Can I Test More Than One Variable at a Time? Statisticians answer some of the most commonly asked...

Can I Test More Than One Variable at a Time? Statisticians answer some of the most commonly asked A/B testing questions

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Confusion around online testing

• Designing and managing

experiments is listed as the

most significant challenge

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Today’s Team

Bob KemperSenior Director, Sciences

As Senior Director of Sciences, Bob manages enterprise experimentation and discovery processes for the corporation and for the individual operating companies. He serves on the Curriculum and Alumni boards for the Executive MBA program of the Davis College of Business at Jacksonville University, and on the board of the Jacksonville chapter of the National Association of Business Economists (NABE).

Today’s Team

Benjamin FilipManager, Data Sciences

Ben participates in high-level marketing analytics and optimization including profit analysis, data mining, customer profile analysis and Web metrics analysis to determine visitor behaviors in online marketing funnels.

Today’s Team

Paul CheneyEditorial Analyst

Paul works directly with Flint McGlaughlin to study, manage and catalogue the MECLABS library of case studies and experiments. Essentially, he spends most of his day scouring over reports and data from the experiments that come through the lab.

Today, we are going to answer some of the most common questions marketers ask about online testing.

QUESTION #1: Can I test more than one variable at a time?

How many variables were changed?Treatment

Logo

Logo

Logo

Control

Logo

increase in conversion Through a more professional design and a clearer process, the treatment generated 58% more conversions.

58%

LogoControl

LogoTreatment

How many variables were changed?

increase in conversion By clarifying the value, reducing friction and mitigating anxiety, the treatment produced 262% more leads.

262%

How many variables were changed?Control Treatment

increase in conversion By clarifying the value proposition and simplifying the form, the treatment generated 189% more leads.

189%

QUESTION #1: Can I test more than one variable at a time?

When to test more than one variable

Radical Redesigns: The objective is to challenge the control enough to generate a significant difference

Focused variable clusters: The objective is to test the highest performing variables and increase channel specificity

Single variable testing: The objective is to determine relative impact by isolating variables.

Optimal Testing Cycle

What you need to understand

1. We should design our tests so they are useful.

2. A variable can be anything the test designer defines.

3. First, define variables that test the category to “get in the zone.”

4. From there, focus on relative impact of individual page elements.

QUESTION #2: What is multivariate testing and when should I use it?

Definition: Multivariate testing

Multivariate TestingA number of approaches for the simultaneous testing of multiple factors (variables), each having two or more possible levels (values) to determine which composite treatment (combination of factor values) yields the best overall performance.

Value 1 of 4

Value 1 of 4

Value 1 of 4

Value 1 of 4

Value 1 of 4

Value 1 of 4

Value

1 of 4

Value 1 of 4

Value 1 of 4

Value 1 of 4Value 1 of 4

Value 1 of 4

Value 1 of 4


Value 1 of 4

Value 1 of 4


Value 1 of 4

Value 1 of 4


Value 1 of 4

Value 1 of 4


Value 1 of 4

Value 1 of 2


Variable

Variable

Variable• Each combination is

presented to a portion of arriving traffic.

• The best combination is detected.

• Other insights about the relative ‘importance’ and ‘variable interaction’ are also possible.

1. Multivariate testing (in marketing) is simply an automated way to run many A/B

tests at once.

2. Consider using multivariate testing when:

• You have a large amount of traffic.

• You can interpret complicated test results.

• You have the time to run a longer test.

• You have already tested your way into the best offer category.


QUESTION #3: How do I test if I have low traffic?

1. Testing with lower traffic levels will always require a trade-off between time,

budget or certainty.

2. With that in mind, there are a few potential ways you can solve the low traffic

problem:

• Test in the channel.

• Lower your desired level of confidence.

• Design more radical treatments.


QUESTION #4: How do I determine what to test?

How do you determine what to test?

Using a clear optimization and testing strategy is the least popular method for determining what to test.

QUESTION #4: How do I determine what to test?

Where to test in a path?

The Channel (Ocnn)

The Presentation(Oprn)

The Product Offer(Opr)

Opr > Oprn > Ocnn

Wherein:

Opr = Optimization of Product Offer

Oprn = Optimization of Presentation

Ocnn = Optimization of Channel

What to test on a page?

Wherein:“C” = Probability of conversion

“m” = Motivation of user

“v” = Force of the value proposition

“i” = Incentive (additional) to take action

“f” = Friction elements present

“a” = Anxiety elements present

C = 4m + 3v + 2(i - f) - 2a ©

Background: A website that sells retail and wholesale collector items.

Goal: To increase conversion rate.

Primary Research Question: Which version of the second step in the conversion funnel will produce the highest conversion rate?

Approach: A/B variable cluster split test that focused on reducing anxiety through credibility indicators, copy and re-organization of existing page elements.

Experiment ID: (Protected)Location: MarketingExperiments Research LibraryTest Protocol Number: TP1305

Research Notes:

Experiment: Background

• When we analyzed the metrics, we realized there were leaks throughout the checkout process. The credit card submission page stood out as a low cost opportunity for immediate return.

• When we analyzed the metrics even further, we saw this step also had the highest lost revenue per cart (more than double any other step).

• From this, we hypothesized optimizing this step would have the highest potential return on our efforts.

Fallout Report: New Customers

Experiment: Background

What might be causing the fallout?

• It is unclear why the credit card is required when payment method is different.

• The complexity of the Purchase Agreement Terms causes confusion and concern.

• There is no indication that the credit card information is secure.

Control

Experiment: Control

C = 4m + 3v + 2(i - f) - 2a ©

How we addressed the issues:

• Third-party security indicators have been added.

• Clearer explanation of why a credit card is required and that it will not be charged.

• “Satisfaction Guaranteed” promise is emphasized.

Treatment

Experiment: Treatment

C = 4m + 3v + 2(i - f) - 2a ©

Design Conversion Rate

Control 82.33%

Treatment 86.04%

Relative Difference 4.51%

5% Increase in Total ConversionThe new credit card page increased conversion by 4.51%

What you need to understand: While it might seem like a small increase, choosing this specific step in the sales funnel to test resulted in a projected $500,000+ increase in revenue per year. This underscores the potential impact of a properly identified research question.

Experiment: Results

1. Knowing where to test requires knowing your data.

• As a general rule, you can use: Opr > Oprn > Ocnn

2. Knowing what to test requires a systematic methodology.

• As a general rule, you can use: C = 4m + 3v + 2(i-f) - 2a


QUESTION #5: How do I know my test is valid?

How do I know my test is valid?

• Only 15% of marketers monitor test validity.

QUESTION #5: How do I know my test is valid?

1. Use a standardized statistical method for determining validity.

2. There are four main validity threats marketers should be conscious of when testing:

a. Sample Distortion

b. Selection Effect

c. History Effect

d. Instrumentation Effect

3. Beware of only relying on a testing tool for validity.


QUESTION #6: When should I stop a test?

When to stop a testLe

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on

fid

ence

Samples Collected

Stop Test Here

95%

Required Samples

1. It is safe to stop a test when your data meet two criteria:

a) Sufficient sample size

b) Desired level of confidence


QUESTION #7: What is the best testing tool?

5 Factors to Consider

1. Budget

2. Testing objectives

3. Flexibility

4. Ease of use

5. In-house expertise


Consider 5 factors when evaluating testing platforms:

a) Budget

b) Testing objectives

c) Flexibility

d) Ease of use

e) In-house expertise

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Can I Test More Than One Variable at a Time? Statisticians answer some of the most commonly asked...

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