By: Nan Shellabarger Date: February 28, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration FAA 2006-2017 Forecast.
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Transcript of By: Nan Shellabarger Date: February 28, 2006 Federal Aviation Administration FAA 2006-2017 Forecast.
By: Nan Shellabarger
Date: February 28, 2006
Federal AviationAdministrationFAA 2006-2017
Forecast
FAA 2006-2017 Forecast2Federal Aviation
AdministrationFebruary 28, 2006
Agenda
• 2005 Review • Assumptions• Forecast Overview
FAA 2006-2017 Forecast3Federal Aviation
AdministrationFebruary 28, 2006
Review of 2005• Traffic growth strong
• RPMs up 8.0%– Domestic +6.9%, International + 11.6%
• Passengers up 7.1%– Domestic +6.6%, International + 12.1%
• Real yield decline• Domestic down 4.8%• International up 1.1%
• Workload Growth• En-Route Traffic up 2.8%
– Commercial + 3.7%, Non Commercial + 0.3%• Tower Ops down 0.1%
– Commercial +3.7%, Non Commercial - 2.6%– OEP 35 Commercial + 3.9%
FAA 2006-2017 Forecast4Federal Aviation
AdministrationFebruary 28, 2006
Assumptions 2006-17
• External Environment– Economic growth about 3% per year– Higher Oil Prices in near term
• Industry – Domestic capacity shrinks in FY 2006
• DL and NW in bankruptcy – shrink 10% to 20%• AA, US announced reductions
– RJ fleet growth slows in near term• Production of 50 seat RJs stopped• At least 107 aircraft to be grounded in FY 2006• Significant 70/90 seat aircraft demand
FAA 2006-2017 Forecast5Federal Aviation
AdministrationFebruary 28, 2006
Domestic Capacity Trends
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
Jan-
05
Feb-
05
Mar
-05
Apr
-05
May
-05
Jun-
05
Jul-0
5
Aug
-05
Sep
-05
Oct
-05
Nov
-05
Dec
-05
Jan-
06
Feb-
06
Mar
-06
Apr
-06
May
-06
Jun-
06
Jul-0
6
Month
Y/Y
Ch
g
Departures Seats ASMs
Current
Source: Official Airline Guide (OAG)
FAA 2006-2017 Forecast6Federal Aviation
AdministrationFebruary 28, 2006
Assumptions 2006-17 cont.
• Industry– Domestic Yield
• Increases in 2006, then resumes long run decline– Y/Y turned positive in May 2005 and is increasing
– Tight capacity with current demand => prices up
– Competition and productivity increases drive long term decline
– Load factor increasing• Domestic above 78% by 2017• International approaching 80% by 2017
FAA 2006-2017 Forecast7Federal Aviation
AdministrationFebruary 28, 2006
Domestic Yield Trends
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%Ja
n-04
Mar
-04
May
-04
Jul-0
4
Sep
-04
Nov
-04
Jan-
05
Mar
-05
May
-05
Jul-0
5
Sep
-05
Nov
-05
Jan-
06
Month
Y/Y
Ch
g
Monthly 12 Month Ending
Current
Source: Air Transport Association (ATA)
FAA 2006-2017 Forecast8Federal Aviation
AdministrationFebruary 28, 2006
Forecast Overview FY 2006-17
• Slow growth in 2006, rebound in 2007, return to historical trends after that
• Demand continues to grow• Passengers: +3.1% per year
– Domestic +2.9%, International + 5.0%
• RPMs: +4.1% per year– Domestic +3.6%, International + 5.5%
• Load Factor Higher• Domestic: 78.1% in 2017
• International: 79.4% in 2017
• Aircraft size continues to shrink• Domestic seats/mile falls until 2011
FAA 2006-2017 Forecast9Federal Aviation
AdministrationFebruary 28, 2006
Forecast Overview FY 2006-17
• Real Yield continues long term decline• Domestic: - 0.8% per year• International: -0.8% per year
• Cargo continues to grow• System 5.2% per year; Domestic 3.2%, International 6.3%
• General Aviation fleet and activity rising• New products stimulate growth
• Workload continues to increase• En-Route Aircraft Handled + 3.0% per year
– Commercial + 3.2%, Non-Commercial + 2.4%
• Tower Ops: + 2.0% per year– Commercial +2.4%, Non-Commercial + 1.8%
FAA 2006-2017 Forecast10Federal Aviation
AdministrationFebruary 28, 2006
System Enplanements
600,000
650,000700,000
750,000800,000
850,000
900,000950,000
1,000,0001,050,000
1,100,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Fiscal Year
En
pla
nem
ents
(00
0)
FY 06 Fcst FY 05 Fcst
Current
2005-2006: 0.3%
2006-2007: 3.9%
2007-2017: 3.4%
Actual Forecast
FAA 2006-2017 Forecast11Federal Aviation
AdministrationFebruary 28, 2006
System Enplanements
0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000
1,000,0001,100,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Fiscal Year
En
pla
nem
en
ts (
000)
Mainline Dom Regional Dom International
Actual Forecast
2005-17 Avg. Annual Growth
Mainline Domestic: 2.5%
Regional Domestic: 4.2%
International: 5.0%
FAA 2006-2017 Forecast12Federal Aviation
AdministrationFebruary 28, 2006
System Revenue Passenger Miles
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
1,300,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Fiscal Year
RP
Ms
(Mil.
)
FY 06 Fcst FY 05 Fcst
Current
2005-2006: 1.5%
2006-2007: 4.8%
2007-2017: 4.3%
Actual Forecast
FAA 2006-2017 Forecast13Federal Aviation
AdministrationFebruary 28, 2006
System Revenue Passenger Miles
0
300,000
600,000
900,000
1,200,000
1,500,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Fiscal Year
RP
Ms (
Mil
.)
Mainline Dom Regional Dom International
Actual Forecast
2005-17 Avg. Annual Growth
Mainline Domestic: 3.1%
Regional Domestic: 6.7%
International: 5.5%
FAA 2006-2017 Forecast14Federal Aviation
AdministrationFebruary 28, 2006
System Load Factor
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
8020
00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Fiscal Year
L.F
. (%
)
FY 06 Fcst FY 05 Fcst
Current
2005-2006: 0.5 Points
2006-2007: 0.2 Points
2007-2017: 0.1 Points
Actual Forecast
FAA 2006-2017 Forecast15Federal Aviation
AdministrationFebruary 28, 2006
Domestic Aircraft Size
116
118
120
122
124
126
128
13020
00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Fiscal Year
Sea
ts/M
ile
FY 06 Fcst FY 05 Fcst
Current
2005-2006: -1.4 Seats
2006-2007: -0.6 Seats
2007-2017: 0.1 Seats
Actual Forecast
FAA 2006-2017 Forecast16Federal Aviation
AdministrationFebruary 28, 2006
Domestic Real Yield
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
14.00
15.00
16.00
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Fiscal Year
20
04
Ce
nts
Pe
r R
PM
FY 06 Fcst FY 05 Fcst
Current
2005-2006: 0.4%
2006-2007: -1.0%
2007-2017: -0.9%
Actual Forecast
FAA 2006-2017 Forecast17Federal Aviation
AdministrationFebruary 28, 2006
Cargo RTMs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Fiscal Year
RT
Ms i
n B
illi
on
s
Domestic International
Actual Forecast
2005-17 Avg. Annual Growth
Domestic: 3.2%
International: 6.3%
FAA 2006-2017 Forecast18Federal Aviation
AdministrationFebruary 28, 2006
Total General Aviation Fleet
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Fiscal Year
Air
cra
ft(0
00)
FY 06 Fcst FY 05 Fcst2005-2006: 1.0%
2006-2007: 1.8%
2007-2017: 1.4%
Actual Forecast
FAA 2006-2017 Forecast19Federal Aviation
AdministrationFebruary 28, 2006
Total General Aviation Flight Hours
24,000
27,000
30,000
33,000
36,000
39,000
42,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Fiscal Year
Fli
gh
t H
ou
rs(0
00)
FY 06 Fcst FY 05 Fcst2005-2006: 2.5%
2006-2007: 3.1%
2007-2017: 3.2%
Actual Forecast
FAA 2006-2017 Forecast20Federal Aviation
AdministrationFebruary 28, 2006
General Aviation Flight Hours
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Fiscal Year
Fli
gh
t H
ou
rs (
000)
Piston Turbine
Actual Forecast
2005-17 Avg. Annual Growth
Piston: 1.8%
Turbine: 6.4%
FAA 2006-2017 Forecast21Federal Aviation
AdministrationFebruary 28, 2006
En-Route Aircraft Handled
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Fiscal Year
A/C
Han
dle
d (
000)
FY 06 Fcst FY 05 Fcst
Current
2005-2006: -0.6%
2006-2007: 2.7%
2007-2017: 3.4%
Actual Forecast
FAA 2006-2017 Forecast22Federal Aviation
AdministrationFebruary 28, 2006
FAA and Contract Tower Operations
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Fiscal Year
Op
erat
ion
s (0
00)
FY 06 Fcst FY 05 Fcst
Current
2005-2006: -0.4%
2006-2007: 2.7%
2007-2017: 2.2%
Actual Forecast
FAA 2006-2017 Forecast23Federal Aviation
AdministrationFebruary 28, 2006
Forecast Risks
• Terror attacks/Pandemic• Impact of high oil prices• Mainline carrier financial woes• Growth of VLJ’s and impact on workload• Sufficient Capacity
FAA 2006-2017 Forecast24Federal Aviation
AdministrationFebruary 28, 2006
Forecast Summary
• Slow growth in 2006, rebound in 2007, return to historical rates afterwards
• Demand continues to grow in line with economy
• Real yield continues to fall• Aircraft continue to get smaller• Workload gets higher