California has 5 water year types: 1 card = 1 water year• Critically dry and dry years: Ace-10 black cards • Normal-wet years: all red cards & all face cards• Joker represents an extreme event• Dry period: 2 or more black cards Ace to 10

• Shuffle your deck and deal cards 1 at a time. Count• # dry periods• Length of longest dry period• Did extreme event occur during a dry period?

Climate Variability vs Climate Change Card

Game

Example

• Dry period: 2 or more black cards Ace to 10• # dry periods• Length of longest dry period• Did extreme event occur during a dry period?

Climate Variability vs Climate Change Card

Game

3 dry yearswith extreme

event

4 wet yearswith extreme

event

2 dry years

Lessons Learned Climate Variability vs Climate Change Card

Game

• Current climate and future modified climate are both highly variable

• Each “sample” gave a different result• An increased probability of dry conditions

did not guarantee dry conditions • Several “samples” are needed to understand

possible trends