C. Drews, L. Hawkes, N. Bood and J. Hoffman

WWF - Programa Marino y de Especies

para Latinoamérica y el Caribe

Climate change challenges to marine ecosystems in the Western Hemisphere

Methane load of the atmosphere

WHMSI III - Asunción 2008

The good news: The good news: Conservation works!Conservation works!

……well, does it really?well, does it really?

… … a matter of time-scale …a matter of time-scale …

……well, does it really?well, does it really?

… … a matter of time-scale …a matter of time-scale …

Climate Change - how does it affect Climate Change - how does it affect marine biodiversity?marine biodiversity?

• Increasing ambient and SST• Sea level rise• Acidification, salinity changes and O2

• Alterations in oceanic currents• Intensity and frequency of extreme weather events

– (e.g. rainfall, drought, storms and hurricanes)• (UV radiation via link with temperature) - JENNY

Iguazu - WWF Carlos Drews

Proyecciones regionales (IPCC)

Figure

Figure 11.15

Annual mean, DJF and JJA temp and precipitation change between 1980 to 1999 and 2080 to 2099

A CLIMATE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN

Annual precipitation

Source: Hulme & Sheard 1999 WWF and CRU

Even if the world community succeeds in reducing CO2 emissions from 2015 onwards, ocean levels will rise by between 0.40 to 1.40 meters, maybe not in the 21st century, but a bit later.

IPCC head Rajendra Pachauri, Spiegel, 19 November, 2007

Cancún - desde 57 km

2 m - aumento del nivel del mar en Cancún - desde 57 km

2 m - aumento del nivel del mar en Yucatán - desde 587 km

Source: Holland & Webster 2007

Impacts of climate change

- Fish

- Coral reefs

- Marine turtles

-Changes in abundance and Changes in abundance and distribution distribution

- Some tropical waters - Some tropical waters empoverished empoverished

What are the impacts on fish?What are the impacts on fish?

Implications to food security and coastal economies.

Present: SBT, CSIRO Mk3

Slide by Alistair Hobday - CSIRO

2100: SBT, CSIRO Mk3

Slide by Alistair Hobday - CSIRO

Source: Cesar, Burke & Pet-Soede 2003 (WWF-ICRAN) Economics of reef degradation.

Source: Cesar, Burke & Pet-Soede 2003.

Warmer SST - impacts to coral reefs

WWF / Cat Holloway

WWF / Melanie McField

2005• Hottest year since

records (1880)• Record: hurricane

frequency (13) and intensity (Wilma)

• 50-100% bleaching• Disease followed

bleaching• Mortality: US Virgin

Islands 52%, T&T 73% in some colonies

The future• Unknown increase in

thermal tolerance

• “Committed” thermal stress next 20-30 years

• Optimistic forecast: low intensity bleaching (> 2oC

DHM) every 2 years by 2050s.

• Annual severe bleaching if business as usual

Source: Wilkinson & Souter 2008

• More intense storms

Observed climate change impacts in Belize

Hurricane Iris 2000

Elevated sea temperatures = bleaching

Climate change impacts in Belize

Southern lagoon reef 1998 Reef death in 1998 (95%)

• Flooding with damage to properties

Climate change impacts in Belize

The cost of inaction

• Overall, in the Caribbean, climate change is predicted to cause an annual loss of US$ 109.9 million in terms of increased sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise and loss of species among others, which equates to 13.8% of the total GDP

Source: Tol, R.S.J. (1997) A Decision-Analytic Treatise of the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect. PhD Thesis, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

Money talks: how much is a Money talks: how much is a marine turtle worth?marine turtle worth?

A marine turtle is worth more alive than deadA marine turtle is worth more alive than dead

NON- CONSUMPTIVE USENON- CONSUMPTIVE USECONSUMPTIVE USECONSUMPTIVE USE

By Sebastian Troëng and Carlos Drews (2004)By Sebastian Troëng and Carlos Drews (2004)

Marine turtle tourism in the Western Hemisphere

• Barbados, Brazil, Cayman Islands, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Grenada, Guyana, Mexico, Panama, Puerto Rico, St Lucia, St Vincent, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago, USA (Florida), …

• 15 nations, at least 50 sites, and increasing …

Healthy EcosystemHealthy Ecosystem

Vital EconomyVital Economy

Social Well-BeingSocial Well-Being

FinancialFinancial

PoliticalPolitical

SocialSocialHumanHuman

BuiltBuilt

NaturalNatural

CulturalCultural

•Two thirds of countries with developing economies have marine turtles

•175,000 turtle tourists / year, 175,000 turtle tourists / year, more than 90 sites in more than 40 countries.

• 2002 - US$ 6.7 mio in Tortuguero (235 2002 - US$ 6.7 mio in Tortuguero (235 guides, 26.292 visitors)guides, 26.292 visitors)

• 1,280 employees (60% female) in Brazil by 1,280 employees (60% female) in Brazil by Projeto TAMAR Projeto TAMAR (merchandizing & tourism)(merchandizing & tourism)

• Gross revenue 3 x higher for use of turtle Gross revenue 3 x higher for use of turtle alive than deadalive than dead

Marine turtles: a driver of cash incomeMarine turtles: a driver of cash income

BEACHES - a prime asset for tourism

Myrtle Beach - WWF Carlos Drews

Marejada en Junquillal - WWF/ Gabriel Francia

25oC

27oC

34oC

32oC

29oC

Temperature Sex Determination

Climate change causes sex ratio biases and mortalityClimate change causes sex ratio biases and mortality

Época seca

Predicción del porcentaje de sexos en

los diferentes puntos

Más machos

Más hembras

100 % hembras

Desnaturalización de los huevos

WWF Carlos Drews

Fuente: Micaela Peña-Mosquera 2006

Third generation conservation

- Threats are “God given” agents

- New challenges / knowledge / capacity gaps

- Resilience: a new perspective on mitigation of non-climate stressors

- Adapting people and ecosystems to the inevitable

- Crystal ball driven