
5
10
15
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
2019:Q2 = 0.7% y/y
mean
Source: Urbanation Inc.
Total Listings of Resale Condos
Existing Condominium Listings
Toronto(quarterly : 000s of units : as of 2019:Q2)
77
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
New Listings
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Resale Home Supply
Ottawa
10-year mean
(monthly : 000s of units : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of August 2019)
78
3
4
5
6
7
03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
New Listings
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Resale Home Supply
Montreal
10-yearmean
(monthly : 000s of units : n.s.a. : 12-mth m.a. : as of August 2019)
79
(monthly : 000s of units : n.s.a. : 12-mth m.a. : as of August 2019)
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
New Listings
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Resale Home Supply
Quebec City
10-yearmean
80
(monthly : 000s of units : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of August 2019)
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
88 92 96 00 04 08 12 16 20
New Listings
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Resale Home Supply
Halifax
10-year mean
81
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
1
2
3
4
5
87 92 97 02 07 12 17 22
Resale Home SupplyVery Few Distressed Properties on the Market in Canada
(percent)
1 2 3 (US / Canada)Sources: Canadian Bankers Association, U.S. Mortgage Bankers Association
90-Day+ Mortgage Delinquency Rate
United States
(lhs) 2
Canada(lhs) 1
(monthly : as of April 2019) (quarterly : as of 2019:Q2)
Ratio(rhs) 3
82
Resale Market Balance
+ National market tightening (4.6 months supply is below long-run mean and lowest since 2017)
+ Sales/new listings 60.1% is above long-run norm and indicating tighter markets
+ Ottawa, Halifax, Montreal are sellers’ markets
− Vancouver, Regina are buyers’ markets
+ Ontario, PEI have low number of active listings
+ Vancouver and Toronto rental condo vacancy rates below 1%. Toronto condo rents rising
− Elevated supply in NF, Sask., Manitoba
83
2
4
6
8
10
03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Months’ Supply
Canada
Active Listings as Ratio of Existing Home Sales
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
mean
(monthly : s.a. : as of August 2019)
buyers’ market+1 standard deviation
-1 standard deviation sellers’ market
84
0
5
10
15
20
04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Months’ Supply
British Columbia
Active Listings as Ratio of Existing Home Sales
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
mean
(monthly : s.a. : as of August 2019)
buyers’ market+1 standard deviation
-1 standard deviation sellers’ market
85
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Months’ Supply
Alberta
Active Listings as Ratio of Existing Home Sales
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
mean
(monthly : s.a. : as of August 2019)
buyers’ market+1 standard deviation
-1 standard deviation sellers’ market
86
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Months’ Supply
Saskatchewan
Active Listings as Ratio of Existing Home Sales
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
mean
(monthly : s.a. : as of August 2019)
buyers’ market+1 standard deviation
-1 standard deviation sellers’ market
87
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Months’ Supply
Manitoba
Active Listings as Ratio of Existing Home Sales
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
mean
(monthly : s.a. : as of August 2019)
buyers’ market+1 standard deviation
-1 standard deviation sellers’ market
88
0
2
4
6
8
04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Months’ Supply
Ontario
Active Listings as Ratio of Existing Home Sales
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
mean
(monthly : s.a. : as of August 2019)
buyers’ market+1 standard deviation
-1 standard deviation sellers’ market
89
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Months’ Supply
Quebec
Active Listings as Ratio of Existing Home Sales
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
mean
(monthly : s.a. : as of August 2019)
buyers’ market+1 standard deviation
-1 standard deviation sellers’ market
90
0
5
10
15
20
04 09 14 190
5
10
15
20
25
04 09 14 194
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
04 09 14 194
6
8
10
12
14
16
04 09 14 19
Months’ Supply
The Atlantic ProvincesActive Listings as Ratio of Existing Home Sales
SD = standard deviationSource: Canadian Real Estate Association
New Brunswick
(mon. : s.a. : as of Aug ’19)
Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island
Newfoundland& Labrador
mean
buyers’market+1 SD
-1 SD sellers’market
91
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
Sales-to-New Listings
Canada
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Existing Home Sales as a % of New Listings
mean
(monthly : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of August 2019)
sellers’ market+0.5 × standard deviation
-0.5 × standard deviation buyers’ market
92
20
40
60
80
100
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
Sales-to-New Listings
Vancouver
Existing Home Sales as a % of New Listings
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
mean
sellers’ market+0.5 × standard
deviation
-0.5 × standard deviation
buyers’ market
(monthly : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of August 2019)
93
Sales-to-New Listings
Calgary
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Existing Home Sales as a % of New Listings
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
(monthly : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of August 2019)
mean
sellers’ market+0.5 × standard
deviation
-0.5 × standard deviation buyers’ market
94
(monthly : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of August 2019)
Sales-to-New Listings
Edmonton
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Existing Home Sales as a % of New Listings
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
mean
sellers’ market+0.5 × standard
deviation
-0.5 × standard deviation buyers’ market
95
(monthly : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of August 2019)
Sales-to-New Listings
Winnipeg
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Existing Home Sales as a % of New Listings
20
40
60
80
100
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
mean
sellers’ market+0.5 × standard deviation
-0.5 × standard deviation buyers’ market
96
(monthly : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of August 2019)
Sales-to-New Listings
Hamilton
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Existing Home Sales as a % of New Listings
15
30
45
60
75
90
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
mean
sellers’ market+0.5 × standard deviation
-0.5 × standard deviation buyers’ market
97
Sales-to-New Listings
Toronto
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Existing Home Sales as a % of New Listings
20
40
60
80
100
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
(monthly : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of August 2019)
mean sellers’ market+0.5 × standard
deviation
-0.5 × standard deviation buyers’ market
98
0
1
2
3
4
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Resale Condominium Quarterly Supply
Toronto
1 quarters required to sell listed units at current sales rateSource: Urbanation Inc.
Listed Units as a Share of Sales 1
mean
(quarterly : ratio : as of 2019:Q2)
99
Sales-to-New Listings
Ottawa
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Existing Home Sales as a % of New Listings
20
40
60
80
100
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
(monthly : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of August 2019)
mean
sellers’ market+0.5 × standard deviation
-0.5 × standard deviation buyers’ market
100
Sales-to-New Listings
Montreal
Source: Fédération des chambres immobilières du Québec
Existing Home Sales as a % of New Listings
25
50
75
100
125
150
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of August 2019)
mean
sellers’ market+0.5 × standard deviation
-0.5 × SD buyers’ market
101
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of August 2019)
Sales-to-New Listings
Quebec City
Source: Fédération des chambres immobilières du Québec
Existing Home Sales as a % of New Listings
20
40
60
80
100
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
mean
sellers’ market+0.5 × standard
deviation
-0.5 × SD buyers’ market
102
(monthly : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of August 2019)
Sales-to-New Listings
Halifax
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Existing Home Sales as a % of New Listings
20
40
60
80
100
120
88 92 96 00 04 08 12 16
mean
-0.5 × standard deviation buyers’ market
sellers’ market+0.5 × standard deviation
103
0.9 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.90.3 0.6 0.3
0
2
4
6
8
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
Rental Vacancy Rates
Vancouver(percent)
1 2
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics
Apartments 1
(as of October 2018) (as of October 2018)
(annual through 2013, then semiannual)Condominium Rentals 2
(October of given year)
104
5.7
2.1
1.0 1.1
4.94.4
3.8
2.7
0
2
4
6
8
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
Rental Vacancy Rates
Calgary(percent)
Apartments 1
1 2
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics(as of October 2018)(as of October 2018)
(annual through 2013, then semiannual)Condominium Rentals 2
(October of given year)
105
(as of October 2018)(as of October 2018)
(annual through 2013, then semiannual)
3.7
2.5
1.1
2.3
5.3
6.8 6.9
4.2
0
2
4
6
8
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
Rental Vacancy Rates
Edmonton(percent)
Apartments 1
1 2
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics
Condominium Rentals 2
(October of given year)
106
1.81.3 1.5
2.61.8
2.8 2.9
0
2
4
6
8
11 12 13 14 16 17 181 2
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics Note: Winnipeg condo rental data for October 2015 is not available.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 93 98 03 08 13 18(as of October 2018)
Rental Vacancy Rates
Winnipeg(percent)
Apartments 1
(as of October 2018)
(annual through 2013, then semiannual)Condominium Rentals 2
(October of given year)
107
(as of October 2018)
(annual through 2013, then semiannual)
(as of October 2018)
0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9
0
2
4
6
8
15 16 17 181 2
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics Note: Hamilton condo rental data begins in October 2015.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
Rental Vacancy Rates
Hamilton(percent)
Apartments 1 Condominium Rentals 2
(October of given year)
108
1.1 1.21.8
1.31.8
1.0 0.7 0.70
2
4
6
8
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
Rental Vacancy Rates
Toronto(percent)
Apartments 1
1 2
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics(as of October 2018)(as of October 2018)
(annual through 2013, then semiannual)Condominium Rentals 2
(October of given year)
109
0
2
4
6
8
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Resale Condominium Vacancy Rate
Toronto
Listed Units as a Share of Total Units
Source: Urbanation Inc.
mean
(quarterly : percent : as of 2019:Q2)
110
0
20
40
60
80
100
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Resale Condominium Sales-to-Listings Ratio
Toronto
Source: Urbanation Inc.
mean
Sales as a Share of Listed Units
(quarterly : percent : as of 2019:Q2)
111
1.4
3.2 3.6
1.72.6
1.1
2.93.4
0
2
4
6
8
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
Rental Vacancy Rates
Ottawa(percent)
Apartments 1 Condominium Rentals 2
(October of given year)
1 2
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics(as of October 2018)(as of October 2018)
(annual through 2013, then semiannual)
112
2.8 2.7 2.73.4 3.0 3.1
1.8 1.9
0
2
4
6
8
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 181 2
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 93 98 03 08 13 18(as of October 2018)
Rental Vacancy Rates
Montreal(percent)
Apartments 1
(as of October 2018)
(annual through 2013, then semiannual)Condominium Rentals 2
(October of given year)
113
(as of October 2018)(as of October 2018)
(annual through 2013, then semiannual)
2.3 2.2
5.9
3.24.0
4.83.9
2.5
0
2
4
6
8
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 181 2
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
Rental Vacancy Rates
Quebec City(percent)
Apartments 1 Condominium Rentals 2
(October of given year)
114
(as of October 2018)(as of October 2018)
(annual through 2013, then semiannual)
1 2
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics Note: Halifax condo rental data begins in October 2016.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
3.8 3.9 4.1
0
2
4
6
8
16 17 18
Rental Vacancy Rates
Halifax(percent)
Apartments 1 Condominium Rentals 2
(October of given year)
115
Prices
+ Prices rising in most regions, with national benchmark up 0.9% y/y
+ Rising strongly in Ottawa (9.4%), Montreal (7.5%) and much of Southwestern Ontario
+ Toronto’s prices up 4.9%, led by condos
− Vancouver prices down 8.3% y/y, but slower rate of decline
− Oil provinces still down y/y but steadier of late
116
(as of August 2019)
-10
0
10
20
30
06 11 1650
100
150
200
250
05 10 151 2
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association(as of July 2019)
Prices
Canada(monthly)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
88 98 08 18
New HomePrice Index 2
(y/y % chng)
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(January 2005 = 100)
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(y/y % chng)
117
Prices
Vancouver
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
88 98 08 18
New HomePrice Index 2
(y/y % chng)
1 2
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(January 2005 = 100)
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(y/y % chng)
(monthly)
50
100
150
200
250
300
05 10 15-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
06 11 16(as of August 2019) (as of July 2019)
118
-20
0
20
40
60
80
06 11 16
Prices
Calgary
-20
0
20
40
60
80
88 98 08 18
New HomePrice Index 2
(y/y % chng)
1 2
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(January 2005 = 100)
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(y/y % chng)
(monthly)
50
100
150
200
250
05 10 15(as of August 2019) (as of July 2019)
119
(as of August 2019)1 2
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
05 10 15-20
0
20
40
60
80
06 11 16(as of July 2019)
-20
0
20
40
60
88 98 08 18
Prices
Edmonton
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(June 2005 = 100)
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(y/y % chng)
New HomePrice Index 2
(y/y % chng)
(monthly)
120
Prices
Regina
-10
0
10
20
30
40
88 98 08 18
New HomePrice Index 2
(y/y % chng)
1 2
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(January 2005 = 100)
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(y/y % chng)
(monthly)
50
100
150
200
250
300
05 10 15-20
0
20
40
60
80
06 11 16(as of August 2019) (as of July 2019)
121
-5
0
5
10
15
20
88 98 08 18-5
0
5
10
15
20
05 10 15(as of July 2019)1 2
Sources: Teranet/National Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
05 10 15(as of July 2019)
Prices
Winnipeg
Teranet HomePrice Index 1
(June 2005 = 100)
Teranet HomePrice Index 1
(y/y % chng)
New HomePrice Index 2
(y/y % chng)
(monthly)
122
(as of July 2019)(as of July 2019)
-505
1015202530
05 10 151 2
Sources: Teranet/National Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
50
100
150
200
250
05 10 15-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
88 98 08 18
Prices
Hamilton
Teranet HomePrice Index 1
(June 2005 = 100)
Teranet HomePrice Index 1
(y/y % chng)
New HomePrice Index 2
(y/y % chng)
(monthly)
123
Prices
Toronto
-40
-20
0
20
40
88 98 08 18
New HomePrice Index 2
(y/y % chng)
1 2
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(January 2005 = 100)
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(y/y % chng)
(monthly)
50
100
150
200
250
300
05 10 15-10
0
10
20
30
40
06 11 16(as of August 2019) (as of July 2019)
124
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Existing Single Family Home Prices
TorontoHome Price Index Benchmark – Existing Single Family
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
(C$ 000s : n.s.a.) (y/y % chng)
(monthly : as of August 2019)
125
-10
0
10
20
30
40
06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Existing Condominium Prices
TorontoHome Price Index Benchmark – Existing Condominiums
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
100
200
300
400
500
600
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
(C$ 000s : n.s.a.) (y/y % chng)
(monthly : as of August 2019)
126
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
08 10 12 14 16 18
2019:Q2 = 9.1% y/y
0
200
400
600
800
03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
New Condominium Prices
TorontoAverage Price per Square Foot
Source: Urbanation Inc.
Sold Unsold
(quarterly : C$ : as of 2019:Q2)
2019:Q2 = 9.5% y/y
127
(quarterly : C$ : as of 2019:Q2)
2019:Q2 = 4.1% y/y
0
200
400
600
800
03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Resale Condominium Prices
TorontoAverage PSF
Source: Urbanation Inc.
128
(as of July 2019)(as of August 2019)
Prices
Ottawa
-5
0
5
10
15
20
88 98 08 18
New HomePrice Index 2
(y/y % chng)
1 2
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(January 2005 = 100)
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(y/y % chng)
(monthly)
100
120
140
160
180
200
05 10 15-5
0
5
10
15
06 11 16
129
Prices
Montreal
-5
0
5
10
15
88 98 08 18
New HomePrice Index 2
(y/y % chng)
1 2
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(January 2005 = 100)
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(y/y % chng)
(monthly)
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
05 10 15-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
06 11 16(as of August 2019) (as of July 2019)
130
(as of July 2019)(as of July 2019)1 2
Sources: Teranet/National Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
-5
0
5
10
15
05 10 1580
100
120
140
160
180
200
05 10 15-5
0
5
10
15
88 98 08 18
Prices
Quebec City
Teranet HomePrice Index 1
(June 2005 = 100)
Teranet HomePrice Index 1
(y/y % chng)
New HomePrice Index 2
(y/y % chng)
(monthly)
131
(as of July 2019)(as of July 2019)1 2
Sources: Teranet/National Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
05 10 1580
100
120
140
160
05 10 15-5
0
5
10
15
88 98 08 18
Prices
Halifax
Teranet HomePrice Index 1
(June 2005 = 100)
Teranet HomePrice Index 1
(y/y % chng)
New HomePrice Index 2
(y/y % chng)
(monthly)
132
(as of August 2019) (as of July 2019)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
06 11 1650
100
150
200
250
05 10 15
Prices
Newfoundland & Labrador
-10
0
10
20
30
88 98 08 18
New HomePrice Index 2
(y/y % chng)
1 2
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
AverageHome Price 1
(s.a. : January 2005 = 100)
AverageHome Price 1
(n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
(monthly)
133
Valuation and Affordability
+ Valuations and affordability healthy in most regions
+ National prices between 3-to-4 times income outside Vancouver, Toronto, Victoria; normal
+ Outside Vancouver and Toronto, typical mortgage payment consumes less than one-fifth of median household income
− Vancouver and Toronto detached markets are well out-of-reach of typical family. But affordability improving in Vancouver due to lower prices
− Toronto condo market becoming less affordable, offset by some improvement in detached segment
134
(as of 2019:Q2)(as of 2019:Q2)
Sources: Statistics Canada, U.S. National Association of Realtors, Haver Analytics, CREA
33%
17%
7%10%
-25
0
25
50
88 93 98 03 08 13 181 Ratio of average existing home price to per-capita personal income (adjusted to make it more comparable to U.S. income; as a sum of household income, property
income and current transfers received, then divided by population age 15+), relative to long-term average;2 Ratio of median existing single-family house price to median family income, relative to long-term average;
(quarterly : ratio : s.a.)
House Price-to-Income Ratio relative to long-term Average
Valuation
Canada
overvalued
undervalued
UnitedStates 2
Canada 1
135
20192001 2005 2018 July- % chg since 2005Q4 Q1 Q3 Aug. Trend 2 Price
Vancouver 5.3 6.6 12.3 11.0 148 Toronto 4.2 5.0 9.0 9.2 143 Victoria 3.8 4.7 7.1 7.0 94 Canada ex Vancouver, Toronto 2.7 3.3 4.4 4.4 99 Montreal 2.4 3.3 4.1 4.3 107 Calgary 2.8 3.0 4.2 4.0 80 Ottawa 2.5 2.8 3.5 3.8 81 Halifax ³ 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.3 71 Winnipeg ³ 1.7 2.1 3.4 3.3 135 Saskatoon 2.1 2.1 3.0 2.9 140
(quarterly)
Price-to-Median Family Income Ratios 1
1 = median family income is estimated after using average annual growth in previous 10 years (for a house of average home price in 2004 or earlier, and HPI benchmark price after 2004) 2 = based on y/y change of latest quarter (flat if < ±0.1) 3 = average home price used onlySources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
Valuation
Regional
2017
136
39%
30%
26%
32%
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
(quarterly : % of household income : as of 2019:Q2)
Based on 25-year amortization, 5-year fixed rate with assumption about discount versus posted rate, average-priced house, down payment equal to half of annual income (about 10% today). Household income measured as personal income per labour force member.Sources: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
Average Mortgage Payments
Affordability
Canada
meanIf R2 ppt
137
Based on 25-year amortization, 5-year fixed rate with assumption about discount versus posted rate, down payment equal to half of annual income 1 (about 10% today) for a house of average home price in 2004 or earlier, and HPI benchmark price after 2004 1 = median family income is estimated after using average annual growth in previous 10 years 2 = average home price used only 3 = based on y/y change of latest quarter (flat if < ±1) 4 = weighted average house price used onlyShading denotes that housing costs consume more than 39% of income, assuming that 8% of income is needed to pay for property taxes, heating and condo fees. After July 2012, banks generally cannot provide an insured mortgage to potential buyers who breach this threshold.Sources: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association, FCIQ, BMO Capital Markets Economics estimates
2017
July-Aug. July-Aug.2001:Q4 2005:Q1 2018:Q3 2019 Trend 3 2019
Mortgage Rate 5.9% 4.9% 3.4% 2.7% If 4.7%Vancouver 37 42 70 57 70 Toronto 28 31 51 48 59 Victoria 25 29 39 35 44 Hamilton ² 17 19 33 31 39 Canada ex Vancouver, Toronto 16 19 23 21 26 Montreal 14 19 21 21 25 Calgary 17 17 22 19 24 Ottawa 15 16 18 18 22 Halifax ² 15 16 16 16 19 Winnipeg ² 9 11 17 15 19 Edmonton 13 13 16 14 17 Saskatoon 12 11 15 13 16 Quebec City ⁴ 10 12 14 13 16
Affordability
RegionalMortgage Payments as a % of Median Family Income 1 (quarterly)
138
(quarterly : % of household income : as of 2019:Q2)
60%
73%
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18Based on 25-year amortization, 5-year fixed rate with assumption about discount versus posted rate, down payment equal to half of annual income (about 10% today) on a house of average price (before 2005) or benchmark price (2005 onwards). Median family income is estimated after using average annual growth in previous 10 years. Sources: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association, BMO Capital Markets Economics estimates
Average Mortgage Payments
Affordability
Vancouver
mean
If R2 ppt
2017
139
37%
49%
60%
20
30
40
50
60
70
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18Based on 25-year amortization, 5-year fixed rate with assumption about discount versus posted rate, down payment equal to half of annual income (about 10% today) on a house of average price (before 2005) or benchmark price (2005 onwards). Median family income is estimated after using average annual growth in previous 10 years. Sources: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association, BMO Capital Markets Economics estimates
2017
(quarterly : % of household income : as of 2019:Q2)
Average Mortgage Payments
Affordability
Toronto
mean
If R2 ppt
140
July-Aug. July-Aug.2005:Q1 2018:Q3 2019 Trend 2 2019
Mortgage Rate 4.9% 3.4% 2.7% If 4.7%
Vancouver – Single Family 61 102 83 102
Vancouver – Single Family 1-Storey 48 82 66 81
Toronto – Single Family 35 58 53 66
Toronto – Single Family 1-Storey 31 50 47 58
Vancouver – Condo 26 44 37 45
Toronto – Condo 19 32 32 39
Affordability
Vancouver and Toronto
Mortgage Payments as a % of Median Family Income 1
Worth noting is that the median income of families owning detached properties is well above that of the median income of all households, according to the 2011 National Household Survey, suggesting that the detached market is more affordable than implied by our measure.Based on 25-year amortization, 5-year fixed rate with assumption about discount versus posted rate, benchmark house price, down payment equal to half of annual income 1 (about 10% today); MLS benchmark home price used after 2004, average price used otherwise.1 = median family income is estimated after using average annual growth in previous 10 years 2 = based on y/y change of latest quarter (flat if < ±1)Shading denotes that housing costs consume more than 39% of income, assuming that 8% of income is needed to pay for property taxes, heating and condo fees. After July 2012, banks generally cannot provide an insured mortgage to potential buyers who breach this threshold.Sources: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association, BMO Capital Markets Economics estimates
(quarterly)
2017
141
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