Calculating Absorption Rates
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Transcript of Calculating Absorption Rates
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Tuesday,June 3, 2014
CHAMBERSBURG SALES MEETING
06/03/2014
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Best of the Hotline
APPRAISAL CONTINGENCY
06/03/2014
James Goldsmith, Esq.Caldwell & Kearns
General Legal CounselPennsylvania Association of REALTORS®
www.PARJustListed.com
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In mortgage transactions, when working with the buyer, always check the Appraisal Contingency Addendum box in the Agreement of Sale
APPRAISAL CONTINGENCY
06/03/2014
X
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Always check the box next to ‘The Purchase Price’
APPRAISAL CONTINGENCY
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X
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Real life bad examples:
“Portion of roof to be replaced.”
SPECIAL CLAUSES
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Does your special clause answer the four questions:• Who is to perform?• What is to be done?• Who is to pay?• Time frame to perform?
SPECIAL CLAUSES
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When in doubt, have someone else read your special clause.
SPECIAL CLAUSES
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DO YOU KNOW YOUR MARKET?
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1. In the month of April ‘14, what percentage of homes were purchased with cash in Franklin County?
A. 7%
B. 9%
C. 13%
D. 23%
MARKET QUIZ
06/03/2014
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2. In the month of April ‘14, what was the average length of time a property took to go under contract in Franklin County?
A. 62 days
B. 92 days
C. 132 days
D. 152 days
MARKET QUIZ
06/03/2014
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3. What was the median SOLD price in Franklin County in April ‘14?
A. $150,000
B. $140,000
C. $130,000
D. $120,000
MARKET QUIZ
06/03/2014
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4. How does the listing inventory of homes compare from April ‘13 to April ‘14 in Franklin County?
A. +17%
B. +7%
C. -7%
D. -17%
MARKET QUIZ
06/03/2014
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5. How does the number of settlements compare year-to-date from 2013 to 2014 in Franklin County?
A. -13.0%
B. -1.30%
C. +1.30%
D. +13.0%
MARKET QUIZ
06/03/2014
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6. What percentage of homes sell in Franklin County within 180 days of being listed?
A. 53%
B. 63%
C. 73%
D. 83%
MARKET QUIZ
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TIE BREAKER: What was the dollar volume (to the nearest $1,000) of residential real estate SOLD in Franklin County in April ’14?
$19,236,000
MARKET QUIZ
06/03/2014
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• Click ‘rbi Market Stats’ in MRIS
• Multiple uses: Listing presentations Item of value for past clients Absorption analysis
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MRIS MARKET REPORTS
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Ninety days ago you took a listing in _________ Township for $_______ which was within 5% of the value indicated in your CMA. You’ve completed all the marketing activities that a prudent real estate agent would perform but you’ve only had two showings on the property and no offers. Your seller is growing a little frustrated. What do you do?06/03/2014
LISTING DILEMMA
FOR SALE
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WEAKNESSES OF A CMA
• Does not show inventory levels
• Does not show whether prices are rising or falling
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THE INTERACTION OF . . .
SUPPLY DEMAND
2006/03/2014
PRICING STRATEGIES
ABSORPTION RATE ANALYSIS
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ONLINE RESOURCE
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CLICK ‘LEARN CENTER’
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• Web based training• Virtual instructor training• Designations and certifications• Independent study
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PROGRAM GUIDE
2014
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• Inventory – Total number of homes for sale within a defined market segment
• Absorption Rate – Rate at which homes will sell within a given period of time
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DEFINITIONS
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• The number of houses sold and closed in a particular time period – three months is preferred
• How many listings currently in the MLS
• Do not count under contract or pending – only settled
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CONSIDERATIONS
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It’s not that06/03/2014
ABSORPTION RATE FORMULA
difficult
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1. Closed Sales in 3 Months ÷ 3 Months = Monthly Absorption
2. Total Listings in MLS ÷ Monthly Absorption = Number of Months to Absorb Current Inventory
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ABSORPTION RATE FORMULA
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A thorough examination of the market determines that there have been 300 closed sales in the last 3 month. At the present time, there are 600 residential homes on the market. What is the absorption rate?
1. 300 sales ÷ 3 months = 100 homes selling per month
2. 600 homes in inventory ÷ 100 homes selling per month = 6 months of inventory on the market
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ABSORPTION RATE EXAMPLE
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ABSORPTION RATE SUMMARY
BUYER’S MARKETMore than 6 months
of inventory results in a downward pressure
on prices
SELLER’S MARKETLess than 6 months of inventory results in an
upward pressure on prices
BALANCED MARKET6 months of inventory
3006/03/2014
FRANKLIN COUNTYABSORPTION ANALYSIS – APRIL 2014
0 - $49.9K $50K - $99.9K
$100K - $149.9K
$150K - $199.9K
$200K - $299.9K
$300K - $399.9K
$400K +0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
3.0
5.2
10.7
7.7
14.8
81.0
15.1
Mon
ths I
nven
tory
Price Range
Buyer’s MarketPrices are Decreasing
Seller’s MarketPrices are Increasing
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• Jeff Culler
• Bobbi Washabaugh
• Jason Rugh
APPLAUSE – APPLAUSE!!!
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PROPERTY/NEEDS EXCHANGE
06/03/2014
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• Tomorrow morning – June 4th
• Breakfast will be served from 8:30-10:00 AM by Chef Tom
• Pick-up your Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices goodie bag Business cards Name badge Name riders Assorted ‘stuff’
BH KICK-OFF BREAKFAST
06/03/2014